Nearly two weeks later, headlines about Donald Trump’s violent threats against a group of Democratic lawmakers — and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly in particular — aren’t fading away. New plot lines keep emerging that are ensuring the focus remains on the Arizona senator, which carries a potential risk for Republicans in 2028.
The inciting incident came on Nov. 18 with the release of a video message featuring Kelly and five other Democrats — Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Reps. Jason Crow of Colorado, Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania, Maggie Goodlander of New Hampshire and Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania — aimed at members of the military and intelligence community.
“This administration is pitting our uniformed military and intelligence community professionals against American citizens,” the group said. “The threats to our Constitution aren’t just coming from abroad, but from right here right at home. Our laws are clear. You can refuse illegal orders. No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution.”
The language used by the Democrats, all of whom are veterans or former intelligence personnel, was intentional, mirroring what can be found in the Uniform Code of Military Justice. That didn’t matter to Donald Trump. Two days later, he erupted on social media. The Democrats were “traitors” who should face prison — and the death penalty. “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!” read one of the president’s posts. (He later denied he had made any threats.)
Trump’s threats triggered a statement of solidarity from the lawmakers reiterating their message. But the story kept evolving. On Nov. 24, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that the Pentagon was investigating whether Kelly, a retired Navy captain and combat pilot, had violated military law with the video. According to the statement, the senator could be recalled to active duty to face “court-martial proceedings or administrative measures.” The following day it was revealed that the FBI was opening a probe into the lawmakers’ conduct and would be attempting to schedule interviews with each of the six lawmakers.
[Trump’s] actions have had unintended consequences: He has elevated Kelly as a potential 2028 rival, if not for himself then for his MAGA successor.
By virtue of the Pentagon investigation, as well as rumors of his presidential ambitions, Kelly has received the lion’s share of attention. That’s bad news for Republicans and constitutes a major error on the part of Trump, whose actions have had unintended consequences: He has elevated Kelly as a potential 2028 rival, if not for himself then for his MAGA successor, whether that ends up being Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr. — who’s in second place behind Vance according to a recent poll — or even Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who recently announced her retirement from Congress.
Like any politician worth their salt, Kelly is taking advantage of the increased attention from Trump’s attacks. Over the past 10 days, the senator has been on a media blitz. With the notable exception of Fox News, he has chalked up appearances on every major network and cable news channel. There was his Nov. 23 interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” followed by multiple appearances on MSNOW, including “Morning Joe” on Nov. 21 and “The Rachel Maddow Show” on Nov. 25. ABC was next; Kelly appeared on “Jimmy Kimmel Live” on Nov. 26. He pulled double duty over the holiday weekend, sitting down with Kristen Welker on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
In interview after interview, Kelly denounced Trump’s comments and underscored his reason for making the video. “We’re concerned because of this president, with this secretary of defense, that we could have a significant problem,” he told Welker. “I’m not gonna be intimidated. I’m not gonna be bullied. Especially by people like Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth.”
For many potential voters, this will be their first substantial introduction to Kelly, who initially achieved national recognition as the supportive husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz., who was severely wounded in a 2011 shooting, and for winding down his career as a NASA astronaut to support her recovery. In 2020, he won a special Senate election to fill the remainder of the late GOP Sen. John McCain’s term, and two years later he was elected to a full term. After Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race in 2024, Kelly found himself a contender to serve as then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate.
While the senator has used his recent media appearances to defend his statement to members of the military and to push back against Trump and Hegseth’s threats, he has also seized the opportunity to go on the offense and talk about other issues.
On “State of the Union,” Kelly all but called Hegseth a war criminal in response to a recent report that the defense secretary issued a verbal kill-them-all order when Joint Special Operations were preparing a Sept. 2 strike on a Venezuelan boat in the Caribbean that the administration alleged was carrying drugs bound for the U.S. The senator also minced no words in attacking Trump over his mass deportations. “When he says things like ‘third-world countries,’ what is he really saying?” Kelly asked. “I think what he’s saying is he doesn’t want brown people in our country. And that is disturbing, and it’s un-American.”
Such comments are doubtless heartfelt. But they are also likely intended to quell concerns among progressives who might look askance at one factor in Kelly’s Senate record. On Capitol Hill, he’s known for his efforts to reach across the aisle, scoring in the top 25% of bipartisan senators according to the most recent Bipartisan Index released by The Lugar Center and Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.
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For all his achievements, Kelly is not a natural showman. A sober presence in interviews and on the stump, he has tended to fade into the background in the Senate. But Kelly also has an unquantifiable quality that more voters, at least over the past couple of decades, have associated with Republican politicians: BDE. This understated confidence is something that Trump, with his hurricane of narcissism and swagger, has never possessed. It’s a trait that has been on full display in every interview Kelly has given since he became the target of the administration’s ire.
It’s unclear how much thought, if any, the mercurial Trump gave to attacking Kelly. In the past, going after a combat veteran — and a war hero, in the case of McCain, a Vietnam POW — has not mattered to Trump’s MAGA base, or to independent voters who broke for him over Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.
Recent weeks have shown that the Donald Trump of 2025 is not the Donald Trump of nine years ago. Simply put, whether due to misjudging the country’s mood or the increasingly obvious effects of poor health and aging, the president has been off his game. His poll numbers are in sharp decline. After GOP candidates were roundly drubbed in November’s off-year elections, Trump was faced by a wave of bad press questioning his abilities and casting him, less than a year into his term, as a veritable lame duck.
In acts that would have been unheard of as recently as the summer, congressional Republicans are beginning to publicly defy him. After GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Nancy Mace of South Carolina — as well as Trump’s perennial thorn in the flesh, Thomas Massie of Kentucky — refused to withdraw their support for releasing the Justice Department’s files on the deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein under immense pressure from the White House, the president was forced to change his position and support a bill mandating their disclosure. According to a POLITICO report that was disputed by the White House, Trump was poised to unveil a health care initiative that would have included continued subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. But it reportedly never saw the light of day because Republicans on Capitol Hill balked.
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Now, a Nov. 25 YouGov America poll has found that a majority of Americans have effectively sided with Kelly over Trump, with 50% of U.S. adults approving of lawmakers reminding active-duty service members of their legal duty to refuse to carry out illegal orders. (Of those, 35% strongly approved.) Thirty-two percent disapproved, while 18% were unsure. Among self-described independents, 50% approved, 26% disapproved and 23% were not sure.
Kelly has also taken to fundraising off Trump and Hegseth’s attacks, sending out two rounds of emails with subject lines that read “President Trump is calling for me to be hanged” and “The Department of War is coming after me.” Tellingly, the proceeds will not solely benefit Kelly. So far, the multiple emails in each of the two rounds were also sent on behalf of New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who is up for reelection in 2026, California Sen. Adam Schiff, Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and the Nevada Democratic Party.
Although Kelly’s media appearances have been well received, it’s unclear how his subdued manner and record of bipartisanship will play among an angry Democratic base that wants to see their leaders fight. But the senator, with a remarkable assist from Trump, is making it clear that he plans to give it a shot.
