My letter to the most important man in American politics

In which I implore Bill Gardner to save the New Hampshire primary.

By Walter Shapiro

Read more: Bill Bradley, Florida, Politics, Iowa, Walter Shapiro, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Opinion, Howard Dean, 2008 election

Oct. 15, 2007 | Bill Gardner, the doggedly nonpartisan New Hampshire secretary of state, is the keeper of the flame of the first-in-the-nation primary, a modern-day Horatio at the Bridge holding off the uninformed hordes who fail to appreciate this small New England state's unique status in the political firmament. Unlike anyone else in the galaxy, Gardner boasts the superpower to schedule his state's presidential primary by personal fiat without consulting the governor, the state Legislature or either political party. Gardner is guided by a single North Star -- the wording of the New Hampshire statute that decrees that the secretary of state shall set a day for the primary "which is 7 days or more preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election."

Never before in his three-decade career as the Man Who Sets the Date has Gardner faced a more daunting challenge than in the 2008 presidential season. The primaries are starting earlier than ever, with roughly half the nation slated to vote in a single day, Feb. 5. Despite the opposition of both national parties, particularly the Democrats, Michigan has horned in on the early action by slating its outlaw primary for Jan. 15. Trapped by the inexorable 31-days-hath-January calendar math, Gardner does not have much room to maneuver.

His decision, likely to be announced with a puff of white smoke early next month, affects more than the holiday plans of political reporters and the first-quarter earnings of the New Hampshire hotel-motel industry. Seemingly small matters -- such as the interval of time between the opening-gun Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary -- can play an oversize role in choosing the presidential nominees.

Also, the entire tradition of starting the presidential campaigns in small states like Iowa and New Hampshire is already in jeopardy. A maladroit move by Gardner could permanently destroy the Norman Rockwell tradition of the candidates' being grilled by crusty New Englanders in high-school gyms and (still occasionally) living rooms. In the future, candidates may well run for president from TV studios and campaign jets, never venturing more than five miles from a major airport and using voters as little more than visual props for see-the-leader-amid-the-people commercials.

These daunting pressures of the present and dire visions of the future prompt the following open letter to the Most Important Public Official in Politics:

To: William Gardner

Secretary of State of New Hampshire and the Protector of the Primary

From: Walter Shapiro

Subject: The Fateful Date (What Else?)

As a reporter who covered his first New Hampshire primary in 1980 and who reveres its democratic values and traditions, I feel compelled to offer some scheduling advice from the sidelines.

You remain as inscrutable as Alan Greenspan before his memoirs, but I note that the Washington Post has divined from a recent interview that you are tempted to move the primary to December. (After our 90-minute phone conversation in July, about all I divined was that the New Hampshire primary would indeed take place sometime in 2007 or 2008.)

A word of warning: If you try to preserve the primacy of the primary by primly picking a Tuesday in December, you risk New Hampshire's being ridiculed by the late-night comics for voting on 2008 presidential candidates in 2007. As you know all too well, New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status is hanging by a thread. And holding the primary while the Christmas decorations are still up in Concord will seem to most Americans as absurd as beginning leaf-peeping season in February.

New Hampshire did not cause the front-loading of the system (your primary has been at the head of the class since 1920), but your state will be blamed for it. And in 2012, New Hampshire and Iowa would probably be shoved offstage to be replaced by a national primary, open only to candidates with household names who can raise $150 million before a single vote is cast.

Because of your concerned public comments about Michigan voting on Jan. 15, it is widely assumed that you will opt for Tuesday, Jan. 8. But that seemingly safe choice would mean that New Hampshire would be reduced to a way station between the Iowa caucuses and the Michigan (only Republicans will be competing) and South Carolina primaries. In short, Jan. 8 is a date that would squeeze New Hampshire to near irrelevance.

At the moment, the most likely choices for the evening Iowa caucuses are Thursday, Jan. 3 (currently favored by the state Republican Party) or Saturday, Jan. 5. Since Iowans have to caucus in person, male turnout may be depressed by conflicts with football, whether it is the Orange Bowl (Jan. 3) or the NFL and AFL wild-card playoffs (Jan. 5). Friday night, Jan. 4, is out of the question because of the religion built around high-school basketball games, though the Jewish Sabbath provides a far more public-spirited excuse.

Next page: In 2004, Howard Dean -- who endured an epic pratfall in Iowa -- charted a rebound as the New Hampshire primary neared