Baseball
First-half predictions: Predictably bad
It's not pretty for this column, though not as ugly as for those who picked the Mariners.
We’ve made it past the day that several baseball-loving people I know call the worst day of the year, the day after the All-Star Game. There are no games, nothing much else going on, though this year we had a little Kirk Radomski-Roger Clemens flare-up.
I think Wednesday’s great compared with Monday. No heroic measures are necessary to avoid hearing Chris Berman yell “Backbackback” a thousand times.
It’s also the traditional time to assess the first half of the season, and that often means reviewing the dumb predictions that were made in March and replacing them with a new batch of dumb predictions. Did I say Andruw Jones for MVP? Ha! You must have misheard my eccentric pronunciation of the name Lance Berkman. But I’ll tell you who’s really going to get hot in the second half: Andruw Jones!
And so on.
Blogger Geoff Decker of whereistand.com reviews the predictions of no fewer than 42 typists, chatterers and people I’ve never heard of in something he calls the Sports Media Accuracy Power Rankings, which is a fancy way of saying: Let’s see how bad all these bozos’ preseason predictions were.
He and his minions collected the predictions of 42 experts about which teams would win the six divisions and, using a mathematical formula that I’m sure would be too complicated for me to understand even if it were explained, assessed the accuracy of their prognostications through July 1.
An expert gets 12 points if the team he or she picked to win a division is in first place, fewer points the farther away it is from the top. For example, while the Florida Marlins and Oakland A’s were both in second place on July 1, the Marlins were closer to first, so a Marlins pick was worth 11 points, a pick of the A’s only eight. Got that?
Me neither. Anyway, with the caveat that these experts were making predictions about who would be in first place on Oct. 1, not July 1, the leader on the backstretch here is a tie between Sean McAdam of ESPN — as with this column’s Panel o’ Experts, the four-letter is well represented — and Jason McIntyre of the Big Lead with 64 points. Their picks were identical: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks.
At the bottom of the list is a three-way tie: Mike Greenberg and Buster Olney of ESPN and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, all with 33 points. All three picked the Seattle Mariners to win the A.L. West. In fact, the bottom 10 and 15 of the bottom 21 in the list picked Seattle to win the West. Only one expert above 22nd place, Scott Miller of CBSSportsLine, picked the Mariners.
Seattle was already 17 and a half games out on July 1 and couldn’t see third place if it stood on a box, so a Mariners pick was worth zero points, which can really drag a score down.
Let that be a lesson to you, prognosticators. Pythagoras will get you. The Mariners won 88 games last year, which if you didn’t look too close made it seem like they were right on the doorstep. That’s why they traded for Erik Bedard. But their pythagorean winning percentage — a measure of how many games a team should have won given its run differential — said they were really a 79-win team that had a run of luck in ’07 and was a long way from contending in ’08.
You pick a team like that at your peril, the peril of looking silly in something like the Sports Media Accuracy Power Rankings.
This column doesn’t look silly because it was ignored, which it considers an act of mercy. Here are my picks, presented with the number of points they’ve earned in the SMAPR:
New York Yankees: 5
Cleveland Indians: 1
Los Angeles Angels: 12
Atlanta Braves: 7
Milwaukee Brewers: 8
Arizona Diamondbacks: 12
Those picks would have given me 45 points, which would have put me in 32nd place, just ahead of Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN and behind the tied Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, Steve Phillips of ESPN and Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, not to mention the magazine itself, whose picks look suspiciously like Verducci’s.
I’d like to point out once again that the predictions were about who would win the divisions, not who’d be in first place on July 1. But that wouldn’t do anything but buy me some time. I’ve got an awful lot invested in the Indians, who have brought me one more point than a pick of the Mariners would have.
Wait a minute. Cleveland Indians? You must have misheard my eccentric pronunciation of the name Chicago White Sox.
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr More King Kaufman.
Guillen’s pro-Castro candor
The Miami Marlins' manager is lucky to get a suspension. Not so long ago, he might have received a car bomb.
A contrite Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen gestures at a news conference on Tuesday. (Credit: AP/Lynne Sladky) There’s not much reason to doubt that baseball manager Ozzie Guillen admires Fidel Castro. He said so five years ago in an interview with Men’s Journal. When asked to name the toughest man he knew, Guillen replied, “Fidel Castro. He’s a bull—- dictator and everybody’s against him, and he still survives, has power. Still has a country behind him. Everywhere he goes, they roll out the red carpet. I don’t admire his philosophy; I admire him.’’
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
The year of the baseball book
From a treatise on Yankee hating to a "people's history," a number of great books covered the national pastime
A simple and unsettling calculation reveals to me that this year marks the 40th anniversary of my coming to New England and setting up shop as a Red Sox fan. How innocent I was in that distant day: how little I understood the faces etched with pain, the haunted eyes, the lips that writhed in uttering “Yankees.” It did not take long to become afflicted by the same symptoms and, in my time here, certain Yankee-related events have been so traumatic that they are best designated by numerals alone: 1978 and 2003. The ALCS of 2004 (when the Red Sox came from a 0-3 game deficit to vanquish the evil ones) changed the region’s mental landscape — as, of course, did the subsequent World Championship(s). Since then, Yankee hating has become more of a pleasant pastime than a crippling mental and spiritual disorder.
Continue Reading CloseThe Marlins’ bizarre new look
The team's revamped logo involves a whimsical rainbow swoosh. The effect is anything but intimidating
So far the biggest story to come out of baseball’s early off-season isn’t some splashy free agent signing or the abrupt retirement of St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, but that of the logo and uniform redesign of the Florida Marlins. The new look was officially announced on Friday, and if you haven’t seen them already, you might not believe your eyes. In fact, when some of the images of the new logo were leaked there was such shock and disbelief by the baseball world, most people assumed it was a farce, calling the look everything from “Hawaiian Shaved Ice” to “Push-up Pop” to “Rainbow Bright.”
Continue Reading CloseExonerating Bill Buckner
25 years after the Red Sox infielder's infamous World Series error, we look at what really happened that October
(Credit: AP) Bill Buckner’s error in the 1986 World Series – 25 years ago today, a day of infamy for Red Sox fans — is one of the two most famous plays in World Series history. (Willie Mays’ catch in the 1954 fall classic is the other.)
Like Mays’ over-the-shoulder catch, Buckner’s booboo is entrenched in American folklore. Jimmy Fallon’s Red Sox fanatic in “Fever Pitch,” distraught over breaking up with his girlfriend, watches Buckner’s play over and over on his VCR. During congressional hearings in 2008, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., called former Treasury Secretary John Snow, then-SEC chief Christopher Cox and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan “three Bill Buckners.” On “Curb Your Enthusiasm” this season, Larry David loses a softball game when a ball rolls between his legs; his coach screams, “You Buckner-ed me!”
Continue Reading CloseAllen Barra's next book is "Mickey and Willie -- The Parallel Lives of Baseball's Golden Age," from Crown. More Allen Barra.
What baseball tells us about racism
Most home-plate umpires are white -- and they seem to be hurting the careers of minority pitchers
Despite recent odes to “post-racial” sensibilities, persistent racial wage and unemployment gaps show that prejudice is alive and well in America. Nonetheless, that truism is often angrily denied or willfully ignored in our society, in part, because prejudice is so much more difficult to recognize on a day-to-day basis. As opposed to the Jim Crow era of white hoods and lynch mobs, 21st century American bigotry is now more often an unseen crime of the subtle and the reflexive — and the crime scene tends to be the shadowy nuances of hiring decisions, performance evaluations and plausible deniability.
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David Sirota is a best-selling author of the new book "Back to Our Future: How the 1980s Explain the World We Live In Now." He hosts the morning show on AM760 in Colorado. E-mail him at ds@davidsirota.com, follow him on Twitter @davidsirota or visit his website at www.davidsirota.com. More David Sirota.
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