In the polls


Geraldine Sealey
January 22, 2004 8:27PM (UTC)

The ARG daily tracking poll in New Hampshire: Kerry 27 percent, Dean 22 percent, Clark 19 percent, Edwards 9 percent, Undecided 14 percent.

The ARG analysis shows Dean's favorable/unfavorables moving in an unfavorable direction for him. In the Jan. 19 poll, Dean's unfavorable rating was 19 percent. In the Jan. 21 poll, 30 percent were unfavorable.

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ARG also compares Dean's situation to Bill Clinton's in 1992, when Clinton dropped from 37 percent to 25 percent in 5 days. "By the eighth day of his drop, however, Clinton was able to begin to regain support (by appearing on "60 Minutes" and holding a televised town meeting in New Hampshire, among other things). The Dean campaign does not have the luxury of time because the Clinton model would have Dean just beginning to regain support on primary day. Also, Clinton's campaign responded immediately to Clinton's drop."

(Note: Dean and wife Judith will give their first joint network interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer at 10 p.m. ET, after the candidates debate in New Hampshire starting at 8 p.m. ET, airing on FOX News Channel.

As ABC's The Note says of the Dean's Sawyer sit-down: "The comparisons to Bill and Hill's post-Super Bowl '60 Minutes' interview in 1992 are as obvious as they are relevant. If Judith Steinberg can stand ('sit' actually) by her man in a way that recontextualizes him as a kindly New England doctor who wants to ride a grassroots wave to make fundamental change, perhaps Dean can turn this around.")

A Boston Herald poll has Kerry 10-points ahead of Dean among likely primary N.H. voters. Kerry 31 percent, Dean 21 percent, Clark 16 percent, Edwards 11 percent.

The Boston Globe's latest N.H. poll has Kerry at 31 percent, Dean at 21 percent, Clark at 16 percent and Edwards 11 percent.

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Zogby has Kerry at 27 percent, Dean at 24 percent, Clark at 15 percent, Edwards at 8 percent, Lieberman at 6 percent and Undecideds at 17 percent in N.H.

Jan. 21 note from Zogby: "Kerry not only jumps into the lead, but today his lead was commanding. His lead in todays sample alone was 32 percent-21 percent. Remember, we still have one-third of the sample taken before the Iowa caucus. Also remember that Kerry is known in New Hampshire.

"Dean still has a handsome lead among 18-29 year-olds -- the World Wrestling Federation Generation. His Iowa speech had no negative impact on young voters at all in New Hampshire. Aside from young voters, Kerry is either tied or leads among pretty much everyone else. Clark continues to lose a point a day. Edwards does not seem to have gotten a big bounce, at least not yet. I operate from a 48-Hour Rule: it normally takes two full days before we see a major impact from any event."


Geraldine Sealey

Geraldine Sealey is senior news editor at Salon.com.

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