At least three generic congressional polls show that Democrats hold a significant lead over Republicans following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the watershed case that established America's constitutional right to abortion.
According to a Yahoo/News Gov poll released just this week, 45% of U.S. voters say they'd now vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, while roughly 38% meanwhile said they'd vote Republican – a 7% gap that has reportedly doubled since last week.
Those findings were affirmed in another poll, conducted this week by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, which similarly observed a 7% gap – 48% for Democrats and 41% for Republicans. That gap has reportedly widened by 2% since last week.
Morning Consult likewise found a 3% gap, with 45% of the electorate saying they'd vote for a Democrat and 42% for a Republican. Last week, support for the two parties was equal.
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All of these findings appear to validate concerns amongst some Republicans that the Supreme Court's ruling would activate Democratic voters in the coming midterms.
This week, over a dozen Republican strategists and party officials told Politico that the decision could spell electoral defeats for the party, when the GOP's platform has mostly involved critiquing the Biden agenda.
"This is not a conversation we want to have," John Thomas, a GOP House campaign strategist, told the outlet. "We want to have a conversation about the economy. We want to have a conversation about Joe Biden, about pretty much anything else besides Roe … This is a losing issue for Republicans."
While Donald Trump publicly took credit for the decision – three out of the court's nine justices are his own appointees – the former president is also reportedly not pleased with the timing of the ruling.
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"He keeps shitting all over his greatest accomplishment. When you speak to him, it's the response of someone fearing the backlash and fearing the politics of what happens when conservatives actually get what they want [on abortion]," one source told the outlet. "I do not think he's enjoying the moment as much as many of his supporters are, to be honest with you."
Although indicates that the ruling on Roe might spur greater Democratic turnout, Democrats have historically ranked abortion relatively low on their list of policy priorities, rendering the potential electoral impact of the ruling unclear.