Election 2012
Sorry, Republicans: It’s too late for new presidential candidates
A "white knight" candidate would have no shot at winning enough delegates to secure the GOP nomination
Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush (Credit: AP) We all owe a great big thanks to political scientist Josh Putnam. Putnam actually went to the trouble of looking up the filing deadlines for all the coming primaries and caucuses in order to see whether it would be possible for a new candidate to enter the Republican presidential race and actually win the nomination. Short answer: Sure, if they entered today and won enough write-ins and uncommitted delegates. But by tomorrow, it would be effectively impossible to win the nomination before the convention.
If the list is constrained more simply to the states where filing deadlines have not passed, the total delegates open to a late entrant drops to 1157. After Tuesday, when Kentucky’s (and Indiana’s petition — see footnote 17 above) deadlines pass that total will drop below 1144 to 1066.
A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to win the Republican presidential nomination.
Tomorrow, when Florida votes, the door for any magical new non-Romney (or non-Newt) candidate will have closed. No one will be able to show up and ride a wave of elite and base enthusiasm to the nomination, even if a character who generated that enthusiasm existed instead of being an idle George Will daydream. Mitch “Mr. Excitement” Daniels cannot possibly enter the race now and make it onto enough ballots to win the nomination without taking the fight all the way to the first Republican National Convention without a predetermined nominee since 1976. (A convention that would, as Jonathan Bernstein argues, be “deadlocked” and not “brokered,” because there is not much “brokering” possible when each delegate is allowed to vote for whomever he or she likes rather than beholden to a boss.)
Please keep this in mind when you read (and you will read) pundits still imagining or praying for some current non-candidate to enter the race. It would only be possible to win, at this point, by specifically planning to turn the Republican National Convention into an unpredictable free-for-all, something I’m not sure even Ron Paul would be willing to do, let alone some staid figure like Daniels.
Or, for that matter, Jeb Bush, whom Fred Barnes theorizes could “emerge as an acceptable compromise nominee” at the convention, assuming Gingrich has enough delegates to deny Romney the nomination. (His other Bush theories: A VP nod or some sort of vague “kingmaker role” in which he instructs Republicans to select either Romney or Gingrich, and they listen to him, because he … is a hypnotist? It’s not clear.)
Imagine thousands of delegates, free to support whomever they choose at a wide-open convention, all magically coalescing around Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee — in late August, following months of bruising battle between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney — and then feel free to imagine the outfit you’ll wear to Obama’s second inauguration.
Newt Gingrich is doing everything in his power to ensure that Mitt Romney will have a difficult time winning the number of delegates necessary to ensure the nomination, but even if Gingrich manages to make good on his threat to drag this out, math has already effectively eliminated the possibility that someone else less insane could take advantage of his work. And the candidates credible enough to make a serious “deadlocked convention” play would be too sensible to attempt it, because the result of denying Romney the nomination would be utter chaos.
There’s no white knight. Voters seem to be beginning to realize this, as Jamelle Bouie and Jonathan Chait have anecdotal evidence of conservatives making their peace with Mitt Romney. But even if Romney fails to seal the deal tomorrow, paid professional political analysts should not mislead people into thinking that some unknown person could still make a serious play for the nomination at this late date.
Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Susana Martinez’s veep suicide
The New Mexico governor is an unlikely running mate for Romney after speaking out on immigration
Susana Martinez (Credit: AP/Susan Montoya Bryan) While Newsweek touted New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez as a possible running mate for Mitt Romney, the erstwhile beneficiary of the hype all but killed her chances of getting the job by opening her mouth.
“I absolutely advocate for comprehensive immigration reform,” Martinez told reporter Andrew Romano. “Republicans want to be tough and say, ‘Illegals, you’re gone.’ But the answer is a lot more complex than that.”
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
Dreamers spurn Obama
Young immigrants feel tricked by the White House line on Marco Rubio's revival of the DREAM Act
Supporters of the DREAM Act take part in a demonstration in front of the White House. (Credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) Mohammad Abdollahi has not followed every twist and turn of the national immigration debate. He has been too busy trying to save a friend from deportation.
Last month, 20-year-old Izlia Luna of Medford, Ore., was stopped by police for a traffic altercation. The judge threw out the charges. But under the mandate of the Obama administration’s Secure Communities program, Luna’s fingerprints had been taken. She was found to be undocumented. Luna was brought to the United States from Mexico when she was 2 years old. Instead of being released she was sent to an ICE detention facility in Tacoma, Wash., 340 miles from her home.
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
What is Marco Rubio running for?
In a foreign policy speech, the Florida senator serves up bipartisan veal, not Republican red meat
Marco Rubio speaks out on U.S. foreign policy.(Credit: AP/Jacquelyn Martin) Marco Rubio insists he isn’t running for vice president in 2012, but he is running pretty hard for something. The question is what and when.
The junior senator from Florida gave a proverbial “major foreign policy address” in Washington today, after publishing a Los Angeles Times op-ed calling for the U.S. to pay more attention to Latin America and before moving on to a meeting with Democratic senators about his variation of the Democrats’ DREAM Act.
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Jefferson Morley is a staff writer for Salon in Washington and author of the forthcoming book, Snow-Storm in August: Washington City, Francis Scott Key, and the Forgotten Race Riot of 1835 (Nan Talese/Doubleday). More Jefferson Morley.
Scott Brown’s triumphant makeover
The Massachusetts senator has pulled ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the polls by running away from the Tea Party
U.S. Senator Scott Brown (Credit: Hyungwon Kang / Reuters) The so-called People’s Pledge seemed like a somewhat gimmicky win-win proposition for both incumbent Republican Sen. Scott Brown and his Democratic challenger, Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren, in their race for the seat once held by Ted Kennedy. The idea, proposed by Brown, was to staunch the flow of super PAC money into the race with an agreement of elegant simplicity: If a candidate is attacked by name in an ad, then the one who comes off looking better is obliged to donate half the cost of the ad buy to a charity of the other candidate’s choice. Pretty simple: Why shoot yourself in the foot, right?
Continue Reading ClosePatrick Tracey, author of "Stalking Irish Madness: Searching for the Roots of My Family's Schizophrenia," is a writer in Boston. More Patrick Tracey.
Santorum tests positive and negative
In his new TV ads, the Republican contender tries to be upbeat and nice, while splattering mud on Mitt VIDEO
A Rick Santorum cut-out, with "mud" (Credit: Rick Santorum/YouTube) Rick Santorum is definitely going to be our next president, so we should probably get to know him a little better, as a country. Thankfully, he’s introducing himself, with TV advertisements. (Or Web videos that might run on TV somewhere but are partially designed to garner free pickup from blogs and websites.)
Here is Santorum’s “positive” ad, in which we learn that lots of people have said nice things about him in the past.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
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