The fair share chart

How many pennants and World Series titles would each team have won if success were distributed evenly?


King Kaufman
October 29, 2008 12:55AM (UTC)

This chart shows each major league team's "fair share" of league pennants and World Series titles in the World Series era, along with how many pennants and titles each team has actually won.

"Fair share" is defined as a straight probability: If a team plays in an eight-team league, its fair share of pennants is one for every eight years and its fair share of World Series titles, assuming the other league is also eight teams at the time, is one every 16 years. The World Series era began in 1903. There were league champions but no World Series in 1904, and no league champions or World Series in 1994.

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Each team is listed by its current incarnation, but the totals include all previous versions of the team. For example, "Oakland" includes the Philadelphia and Kansas City A's.

American
League
Fair share
pennants
Actual
pennants
Fair share
titles
Actual
titles
N.Y. Yankees 10.9 39 5.4 26
Oakland 10.9 15* 5.4 9
Boston 10.9 11 5.4 7
Detroit 10.9 10 5.4 4
Baltimore 10.9 7 5.4 3
Minnesota 10.9 6 5.4 3
Chi. White Sox 10.9 5 5.4 3
Cleveland 10.9 5 5.4 2
L.A. Angels 3.7 1 1.9 1
Texas 3.7 0 1.9 0
Kansas City 2.9 2 1.5 1
Toronto 2.2 2 1.1 2
Seattle 2.2 0 1.1 0
Tampa Bay 0.8 1 0.4 0#
National
League
Fair share
pennants
Actual
pennants
Fair share
titles
Actual
titles
L.A. Dodgers 11.1 18 5.4 6
San Francisco 11.1 18* 5.4 5
St. Louis 11.1 17 5.4 10
Chi. Cubs 11.1 10 5.4 2
Cincinnati 11.1 9 5.4 5
Atlanta 11.1 9 5.4 3
Pittsburgh 11.1 7 5.4 5
Philadelphia 11.1 6 5.4 1#
N.Y. Mets 3.7 4 1.8 2
Houston 3.7 1 1.8 0
San Diego 3.0 2 1.5 0
Washington 3.0 0 1.5 0
Milwaukee 2.8 1 1.5 0
Florida 1.0 2 0.5 2
Colorado 1.0 1 0.5 0
Arizona 0.7 1 0.4 1

* Includes 1904 pennant, though no World Series was played.
# In contention for 2008 title.


King Kaufman

King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com. Facebook / Twitter / Tumblr

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