I spent a depressing amount of time this weekend trying to think up a scenario in which someone might say the following without being motivated, to at least some degree, by malign intent.
“We have got this tailspin of culture, in our inner cities in particular, of men not working and just generations of men not even thinking about working or learning the value and the culture of work, and so there is a real culture problem here that has to be dealt with."
What I came up with was strained and unlikely, but troubling if true.
In case you slept through last week, the person who said this was congressman and one-time GOP vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan. It ignited a fairly heated debate over whether he was intentionally trafficking in racial code words to pander to white conservatives. Ryan claims he spoke inarticulately and was thus misunderstood. For proponents of the dog-whistle theory, the fact that Ryan cited Charles Murray, author of "The Bell Curve," was the smoking gun.
For my part, I don't think they need a smoking gun, because Occam's razor does all the dirty work. You can take Murray completely out of the equation and the likelihood that Ryan wasn't at least subconsciously playing to the prejudices of resentful or racist whites is pretty low.
But let's assume Ryan's playing it straight, and his defenders, like Slate's Dave Weigel, are correct when they argue that this is just how Ryan and other conservatives "think about welfare's effects on social norms." If that's true, it's actually a bigger problem for the right. If Ryan was even a little bit aware of how people would interpret his remarks, or understood the reaction to them when it exploded online, we could just say that some conservatives want to play the Southern Strategy at least one more round, and leave it at that. Close the book on this controversy, without drawing any larger conclusions about the state of conservative self-deception.
But if Ryan genuinely stumbled heedless into a racial tinderbox then it suggests he, and most likely many other conservatives, has fully internalized a framing of social politics that was deliberately crafted to appeal to white racists without regressing to the uncouth language of explicit racism, and written its origins out of the history. If that's the case it augurs poorly for those in the movement who are trying to broaden the Republican Party's appeal, because it's easier to convince people to abandon a poor tactic than to unlearn rotten ideology.
In his 1984 book "The Two Party South," political scientist Alexander Lamis quoted a conservative operative later revealed to be Ronald Reagan confidant Lee Atwater, who traced the evolution.
''You start out in 1954 by saying, 'N----r, n----r, n----r,'" Atwater explained. "By 1968 you can't say 'n----r' -- that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me -- because obviously sitting around saying, 'We want to cut this,' is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than 'N----r, n----r.'''
Treating intergenerational laziness of inner-city men as established truth, and bemoaning the ways social spending programs supposedly nurture that "culture," blends seamlessly into Atwater's framework.
Weigel interprets the fact that Charles Murray has lately softened his claims as exculpation for Ryan and other conservatives who cite him. But Murray's just following a social Darwinist's rendition of the trajectory Atwater traced. I suspect both men are wiser to their intentions than their apologists give them credit for. There are ways to promote conservative social policies that aren't remotely racialized -- they just don't ignite the passions of resentful white people in a politically meaningful way. If I'm wrong, though, conservatives better hope the party doesn't nominate Ryan or any like-minded thinkers in 2016.
A quick point of trivia: I first learned about Atwater's comments years ago, in this New York Times column by Bob Herbert questioning why anybody was surprised to hear GOP education secretary-cum-talk radio host Bill Bennett say, "I do know that it's true that if you wanted to reduce crime, you could -- if that were your sole purpose -- you could abort every black baby in this country, and your crime rate would go down. That would be an impossible, ridiculous and morally reprehensible thing to do, but your crime rate would go down."
Guess whose program Ryan was a guest on when he stepped in it last week?