California
A primer in plug-in hybrid economics
How many cars can Californians plug into the grid before new power plants are necessary?
Imagine a plug-in hybrid quietly recharging in every garage, vastly reducing society’s dependence on oil. What’s not to like? What are we waiting for?
Advances in battery technology? New solar power plants to handle the additional electricity demand? Higher gas prices to encourage more consumers, and automakers, to make the plug-in hybrid plunge?
The cost-benefit calculus that determines when new technologies replace old ones is rife with imponderables, but if you’re the kind of environmental geek who cuts your teeth on such fare, a brand new investigation of the pros and cons of plug-in hybrids in California, published in the March issue of Environmental Research Letters, is red meat.
The authors, three researchers at U.C. Berkeley (one of whom is Alex Farrell, now making his fourth appearance in How the World Works), endeavor to answer a set of critical questions. Included among them: How many plug-in hybrids could California’s current electrical grid support before new power plants are required to supply the necessary electricity? And how high do gas prices have to be, or how low do hybrid battery costs have to fall, before fuel savings balance out the additional costs associated with plug-in hybrids?
Their answers, as usual in this kind of study, are based on such a dense thicket of assumptions that you kind of feel like the researchers are throwing darts while blindfolded at a spinning mobile. But they’re championship dart throwers, which makes a difference.
First, conclude the authors, the current grid can support at least one million plug-in hybrids without requiring new generating plants, provided owners refrain from charging their vehicles at peak hours — such as summer afternoons, when air conditioners are going full blast in Southern California and the Great Central Valley. They also estimate that the likely cost of electricity will compare favorably to $3-a-gallon gasoline.
So do plug-ins already make economic sense? Not so fast. If you add into the equation the cost of converting a hybrid into a plug-in, or simply factor in the price of plug-in hybrid batteries, the economics get dicier. The authors assert that the price of plug-in batteries will need to fall by almost a “factor of two” before switching to the cars is a prudent consumer decision.
Here’s a taste:
Even with gasoline dear at $4.00/gallon and electricity cheap at $0.05/kWh, vehicle purchasers may only find a compact car plug-in hybrid economical if its cost premium relative to an ordinary hybrid vehicle were under $2000 and if its cost premium relative to a conventional vehicle were under $3500. Such price premiums may require battery pack costs (including electronics, etc) under $650/kWh, while current battery pack prices for plug-in hybrids applications may well be in excess of $1000/kWh.
But here’s the funny thing. After all the number crunching, the authors acknowledge that consumer decision-making is not always predicated on finely honed cost-benefit calculations.
All these calculations ignore other factors that influence vehicle purchase decisions. We believe plug-in hybrids can be introduced successfully into the market because these non-financial factors are very important, including the symbolism of using a green vehicle and of promoting independence from oil consumption. However, with current technologies and policies, plug-in hybrids are only likely to occupy a small niche of vehicle sales. For the large volume sales needed to make plug-in hybrids significant in California energy and environmental markets, technological, financial, and/or policy innovation must lower the cost premium incurred by their larger batteries.
Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
California’s college mess
How not to compete in the global economy: The richest state in the U.S. can't afford to educate its students
Jerry Brown (Credit: Reuters/Lucy Nicholson) If increasing access to quality higher education is as crucial to U.S. economic growth as everybody seems to think it is, then two news item from California this week deliver a simple, straightforward message: We’re screwed.
1) Ace education reporter Nanette Asimov reported on Tuesday in the San Francisco Chronicle that the California State University system is withholding around $90 million in cash grants previously allocated to graduate students in the CSU system.
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Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
California’s unregulated fracking problem
Drilling has long gone unregulated in this earthquake-prone state. And now Gov. Brown may be trying to hush it up
A gas flare burns at a fracking site in rural Bradford County, Pennsylvania January 9, 2012 (Credit: Reuters/Les Stone) Thanks to the smoking gun of Josh Fox’s sobering documentary “Gasland,” hydraulic fracturing has finally entered our renewable news cycle. Yet despite poisoning groundwater, freeing methane and literally creating earthquakes back east, fracking has a visibility problem in California.
The situation became less clear after a recent investigative report from D.C.-based nonprofit Environmental Working Group explained that California has experienced 60 unregulated years of widespread fracking, whose technical methods and geographical locations in the seismically active state exist outside of the public purview. It got darker after Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration wiped the state government’s Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources (DOGGR) website of fracking fact-sheets and documents. Good luck finding anything about fracking on the governor’s official site either.
Scott Thill is the editor of Morphizm.com. He has written on media, politics and music for Wired, the Huffington Post, LA Weekly and other publications. More Scott Thill.
Swimming with the stars
A new photography exhibition examines the cultural significance of the Southern California swimming pool SLIDE SHOW
Lawrence Schiller, "Marilyn Monroe," 1962.(Credit: Courtesy of Judith and Lawrence Schiller; Lawrence Schiller © Polaris Communications, Inc.) By turns playful, suggestive and bewitching, the photographs in a new show at the Palm Springs Art Museum propel us back through the decades, to a time when the glamour of choreographed capitalist displays had a singular hold over the American imagination.
These images, though diverse in many respects, all have one thing in common: the swimming pool. That, and their mid-to-late 20th-century Southern California backdrop.
The exhibition is part of “Pacific Standard Time,” a multi-institutional project devoted telling the story “of the birth of the Los Angeles art scene and how it became a major new force in the art world,” sponsored by the Getty Research Institute. Over the phone, curator Daniell Cornell explained the place of the swimming pool in Southern California’s cultural history, and discussed the show’s principal themes — from architecture and suburban idealism to the cult of the Hollywood celebrity. Click through the following slide show for a sun-soaked trip back in time.
Continue Reading CloseEmma Mustich is a Salon contributor. Follow her on Twitter: @emustich. More Emma Mustich.
Occupy Southern California
At least a half-dozen separate protest movements have sprung up between L.A. and San Diego
San Diego Police clash with demonstrators at the Civic Center Plaza Friday, Oct. 14, 2011 in San Diego. (Credit: AP/Lenny Ignelzi) California has long been a hotbed of political activism, so it’s no real surprise that residents across the state are expressing their solidarity with the Occupy Wall Street movement. In fact, in the relatively small tract of land between Los Angeles and San Diego, a number of groups have staged protests of their own. Here’s a roundup:
Occupy Los Angeles: A group of 10,000 to 15,000 protesters — not just Angelenos, but Californians from near and far — marched in dowtown L.A. on Saturday. According to the Los Angeles Times:
Continue Reading CloseObama’s crackdown on medical marijuana
The Justice Department shifts course and goes after California's lucrative pot industry
Right: DEA agents remove marijuana plants from a dispensary in San Francisco (Credit: AP/Salon) Back in July, I interviewed a drug policy expert about an apparent change in Justice Department policy that suggested a crackdown on medical marijuana — which is legal in many states but illegal under federal law — might be coming.
Now, with the announcement last week by California’s four U.S. attorneys that pot dispensaries will be targeted with harsh criminal sanctions, the shift feared by drug policy reform advocates appears to have come to pass. The rhetoric from candidate Barack Obama about not prioritizing medical marijuana cases now seems a distant memory.
Continue Reading CloseJustin Elliott is a reporter for ProPublica. You can follow him on Twitter @ElliottJustin More Justin Elliott.
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