In the wake of state representative Zohran Mamdani’s historic defeat of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s Democratic primary, Donald Trump knew immediately who he feared most: Not Mamdani, who he doesn’t seem to know much about, as evidenced by a preposterous attack on Mamdani’s good looks. Certainly not Cuomo, who is a weak imitation of Trump in the “sexually predatory jerk” department. No, his eyes went straight to his real nemesis: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of Queens. Trump’s biggest dig against Mamdani was “AOC+3” on Truth Social, citing the congresswoman’s nickname.
It’s no surprise that Trump so swiftly reverted to his AOC obsession. While multiple Democrats have called out the president for his illegal bombing of Iran and the apparent lies he’s told in exaggerating its effectiveness, it’s Ocasio-Cortez who got under his skin. He unleashed a Truth Social post that was unhinged even by his standards, screeching that she’s “NOT qualified for office,” that she’s “stupid” and the “dumbest,” while defending his own intelligence by noting he “ACED” a cognitive test doctors use to determine if an elderly person’s dementia has gotten so bad they need to be put in full-time care. Trump’s fear that people will notice he’s stupid is never far from the surface, but his narcissistic anxiety is clearly aggravated by fears that Ocasio-Cortez is a formidable political opponent.
Trump should be worried. Ocasio-Cortez has not hinted at any presidential run in 2028. But if she were the Democratic nominee, she would be extremely hard for Trump to beat. (Yes, yes, I know the Constitution forbids him from running again. It also guarantees birthright citizenship, but the Supreme Court found a backdoor way to pause that on Friday. They’d make up some B.S. to justify letting him run a third time, if he’s physically capable of doing so.) Ocasio-Cortez isn’t just the opposite of Trump, brimming with the youth and intelligence he lacks. She also offers a sharp contrast to the rest of the Democratic Party, which voters see, for good reason, as feckless, weak and corrupted by corporate interests.
Democratic leadership has bet that hiding and making noises about “bipartisanship” will save them as Trump implodes, but it’s just led to their voters deciding they are too lame to be bothered with — a miscalculation that could very well drive down turnout of Democratic voters in the midterms.
Trump’s approval ratings are low, but they are still better than those of the Democrats. A mid-June Quinnipiac poll shows 38 percent of voters approve of Trump, but only 21 percent say the same about congressional Democrats. Democrats in Congress have a shocking 70 percent disapproval rating, driven up by the fact that 53 percent of Democratic voters are mad at them. Democratic leadership has bet that hiding and making noises about “bipartisanship” will save them as Trump implodes, but it’s just led to their voters deciding they are too lame to be bothered with — a miscalculation that could very well drive down turnout of Democratic voters in the midterms.
While it’s unwise to draw too many national lessons from Mamdani’s win in deep-blue New York City, one aspect of his resounding victory matters quite a bit for Democrats who want to turn the ship around: People actually like the guy. Centrist efforts to paint him as a communist, criminal-loving terrorist threat didn’t resonate with most voters, because Mamdani ran a positive campaign with bold ideas that excited voters, especially younger ones. As former Barack Obama staffer Dan Pfeiffer said on “Pod Save America” Thursday, “The hope he’s given people is something every Democrat should be learning from.” Mamdani, Pfeiffer said, spoke to people’s desire for a candidate ready to take on the “broken political system.”
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Trump won in 2024 in large part because young voters are breaking with the Democratic Party, which they see as hidebound and corrupt. (Yes, Trump is worse, but turns out “not the worst” is hardly a great sales pitch for Democrats.) As Philip Bump wrote in the Washington Post last week, younger voters see “triangulating middle-ground positions” as a “betrayal.” They believe Democrats are ignoring their desires “for affordable housing and support for schools and child care.” Mamdani spoke directly to those concerns, and with strategies that actually reach younger voters, such as focusing on social media and word-of-mouth driven by in-person contact, rather than TV ads. He also seems like a genuine person, happy to speak in plain English, instead of parroting focus group-shaped talking points that often make Democrats seem inauthentic, reinforcing fears that they’re out of touch.
The numbers bear this out. As the New York Times reported Sunday, Mamdani turned out younger voters at eye-popping levels. Democratic primaries tend to lean older, with the largest turnout coming from people aged 55-75. In this primary, however, by far the largest group of voters was between 18-30 years-old. Young voters typically vote in primaries in vanishingly small numbers, comparable only to the size of the post-80 crowd, whose statistics are decimated by invalidity and death. These are the voters Democrats need to excite, and Mamdani showed the party how to do it.
He is a talented candidate, but Mamdani’s campaign strategy owed a great deal to Ocasio-Cortez, who used the same methods to oust longtime incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley in the 2018 Democratic primary. Since then, she’s become one of the most famous Democrats in Congress, a distinction largely due to her social media savvy and her no-nonsense way of speaking to voters.
Even centrists must concede that Ocasio-Cortez is more popular than the mealy-mouthed Democrats who otherwise dominate the landscape. In a March CNN poll where Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents were asked to name one politician who best represents their values, AOC led the pack, beating out even former Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama. In a Data for Progress poll from April, Ocasio-Cortez led Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical primary for New York’s Democratic Senate nomination by a whopping 19 points.
The knock on her from centrists is that because AOC is a progressive, she’ll scare off potential swing voters in a presidential race. It’s possible, of course. She is demonized by Fox News on the regular, after all. But there’s not much data to suggest that swing voters, who tend to be lower-information voters than most other demographics, care that much about policy, much less are “moderate” in their policy views. On the contrary, as journalist Jill Filipovic wrote in her newsletter, voters want someone “who promises to shake things up.” Someone who has charisma and promises real change. Someone who seems “real” and not a robot built by political consultants who are afraid to take chances.
Frankly, that’s why Trump won in 2024, despite having more baggage than a 747. His rejection of the basic rules and norms of politics made him read as “authentic,” especially to low-information voters, despite his relentless lying. His emotional incontinence was sold as evidence he’s a “fighter.” And there’s no doubt that he and his campaign are savvy about social media, which is a far better way to turn out voters, especially low-propensity voters, than traditional media.
The only Democrat who offers that on anything close to scale, at least until Mamdani’s win, is AOC. (And unlike Mamdani, who was born in Uganda, she’s eligible to run.) She has charisma, as evidenced by her widely-known nickname. The fact that she scares Republicans can work in her favor, because it reinforces her image as a fighter. And she will be able to defang Trump easily. Just look at how she dismissed him swiftly when he called her names last week, cheerfully posting, “Mr. President, don’t take your anger out on me – I’m just a silly girl.” She’s nimble because she thinks for herself, and her self-confidence draws other people towards her, making them trust her.
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On Greg Sargent’s podcast last week, I argued that Ocasio-Cortez is the answer to the question of where to find the “liberal Joe Rogan” — which is to say, the appeal of podcasters like Rogan, Theo Von and other “comedians” who helped Trump win in 2024 is not their backward views. It’s that listeners, especially young men, feel they’re hearing honesty from them. They aren’t — Rogan is especially guilty of platforming misinformation — but the “politically incorrect” framework makes them feel they’re hearing people’s real opinions, which is so different from the weak, triangulated rhetoric they get from most Democratic politicians.
But not, crucially, from AOC. Agree or disagree with her, but when she speaks, you believe she means what she says. And that likely matters more to voters than the specific content of any one comment. Right now, trust in institutions and leaders is low. The public believes no one will speak truthfully to them. The only way to rebut that is to put up candidates who voters believe speak from the heart. The Democrats are low on trust and it’s no wonder, when so many of them refuse to talk like normal people. Plus, unlike Trump, Ocasio-Cortez is young, beautiful and well-spoken. Next to her, he’ll look as old and out-of-touch as he actually is.
