Missouri: It would be a shock if anyone but Kerry wins here. Zogby's last poll has him ahead with 50 percent support. Arizona: Clark comes closest to Kerry, but still trails him by an average of about nine points in the most recent polls. South Carolina: Edwards leads in most polls, but Zogby's latest shows Kerry just three points behind. Oklahoma: Clark has an edge here, but polls show a tight race with Kerry and Edwards not far behind. New Mexico: Kerry's ahead, but more than a quarter of voters in the most recent poll said they were undecided. Delaware: Kerry has convincing lead here. North Dakota: Ditto.
Upcoming races: Grim news for Dean in Michigan (Feb. 7), where he hopes to resuscitate his flagging campaign. In a Detroit News poll of likely Michigan voters, Kerry got 56 percent of the vote to Dean's 13 percent. The margin of error is +/- 6 points.
Geraldine Sealey is senior news editor at Salon.com.