Russell D. Feingold, D-Wis.

Why the U.S. must leave Iraq

Sen. Russ Feingold says it's time to admit the war was a disaster -- and accuses his fellow Democrats of going along with Bush out of fear.

Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold has latched his political future to the third rail of American foreign policy. This summer, he proposed a date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq: Dec. 31, 2006. The date raises a specter that no one in Washington — and especially no Democrat — has been willing to broach: that the American people should begin to prepare for a political failure in Iraq, at least a failure by President Bush’s standard of establishing, before the troops leave, a fully functional, democratic Iraqi state.

It is not the first time Feingold has gone out on a political limb. In September, he was the only Democratic senator with presidential ambitions to support John Roberts. He was the only senator to vote against the USA Patriot Act. Before that, he spent nearly a decade fighting the culture of political payola, a fight he won in 2002 with passage of the McCain-Feingold legislation.

Salon sat down with Feingold last week in his Capitol Hill office, which he has decorated with the trophies of his career as a populist politician. There was a photo of his garage door, where he wrote out a contract to voters in 1992 during his first statewide race. There were the framed roll-call votes from the final passage of his campaign-finance legislation. And there was the senator himself, dressed in pinstripes and a blue-gray tie, speaking with the urgency of a politician with his eyes on the White House in 2008. In a wide-ranging interview, he spoke about the “timidity and weakness” of his own party, the mistakes of Sen. John Kerry, the qualifications of Harriet Miers and his plan for winning the War on Terror.

If President Bush came to you this afternoon and said, “I’ve got trouble in Iraq. What should I do now?” what would you say to him?

“Well, Mr. President,” I would say, “we need to get the focus back on those who attacked us on 9/11.” I would say to him that I was proud of the way he and his administration conducted themselves after 9/11. I thought his speech to the Congress after 9/11 was one of the best speeches I’ve ever heard by a president. I admired not only the focus but the bipartisanship of his approach in the lead-up to Afghanistan. We had a historic unity in this country, and I was pleased to be a part of it.

I would then say to the president that I believe the Iraq war was a divergence from the real issue. Unfortunately, in many ways, it has played into the hands of those who attacked us on 9/11. I witnessed the connection that has grown between Osama bin Laden, al-Zarqawi and now Iraqis who have been radicalized because of our invasion of Iraq. So I would urge him to think in terms of a strategy where we finish the military mission. I would ask him to put forward a plan to identify what that mission is, what the benchmarks are that need to be achieved and when they can be achieved, and that he publicly announce a target withdrawal date, so that the American people, the Iraqi people and the world can see that this is in no way intended to be a permanent American occupation.

Can you be any more specific about what that plan should entail?

Well, I think it’s his job to come up with the specifics. But among the things that I would certainly be looking for would be first a recognition that the military mission and the mission of having a democratic and stable Iraq are actually different things. There is a tunnel vision in the White House which suggests we are just going to go out and find the bad guys, we are going to kill them, and we are just going to stay there until that is done. Well, that actually plays into the hands of those who are trying to radicalize the Iraqi people.

So the first thing is, I want the plan to recognize that drawing down our troops in a logical and safe way is a way to defuse the intensity of the insurgency, especially the continuing and growing presence of foreign insurgents. The second recognition of the plan should be that the current troops-on-the-ground military mission is not really the future for Iraq. Actually it calls into question the legitimacy of the current Iraqi government. The plan should recognize that it is our intention to continue joint military operations with the Iraqi government, with their permission, but targeted, laserlike attacks on terrorist elements, just as we are doing with other countries around the world, in the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries. In other words, we are not invading those countries. We are cooperating. We want to continue to have Iraq be part of the international fight against terrorism, but we need to have a course correction. That’s the kind of effort where we would be on the offensive, instead of where we are now, which is on the defensive.

Would it be acceptable for us to leave Iraq before it is politically stable, and before the insurgency is calmed down?

If we don’t leave, our not leaving is a big part of the political instability. So it’s an absurdity to talk in terms of, “How can we leave before it is stable?” In fact, the presence of this huge American, and other [countries'], occupation of this country is what is destabilizing the country even more. It’s a completely illogical conversation for people to talk in terms of what is already, many believe, almost a civil war, if not already a civil war. What we need to do is recognize that Iraqis are going to have to stand on their own. When I suggest that we withdraw the ground forces in a reasonable manner, this does not mean that we do not continue reconstruction, it does not mean that we do not continue to help the government, it does not mean that we do not have a very strong partnership with the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people on non-military issues as well as military issues.

This is not just leaving as we did in Vietnam or as we did in Somalia. That’s a mistake.

If after President Bush left, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean came to your office and said, “We need a more unified Democratic message on Iraq,” would you agree that there is a problem with the Democratic message?

Absolutely. There is a real timidity and weakness in terms of Democrats being willing to stand up to this error of American foreign policy. I think one of the greatest errors in American foreign policy in our modern lives is the divergence into Iraq that was done by the president. It is not sufficient for Democrats to point out the dishonest way we were taken into war. Nor is it sufficient for Democrats to simply point out that what is being done now is extremely mistaken. Democrats have to talk in terms of a strategy that, if they were in the White House, they would implement to successfully finish this particular mission, but more importantly, to get back to the real focus on the terrorist networks that attacked us on 9/11.

The Democratic message shouldn’t begin with Iraq. The Democratic message should begin with, “We are committed to fighting and defeating the terrorist elements that attacked us on 9/11.”

Why don’t you think the Democrats have taken these steps? Why is there this confusion, this hedging?

Fear.

Of what?

Fear of being accused of not being supportive of the troops, which of course is an outrageous response to reasonable questions about Iraq. But it does tend to intimidate people. Fear that somehow people will be accused of being unpatriotic. Fear that the president will say, as he almost always does, that those criticizing the Iraq war don’t understand the lessons of 9/11.

I think it is President Bush who doesn’t understand the lessons of 9/11. I think it’s President Bush who hasn’t even read carefully the 9/11 report, which clearly defines the threat we are facing. The threat we are facing is this international terrorist network that attacked us, and the amount of radicalism that may exist among Islamic peoples that can provide the recruits to fuel the international terrorist network. The president doesn’t understand the difference between what is going on in Iraq and that effort.

The conventional wisdom coming out of 2004 was that a big reason why John Kerry lost was because President Bush appeared to be a stronger leader on national security issues. The conventional wisdom now says that if a politician says we should leave Iraq before all of our goals are met that will be seen as a sign of weakness.

The president has been masterful — not in handling this war or explaining why it was done — but he has been masterful in trying to scare Democrats from having a reasonable position, by saying that is a position of weakness. The response to that is that the terrorist organizations love the fact that we appear to be stuck in Iraq. It’s not a sign of weakness to try to change course. It’s a sign of intelligence. It’s a sign of wanting to win the fight against terrorism. The Democrats have to be comfortable saying that.

That is our biggest problem. The Democrats tend to think, “Oh, I can’t question this.” The way to deal with this is to make sure that we begin with the commitment to do this right. You don’t begin by saying, “Let’s just get out of Iraq.” That shows the same kind of narrow focus and lack of understanding of the issue as the president has shown. A good way to say it in Iraq is not the be-all and end-all of national security. It happens to be an important place. But it was made more important by errors, not by good policy.

You were involved in the 2004 race, supporting John Kerry. Looking back, what were the mistakes that he made or his staff made? What do you think cost him that race?

I think the mistakes really began with the 2002 congressional election. We were doing very well in the Senate races. And we had a great chance to hold the Senate. I saw that many Democrats in the caucus understood that this Iraq war didn’t make sense from the point of view of 9/11. It didn’t really seem that persuasive on weapons of mass destruction. But what the party decided, it seemed, was, “OK, look we can’t beat Bush on the national security stuff. We’ll just cede foreign policy to the Bush administration, and we’ll beat him on domestic issues, where clearly we had the upper hand.” I felt at the time — and I certainly voted against the war — thinking, in part, that there is no way the American people are going to elect a party that only feels they are better on the domestic side.

That’s the context that this 2004 election occurred in. And that’s the context, that people like John Kerry and John Edwards were stuck with votes in favor of the Iraq war. They were in a box. Those of us that didn’t think it was a good idea and didn’t think it related to 9/11 were able to say, as Howard Dean said, we never thought this made sense. It put Kerry in this terrible position, even though I think he did as well as he could, of having voted for the war but being critical. And then, of course, the really devastating piece was having voted against the $87 billion [in supplemental funding for the Iraq war], which I happened to have voted for. It just put him in a bind. I think it all related to the decisions that were made in 2002 for which we paid a price in 2004.

So there is a chance of correcting that going into 2008?

We have a wonderful opportunity to say, “Look, however people voted in 2002 on the Iraq war, clearly the war has not been conducted in a way that any reasonable senator could have expected.” That is the fault of the administration. That’s not the fault of the Congress. I don’t think anyone can say it was the fault of the Congress. We should lay out the fact that this administration has failed to anticipate a number of scenarios that many of us have warned them about. They have mismanaged the situation. We as Democrats want to do two things. First, we want to make sure that this Iraq policy has a clear mission and a reasonable, flexible time frame for completion. And secondly, that we are going to return the primary focus of American national security to the overall fight against terrorist networks that are hitting us in Indonesia and the Middle East, in Europe and potentially the United States.

It’s fair to say, I think, that foreign policy is not the only area where Democrats have a problem right now. Where else do Democrats have to change course or strategy going into the 2006 and 2008 elections?

I think we have to simplify our themes to the point where we portray ourselves … as what David Ignatius recently referred to as a “party of performance.” He recognized that the American people at this point, especially after Katrina and after the problems in Iraq, are looking for a party that can actually, simply do the job. Of course that relates to FEMA. But I think it also relates to foreign policy, to Iraq, to the fight against terrorism. It also relates to the issues, that if you listen to people, you will hear them talk about … We should be willing to take a stand on the healthcare issue that is stronger than some people might be comfortable with.

What is the stand?

Guaranteed healthcare for all Americans, mandated by the federal government, but allowing the states to have some flexibility in how they implement it.

Secondly, we should be a party that is not afraid to stand up to unfair trade agreements. Senators on both sides of the party have trouble with CAFTA and the results of NAFTA. We should break with the party’s recent past and say we’re not going to vote anymore for trade agreements that ship our jobs overseas and are not fair to the workers and the environment of those other countries. Third, there is an overwhelming desire for a real energy-independence approach in this country. People are ready to hear specifics, all the way from wind turbines, to fuel cells, to ethanol, that will make people believe we don’t have to have these foreign countries who essentially have us, as I like to say, over the barrel.

A number of people on the left were unhappy with how you voted on John Roberts. After the vote, Ralph Neas of People for the American Way was in the hallway saying you had voted against the interest of the Constitution.

Yes, I read his quotes. The two most important votes about the Constitution were [for the confirmation of] John Roberts and John Ashcroft, according to Ralph Neas. I wonder where he was the day the USA Patriot Act was voted on and I was the only senator to vote no. I think he is a little confused about what are votes on the Constitution, which that was directly, and what are votes on individuals.

But you have Roberts on the bench. Harriet Miers is heading toward the bench.

Don’t count on that.

Well, whoever the president’s next nominee is, it’s very possible that the person could eat away at a number of legal principles that are Democratic foundations.

It’s very possible.

But you voted, still, for Roberts.

I have this odd sense that George Bush is going to pick whoever the justice is. So those who are yelling and screaming, apparently, have forgotten who gets to make the nomination. So the question is, what’s the best we can get from George Bush? It was my judgment that John Roberts, based on everything I saw and heard, directly and indirectly, was the best possibility we could have to pick somebody who would be non-ideological in his nature, who would try to do the right thing on the court, even though he is certainly more conservative than I am, and who I think in the end will probably be less partisan than his predecessor, Chief Justice Rehnquist.

So I thought it was the best possible scenario for the future of progressive concerns. I may be wrong. But that was my judgment and I think people who wanted a different choice than Roberts would have found out they got something worse.

What is your take on Miers?

I am puzzled. I don’t really understand. I will need to be convinced that this is a person who is of the highest standing, who is qualified, in the first place, for the Supreme Court. Secondly, I am really troubled by the notion that her qualification is that she has a close personal relationship with the president. That strikes me as the opposite of the independence and objectivity that I actually admired with Roberts.

You spoke out against the 527 groups in 2004. Democrats historically have depended much more on these large checks, whether it is through 527s or soft money. If the 527 loophole is closed before 2008, do you think it really handicaps the Democratic nominee?

Yeah, everybody says that to ban soft money would be devastating to Democrats. Even Terry McAuliffe has admitted it did just the opposite. We broadened our base of supporters. It basically returned us to being something of the party of the people. The 527s, I think, were a negative for Democrats. I don’t think they helped us. I think, on balance, the whole Swift Boat thing was devastating to John Kerry. These groups are just cheating. It’s current law, under the 1974 law, not the McCain-Feingold bill, that they should not be able to do this. So I think we would be much better off having a clean message driven by the party and the candidates, rather than these groups. You know, frankly, they run ads sometimes that are obnoxious in terms of not showing Democrats to be respectful and I think that hurts us.

The Swift Boat group was obviously the most effective for the money. But a lot of the big money was going into get-out-the-vote groups on the left and the advertising groups on the left. Do you think those hurt John Kerry’s candidacy?

My sense was that that kind of activity was not what was effective. It was the party. It was the organized work that was done in coordination between the state parties and the federal parties and the candidates.

There is a theory in Washington that the Democratic Party is divided between insiders and outsiders, the conventional leadership of the party and the outside activists like bloggers. Do you buy into that?

I think there is a problem with it. I don’t know if there is a severe divide, but it is something we need to overcome. I think there are a lot of efforts being made by Democratic senators who have awakened to the reality.

What is the problem that you see?

Well, I think what Democratic senators are beginning to realize is that there is a tremendous potential base of support out there that is represented by the blogs and some elements of the Green Party and especially among young people, who the party has not done a very good job of appealing to. Certain votes that I have taken have caused me to have a lot of exposure to these individuals and groups. I just saw what it meant to people that a Democrat stood up on the USA Patriot Act, that Democrats voted against the Iraq war. This is the key to bringing in people who are looking for strong, alternative leadership to the Bush administration.

We have an opening. We have an opportunity here. Republicans brilliantly figured out before we did direct mail and a number of other things that led to the Reagan revolution and the Contract With America. We have an opportunity here to, I think, be the ones who do a better job with the Internet, with the blogosphere, with the unbelievably democratic, with a little d, opportunities that this all presents. This is a sea change in American politics, giving the average person an opportunity to participate in this exciting, real-time way with the political process. I think we are better positioned to take advantage of that.

Michael Scherer is Salon's Washington correspondent. Read his other articles here.

Can you say “Governor Russ Feingold”?

The former senator could make a comeback if Wisconsin's governor is forced into a recall election

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis) speaks at a campaign event with first lady Michelle Obama Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2010, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)(Credit: Morry Gash)

The question isn’t really if Scott Walker and his fellow Wisconsin Republicans will suffer fallout from their surprise maneuver Wednesday night. It’s how severe the fallout will be.

Walker and the state’s Republican senators, as you’ve surely heard by now, decoupled their proposal to strip public workers of their collective bargaining rights from a budget bill, allowing them to push it through the upper chamber with the entire Democratic caucus still holed up across state lines in Illinois. The GOP-controlled Assembly will presumably pass the bill today and Walker will then sign it.

Politically, this represents a wholly reckless move. Wisconsin’s state government has been paralyzed for weeks because of the collective bargaining impasse, and in that time public opinion swung sharply against Walker and his plan. All of the noise generated by the Democrats’ resistance seemed to have convinced a majority that Walker’s plan is out of the mainstream. That these same voters will now hear that Walker and the GOP resorted to an extraordinary measure to jam it through will only harden this assessment — and, potentially, make GOP legislators and the governor himself vulnerable to recall efforts.

The recall campaign will first target the handful of Republican senators who have already been in office for a year and are therefore eligible to be recalled. Petitions are already circulating in their districts. Walker himself is insulated through next January, when his first full year in office will be complete. Only then will his opponents be able to take out petitions to recall him. But that hasn’t stopped more than a few Democrats from promoting their dream recall candidate: Russ Feingold, the former three-term senator who was flushed from office in last fall’s anti-Democratic tide.

Feingold has played a visible role in the fight against Walker’s plan, and issued a statement after last night’s Senate vote that seemed to endorse the recall push. As I’ve written before, the breadth of Feingold’s popularity in his state was something national observers tended to overstate. He never broke 55 percent in any of his three winning campaigns. But when it comes to the Democratic base, his appeal is deep and abiding. And in the right climate — in other words, the current climate in Wisconsin — he’s certainly capable of winning a general election as the Democratic nominee.

He wouldn’t be the first defeated senator to stage a quick comeback as a gubernatorial candidate. Lincoln Chafee, ousted by Rhode Islanders in 2006, just won that state’s governorship as an independent last fall. Lowell Weicker, vanquished by Joe Lieberman in 1988, pulled off the same feat in Connecticut two years later. Feingold shares a quirky maverick streak with both of those men. It’s not that hard to see him following in their footsteps.

But will he get a chance next year? That’s harder to see, mainly because Wisconsin appears to have one of the more onerous recall procedures when it comes to governors: Petitioners would need to gather signatures equivalent to 25 percent of the total number of votes cast in the previous statewide election, and they’d have only 60 days to do it. By contrast, California (where Gov. Gray Davis was successfully recalled in 2003) requires signatures equivalent to only 12 percent of the votes cast in the previous election, with a 160-day window.

It also remains to be seen how long the anger will last in Wisconsin. I’m reminded of the example of Jim Florio, the New Jersey governor who set off an unprecedented tax revolt in the summer of 1990 and saw his approval rating slip to 15 percent in some surveys. It took a while, but eventually his numbers climbed back up to nearly 50 percent — high enough that he came within a fraction of a point of winning reelection in 1993 (and that it was considered an upset that he fell short). Walker’s numbers may nose-dive now, but let’s see where he’s sitting a year from now — and how big the issue still is to Wisconsin voters. The signature requirement seems very high.

Of course, even if talk of recalling Walker never amounts to much, there’ll still be 2014, when his term will expire anyway. Feingold would presumably be just as viable an option for Democrats then as he is now.

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Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki

Russ Feingold’s demise shouldn’t be a surprise

18 years after notching an inspiring upset victory, the progressive icon seems headed for defeat

Wisconsin's Democratic candidate U.S. Senator Russ Feingold is shown before a senate debate against Republican challenger Ron Johnson held at Marquette University Law School, Friday, Oct. 22, 2010, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)(Credit: AP)

Two misconceptions probably explain why so many observers are surprised that Russ Feingold has fallen nearly 10 points behind Republican Ron Johnson in his bid for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. The first is that Wisconsin is an unflinching progressive bastion; the other is that Feingold has been an unusually popular politician in his home state. It’s understandable how both of these views took hold.

Take Wisconsin’s ideological reputation. The Badger State is home to Madison, the Upper Midwest’s answer to Berkeley and Cambridge, and it’s produced several progressive icons, like “Fighting Bob” La Folette, who won nearly 20 percent of the popular vote on the Progressive ticket in the 1924 presidential election, and Gaylord Nelson, the father of Earth Day. Plus, it was one of the very few states to side with Michael Dukakis in the 1988 presidential race, when the Duke was swamped in a 40-state landslide — and one of only five to vote Democratic in each of the last six White House campaigns. Viewed against this backdrop, it’s inconceivable that Wisconsin would turn its back on Feingold.

But the reality of Wisconsin’s politics is more complicated. Outside of Madison, the state is also home to plenty of conservative areas — and to working- and middle-class swing voters who are willing to vote for Republicans under certain conditions. These are the voters who threw out Nelson and replaced him with Bob Kasten in 1980 — and who reelected Kasten in 1986 — and who elected Tommy Thompson to the governorship four times between 1986 and 1998. And while it’s true that Wisconsin sided with Dukakis 22 years ago, that result is best understood as a function of a depressed Upper Midwest economy that also delivered Minnesota and Iowa to the Massachusetts governor. It’s also easy to forget that George W. Bush came within about 5,000 votes of carrying the state in 2000, and about 10,000 in 2004.

In other words, Wisconsin is really a swing state that happens to have elected several liberal iconoclasts to office in its history — Feingold among them. In this sense, Feingold’s real problem is that he’s running for reelection in a horrible climate for Democrats, one in which all of the necessary conditions are in place for swing voters to side with the GOP. Had this race been taking place in 2008, when the environment was skewed in the Democrats’ favor (and when Barack Obama carried the state by 14 points), the Feingold-Johnson race would be a snore, with Feingold coasting to reelection. But in the climate of 2010, there really isn’t much that Feingold can do to overcome the burden of his party label.

Which brings us to the other misconception about this race: that Feingold, with his populism and numerous high-profile principled stands over the years, has created an unusually durable and popular brand with Wisconsin voters; that even voters who don’t agree with him ideologically have come to appreciate and value his willingness to speak his mind and vote his conscience. Some of this is related to the misconception that Wisconsin is an unusually liberal state, but it also ignores Feingold’s electoral history: In three victorious statewide campaigns, he’s never won with more than 55 percent of the vote. In fact, as I’ve written before, he probably should have lost after one term, when he stood for reelection in 1998. Had that been a more normal midterm (i.e., one in which the GOP Congress’ drive to impeach Bill Clinton seemed to cause a backlash that resulted in Democrats’ gaining seats — the first time that a president’s party had done so in his sixth year since James Monroe was in the White House), Feingold probably would have been edged out by Mark Neumann, the GOP congressman who led him in polls late into the race.

Feingold, in other words, has been a more polarizing politician than many realize — and in a state that is less liberal than many assume. The climates of the 1992, 1998 and 2004 elections helped him win (or simply weren’t bad enough to prevent him from winning), but 2010 is a totally different animal. It’s really no wonder that he’s fallen far behind — and if he somehow survives on Tuesday, it will be one of the biggest surprises of the season.

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Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki

Feingold opponent testified against anti-child abuse law

Ron Johnson doesn't want victims of molestation to go around suing the people who enabled it

Ron Johnson

Scandal! Did Russ Feingold film his recent TV ad — in which he claims that he lives in the same house he used to live in — in front of a green screen? A Wisconsin talk radio host (and Daniel Foster of the National Review!) say he did. Because the ad looks funny. But “facts” — specifically, multiple eye-witnesses — say Feingold actually filmed the ad in front of his real-life house.

But maybe Feingold’s opponent Ron Johnson can try to use the old green-screen excuse for this clip, of him addressing the Wisconsin state legislature this last January. Johnson is there to discuss what he imagines will be the unintended consequences of the Wisconsin Child Victims Act — a bill that would extend the statute of limitations on civil suits for victims of child abuse.

(This is a base expression of the sort of libertarianism that reall appeals dumb rich folk — the prospect of some private concern getting wrongfully sued for abetting child molestation is so dire that we must not protect actual victim’s rights to seek redress for their abuse. Trial lawyers! Scary trial lawyers!!!!!)

Johnson, at the time, worked for the Finance Council of the Green Bay Diocese. Polls show Feingold trailing or tied with Johnson.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Tuesday link dump: Not great men

How to raise money from Harvard alums, why obstructionism works, and Russ Feingold's opponent

Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Why Russ Feingold should really be worried

He's survived close calls before, but this year is starting to look different

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.)

The New York Times has a lengthy story today about Russ Feingold’s unexpected reelection struggle in Wisconsin, but it’s not exactly news. Polls have shown the three-term senator under 50 percent and in a dogfight with his likely GOP foe, businessman Ron Johnson, for a while now.

Nor is it the first time Feingold has faced a difficult fall race. In his three successful Senate campaigns, his winning margins have been seven, two and 12 points and he’s never secured more than 56 percent of the vote. It’s tempting to think that this battle-tested past will help Feingold survive this year, but there’s a big — and potentially decisive — difference between his previous campaigns and this year’s: the national climate. Never before has he run with swing voters so predisposed to vote against the Democratic Party, and with such an apparent enthusiasm gap between the two parties’ bases.

Here, the story of Feingold’s 1998 reelection victory — a two-point squeaker — is instructive. On paper, Feingold probably should have lost the race: ’98 was the sixth year of Bill Clinton’s presidency, and since 1822 every president’s party had suffered losses — sometimes significant — in “six-year itch” elections. The GOP recruited an up-and-coming congressman, Mark Neumann, to challenge Feingold and the national party marked the seat as one of its top takeover opportunities. Then, as now, Feingold was attracting less than 50 percent in polling around Labor Day, and by late October, Neumann actually charged into the lead in several polls.

But something funny happened on Election Day: The Republican base did not turn out in big numbers while the Democratic base — particularly union voters — did. Plus, moderate swing voters, who would typically vote against the White House party in a six-year itch election, were unexpectedly friends to Democrats. This was partly due to a massive national turnout effort from the AFL-CIO, but the bigger reason was the GOP Congress’ drive to impeach Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky saga. The House hadn’t yet taken formal action against Clinton, but its leaders spent the campaign steadfastly moving toward impeachment — even as poll after poll warned them not to. In the November election, self-identified moderate voters opted for Democrats by a 54-43 percent margin — with 60 percent of all voters saying they were upset by the GOP Congress’ Clinton/Lewinsky posture.

This backlash, coupled with the AFL-CIO’s outreach and the failure of Neumann’s partial-birth abortion message to motivate cultural conservatives, was just enough to rescue Feingold. Nationally, Clinton became the first president since James Monroe to see his party win seats in his sixth year. 1998 stands as one of political history’s great exceptions: a midterm election in which the normal rules didn’t apply.

But they do apply this year — more so than usual. Unemployment and economic anxiety are high, and economic growth is stalling. And with Democrats controlling the White House and both houses of Congress, swing voters — who possess little collective memory or foresight — are strongly inclined to latch onto the GOP as a protest vehicle. Feingold, whose other Senate victories came in 1992 (when Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush) and 2004 (a tight presidential election in which John Kerry narrowly carried Wisconsin), has never faced this kind of headwind. Just as a backlash against the GOP Congress bailed him out at the last minute in ’98, it’s not hard to see the anti-Democratic tide taking him down at the end of this race.

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Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki

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