Today's numbers from Gallup in the presidential tracking poll show Mitt Romney two points ahead of Barack Obama among likely voters, 49-47 percent.
Among registered voters, Obama still leads 49-46 percent.
From Gallup's analysis:
First, the registered voter trends suggest that Romney's initial gains from his strong performance in last week's debate may be short-lived. Second, Gallup's inaugural likely voter results suggest that Romney, at this point, appears to have a turnout advantage, meaning that Obama will need to develop a strong lead among all registered voters in order to be assured of winning the actual popular vote.
Jillian Rayfield is an Assistant News Editor for Salon, focusing on politics. Follow her on Twitter at @jillrayfield or email her at email@example.com.