In the polls


Geraldine Sealey
January 19, 2004 7:39PM (UTC)

The final Zogby tracking poll before Iowa has Kerry at 25 percent, Dean at 22 percent, Edwards at 21 percent and Gephardt at 18 percent. Margin of error: +/- 4.5 percent.

The Des Moines Register's pre-caucus poll Sunday showed Kerry with 26 percent, Edwards 23 percent, Dean 20 percent, Gephardt 18 percent. Margin of error +/- 4 percent.

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The latest ARG tracking poll in New Hampshire shows Dean at 28 percent, Clark at 20 percent and Kerry right behind Clark at 19 percent. Margin of error +/- 4 percent.

An interesting detail in ARG's analysis is just how many likely voters in next week's New Hampshire primary are up for grabs -- 45 percent. The pollsters reach that number by asking people how committed they are to each candidate. So far, Dean has the most committed support: 23 percent of his 28 percent say they definitely belong to Dean. Clark's committeds are 11 percent out of 20 percent. And Kerry's committeds are 10 percent of his 19 percent overall.

The New York Times poll on Bush's performance ratings -- war on terror good, economy and domestic policy not so good -- had some interesting numbers on how divided the country is. We're even split on whether Bush has divided us.

"When asked whether Mr. Bush had done more to unite the country or divide it, the public was split -- 43 percent said he had brought Americans together, 44 percent said he had divided them.

"When given a choice between an unnamed Democrat and Mr. Bush, 43 percent of the registered voters polled said they would vote for Mr. Bush, while 45 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.


Geraldine Sealey

Geraldine Sealey is senior news editor at Salon.com.

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