Following the Gallup, CBS, and ABC snap polls last night, the polling firm Democracy Corps [pdf] has released what is so far the most thorough post-debate poll. It not only confirms the snap-poll consensus that Kerry won the match-up, but suggests that the debate changed some people's votes.
Before the debate, the likely voters that Democracy Corps surveyed were deadlocked, with 48 percent each for Bush and Kerry. After it was over, Kerry led 50-47 among those who had watched the debate.
Democracy Corps also found that during the third debate, Kerry continued to improve his profile. "This was very much a personal victory for Kerry. There was a net 8-point shift in favorability: positive responses rose 5 points to 48 percent; negative ones dropped 3 points to 42 percent.
"On strong convictions, Kerry rose 6 points to 63 percent. On honest and trustworthy, up 6 points to 57 percent. On gives me confidence, up 5 points to 52 percent. On likeable, up 5 points to 62 percent. On having clear plans, Kerry gained 6 points in comparison to Bush and ended up ahead (45 to 42 percent)."
Of course, some skepticism is in order: Democracy Corps is a Democratic polling firm founded by Kerry advisor Bob Shrum, and the poll was produced with the help of James Carville.