Special elections pattern suggests GOP could face rout in midterms

After a historic blowout in the 2024 elections, Democrats appeared to be down for the count. Voter confidence in the party cratered as the Trump administration swept into Washington, D.C., wielding both the Legislative and Executive branches, with frequent support from the Supreme Court, pushing the Democrats aside.

Inheriting a strong economy and with control of the House, Senate and White House, the momentum was on President Donald Trump’s side. Just over a year later, however, the feeling has changed. Trump’s job approval ratings are low due to his handling of the economy, immigration and the massive political fallout stemming from the Epstein files. This change of affairs has high-profile Republicans getting worried about the looming November midterms. Some are even outright panicking, with Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, saying it will be a “bloodbath.”

Though the Democrats’ national ratings are still down, the party has achieved some notable victories, which have largely come in recent state-level races and special elections. Relatively small, these have been important wins for the party, since many were contentious fights or were blind-siding upsets.

Iowa

Last year, Democrat Mike Zimmer flipped a state Senate seat in January held by Republican Katie Whittington. Zimmer won by a margin of 52% to Whittington’s 48%, in a district that picked Trump over Kamala Harris by 21 points in 2024.

In April, Democrat Angelina Ramirez won her race for Iowa state representative with nearly 80% of the vote, while first-time Democratic candidate Catelyn Drey‘s state senate win in August ended the Republican supermajority in the Iowa senate. Her win flipped a longtime Republican seat in a district that Trump won by 10 points. Drey told Salon in September that Democrats should be “capitalizing on the frustration” of voters.

“The takeaway is just speaking to voters as if they are human beings. They’re not dumb. We have to remember that voters are not stupid and reach them with a message that resonates about their everyday life,” Drey said.

A few months later, Renee Hardman became the first Black woman in the Iowa Senate. The Democrat beat her opponent by a margin of 40 points, preventing Iowa Republicans from securing a supermajority in the state House. Hardman secured 71.4% of the vote, a full 27 points higher than Harris got in 2024.

Georgia

Two Democrats won positions on the Republican-dominated Georgia Public Service Commission in November. The elections of Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johnson to the five-person board of utility regulators ended a twenty-year Republican winning streak in winning statewide elections for state-level offices.

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“Affordability is front and center in voters’ minds, and today they overwhelmingly said they’re tired of subsidizing corporate interests at the expense of their families,” Hubbard said at the time.

Mississippi

In Mississippi, Black Democrats won two key state Senate races in November. As in Iowa, the wins in the normally red districts broke the Republicans’ supermajority and will give conservative leadership an uphill battle.

“Mississippi voters reminded us that change is possible when we show up together,” Mississippi Democratic Party Vice Chair Jodie Brown wrote in a statement. “Breaking the supermajority means restoring checks and balances — and ensuring that every Mississippian’s voice counts in their state government.”

Texas

This winter has been hot for Texas Democrats. Taylor Rehmet won a state Senate seat in a conservative Dallas-area county by 14 points in early February, despite Trump urging voters to back his opponent, Leigh Wambsganss. Rehmet’s win broke Republican control in Tarrant County for the first time in more than forty years.

A week prior, Rep. Christian Menefee, D-Texas, won a runoff election for a spot in the US House. His win narrows the Republican majority in the House to just one vote.

The wins certainly give the Democrats a feeling of momentum going into November. They stand poised to take back the House, as well as gain some seats in the Senate. However, the wins may not be true bellwethers.

“They’re a good sign, but not a sure sign,” Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Salon.

Burden said that Democrats are “overperforming” in the small-scale elections, but noted that the party of a sitting president usually suffers in midterms. This year is no different, but voter grievances are more acute.

“His approval ratings are sitting around 40%,” Burden said of Trump. “He has party control in Congress. A lot of the discontent Americans are feeling can be put at the feet of Trump,” noting a rapidly growing discontent among independent voters and a desire for “accountability against the administration.”

Burden pointed to the numerous first-year failures for Trump. Despite inheriting a strong economy, Trump failed to lower prices for many Americans, dropping the ball on the affordability crisis, which he called a “hoax.”

Additionally, Burden said Trump’s handling of immigration by way of turning Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers loose in cities has proven “unacceptable” to the public.

“The public mostly sees him as having done neither of those very big tasks,” Burden said. “Trump promised to do things about them on day one, and that hasn’t happened.”

Stephen Voss, an associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, said the combination of “highly mobilized” college-educated Democratic voters joining forces with independents who feel “alienated by the GOP” has helped Democrats win early elections.

“Usually, the mobilization of partisan and swing voters persists longer in a midterm election,” Voss told Salon. A specialist in elections and voting behavior, he noted an “enthusiasm gap,” in which voters of the party in power grow complacent, has been playing into Democrats’ hands.

“We see an enthusiasm gap coming into midterm elections, where voters for the party out of power feel motivated because they are reacting negatively to the present administration,” Voss said. “So far, we’ve seen a much more powerful enthusiasm gap.”

Still, Voss said the nationwide political situation is “highly volatile,” and while Democrats appear to have the momentum, he gave them some advice: just win.

“The bigger concern is the Democrats playing their hand: nominating candidates who are a bitter pill to swallow for swing voters,” Voss said. “A party out of power usually looks for electable candidates because they don’t want to stay in the wasteland.”

“If Democrats feel that this election is their destiny and start nominating more extreme candidates, they may lose elections that they would otherwise win.”

Burden said Democrats should run on affordability and daily economics. “History shows it’s bread and butter issues that typically work best,” he said. However, Burden noted that a “remote possibility” of a Republican midterm miracle still exists.

“Trump needs to admit that affordability is an issue,” Burden said.

Massive tax refunds would have to show up, along with tariff dividends, some timely tax cuts, and truly stellar jobs reports, according to Burden. “It might be just enough to mitigate the serious losses that could happen. It’s at least possible.”

Voss said it would be “really hard” for Trump to win back his swing and Independent voters, barring an “extreme” event, like a catastrophic natural disaster, an economic miracle, or even “another 9/11.”

“Democrats should feel very upbeat but not arrogant,” Voss said.

“The general consensus is that Democrats are advantaged. If one party were to romp, it would be them,” Burden agreed.