Trump is desperate for a big win after the Iran debacle

If there’s one big no-no in international diplomatic negotiations, it’s for one of the players to physically threaten the envoys. The negotiators are there to try to reach an agreement, so when they are threatened with death by the leader of the opposing side, it can be a bit of a poison pill. But such rules are designed for mature adults who understand how international relations work. America, unfortunately, has a leader who sees the world through the lens of gangster movies and can’t keep his mouth shut. 

We saw this illustrated over the weekend when President Donald Trump threatened the Iranian envoys in Switzerland with death if the Islamic Republic closed the Strait of Hormuz again, which the country had threatened to do if Israel did not stop bombing Lebanon. The president issued the warning in his usual classy fashion: “You close it and you won’t have a country. You won’t even make it back to your f**king country.” 

For the record, the first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding he and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed reads: 

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

By failing to enlist Israel in the agreement — and by threatening the use of force against Iran — it would appear the United States violated its terms. (Trump also threatened to take the Strait himself and charge fees for a profit. There’s bad faith, and then there’s bad faith.)

But then, as everyone has learned, the president tends to talk a big game; he is only willing to bluster and bomb to the point where it costs him something, and then he backs down. Case in point: Following Trump’s threat, the Iranian delegation briefly left the talks, but they returned after being reassured he wasn’t serious. 

As the smoke from the agreement clears, a consensus has emerged — even among MAGA media, as Salon’s Sophia Tesfaye has explained — that the U.S. has suffered a profound defeat. This is largely because Trump had no strategy beyond assuming that bombing Iran and killing some members of the nation’s leadership would instantly lead to unconditional surrender and new leadership, which would then welcome Western businesses eager to build resorts on the Strait of Hormuz. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently assumed that once Trump was committed to the war, he would not back off and would instead escalate as necessary to achieve the goal of regime change. Neither of them understood who and what they were dealing with, and the result is that the U.S. is weaker, Iran is stronger and Israel is even more isolated.

With peace talks having concluded in Switzerland, American delegation’s leader, Vice President JD Vance, proclaimed them a “successful foundation” for a comprehensive agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced waivers so that Iran could immediately resume selling its oil. But will any of this really mean anything? Both the U.S. and Iran know that, at this point, neither country’s signature on a treaty is worth the paper it’s printed on. 

For his part, Trump has already declared victory. He is clearly eager to move on from what is undoubtedly the worst foreign policy failure of his presidency — and one of the worst in U.S. history. But since his psyche is so fragile, he will not be able to admit that to himself. Trump will need to bag himself a “win” as soon as possible to erase his defeat in the minds of the MAGA faithful — and to quiet the voices in his head screaming that he has screwed up once again. 

So, what’s next on the president’s list? Well, it’s pretty clear that it’s going to be Cuba. He’s been talking about the communist nation quite a bit lately, even telling reporters in March, “I do believe I’ll have the honor of taking Cuba,” and asserting “I can do anything I want” with the country. He clearly sees it as an easy victory. 

As Salon’s Andrew O’Hehir pointed out in an historical analysis of the Cuba-America dynamic, “Miami-expat monomania remains a curiously powerful force within Republican politics,” and Trump is a Florida man now. He is also listening to his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose politics were fermented in that anti-communist petri dish — and who tells him that this one will be easy. One can’t help but wonder if, after the Iran mess, Trump is listening to anyone who tells him that these days. But he will likely take the country because he knows that Cuba is no Iran. It truly doesn’t have any “cards” to play, and its people are currently being starved by the siege being waged by the U.S.

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And let’s talk about beachfront property: Nothing would thrill Trump more than to fulfill the Mafia dream of a gambling resort on the island 90 miles off the coast of Florida without all those pesky laws and regulations. He saw “The Godfather Part II,” and he knows he could pull it off, unlike those losers JFK and Michael Corleone.

If he does, it’s pretty clear that he’ll anoint Rubio as his successor, even over his own vice president. (Vance made the mistake of being right about Iran, which Trump will find unforgivable.) According to “Regime Change,” the new book by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, when Trump was asked if he thought his successor would keep all the gilt trappings in the Oval Office, he replied, “Cubans like gold.” Rubio, it appears, is already on track. 

But in the unlikely event that things don’t go well, Trump will need to find a win somewhere else. According to the New Yorker’s Ben Taub, the United States is still engaged in what the magazine calls the “ridiculous, deadly serious plan to take over Greenland.” They may have ways of doing it without a full invasion or a literal takeover of the country, but it’s pretty clear the latter is what Trump is really after. In his January interview with the New York Times, he said that it’s “psychologically important” for the United States to actually own the island. It’s very big, you see, especially on the map. 

Will he do it? Who knows. But at the recent G7 summit, Trump was caught on a hot mic, cryptically saying to European Council president António Costa, “You understand — Greenland.”