Someone is going to look silly Tuesday night

Four political analysts predict Democratic gains. Then there's Tony Snow.


Tim Grieve
November 7, 2006 7:12AM (UTC)

Five rounds of election-eve commentary, or "One of These Things Is Not Like the Others":

Political analyst Charlie Cook: "Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governors' races ... There is no evidence of a trend in the generic ballot test."

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Evans-Novak Political Report: "Democrats are set to gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and five governorships in tomorrow's elections ... The White House presents, as its rosiest scenario, a loss of 12 House seats. This is not entirely impossible, but it is too optimistic for the realistic observer."

University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato: "The Crystal Ball still sees 4, 5 or 6 seats going to the Democrats, resting party control of the Senate squarely on the edge of the butter knife ... When we add up all of our predictions, Democrats gain 29 seats in the House to command the same size majority the GOP currently holds, 232-203."

Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg: "Democratic gain of 30-36 seats" in the House. "Democratic gain of 4-7 seats" in the Senate.

White House press secretary Tony Snow: "Well, what's not to love, Rush? Here I'm working for the president of the United States; we're in the middle of an exciting election campaign. We got a lot of 'I told you so' moments right now because polls are tightening and people are thinking about issues and saying, 'Wait a minute. The president's got an idea about how to proceed and the Democrats got empty saddlebags and all they're doing is throwing mud at him.' So, yeah, it's a great time to be there. In a funny way I guess everything I've done in the media business for the last 27 years sort of fits into the press secretary job. So I just love it."


Tim Grieve

Tim Grieve is a senior writer and the author of Salon's War Room blog.

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2006 Elections War Room

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