Salon's great races of 2006
The most important congressional elections in over a decade are fast approaching. Here's our guide to the 10 races to watch as the Democrats fight to take back Congress.
By Walter Shapiro
Read more: Politics, News, Walter Shapiro, 2006 Elections
1. Connecticut: Sen. Joe Lieberman (D)
2. Iowa: Rep. Leonard Boswell (D)
3. Missouri: Sen. Jim Talent (R)
4. Montana: Sen. Conrad Burns (R)
5. New Mexico: Rep. Heather Wilson (R)
6. Ohio: Ken Blackwell (R)
7. Pennsylvania: Rep. Curt Weldon (R)
8. Rhode Island: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R)
9. Virginia: Sen. George Allen (R)
10. Kentucky: Rep. Anne Northup (R)
July 13, 2006 | Beware any armchair pundit or talking head who confidently rattles off the precise Senate seats that will change party in November or the number of House seats the Democrats will pick up. There are things in life that are simply unknowable this far in advance, despite the demands of TV producers and desperate-for-certainty campaign junkies. And the final outcome of Election 2006 and the big question of whether the Democrats will win at least one chamber of Congress rank right up there as a great conundrum.
The underlying problem is largely logistics. If you count small-state gubernatorial battles (such as Republican Frank Murkowski's uphill reelection bid in Alaska), there are well over 100 seriously contested races that will dictate the shape of Congress and national politics in the final two years of the Bush presidency. No news organization can begin to cover the intricacies of all these contests on the ground. Instead, both the media and the political community try to keep track by slavishly following the polls, donning green eye shades to tote up the money and trying to divine national trends that will theoretically overwhelm local factors.
While Salon has humbler resources than TV networks or great daily newspapers, we are animated by an abiding belief in the need for on-the-scene reporting and the value of political journalism that reflects reality rather than heart-on-your-sleeve hopes. As a result, we have decided that the best way to cover the most important congressional elections in more than a decade is to shrewdly pick our shots -- focusing our energies on political contests that are emblematic, intriguing and, yes, important.
So we are unveiling what we call Salon's "Great Races." These are the campaigns that we pledge to write about from ground level at least once and, in many cases, revisit between now and November. This list is not a rigid manifesto. There are other campaigns we also plan to cover if the fireworks are too irresistible to miss (social conservative Republican Rick Santorum's desperate bid to hold his Pennsylvania Senate seat in the face of daunting polls), the political symbolism is too potent (GOP anti-environmental scourge Richard Pombo's House reelection battle in California's Central Valley) or the fun quotient is simply too high (Katherine Harris' comically inept Senate run in Florida). We should add the fine-print proviso that other aspects of Election 2006 may also prove g-r-r-r-eat, if the political landscape suddenly shifts.
But like a candidate distilling a library of position papers into a few 30-second commercials, the following campaigns represent our statement of priorities. Our list is partly shaped by the belief that while high-visibility statewide races for the Senate and governor dominate the headlines, the central story line in November will be whether the Democrats corral the 15 seats they need to win the House. So without further ado -- drum roll, please -- here, in alphabetical order by state, are Salon's officially designated Great Races.
Connecticut Senate Primary
Incumbent Joe Lieberman vs. Ned Lamont, the grudge match of the season on Aug. 8. What started as a quixotic challenge by mega-rich cable TV entrepreneur Lamont to Lieberman's unapologetically hawkish stance on Iraq and his bipartisan ways in the Senate has escalated into a titanic clash of ideologies that calls into question the right of Al Gore's 2000 running mate to call himself a Democrat. With Lamont surging, Lieberman is preparing to run as an independent if he loses the low-turnout primary, which means that the fratricidal contest could run through November. Reliably blue-state Connecticut is also center stage for Democratic hopes of winning the House, since all three GOP incumbents in the state are in tight races. Our canary-in-the-mine-shaft race here is the generational battle in the 5th District in the northwest corner of the state between 71-year-old GOP incumbent Nancy Johnson and 32-year-old Chris Murphy, a state senator.
Iowa House Battles
This is a state where judges draw congressional district lines and, as a result, House races tend to be competitive. One of the most up-for-grabs seats in the nation is the open GOP-held seat in the 1st District along the Mississippi River. Leonard Boswell in Des Moines, who always faces a daunting reelection fight in a district that split 50-50 in the 2004 presidential race, was dubbed by the National Journal as the Democratic Party's "most vulnerable incumbent." Adding to the spectacle is Iowa's clout as the first 2008 caucus state. This means that every presidential contender (Hillary Clinton aside) will concoct excuses to campaign for these embattled House candidates, while selflessly picking up some early race-to-the-White-House supporters along the way.
Next page: Revenge of the blue states...