2012 Elections
An awful argument for replacing Biden with Hillary
The idea that Obama needs Hillary to connect with white voters is so 2008
Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden To put it politely, I’m skeptical of the chatter about Hillary Clinton replacing Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket in 2012. It would just be too complicated and so … unnecessary.
But the idea is back in the news this week, thanks to a mischievous Politico Op-Ed from, of all people, former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder. Wilder’s piece prompted a “Hardball” segment yesterday, in which John Heilemann made an absolutely terrible case for why a Hillary-Biden switch would be good for Obama’s ’12 prospects:
And on the question of what has to happen in 2012, I think you’re exactly right. I think it’s going to be a nail-biter. You remember, Barack Obama won, what, 42 or 43 percent of the white vote — a really high percentage of the white vote, better than John Kerry, better than Al Gore in 2000. He’s right now running at about 35 percent approval rating with the white vote. And if he’s going to — you can’t win the presidency with 35 percent of the white vote. He needs to do something to solve that problem. Joe Biden is good with those people — but Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton are better.
Ugh. Basically, Heilemann is repeating the exact same argument that we heard throughout the spring and summer of 2008 — that Obama had a problem with white, working-class voters in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio that only Hillary “Frank Rizzo” Clinton could help him solve. And yet, Obama didn’t pick Clinton and, as Heilemann noted last night, he went on to win a surprisingly high share of the white vote in 2008. So Obama has already demonstrated that he can do OK with white voters without the Clintons.
Of course, as Heilemann noted, Obama isn’t doing nearly as well right now among white voters. A Quinnipiac poll last week found that only 28 percent of them say that they’d vote to reelect him if the ’12 election were held now. But adding Hillary Clinton isn’t the solution to this problem; turning the economy around is.
As I noted on Sunday, Obama’s poor numbers with white voters are certainly alarming — and, given the overtly racist attacks that some on the right have leveled against him, it’s tempting to believe that his race accounts for this. But things start to look different when you remember that, at this same point in his presidency, Bill Clinton — a white Southerner who many referred to as “Bubba” — was faring just as miserably with white voters, worse even. Heading into the ’94 midterms, his approval rating with white men was around 20 percent — and it was in the single digits in some Deep South states. Overall, Democrats lost white voters by 24 points in the ’94 midterms. But it was a much different story just two years later. The economy was stronger and voters had come around on Clinton. He fought Bob Dole to a draw among white voters, and won by 8 points overall. The campaign was a snooze.
If the economy turns around, you can expect Obama to win back those white voters who were with him in ’08 but who have turned away as the economy has continued to struggle. And if the economy doesn’t turn around, adding Hillary to the ticket won’t help; for all the hype, running mates don’t affect presidential elections. (Just remember how thorough the mismatch between Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle was in 1988 — and how little it translated into on Election Day for Michael Dukakis.)
Plus, if the economy is still feeble in ’12 and Obama is in peril, I doubt Hillary would want to be his new running mate. As Heilemann noted, it’s fair to assume she wants to run in ’16, so joining a doomed ticket — since, again, she’d basically be powerless to help Obama — could tarnish her standing. Staying away would allow her to emerge cleanly from any Obama ’12 wreckage. (For real junkies: A scenario like this played out in New Jersey last year, when Jon Corzine begged Newark Mayor Cory Booker to join his ticket. Booker, who wants to run for governor in 2013, smartly refused. He knew he’d be blamed if Corzine lost.)
The Hillary-Biden talk isn’t surprising, given her celebrity and the fact that Biden will turn 74 at the end of 2016. She’s clearly a more natural heir to the Democratic throne. But she’ll still enjoy that status even if she stays off the Democratic ticket in ’12. And she could lose it if she were to join the ticket and then lose.
Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.
Florida purging voter rolls
Governor Rick Scott moves forward with a plan to disqualify thousands of mostly Hispanic and Democratic voters
Rick Scott (Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid) Hated Florida Governor Rick Scott has a great idea: A big, massive purge of the state’s voter roll right before a sure-to-be-close presidential election. The governor ordered his secretary of state to compile a list of registered voters who might not be citizens, based on an unreliable and out-of-date state motor vehicle administration database. The secretary of state made a list and then realized the list was not actually very useful or accurate. Then he resigned, and now Scott is just purging away.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Mitt Romney: Politics “like a sport”
What makes Mitt tick? The nominee says he likes politics because "I can't compete in competitive sports very well"
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gestures as he leaves a campaign event in Hillsborough, New Hampshire May 18, 2012. (Credit: Reuters/Jessica Rinaldi) Mitt Romney may have unintentionally opened a window onto his somewhat obscured motivations for running for president in an interview with the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan today, explaining that he likes sports, but isn’t very good at them, so he does politics instead.
Asked about whether he likes “the game” of politics, the presumed GOP nominee replied, “I like competition, and I think the game [of politics] is like a sport for old guys. I mean, you know, I can’t compete in competitive sports very well, but I can compete in politics, and there’s the — what was the old ABC ‘Wide World of Sports’ slogan? ‘The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.’ The only difference is victory is still a thrill, but I don’t feel agony in loss.”
Continue Reading CloseAlex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at aseitz-wald@salon.com, and follow him on Twitter @aseitzwald. More Alex Seitz-Wald.
Trump insinuates self into Romney campaign
How a toxic attention-seeker (not Newt) will likely end up speaking at the RNC
Businessman and real estate developer Donald Trump (L) greets Mitt Romney after endorsing his candidacy for president at the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada February 2, 2012. (Credit: Reuters/Steve Marcus) So. Donald Trump again? Are we really doing this again? I guess we are!
There were stories, recently, in the usual places, about how Trump was being seriously considered for a major speech at the Republican Convention. I did not dwell on the story much, because I assumed that these rumors were a product of Donald Trump’s prodigious vanity and powerful imagination. Ha ha ha, sure, the Republicans will definitely want the stupid make-believe TV mogul who pretends to fire people for a living, at their big party.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
“Battlefield Earth”: Romney vs. the Psychlos
The GOP's standard bearer calls L. Ron Hubbard's bizarro sci-fi epic his favorite novel. Is that cause for concern?
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney reads a book to children in Manchester(Credit: Brian Snyder / Reuters) There’s a scene near the end of “Battlefield Earth,” Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard’s 1982 science fiction epic, that may explain a bit of why Mitt Romney has said (most recently this week) that it’s his favorite novel.
Our hero, Jonnie Goodboy Tyler, has just finished taking down the Psychlo empire, which has ruled Earth for the past millennium and has dominated most of the known 16 universes for going on 300,000 years. Now Jonnie has to negotiate with the alien powers who are jockeying to fill the power vacuum left behind, and things aren’t looking so good for the human race.
Continue Reading CloseDaniel Oppenheimer's book "Turncoats: The Journey from Left to Right and How It’s Transformed America," a political and intellectual history of six prominent American intellectuals who journeyed from the left to the right of the political spectrum, will be published by Simon and Schuster More Daniel Oppenheimer.
Will Latinos elect Obama?
Hispanic voters may not be as decisive a voting bloc as everyone assumes. Just look at the swing states
(Credit: AP/Jae C. Hong) The conventional wisdom is that the growing Latino vote is key to President Obama’s reelection prospects. By all accounts, Latinos favor the president over Mitt Romney by wider margins than they favored him over John McCain in 2008, when he won two-thirds of the Hispanic vote and captured crucial swing states with large Hispanic populations, including Colorado, Nevada and Florida. Bloomberg reported this week that lower-than-average unemployment in the key battleground states “coupled with the growth of adult minority populations in those states create a higher bar” for Romney in his quest to oust the incumbent.
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
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