Trump wants us to have more kids — but it's more expensive than ever

There are few policies that attract bipartisan support, and the child tax credit is one of them.

Since the late 1990s, both Democratic and Republican administrations saw the measure as a way to support middle-income and lower-income families. 

This year, the discussion is a little different.

Along with a potential increase of the credit, the Trump administration is considering a one-time, $5,000 baby bonus and other incentives, according to The New York Times. A “National Medal of Motherhood” medal would honor those with six kids or more, and quotas for married couples or applicants with children for programs like the Fulbright fellowship are being considered, according to The Times report last month.

The issue of boosting fertility rates, rather than just supporting American families, has entered the chat.

“The fact that the [Trump] administration jumped straight to motherhood medals and not something like paid leave or child care solutions shows just how out of touch they are with what parents in America are experiencing right now,” said Julie Kashen, a director for women’s economic justice at The Century Foundation.

After embarking on an ambitious tariff policy that faces economic headwinds, the Trump administration now will be tested on its commitment to American families. The administration will set the scope and size of the child tax credit, consider additional incentives and suggest how these are structured when it comes to defining the income of eligible families.

The administration will have to balance its embrace of pro-family values with widespread concerns about the economy and the growing deficit.

"The expectations of a recession have gone up, so I think it winds up being pretty important for the administration to deliver some tangible family policy wins,” said Leah Sargeant, author of a recent report published by Niskanen Center that highlights the potential benefits of a baby bonus. 

The Trump administration has issued no executive orders on a child tax credit, and Congress is still deliberating the future of the American Rescue Plan Act that includes the credit provision.

The child tax credit that temporarily increased benefits and broadened eligibility during the Biden administration expired in 2023.

The current credit provides $2,000 per child for eligible individuals making up to $200,000 and up to $400,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Without a congressional extension, the credit would revert to $1,000 per child in 2026 if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions expire at the end of this year.

Even though the child tax credit has been popular with both parties for decades, some experts suggest it excludes poor families because they don’t make enough money to qualify for it.

“It's for American families who are not among the poorest,” said Kathryn Edin, director of Bendheim-Thoman Center for Research on Child and Family Wellbeing at Princeton University. “In fact, 25% of American children are left out of any or part of the credit because the credit has been so skewed away from the poor — it's remarkable the degree to which it is ignored by the poor." 

Fertility focus

The baby bonus discussion has struck a different tone.

"It's a very different logic, this is really about boosting fertility — this is pronatalist,” Edin said. “It's not about helping families with kids, it's literally paying people to have kids."

Trump appears to be open to the pronatalist ideas. “We will support baby booms and we will support baby bonuses for a new baby boom,” he said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2023, as quoted by The New York Times.

Even supporters of the baby bonus say that it’s a temporary measure that could help, but will not automatically incentivize more Americans to have kids.

“A $2,000 baby bonus would cost a modest $5.3-$7.7 billion per year, depending on whether it was a universal program or phased in at a 20 percent rate to be fully claimable at $10,000 of earnings,” Niskanen Center’s Leah Sargeant argues in the report. 

"It's clear that families are struggling, that families can't and shouldn't be left out of this reconciliation package, and that there's a pretty broad menu of ways to help from catching up the child tax credit to inflation and instituting a baby bonus that'll work for a lot of American families," Sergeant said in an interview, noting there is an appetite for pro-family legislation. "And I also think just communicating that supporting families is a priority of this administration."

Even before the start of Trump’s second term, American families had been struggling. And it’s not clear his administration would be able to convince Americans to have more kids while the economy is headed for a recession.

The proposed baby bonus wouldn’t even cover the average cost of delivery for most parents. The average total cost for vaginal births is $14,768 and for cesarean sections is about $26,280, according to UW Health data.

An average middle-income family with two children spends about $310,605 to raise a child, according to recent data compiled by the Brookings Institution.

Child care costs have also risen. Daycare and preschool costs are up 22% between January 2020 and September 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the U.S., the burden of early childhood care falls on parents, which makes it an outlier compared to other developed economies. This takes a toll on parents’ ability to keep working as well as care for their children. 

“The labor force participation of parents with young children is weaker in the United States than in many of our peer nations, likely because of our lack of paid parental leave policies as well as the high cost of child care,” according to analysts at the Economic Policy Institute.

With the addition of tariffs, there are now early indications that it will become even costlier and more challenging to afford baby products and raise children.

While it’s still early to determine whether things will get a lot worse for parents, it’s clear that Trump will have to balance the shaky economy, fears about the deficit, tangible economic relief for families who are struggling and commitment to pronatalist beliefs. 

"A lot of American data have indicated that one of the reasons they don't want to grow their family is because they are not sure that economically they will be able to in the coming years,” said Courtney Joslin, who leads R Street’s project for women and families. “When you start from there, that's a different policy conversation than if you're starting with, ‘Well, if we give an increased child tax credit, a baby bonus, that will suddenly boost Americans' willingness to have more children.’ ”

Joslin is doubtful these policies will dramatically boost the fertility rate. None of the broader issues are currently addressed in a systemic way by the Trump administration, according to experts. Ultimately, no amount of incentives will convince people to have kids if they feel financially insecure.

“It’s time to move away from the DIY system we have — where it’s every family for themselves,” said Julie Kashen. “Instead, we need robust investments in child care, paid leave, maternal and reproductive care, sick leave and health care for all to strengthen the financial health and well-being of parents in America and make it easier for women to have families on their own terms.”