2012 Elections
Whose Wisconsin recall is it?
Veer to the populist left or hug the middle of the road: That's the choice facing the campaign against Scott Walker
Retired firefighter Jim Cerro takes on Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (Credit: AP/Andy Manis) The Scott Walker recall is already historic. Last month, organizers submitted signatures from over a million Wisconsinites, the largest portion of an electorate to ever petition for recall of a United States governor. The total – nearly double the number required – means near-certain certification by the state’s election board of what will be the third gubernatorial recall in American history. Last week’s $700,000 pro-Walker ad buy by the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity was the latest confirmation that the Walker recall will be a marquee race. But what kind of race will Walker’s opponents seek: a battle of competing centrist appeals, like the fall presidential election, or something very different?
Last winter, the three-week occupation of Wisconsin’s capitol brought into sharp relief what would become two of the year’s defining forces: Emboldened far-right state governments and emergent left populist movements. After Walker successfully pushed through his “budget repair” bill to cripple public workers’ collective bargaining rights, much of the energy of the capitol occupation shifted to efforts to recall the bill’s midwives in the Senate. Though they took place in Republican-leaning districts, last summer’s recall campaigns against six GOP senators were marked by fierce populism rather than cautious moderation.
TV ads, door-to-door canvassers, and some of the Democratic candidates themselves portrayed Republicans as rich people out to screw the 99 percent. Their effect, Wisconsin AFL-CIO secretary-treasurer Stephanie Bloomingdale told me during the campaign, would “determine how we do these kinds of populist messages in other states.” The result was a split decision. Two Senate Republicans went down, and four held on (all three Democrats facing similar recall elections survived). The effort fell one success short of the announced goal of flipping the state Senate, but it was a striking victory against senators who had weathered the Democratic wave of 2008. And it laid the groundwork for the recalls now facing more GOP senators, the lieutenant governor and Walker himself.
Will the campaign against Walker pick up the populism where those recalls left off, making class-based appeals and drawing sharp contrasts? Or will it pander to the moderate sensibilities of an imagined middle 5 percent? A few factors will make the difference.
First will be the selection of a candidate. “The key to winning is to have a candidate who is a champion,” says SEIU Healthcare Wisconsin vice president Bruce Colburn, “and not somebody who is more of the same, or wants to be in the middle of the road.” Once Wisconsin’s elections board certifies the petitions, dates will be set for a general election (expected in spring or summer) and a Democratic primary preceding it. By then, there could be a consensus candidate – or not.
In an early sign that “Anybody but Walker” won’t cut it, a rumored candidacy by Walker’s 2010 Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, has been met by public and private discouragement from unions charging that his own hostile relations with public sector workers should be disqualifying.
“I would hope that Tom Barrett understands the issues here, and why he might not fit the matrix of what a champion looks like,” says Marty Biel, executive director of the largest local of the state’s largest district council of the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME).
One public face of the Wisconsin uprising, Fire Fighters Union president Mahlon Mitchell, has been publicly weighing his own run, though it appears unlikely. Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca, a prominent Walker antagonist, is a potential candidate. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, who has often sided with the GOP, announced her candidacy on Wednesday and touted her role as one of the “Wisconsin 14” senators who fled the state last year in opposition to Walker’s bill.
The state’s largest teachers union announced Wednesday it’s backing the other declared candidate, former county executive Kathleen Falk. But Madison Teachers Inc. president John Matthews, whose union’s mass walkout helped jump-start the capitol occupation, says he wants more candidates to join the race. If there’s a theme here, it’s this: Labor expects to play a major role in vetting a candidate, and electability alone won’t be enough this time.
But it won’t just be the candidate setting the tone; so will the tactics. To channel, and resemble, an actual popular movement, much of the campaign will have to take place in face-to-face conversations rather than just on TV. The more progressives take the campaign door to door, the more populist it will be – and that may be where the campaign is won or lost. Activists expect the message on the doors will be more aggressive than whatever the candidate’s own message is. “It’s pretty clear that when people call him ‘1 percent Walker,’ that resonates,” says Colburn, who adds that labor will supplement traditional voter canvassing with rallies around the state.
Then there’s the message of the TV ad wars, of which Americans for Prosperity’s $700,000 is just a harbinger. Much the advertising in the Senate recalls came not from the Democratic candidates or party, but from the labor-community We Are Wisconsin coalition.
“Historically it was labor and the Democratic Party that partnered in the political process,” says Biel. “But here the change is, it’s labor and the community that partner in the political process.” We Are Wisconsin’s ads helped establish the campaign’s populist edge, and some Democrats’ ads reinforced it. The more third-party groups dominate advertising, the more populist it’s likely to be. A spokesperson for Democracy for America says the national group will support We Are Wisconsin’s efforts.
All of these influences will be mediated by the events unfolding outside the campaign over the next few months. Positive economic signs that buoy Obama’s reelection chances would do the same for Walker. If the economy improves, progressives may be more hesitant to skewer Walker as representing the 1 percent — but that kind of contrast will become even more important.
Even more significant may be the metastasizing corruption controversy embroiling Walker. One of the former Walker aides charged with illegal campaigning Tuesday pled guilty as part of a deal in which she’ll testify against other Walker associates. Walker himself has retained a pair of criminal defense attorneys to accompany him to a meeting with Milwaukee’s district attorney. If the scandal intensifies, it could become the centerpiece of a cautious, moderate campaign that skirts ideology and makes the case Walker is just too corrupt and divisive to serve. Or the scandal could be folded into a populist narrative in which Walker’s alleged crimes are portrayed as an extension of his corporate agenda.
“The message we started here has gone out [through] the Occupy movement and really resonated,” says Democracy Addicts co-founder Ed Knutson, who’s been active in last year’s capitol demonstrations and Occupy Wall Street. Knutson expects “a strong populist element” to the campaign. “There’s a real opportunity here to … move it a little bit further back to the left.”
The AFL-CIO’s Bloomingdale says the work of the recall – long days volunteering in the cold – has raised activists’ expectations. “People didn’t go out and collect those signatures in those conditions for nothing.”
Josh Eidelson is a freelance journalist and a contributor at The American Prospect and In These Times. After receiving his MA in Political Science, he worked as a union organizer for five years. More Josh Eidelson.
Romney releases birth certificate
Trump goes on another birther rant, and Mitt misspells "America." Wednesday's top political stories
FILE - In this Feb. 2, 2012, file photo, Donald Trump greets Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney during a news conference in Las Vegas. Romney is set to clinch the Republican nomination for president on Tuesday with a win in the Texas primary, a feat of endurance for a candidate who came up short four years ago and watched this year as voters flirted with a carousel of front-runners before eventually warming to him. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson, File) (Credit: AP) - Mitt Romney may just win this thing: Surprising no one, the candidate officially captured the last of the 1,144 delegates he needs to secure the GOP nomination last night in Texas, despite months of punditry about the possibility that the race could go all the way to the GOP convention.
But maybe Romney shouldn’t even bother. As Reuters reports, astrologists foresee that Obama will be reelected. Still, it may not be easy: “The ingress of Saturn into Scorpio may trouble him,” one said. “It won’t cost him the election, but it may indicate difficulties in the first half of his second term.”
Continue Reading CloseAlex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at aseitz-wald@salon.com, and follow him on Twitter @aseitzwald. More Alex Seitz-Wald.
Florida purging voter rolls
Governor Rick Scott moves forward with a plan to disqualify thousands of mostly Hispanic and Democratic voters
Rick Scott (Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid) Hated Florida Governor Rick Scott has a great idea: A big, massive purge of the state’s voter roll right before a sure-to-be-close presidential election. The governor ordered his secretary of state to compile a list of registered voters who might not be citizens, based on an unreliable and out-of-date state motor vehicle administration database. The secretary of state made a list and then realized the list was not actually very useful or accurate. Then he resigned, and now Scott is just purging away.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
Mitt Romney: Politics “like a sport”
What makes Mitt tick? The nominee says he likes politics because "I can't compete in competitive sports very well"
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney gestures as he leaves a campaign event in Hillsborough, New Hampshire May 18, 2012. (Credit: Reuters/Jessica Rinaldi) Mitt Romney may have unintentionally opened a window onto his somewhat obscured motivations for running for president in an interview with the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan today, explaining that he likes sports, but isn’t very good at them, so he does politics instead.
Asked about whether he likes “the game” of politics, the presumed GOP nominee replied, “I like competition, and I think the game [of politics] is like a sport for old guys. I mean, you know, I can’t compete in competitive sports very well, but I can compete in politics, and there’s the — what was the old ABC ‘Wide World of Sports’ slogan? ‘The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.’ The only difference is victory is still a thrill, but I don’t feel agony in loss.”
Continue Reading CloseAlex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at aseitz-wald@salon.com, and follow him on Twitter @aseitzwald. More Alex Seitz-Wald.
Trump insinuates self into Romney campaign
How a toxic attention-seeker (not Newt) will likely end up speaking at the RNC
Businessman and real estate developer Donald Trump (L) greets Mitt Romney after endorsing his candidacy for president at the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada February 2, 2012. (Credit: Reuters/Steve Marcus) So. Donald Trump again? Are we really doing this again? I guess we are!
There were stories, recently, in the usual places, about how Trump was being seriously considered for a major speech at the Republican Convention. I did not dwell on the story much, because I assumed that these rumors were a product of Donald Trump’s prodigious vanity and powerful imagination. Ha ha ha, sure, the Republicans will definitely want the stupid make-believe TV mogul who pretends to fire people for a living, at their big party.
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Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
“Battlefield Earth”: Romney vs. the Psychlos
The GOP's standard bearer calls L. Ron Hubbard's bizarro sci-fi epic his favorite novel. Is that cause for concern?
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney reads a book to children in Manchester(Credit: Brian Snyder / Reuters) There’s a scene near the end of “Battlefield Earth,” Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard’s 1982 science fiction epic, that may explain a bit of why Mitt Romney has said (most recently this week) that it’s his favorite novel.
Our hero, Jonnie Goodboy Tyler, has just finished taking down the Psychlo empire, which has ruled Earth for the past millennium and has dominated most of the known 16 universes for going on 300,000 years. Now Jonnie has to negotiate with the alien powers who are jockeying to fill the power vacuum left behind, and things aren’t looking so good for the human race.
Continue Reading CloseDaniel Oppenheimer's book "Turncoats: The Journey from Left to Right and How It’s Transformed America," a political and intellectual history of six prominent American intellectuals who journeyed from the left to the right of the political spectrum, will be published by Simon and Schuster More Daniel Oppenheimer.
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