Pennsylvania's extreme makeover

If the voting patterns of Philly's northeast suburbs are as reliable a predictor as usual, disgust with Iraq and Bush turned red states blue.

By Rebecca Traister

Read more: U.S. Senate, Politics, News, Rebecca Traister, 2006 Elections

REUTERS/Tim Shaffer

Pennsylvania Democratic senatorial candidate Robert Casey Jr. celebrates his midterm election victory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, November 7, 2006.

Nov. 8, 2006 | MONTGOMERY COUNTY, Pa. -- On Tuesday night, Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum was beaten by Robert Casey Jr. in an election that was once supposed to be a nail-biter, but turned into a rout, with Casey taking an estimated 60 percent of the vote. The crucial result edged Democrats closer to possible control of the Senate, just as many of the state's Democratic congressional candidates, including Joe Sestak, Patrick Murphy and Chris Carney, unseated Republicans, helping Democrats take control of the House of Representatives.

It was all part of the Democratic tide that swept many remnants of Newt Gingrich's 1994 revolution out to sea. And in Philadelphia's traditionally Republican northeast suburbs, you could feel the tide moving in. At a massive Democratic rally three days before the election, the head of Montgomery County's Democratic Committee, Marcel Groen, told the crowd, "Many of you have come with me on a journey that started a long time ago, a time when Republicans controlled this county, when people were afraid their trash wasn't going to be picked up because they were Democrats. Those times are gone forever."

If Groen sounded confident, he had good reason. He was addressing a crowd of 1,500 people amped to hear state and national party stars like Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama and Ed Rendell. But Groen was also staring out at the changed face of Philadelphia's northern suburbs, where a confluence of new residents, popular Democratic politicians and the frustrations of affluent, socially moderate Republicans has turned formerly red neighborhoods blue in sync with the rest of the country.

Twenty years ago, Montgomery County -- a labyrinth of overlapping boroughs and townships including Abington, Cheltenham, Jenkintown, Norristown and Lower and Upper Merion -- was so Republican that on primary days, my parents used to walk straight to the lone Democratic voting machine, while everyone else waited for one of three Republican booths. Those were the Reagan years, when these suburbs -- about 80 percent white with a mix of blue-collar and wealthy fiscal conservatives -- resembled others around the country. As recently as 2000, Montgomery County was home to 272,615 registered Republicans and 173,503 Democrats. Six years later there were 251,120 Republicans and 211,348 Democrats registered to vote on Tuesday.

Perhaps emblematic of the county is one of its boroughs, Abington, which for nearly 20 years has been considered one of those magical bellwether suburbs, despite its majority of Republicans.

In 1990, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats 60 percent to 28 percent in Abington; it was to 49-42 in 2004. With a population of 57,000 and a median household income of $45,000, Abington rarely votes a straight party line, and as party registration has moved marginally closer to equilibrium, the tipped balance often predicts state and national outcomes.

Abington voted (with the rest of Montgomery County and Pennsylvania) for Republicans Santorum and Arlen Specter in each of their winning Senate bids. It also picked Republican Gov. Tom Ridge, and Democratic Gov. Rendell. Abington -- along with the state of Pennsylvania -- chose George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Al Gore in 2000. It wasn't until 2004 that the district lost its winning mojo by tipping too far to the left, voting for John Kerry. (Pennsylvania also went for the Massachusetts senator.) In 2004, Terry Madonna, local political analyst and director of the Center for Politics and Political Affairs at Franklin & Marshall who has been a Pennsylvania political analyst for over 30 years, wrote, "As goes Abington, so goes the nation."

Even more mercurial has been congressional representation from the area. Abington makes up the bulk of Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, which Madonna described in 2004 as "the most competitive congressional district in the state, and one of the five most competitive in the country." After Republican Rep. Larry Coughlin retired in 1992, Democrat Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky was elected. She was defeated by Republican Jon D. Fox in 1994, and he in turn was defeated by Democrat Joe Hoeffel in 1998. Hoeffel resigned to run unsuccessfully for Senate in 2004, and was succeeded by Democrat Allyson Schwartz, who was reelected on Tuesday. That's four shifts of party power in 14 years.

For those who have lived here for decades, the political pull to the left has rendered the area almost unrecognizable. In a community where Democratic lawn signs have long been stolen, ripped up and defaced, this year they lined the streets; only the stray Casey placard was spray-painted with "W's." While in the elementary school mock elections of my youth I was repeatedly dismayed to be the only one in my class voting for Democrats, in 2004, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that at Copper Beach elementary, the school that replaced my alma mater, John Kerry won 585 to 398.

So what's changed? Everybody here has got a theory. At Saturday's rally, local state representative candidate Rick Taylor, who pulled out a surprise victory against 12-year incumbent Eugene McGill on Tuesday, credited antipathy toward our commander in chief, swearing that in Republican homes he's visited he's been told, "I have got to make amends. I voted for George Bush and I feel bad. I am voting a straight Democratic ticket."

Next page: A Republican friend admits shamefacedly, "I voted for him," every time she sees an image of Bush