New poll spells doom for Democrats' dreams of a blue wave

Three Senate Democrats are running behind their Republican challengers — leaving Democrats worried about the fall

Published July 10, 2018 3:26PM (EDT)

 (Getty/Photo Montage by Salon)
(Getty/Photo Montage by Salon)

With the upcoming midterm elections inching closer, the Democrats' odds of flipping the Senate are looking weaker and weaker, thereby increasing the pressure to secure the House in order to act as any sort of legislative check on President Donald Trump.

A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll shows that the Democratic Party is poised to lose three seats to Republicans in the midterm elections: Republican Mike Braun has a 2-point lead on Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Rick Scott has a 3-point lead on Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida and Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer has a 5-point lead on Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.

Democrats, who have 49 Senate seats at the moment, look likely to win two GOP-held seats, with Arizona Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leading three Arizona Republican candidates and Nevada's Jacky Rosen leading GOP Sen. Dean Heller by 3 points. In addition, Democratic Senators Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana are now leading by double digits to GOP candidates.

Still, that won't be enough for Democrats to flip the chamber. To capture the Senate, Democrats would need to pick up 10 seats they're defending in states Trump won in 2016, plus secure an extra two. Republicans are likely to secure their seat in Tennessee, where Marsha Blackburn has a 14-point lead on Democrat Phil Bredesen.

"It's looking nearly impossible for Democrats to take back the Senate," Axios concluded.

The poll surveyed 12,677 total registered voters from June 11 and July 2. Read the state-by-state margins of error here.

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By Shira Tarlo

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2016 Presidential Campaign Elections Midterm Elections 2018 November 2018 Polls President Trump