King Kaufman

Will Yao pay off?

Will Golden State ever make a good choice? And other burning questions raised by the NBA draft.

By the time the Houston Rockets took Yao Ming with the first pick in the draft Wednesday, so many words had been written speculating about whether the 7-foot-5, 260-pound center can succeed in the NBA that if they were strung together they’d reach around the world twice, or around Yao once.

I don’t want to say that Yao is big, folks, but when he walks into the Compaq Center, the Rockets’ home arena, next season, people are going to say, “Hey, that guy’s really big.”

But seriously, ladies and germs, why does most, if not all, of the speculation about Yao fall along the lines of “Yao will be the next Hakeem Olajuwon,” the former Rockets great, or “Yao will be the next Shawn Bradley,” the 7-6 lurch who in nine seasons in Philadelphia, New Jersey and Dallas has never done anything to advance the idea that guys 7 and 1/2 feet tall are an asset to a basketball team?

Couldn’t it be possible that he’ll be somewhere in between? By all accounts, he’s got pretty good skills, but we just don’t know yet how he’ll stack up against the banging of other NBA centers. My guess, based on pretty much nothing other than reading between the lines of the reports of those who have seen him, is that he will fall somewhere in the middle of that Olajuwon-Bradley spectrum. I don’t think he’ll be the franchise player the Rockets are hoping for, but I do think he’ll be a good player.

I also think his ties to the Chinese national team will become a problem at some point, despite this week’s everything’s A-OK reports by the Rockets that they’ve reached an agreement with the Chinese Federation. The person to listen to here is Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks, who is portrayed as a lunatic by the media but who has a tendency to make a lot of sense when he’s serious. Speaking before the Rockets reached an agreement with the Chinese Federation, Cuban, who employs backup center Wang Zhizhi, also a member of the Chinese national team, said, “The best advice I can give is that just when you thought you had all your bases covered, you never do.”

So I think the Rockets will eventually be sorry they used the first pick on Yao, that he’ll be more Michael Olowokandi than Tim Duncan — serviceable, not great. But once they expressed an interest in him, the Rockets were stuck — their fans got excited, they got heavily into negotiations with the Chinese — and it’s certainly worth the gamble that Yao will turn into something special, which would mean an Ichiro-like figure and a lot of fan interest for what has been, except for the two years in the mid-’90s when Olajuwon led them to titles in a Jordan-less NBA, a pretty run-of-the-mill franchise in recent years.

A few other thoughts about draft night:

  • The NBA draft sure is a more entertaining show than the NFL draft, which every year is the most ponderous 467 hours of television imaginable. The NFL draft is two days’ worth of guys you never heard of and will never hear of again unless you’re a football junkie who mainlines Dr. Z. At least casual fans have heard of most of the guys who go in the first round of the NBA draft, and at least a good number of these guys are going to be playing and maybe even having an impact next season.

    Besides, it just moves faster. The first round takes about two hours, instead of all day. And you have Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith trading entertaining insults rather than all those NFL guys acting like they’re analyzing the invasion of Normandy.

  • One complaint about the annual draft show: It was in New York again this year. Why? I know the NBA offices are in New York, but so what? The league has branch offices in 26 other cities. Why not keep moving the draft around, let fans of teams other than the Knicks and, to a lesser extent, the Nets, have a chance to yell and boo and act like yahoos? New York and New Jersey should each host it once every three decades or so.
  • A prediction: The Golden State Warriors made a mistake taking small forward Mike Dunleavy of Duke with the third pick. Nothing against Dunleavy, but the Warriors always make some kind of mistake with their lottery pick, and there’s no reason to believe they’re going to stop now.

    Dunleavy seems like a nice enough guy, so here’s hoping for his sake that the Warriors’ error will be along the lines of the one they made with Chris Webber, whom they stupidly traded away, rather than the one they made with — oh, who should I pick here? How about the granddaddy of them all — Joe Barry Carroll, whom they drafted with a first pick they’d obtained from Boston in a trade. For Robert Parish and the No. 3 pick, which became Kevin McHale! McHale and Parish anchored a dynasty in Boston with Larry Bird. Carroll earned the nickname “Joe Barely Cares” during his undistinguished career.

    Even if he hadn’t been taken by the Warriors, I’d be weighing in against Dunleavy going with the third pick. NBA types love his poise and smarts, not to mention the fact that his dad, a longtime coach, is an NBA type, but he looks to me like one of those guys who look great in college but never quite live up to their supposed potential in the pros.

    I would say the same thing about Kansas power forward Drew Gooden, but he got drafted No. 4 by Jerry West and the Memphis Grizzlies, and I don’t think I want to put my basketball smarts up against West’s. Cleverly, though, no matter how well Gooden plays, I can point back to that last sentence and say, “I told you so.”

  • I predict that the two big “slips” in this draft, the guys who will turn out to be bargains for having been drafted so low, will be power forward Chris Wilcox of Maryland, taken eighth by the Los Angeles Clippers, and small forward Caron Butler of Connecticut, picked 10th by the Miami Heat. Onstage, Butler, who overcame some teenage legal problems, wiped away his tears of joy at being drafted and said, “I went 10 in this draft and I felt like I was one of the top two players in this draft, so I’m gonna make ‘em pay for passing on me.”
  • I think he’s right, at least about that last part. Butler seemed like a pro player playing college ball. I think he’ll be even better in the NBA than he seemed to be at UConn, and he seemed pretty damn good at UConn. Wilcox is a superb athlete who was only a sophomore last year when he helped lead Maryland to the national championship, and he seemed to be improving by the minute.

    And speaking of that national championship, here’s another guy I think got drafted too low: Juan Dixon, the Terrapins point guard, who went to the Washington Wizards with the 17th pick. NBA types marked him down because he’s too “frail” at 6-3, 165 pounds and, I gather, because he stayed in college for four years, which only mediocrities do, you see.

    The 76ers have a 165-pound guard who’s not half bad. Dixon won’t be another Allen Iverson, but he’ll end up being better than the 17th best player who was drafted Wednesday.

    This story has been corrected since it was first published.

    The Year in Sanity: Jim Joyce

    His blown call cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game. But from the moment he realized his mistake, he was golden

    ** CORRECTS PERFECT GAME TO WEDNESDAY, NOT TUESDAY ** Home plate umpire Jim Joyce calls a strike during the first inning of a baseball game between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians in Detroit Thursday, June 3, 2010. Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga lost his bid for a perfect game with two outs in the ninth inning on a disputed call at first base by Joyce on Wednesday night. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)(Credit: Paul Sancya)

    Armando Galarraga was a journeyman Detroit Tigers right-hander who shocked the baseball world on June 2 by throwing a perfect game against the Cleveland Indians. Except, of course, the game wasn’t perfect, because with two outs in the ninth inning umpire Jim Joyce called Jason Donald of the Indians safe at first base when Donald clearly should have been called out to end the game.

    Galarraga responded with a you’ve got to be kidding me smile for the ages, then retired one more batter for a one-hit shutout. He later said he hadn’t argued because he was in shock.

    But it was Joyce’s response that turned this terrible tale into one that’s almost heart-warming. Not as heart-warming as a journeyman pitcher tossing a perfect game, mind you, but pretty toasty.

    Having asked to see the video replay after the game, an emotional Joyce spoke to reporters: “It was the biggest call of my career and I kicked it. I just cost that kid a perfect game,” he said. “I missed it from here to that wall. I had a great angle, and I missed the call.” He also asked to speak to Galarraga, apologized to him and hugged him. Offered the next day off by his superiors, Joyce declined, saying he was ready to face what he assumed would be a hostile reaction from the Detroit crowd.

    This eminently reasonable, grown-up reaction stood out because baseball umpires are ordinarily cloistered. They have what amounts to lifetime tenure. They don’t face reporters, rarely admit mistakes publicly and are not held accountable for their actions in any way that’s visible to the players or public. Don’t like that call? Replays showed the ump got it wrong? Tough.

    Galarraga said he’d forgiven the umpire, and Joyce’s response to his error has been widely praised beyond baseball. He’s become a go-to example of how to handle mistakes in politics, religion and — especially because his straight-forward behavior came in the midst of BP’s oil-spill debaclebusiness.

    Less than two weeks after the blown call, ESPN surveyed major league players for their opinions about umpires. Their overwhelming choice as the best in the business: Jim Joyce.

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    Why I’m against baseball’s instant replay

    The technology won't necessarily rob the game of heart, but it definitely won't fix what's wrong

    The Major League Baseball instant replay display is shown in the umpires room before the National League baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in Chicago, Illinois August 28, 2008. REUTERS/Steve Green/Pool (UNITED STATES)(Credit: Reuters)

    For the third straight baseball postseason, umpires have been making critical, high-profile mistakes in game after game, and there’s a growing drumbeat among media and fans that Major League Baseball has to do something about it. And not just any something, but one specific something: instant replay.

    The entire conversation about umpiring has been predicated on the assumption that the only solution to the problem is a technological one, which is fascinating — and maybe just a little troubling — because everyone in the conversation knows two things: There are acres of room for improvement that has nothing to do with technology, and the technology itself is far from perfect.

    We know from other sports, especially NFL football, that video replay is hardly perfect. Putting aside the unnecessarily long delays that accompany video replay in the NFL, it’s a simple fact about video that it does not always provide conclusive evidence of what happened. Camera angles can be as deceptive as the naked eye.

    And more important, the NFL’s replay system is a laboratory of unintended consequences. Introduced for the same reason many people want to introduce replay to baseball — to put an end to egregious officiating mistakes — it has become the lord of officials. It has changed the way officials call games. Refs now err on the side of the reviewable call, or make no call at all so replay can be possible. They have changed the way they call fumbles and completions. Watch an old NFL game from before replay and you’ll be struck at the difference in officiating and rules interpretation.

    People will argue over the specifics of those last two paragraphs, but there’s no one familiar with replay who doesn’t know that replay is far from perfect, that despite — I would say because of — replay being entrenched in the NFL for years, officiating is still such a problem that a huge number of fans can convince themselves that a recent Super Bowl was fixed by the refs.

    Yet the only anti-replay argument that ever sees the light of day is the Luddite one: Instant replay would rob baseball, that most human of games, of an essential human element.

    That’s a valid argument, but it’s a religious one. No one is ever going to be argued off of it, and if you don’t buy it, you’re not going to be talked into it.

    But it’s interesting that the argument against it goes like this: Instant replay might not be perfect, but it’s better than what we have now, so we should use it. That argument ignores a vital question. Is instant replay better than some other solution?

    If you’ve been around as long as most of the people who are in the most public part of this argument — media figures and baseball officials — technology has been a series of miracles in your life. You can carry a supercomputer in your pocket that connects you to anywhere in the world all the time? Are you kidding? I’m not even 50 and I remember when it was a big deal that someone could leave you a taped message when they called your house — the only place you could have a phone — and you weren’t there.

    Got a problem? Technology can probably fix it, and if not, just wait a little. It’s coming. Marvelous times.

    But I think we sometimes forget that technology isn’t the only fix, and it isn’t always the best one, and not just for squishy reasons having to do with idealizing human error. Human error is a bad thing, and technology is often fantastic at doing away with it. But it can also do away with some good human things, like judgment and holistic problem solving.

    Think about law enforcement for a moment — and sports officiating is essentially law enforcement. Which is more effective at fighting crime, an elaborate system of video surveillance or a program of job training, substance abuse education and treatment, community investment and so on? Or if that’s too liberal-sounding for you, focus in tighter. If you’re a parent, which is more effective at getting your kids to behave like solid citizens, spy cams around the house or engaged, loving parenting?

    If you wanted to design a system that would result in poor umpiring, you would design Major League Baseball’s system. It’s positively medieval. Umpires essentially have lifetime tenure. They are sequestered from the media and answer only to a review system that is as secretive as it is pointless, since it hardly ever results in umpires losing their jobs. Instant replay won’t change that lack of accountability.

    “We never know why or when they are fined, or reprimanded or held accountable,” Oakland A’s pitcher Brad Ziegler told ESPN’s Amy K. Nelson last week. “Any time a player is punished, suspended or sent down to the minors, the public knows about it. It would be a lot easier to communicate with umpires if everyone was held to similar standards. Our statistics as players are a lot more quantifiable than the umpires’.”

    I am something of a Luddite when it comes to instant replay, not because I’m anti-technology — I have a long-distance line to New York in my pocket, and the call is free? Score! — but because I think baseball has been smart about being slow to change over the last century-plus. Replay would suddenly, irreversibly alter a game that has a pretty good history of solving its problems without radical, game-altering solutions.

    I don’t believe baseball should absolutely avoid instant replay because instant replay is evil. I believe it should try to tackle the organizational problems that are leading to the poor umpiring rather than slap an electronic band-aid on them.

    Nelson’s ESPN story is about a planned winter meeting between the grumbling players association, baseball officials and the umpires. Nelson describes such a meeting as “rare,” which is a problem right there. Shouldn’t the three parties involved in this major issue for Major League Baseball talk to each other more than rarely?

    It’s a good step. I’m not too hopeful it’s going to lead to a new era of transparency and reform. No one from the umpires or Major League Baseball would comment for the story.

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    Hard times? TV can be your lottery ticket

    If you can get your sob story on the tube, you're gold. But what about the other millions of desperate Americans?

    A food line at the Community Kitchen in Harlem

    A tweet from NBC reporter Ann Curry:

    Ok, here’s a smile: update on our doc on recession/poverty. I love America

    http://bit.ly/btt50h

    Here’s the text you get when you “share” the video report Curry’s tweeting about:

    Overwhelming response to Dateline’s poverty report

    A development to the story we brought you about struggling families in Ohio who have been pushed over the edge by this recession. ††There’s been a response from people wanting to help.

    http://bit.ly/btt50h

    So it’s that old TV thing. NBC does a story on “Dateline” about families struggling through the recession in rural Ohio, and letters and donations and job offers come pouring in from all over the country.

    The retired Air Force vet has “job offers in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona, Iowa.” Someone sent him $5,000. A woman reads through tears from a letter she’s received: “In a couple of weeks I will be able to send you some money to help with expenses. I hope this letter raises your spirits and that you know I really do care. Most of all, you have a friend in me. You are going to be OK, and so are your children. I will be thinking of you, sweetie, and praying that lots of other people send you much-needed money.”

    She says, “It’s really hard to believe that someone you’ve never met could actually care that much.”  

    The food pantry lady has gotten 500 phone calls and donations from Texas, California, Florida, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maine and Canada. She says, “I just can’t even describe how good it feels to know that there are so many people out there that really do care.”

    This is absolutely par for the course, it’s what happens every single time there is a sob story on the TV, but here’s the thing: People don’t care. They just respond to what’s on television.

    There are folks right down the street in Texas, California, Florida and Iowa who need food and basic supplies. There are good, capable people, some of them retired military, right down the street in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona and Iowa who are looking for work. And, after NBC’s report, those people still need the basics and are still looking for work. And those people who sent the heartfelt letters and the donations and the job offers likely never moved a muscle for those people down the street.

    A guy who drove to the food pantry with a Hefty bag of donations tells the food pantry lady, “Cincinnati Ohio’s thinkin’ of ya,” and she gives him a big hug. Really, guy who drove 170 miles to Lottridge to find someone to give your Hefty bag of stuff to? Because where were you and the rest of Cincinnati before NBC aired its report?

    Curry, who is among the best in the business and whom I don’t mean to beat up on, gets “a smile” out of this, as she should. She did a good piece about people who are struggling, her viewers responded in overwhelming fashion and the people she reported about are deeply moved by their good fortune.

    If you focus in tightly enough, it really is a wonderful thing. That a relatively tiny group of people in Ohio actually did get a lot of help they weren’t going to get without that TV report. It was like a little miracle, and you’d have to have a hard heart indeed not to be touched by the young mom reading the letter or the hardworking food pantry lady who is suddenly able to provide so much more help to so many more people. I love America too.

    But back your view out to the larger picture and what you see is something much more depressing.

    Obviously, the people who sent money and goods and job offers had both the means and willingness to help their neighbors in need, but instead they helped some people they saw on TV. Now, I suppose it’s possible that every one of them, from the donor of $5,000 to the Hefty bag guy from Cincinnati to the job offerers in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona and Iowa, is doing just as much for lots of other people closer to home and not on the TV.

    I would just be willing to bet a lot that they aren’t.

    What Curry’s story suggests is that the generosity of the American people can solve the problems of a lot of folks who need help — as long as they can get on TV. Getting on TV is a lottery ticket, and the depressing part of it is that if you’re in trouble, your chances of getting on TV are about the same as your chances of winning the lottery.

    What about all the desperate people who didn’t have a TV network drop out of the sky into their local food pantry? How do we turn their story into “a smile”? Because there are clearly people out there willing to help. There just isn’t enough TV to go around.

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    Worst! Calls! Ever!

    Slide show: Umpire Jim Joyce's error ruined Armando Galarraga's perfect game. How does it stack up against history?

    Dallas Stars Brett Hull (22) raises his arms after scoring the game winning goal on Buffalo Sabres goalie Dominik Hasek in the third overtime of Game 6 to win the Stanley Cup Finals in Buffalo, NY, Sunday, June 20, 1999. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)(Credit: Associated Press)

    Umpire Jim Joyce’s blown call Wednesday night, which cost Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga a perfect game, is already the stuff of legend. Was it the worst blown call in history?

    It was the worst blown call in Jim Joyce’s history, that’s for sure. And surely the worst in Galarraga’s until-now ordinary baseball career. Because it merely affected a line in a record book — Galarraga would have been the 21st pitcher in MLB history to throw a perfect game, dating to 1880 — it lacks the historical heft of the greatest officiating mistakes.

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    Remembering Ernie Harwell

    To know the longtime voice of the Detroit Tigers, through the radio or in person, was to love him

    FILE - In this Oct. 3, 1993, photo, Detroit Tigers broadcaster Ernie Harwell pauses during a break in the action in the Tigers' baseball game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Tigers say Harwell has died. He was 92. (AP Photo/Paul Hurschmann, File)(Credit: AP)

    The best three days I ever spent on the clock were the three days I spent in Detroit with Ernie Harwell, the longtime voice of the Detroit Tigers, in 2002, his last year in the broadcast booth.

    Harwell died Tuesday at 92, eight months after announcing that he had terminal cancer that he would not treat. John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press, in what will surely be the definitive obituary, quotes Harwell at the time: “I’m ready to face what comes. Whether it’s a long time or a short time is all right with me because it’s up to my Lord and savior.”

    I grew up not listening to Ernie Harwell but to the man who replaced him in the Brooklyn Dodgers booth in 1950, Vin Scully. I hadn’t come to know Harwell until 1999, when baseball broadcasts were still streamed online for free and Harwell had returned to the radio side after five years on TV. Like generations of Michiganders, I quickly fell for his warmth, his charm, his knowledge of the game, his old-timey broadcast voice.

    When he announced that 2002 would be his last season, I wanted to write about him, so I got in touch with him through the Tigers, asking if I could come to Detroit for a few days, hang out with him, shadow him. A day or so later there was a voicemail message. That incredible voice was right on my phone! I saved it for as long as I could. I wish I still had it:

    “King, this is Ernie Harwell from Detroit. I don’t know that there’s much to write about me, but sure, come on up.”

    I had planned to write about a fundamental shift in the way people follow baseball, about how Harwell was one of the last of the old radio men who were identified with a team as much as any player, often more than any player. Now, with most games on TV, far more games on national TV, larger squads of announcers and the Internet providing more baseball information than any one person could ever absorb, fans weren’t dependent on that one broadcaster to serve as the conduit to their team.

    Yes. Well, it seemed interesting in my head. A little of that stuff made it into the piece, but after about 10 minutes with Ernie Harwell, I knew that my story couldn’t be about anything but Ernie Harwell.

    It’s hard to talk about what kind of guy Ernie Harwell was without sounding like you’re talking about a guy on the night of the day he died. But it was just as hard when he was still alive. I spent three days with him, and he was unfailingly kind, generous, cheerful, energetic, positive and humble. And not just with me. At 84 years of age, he was tireless, making sure as he roamed the ballpark — which he did a lot — that every fan who wanted a moment with him — and there were many — got the moment he or she wanted.

    I talked to a lot of people about Ernie Harwell that summer, and in the eight years since then I’ve talked to more people about him and I’ve heard and read many things said about him, and I’ve never heard a hint that the man I came to know in those three days wasn’t the genuine article. It may be that there has never been an unkind word said about Ernie Harwell.

    Jon Miller, the ESPN and San Francisco Giants announcer, was hurrying across a field when I sidled up to him asking if I could talk to him for a minute. He kept walking as he asked what I wanted to talk about. “Ernie Harwell,” I said, and he stopped on a dime. All of a sudden, I had his attention and he grew animated as he told stories about Ernie.

    Mike Shannon, the longtime St. Louis Cardinals broadcaster, was pressed for time just before a game one day but he told me to sit in the press box and wait for him. Minutes before the first pitch, he leaned out the door of his radio booth. “Where’s the guy who wanted to talk about Ernie Harwell?”

    Ty Cobb liked Ernie Harwell, for crying out loud. Ty Cobb didn’t like anybody.

    “He’s so generous with his time,” I wrote back then, “that a reporter in town for three days to research a story on him confesses on the third day that he’s just about run out of questions to ask.” That reporter was me, of course. We were sitting in an empty broadcast booth in the Comerica Park press box when I told him that. He looked out at the field for a few seconds, then started throwing out some suggestions, things I might want to ask about.

    It sounds silly to say, but after spending time with Ernie I told myself that I would try to be a better person, more generous, more cheerful, more optimistic, more kind. More like Ernie Harwell. I failed miserably at this, of course, but I’ve returned to that thought fairly often over the years, and I like to think I’ve moved just a tiny bit in an Ernie-like direction.

    Here’s the story I wrote about Ernie. I think I worked harder on it than on anything I’ve ever written. I did things I never do. I made outlines, wrote things on index cards and arranged and re-arranged them.

    I swung for the fences, wanting to do justice to the living legend and the time I’d had with him. I used a flamboyant structure, organizing the piece around Ernie’s call of a single game, weaving his epic story between snippets of a thoroughly ordinary contest between two lousy teams, the Tigers and the Kansas City Royals.

    I’m not sure it worked. But you don’t get to hang out with the greats that often, and it’s less often that you end up liking them. I wasn’t going to write just another piece about Ernie Harwell in his last year.

    A few days after it ran he sent me an e-mail thanking me for the piece. “Best thing that’s ever been written about me,” he wrote. I’m sure he said that to every single person who ever wrote a story about him. And here’s the thing: I’m sure he meant it every time.

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