Shocking news: NFL draft "Experts" aren't

Cold, Hard Football Facts administers a beating to Mel Kiper Jr. and his ilk.

By King Kaufman
May 2, 2008 3:30AM (UTC)
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If you haven't got anything good to say about anybody, come sit next to me.

The excellent, if cold and hard, site Cold, Hard Football Facts did a number this week on the various NFL draft "experts," especially ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.,  who clutter up the airwaves and columns at this time of year by going on and on about a subject they don't know much about. 


Working this column's "so-called experts usually aren't any smarter than you or me or that doofus down the bar" street, Cold, Hard Football Facts looked at the mock first round published by six "experts" -- the scare quotes are CHFF's -- and found that those worthies guessed right on  a combined 37 of 186 picks. And, as CHFF notes, they had a lot of help. 

Jake Long's name was already written on the card after the Miami Dolphins signed him the week before the draft, and CHFF says just about everybody knew from news reports that the St. Louis Rams would take Chris Long with the second pick, the Oakland Raiders would take Darren McFadden with the No. 4 and the Dallas Cowboys were hoping to get Felix Long at No. 22, all of which happened.

"So, the two Longs and the two Arkansas running backs combined to provide 21 of the combined 37 picks our six mock-draft 'experts' got correct," Cold Hard Football Facts writes. "Other than those four players, they were just 16 of 162 (9.9 percent) through the rest of the first round."


CHFF notes that while it's painfully obvious the Atlanta Falcons need a franchise quarterback, none of the experts predicted the club would take, hey, here's an idea, the top quarterback on the board, Matt Ryan. Atlanta's pick: Matt Ryan.

"Bottom line: mock drafts are useless," CHFF writes. "Do not waste another second of your life on the mock draft."

OK, I won't. But I'll gladly waste about 180 seconds to enjoy Cold, Hard Football Facts putting the wood to the experts after the 2009 draft.

King Kaufman

King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr

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