In the polls


Jeff Horwitz
November 2, 2004 10:03PM (UTC)

On election day, most national surveys are showing a slight lead for Bush -- a lead that Mystery Pollster observes is remarkably similar to the one they thought Bush had in 2000.

Her are the most recent likely voter results:

Marist: Bush 49, Kerry 50

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George Washington University: Bush 50, Kerry 46

CBS: Bush 49, Kerry 47

Rasmussen: Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5 (this an election day "projection," not a survey result.)

Washington Post: Bush 49, Kerry 48

And the registered voter results:

Marist: Bush 48, Kerry 48

The Economist: Bush 47, Kerry 50

If you had any doubts that 2004 would be one of the best-attended elections in decades, take a look at Gallup's voter turnout analysis. Every one of their predictors is off the charts. Gallup's guess as to which previous election year the 2004 turnout statistics will most closely resemble is 1968, when a full 61 percent of Americans voted. That would mean well over 120 million voters, which bodes well for John Kerry, who frequently outperforms the president among registered voters.

"If John Kerry does win narrowly,"The Economist poll concludes, "he can thank a collapse in Ralph Nader's support. In 2000, Mr Nader won almost 3% of the popular vote. He now looks set to win just 1% this time."

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In light of the final state polls, it looks like the nation may see another run-in with the Electoral College. Survey USA and Zogby surveys in several battleground states predict a very close election, most of all in Florida. Full results can be found on the Zogby and Survey USA Web sites, but here are the big three:

Zogbys final poll calls the Florida race in Kerrys favor, 48-47. Survey USA sees a 1-point lead the other way around, 49-48 for Bush.

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In Ohio, Zogby says Bush leads 48-44. Survey USA agrees that Bush leads, but calls it a little closer, 49-47 for the president.

And in Pennsylvania, Survey USA gives Kerry the slightest of leads, 49-48. Zogbys gives Kerry a more generous advantage, 50-45.


Jeff Horwitz

MORE FROM Jeff Horwitz


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