President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally on March 2, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Trump was campaigning ahead of Super Tuesday. (Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

Female voters are fleeing Trump, hurting his re-election odds: polling analyst

Trump’s re-election odds tumble as number of female voters fleeing him takes a huge jump

Tom Boggioni
June 14, 2020 12:19AM (UTC)

This article originally appeared on Raw Story


According to polling analyst Harry Enten, Donald Trump's chances of being re-elected in November are growing worse every day as women increasingly say they won't vote for him.

Writing for CNN, Enten said the president is on the verge of losing the female vote by a "historic margin."


After reviewing polling over the last 70 years, the pollster wrote, "[Joe] Biden is leading among female registered voters by 59% to 35%, a 25-point margin when the numbers aren't rounded. That's a significant increase from his 19-point advantage earlier this year and the 14-point lead Hillary Clinton had in the final 2016 preelection polls of registered voters. Clinton had a 13-point edge with likely female voters."

Enten notes that — should those numbers hold up — Biden would beat the high watermark voting totals achieved by both former President Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon.

"The only year that comes close to what we see in the polls right now is 1964. That year, Democrat Lyndon Johnson won nationally by 23 points overall, and Gallup had him taking the women's vote by 24 points," he wrote. "Biden's doing a point better than Johnson did among female voters, even as he is doing 13 points worse overall. In no other year since 1952 did the Democratic nominee win among female voters by more than 15 points. (If we look at Republican nominees as well, Richard Nixon won the women's vote by 24 points in 1972 as he won nationally by 23 points.)"


What keeps Biden's numbers against Trump from being overwhelming is the fact that president still does better with men, with the pollster writing, "Perhaps what makes Biden more impressive with women is how weak he is with men. He's seen only a 2-point climb with them from earlier this year and is still losing them to Trump by 6 points. That's about how Clinton did with them in the final 2016 preelection polling. Clinton trailed by 5 and 7 points among registered voters and likely male voters, respectively."

As Enten notes, Biden's strength with women has an extra benefit o in that female turnout is traditionally larger on election day.

"Still, you'd rather have women on your side than men for the simple reason that they make up a slightly larger share of voters. Biden's overall advantage would be about a point less if women and men made up an equal share of the electorate. That doesn't matter at this moment, but it could if the polls tighten up," he wrote before concluding, "For now, all we can say is if this election were just left up to men, we'd be talking about a clear Trump lead instead of what it is in reality: a big Biden advantage."



Tom Boggioni

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