Football
NFL assumptions: Wrong again
Unless you saw Atlanta (3-2) over Green Bay (2-3) coming, you didn't see this season shaping up this way either.
It struck me as I mostly ignored the NFL action Sunday in favor of baseball playoffs that we’ve reached the point in the season when we should drop the assumptions we brought with us at kickoff a month ago.
It may have been when I got a load of the in-progress Atlanta-Green Bay score, which would eventually become a Falcons win that dropped the Packers to 2-3 and improved the Falcons to 3-2, one win shy of their 2007 total. The Packers were supposed to be the main challengers for the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC, remember? Maybe it was when I saw Washington winning again, beating the Philadelphia Eagles to improve to 4-1.
Whenever it was, it happens at some point, right around here, every year. In my head, I mean. The dawning that I have to stop thinking of this year’s Insert Team Heres as some kind of continuation of last year’s version of the Heres. Can’t do that. The NFL changes too much.
Based on a proprietary concoction of my ridiculous preseason hunches and the general consensus as I understood it, here are the teams I think are better than we all thought they’d be.
Unless it was just me.
NFC: Washington, Atlanta
AFC: Tennessee, Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Miami
The Falcons might not be much, but they’ve won three and they’ve been at least competitive every week. That’s a big step up from the 2007 version.
I was more optimistic than most about the Bills, but even I didn’t think they’d be as good as they looked right until they got drilled by the Arizona Cardinals Sunday. The Bills are still outperforming the consensus preseason opinion of them, though, as are the others, including the Dolphins, who all of a sudden aren’t just not pathetic, they’re beating up on the teams that were supposed to vie for the conference title.
I’d put the Oakland Raiders in this category too, but I have a “Who knows yet?” category that I’ll get to in a second, and the Raiders would go there no matter what they were doing.
Here are the teams that have underperformed expectations:
NFC: Green Bay, Seattle, Minnesota
AFC: New England, Cleveland, San Diego, Cincinnati
The Patriots are kind of a special case. It’s easier to drop those preseason preconceptions when the star quarterback goes out for the year in the first quarter of the first game.
Keep in mind, sensitive Packers fans, that there are 11 games left for most teams, and five weeks from now all the impressions we’ve gathered in the first five weeks could very well be moot. Especially my impressions, which are stupid, and in the case of this week, based on not having watched the games. Yet. A dozen “Short Cuts” await.
This is a snapshot. But if the Packers are going to contend for the Super Bowl like they were supposed to, they’re going to need to turn things around.
The Browns, a chic pick to contend for the Super Bowl, are the stars of the AFC side of this category. The Chargers would have gone in “Who knows yet?” before losing to the Dolphins Sunday. They could get there in a few weeks. The Bengals are here only because nobody thought they’d be so, so bad, but they seem to be coming out of that lately. They could end up going the rest of the way as the almost-good team they were supposed to be.
So who does it look like the consensus more or less got right so far?
NFC: N.Y. Giants, Dallas, Detroit, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis
AFC: Pittsburgh, Kansas City
That’s a pretty diverse NFC list. Arizona could go in any category, so maybe the Cardinals really belong in “Who knows yet?” But I think the consensus view of them was that they might be good, they might be awful. And sure enough: They have been. The Giants might have slightly outperformed the low preseason expectations, but I think the consensus and the performance have been similar: Good team.
All right, then: Who knows yet?
NFC: Carolina, Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay
AFC: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, N.Y. Jets, Jacksonville, Oakland
This is the most interesting group, except for the Raiders. They’re interesting, but in a different, train-wreck kind of way.
These are teams that have been inconsistent, that have looked pretty good while losing or pretty bad while winning, that have beaten teams they should have lost to and lost to teams they should have beaten. There’s only one thing I can say with some certainty about every team in the “Who knows yet?” group:
You do.
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr More King Kaufman.
Can Tebow find salvation?
Updated: After losing his job in Denver, evangelicals' favorite jock faces an uncertain future in New York.
Tim Tebow (Credit: Reuters/Rick WIlking) [UPDATED BELOW]
You don’t need to be an evangelical Christian to care about the future of Tim Tebow. I’m a lapsed atheist myself. But with the resurrection of quarterback Peyton Manning in Denver, I wonder most about the future of the spiritual scrambler, who led the Broncos to the playoffs last year.
The Broncos signing Manning to replace Tebow is a no-brainer. He may be diminished by age and injury, but he is also the best quarterback of our time, not because he is a brilliant coach’s puppet (Tom Brady) or an on-field, off-field brute (Ben Roethlisberger) but by virtue of a fierce work ethic and a concentrated intelligence that is contagious and inspirational. Whatever is left at age 35 of him will make the Broncos better.
Continue Reading CloseRobert Lipsyte is a former New York Times sports columnist. His new memoir, "An Accidental Sportswriter," has just been published. More Robert Lipsyte.
The Super Bowl is not a job creator
Despite what civic boosters say, hosting the big game provides few long-term benefits
(Credit: AP/Michael Conroy) Roger Goodell, the commissioner of the National Football League, argued on “60 Minutes” last Sunday that the NFL is one professional organization designed to appeal to the economic interests of the little guy: Its revenue-sharing model, he said, gives a fighting chance to squads from Green Bay and Buffalo as well as to those from large media markets like New York, Los Angeles and Boston.
On the eve of the Super Bowl, Goodell was touting the familiar idea that the sport’s biggest game is a boon to economic development. But with the cost of a ticket now averaging $3,982 and 30-second television spots selling for $3.5 million, the Super Bowl can appear to be more an occasion for ostentatious excess than an engine of development.
Continue Reading CloseAlexander Heffner is a freelance journalist whose writing has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Boston Globe. More Alexander Heffner.
Political lessons from this year’s Super Bowl
From jobs to health care, football's big game illustrates the factors that will dominate the 2012 election
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (Credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola) Most Americans won’t need a justification to watch Sunday’s game, but if you’re a Salon reader you might think, even in passing, that celebrating the holiest day of violence, consumerism and class warfare on your couch is a betrayal of your values or a waste of your time. You might even imagine that it would be better to take a hike, read a book or meditate.
Not this Sunday, buster. It’s an election season. You need to watch this game to fully understand how jobs, religion, leadership and healthcare dominate every American contest.
Continue Reading CloseRobert Lipsyte is a former New York Times sports columnist. His new memoir, "An Accidental Sportswriter," has just been published. More Robert Lipsyte.
Enjoy the game? For the true fan, it’s all about agony
The New York Giants are in the Super Bowl. But for one obsessive, the question is what time to take the Ativan
Ohio State football fans (Credit: AP) “The truth is,” Nick Hornby wrote in “Fever Pitch,” his book about his obsession with Arsenal and British football, “for alarmingly large chunks of an average day, I am a moron.”
That’s a wonderful sentence by one of my favorite writers, but if Hornby is only a moron for only large chunks of the average day, he is doing a lot better than I am. I can honestly report that for the last few months I have been an absolute idiot for all but very small portions of the day.
Continue Reading CloseTed Heller's latest novel, "Pocket Kings," will be published in March. He is also the author of the novels "Slab Rat" and "Funnymen." More Ted Heller.
Small blunders kill Super Bowl dreams
For fans of the 49ers and Ravens, the road to the big game is paved with pain
Kyle Williams loses it Just when it looked like the NFC and AFC championship games were going to last until the Super Bowl, two fatal blunders brought them to an abrupt close. The stunning conclusions to two of the most tense, evenly matched conference championship games in recent memory were a painful reminder that although football is a team game, one miscue by a single player can wipe out thousands of hours of collective blood, sweat and tears.
It will be a sad and lonely night for Baltimore Ravens’ kicker Billy Cundiff, whose shanked chip-shot 32-yarder gave the AFC championship to the New England Patriots. Kickers must have strong mental constitutions: in a sport where bonds between teammates are cemented in blood and pain, they are not always regarded as full-fledged comrades to begin with, and so when they screw up, it’s even harder for them to deal with. The mantra “short memory,” which defensive backs are constantly shouting at each other, applies in spades to kickers. Cundiff could use a tall glass of Milk of Amnesia.
Continue Reading CloseGary Kamiya is a Salon contributing writer. More Gary Kamiya.
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