In the polls


Geraldine Sealey
May 25, 2004 11:35PM (UTC)

What Americans are thinking, according to:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup: The race for the White House remains tied, with Kerry at 49 percent and Bush at 47% among likely voters. More Americans disapprove (49%) than approve (47%) of the president's job performance. About 8 in 10 likely voters (but 7 in 10 registered voters) say their votes are firm and will not change before Election Day.

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CBS News: Bush's overall job approval rating has slipped to an all-time low of 41 percent and has shown the first significant signs of undermining his support among Republicans.

Wall Street Journal's Battleground poll: Kerry leads in 12 of the 16 states in this poll, including five states that Mr. Bush won in 2000. Mr. Bush leads in four states, including one -- Iowa -- that voted Democratic in 2000. The 12 states in which Mr. Kerry leads have a total of 148 votes in the Electoral College, while the four in which Mr. Bush is ahead have 29 electoral votes.

The GENEXT poll of young voters: Only 47 percent of young voters approve of Bush's performance in office. A mere 40 percent of 18-29 year olds think that America is headed in the right direction, while 58 percent of young voters think the country is on the wrong track. Still, the under-30s seemed unwilling to embrace John Kerry. Only 44 percent of young voters said they would vote for Kerry for president in a hypothetical election, compared to 42 percent who said they would vote for Bush, which could in part be explained by the "Nader factor." Nader draws 10 percent of the youth vote in the latest poll, down a point from a month earlier.

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What Iraqis are thinking, according to:

The Gallup Poll Tuesday Briefing (no url, sorry): Gallup's nationwide poll of 3,444 Iraqis indicates nearly 7 in 10 (69%) believe their lives (or the lives of their family members) would be in danger if they were viewed as cooperating with the Coalition Provisional Authority. Only about one in five Iraqis (22%) told Gallup they disagree with this assessment, and the percentage falls to just 13% outside of the largely self-governing Kurdish north.

The Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies: Six months ago, only 1% of Iraqis backed Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The new nationwide survey of 1,640 people finds 32% strongly support al-Sadr, and 36% support him somewhat. The same survey, conducted in late April, shows that 88% of Iraqis now view U.S. and other foreign troops here as an occupation force; only 7% consider them liberators.

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Geraldine Sealey

Geraldine Sealey is senior news editor at Salon.com.

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