A few years ago, as a single young professional in New York City, I went into a Costco store on East 117th Street and was quickly overwhelmed by the variety of products and the massive packaging… of everything.
“Never again,” I thought to myself as I left the Manhattan store.
Fast forward a few years later, and I'm based in Wisconsin with my family of two adults, three pets and a toddler who loves food and says “I hungry” from the moment he wakes up to pretty much the minute he goes to bed.
With the economy facing increasing inflationary pressures, the uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and the warning signs about food shortages, I decided to track back to Costco to give it another go.
Most analysts believe the impact of the 145% tax on Chinese imports might materialize soon in the form of “higher prices and fewer options,” as CNN reports. The CEOs of Walmart, Target and Home Depot warned Donald Trump in a private meeting that his tariff policy could “disrupt supply chains, raise prices and empty shelves,” Axios reported on April 23, citing sources familiar with the meeting. "Tariffs are highly likely to induce at least a temporary spike in inflation,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on April 16 at the Economic Club of Chicago, according to CNBC. “The inflationary impact may also prove more enduring.”
While I appreciate the hunt for the deal as much as anyone, my more recent Costco experience was still overwhelming and made me feel like an ant shopping at a warehouse. But stocking in bulk, if you can afford it and have space for the extra produce, is clearly going to save money in the long term.
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I’ve stocked up on seafood, coffee, fresh produce — products expected to see the biggest and most immediate price increases, although it’s hard to estimate exactly which aisles will be most impacted by Trump's erratic tariff policies.
“We have a highly globalized food supply chain — much of what we buy and eat at the grocery store is not grown or raised in the United States,” said Adam Hersh, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute. “The president's indiscriminate tariff policy is going to hit prices for imported foods as well as for foods produced domestically that compete with foreign foods. Shoppers should expect that some foods they are used to won't be available on the shelf at any price.”
It’s also hard to predict which states are likely to be most impacted, although states like Wisconsin and Michigan — which are tied to local farming and food production — tend to have lower grocery prices, with the average weekly household spend at $221.
As I loaded my purchases in the car, I felt that I was stocking up a small restaurant with the amount of fresh fish and meat that I was going to store now. I woke up the next morning, slightly panicked, cataloguing in my head how I would need to freeze and label the meat and seafood so it doesn’t go bad before we use it all.
It’s definitely a bit of a mind shift from running into Trader Joe’s a couple of times a week with the latest recipe inspirations from TikTok in my head, or venturing to a local farmer’s market on a Sunday. This type of shopping requires commitment: You’re either going to love eating something for weeks on end, or you should stay away from Costco.
This type of shopping requires commitment: You’re either going to love eating something for weeks on end, or you should stay away from Costco
Outside of shopping in bulk, I’m definitely thinking through and prepping more meals ahead of time, seeing where I can cut waste.
As a millennial who got a dog and spoiled her during the pandemic, of course I cook food for my German Shepherd Zoya. She loves cottage cheese, ground beef with turmeric and coconut oil, peas and carrots as well as salmon leftovers. The cats are less spoiled. While we’re switching up suppliers and exploring cheaper options, their diet is basically the same. For now.
Experts like Ted Rossman, a senior industry at Bankrate, see the tariffs' impact on grocery prices as a broader "rising expenses" issue, rather than COVID-era shortages.
"The USDA says only about 17% of the U.S. food supply is imported," Rossman noted. "Tariffs could definitely cause us to pay more for imported seafood, fruits, vegetables, etc., but we should still be able to get those items."
He also recommends signing up for store loyalty programs, using coupons or cashback platforms like Ibotta, and then of course writing a shopping list and budget ahead of time.
"Meal planning in advance can ensure you pick more cost-effective ingredients and that you eat what you buy," he said.
Other food experts recommend exploring local options.
"The truth is that American farmers can grow so much more nutritious fresh food — if only shoppers demanded it. Probably the simplest advice is to sign up now to receive fresh food boxes from nearby farms," Alan Lewis, vice president of advocacy at Natural Grocers, said. "The more subscribers they have in advance, the more crops farmers will plant and harvest for you this summer and fall."
That's the silver lining to the tariff uncertainty, if there is one.
"Consumers can react to tariffs in a way that makes the U.S. food system better for everyone," he said.
As someone who is used to grocery shopping a few times a week, I’m hoping this will become a more mindful way of shopping that will help us brace for the impact of tariffs, but also might be a good long-term practice to save more and be less wasteful.
Generations before us have survived wars and famines. Plus, we’ve already lived through a pandemic.
Economists warn, however, that this time the shortages are notably different from the COVID-19 era.
“The main difference is this situation is not an act of God, but was caused by the choice of just one man without much thought as to how and who it would impact,” Hersh said. “If he persists with this choice, it will mean a permanent change to the structure of global food production and trade that will raise prices and force families to change what and how they eat.”
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