Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton

Trump's crashing and burning: FiveThirtyEight projects Clinton has 92.9% chance of winning

Trump has just a single-digit chance of winning the electoral and popular votes, says the latest projection


Brendan Gauthier
August 5, 2016 8:31PM (UTC)

Political statistician Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight released its 2016 presidential election forecast on Friday. In short, these next three months will be an uphill battle for GOP nominee Donald Trump.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to the forecast, has a 92.9% likelihood of winning the presidency, while Trump, has a 7.1% chance. Similarly, as of this writing, Clinton has a 95.1% chance to Trump's 4.9% of a winning the popular vote.

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Some good news for Libertarians: nominee Gary Johnson has a greater-than-zero (4.2%) chance of winning at least one electoral vote.

To determine these probabilities, FiveThirtyEight "simulates the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state." Those odds are subject to change "every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8."

Find the full report here.


Brendan Gauthier

Brendan Gauthier is a freelance writer.

MORE FROM Brendan GauthierFOLLOW @BuzzFeedBrandon

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Donald Trump Elections 2016 Fivethirtyeight Hillary Clinton Nate Silver




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