SALON

Thursday, Mar 14, 2013 11:45 AM UTC

CPAC: 3 things to watch for

The event, which starts today, has never seemed like more of a caricature of itself. But we can still learn from it

By

Topics: Opening Shot, Rand Paul, CPAC, Ron Paul, Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, Rush Limbaugh, Immigration,

CPAC: 3 things to watch forSens. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul (Credit: AP/Haraz N. Ghanbari/Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)

Take a look at the speakers roster for the Conservative Political Action Conference, which kicks off in Washington today, and it’s easy to conclude that the annual gathering of conservative activists has devolved into a circus show. Not only are Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, two of the most popular Republican governors in the country, not invited, but Donald Trump and Sarah Palin are being given two of the longest blocs of time at the podium. It’s almost enough to make it feel like CPAC ’13 was planned by some mischievous Democrat.

The event, as it always does, will attract thousands of conservative activists, opinion-shapers and politicians and will receive substantial media coverage. It’s hard to say exactly how well the conference, which serves as an umbrella for a funky area of right-leaning groups and causes, reflects the conservative movement, but the events of the next few days could provide some useful clues about where conservatism is heading in Barack Obama’s second term and the role that some prominent and ambitious Republicans will play in it.

To that end, here are three things to be watching for at CPAC:

1. The mainstreaming of Rand Paul: The Paul name has been a divisive one at Obama-era CPAC gatherings, with rabid supporters of Ron Paul invading the hall to cheer on their man, jeer his Republican enemies, and in 2010 and 2011 delivering straw poll victories to him. When those straw poll wins were announced, the boos from the rest of the attendees were loud and lusty. Ron Paul’s CPAC appearances perfectly captured the nature and limits of his political appeal. His libertarian message, non-interventionist views and devotion to the gold standard attracted a sizable, committed following, but many of the true-believers weren’t actually part of the Republican Party. Meanwhile, that same message – and the missionary zeal of Paul’s backers – alienated the rest of the party, guaranteeing that he’d always be a lightning rod in the party and placing a permanent ceiling on his growth.

It’s a different story for Rand Paul, though, who inherited the family’s political operation when his father retired from the House after last year’s election. He has ambitions not just to run for president but to seriously compete for the Republican nomination, in a way his father never did. And as he showed with his filibuster last week, he has a knack for drawing attention to himself in a way that upholds his basic libertarian worldview without alienating wide swaths of the Republican Party. As I wrote at the time, the most notable aspect of Rand’s filibuster was how many mainstream Republicans ended up joining him on the floor – a show of support his father never dreamed of.

CPAC could provide further evidence that Rand Paul is making inroads into the conservative mainstream (and that the conservative mainstream is simultaneously moving toward Paul-ism). His will be one of the most closely watched speeches, and if it ends with the Paul-ites united with rank-and-file conservatives in raucous cheers, it will be further proof that the younger Paul is a far more serious force within the GOP than his father ever was – and that his national prospects are real.

2. The immigration question: If there’s one issue where there’s been real movement on the right since the election, it’s immigration. And the point-man has been Marco Rubio, the Florida senator and potential 2016 White House candidates. Rubio is at work on legislation that would create some sort of path to citizenship for the undocumented, and has been making the rounds selling the idea to previously hostile leaders on the right. He’s had some success so far, winning praise from Rush Limbaugh and even forcing Jeb Bush to abandon his watered-down plan for a path to legal status and to reembrace the citizenship concept. Still, immigration remains a highly sensitive issue on the right, where strong nativist sentiments are still prevalent. Rubio will be speaking at CPAC, and it will be interesting to see whether he includes his immigration reform ideas in his message – and, if he does, how the crowd reacts. And if he doesn’t mention immigration and instead sticks with the standard right-wing red meat, that will also be telling, suggesting that Rubio has concluded he has a lot more work to do behind the scenes before it’s safe to play up a path to citizenship plan in front of a conservative audience.

3. The uninviteds: The snubs of Christie and McDonnell have attracted considerable attention. The New Jersey governor is supposedly unwanted by organizers because of his vocal praise for President Obama at the height of Sandy last fall – which came just days before the election. McDonnell apparently wasn’t included because of the transportation bill he recently signed, which includes some tax increases. Some have interpreted these snubs as evidence that both men have fallen from favor with conservative leaders and are slipping behind in the all-important pre-2016 “invisible primary.” But there’s reason to believe that it wasn’t a groundswell of opposition that accounted for each man’s non-invite, but rather a decision from a relatively small group of conference organizers. I’ve suggested that Christie (and probably McDonnell too) is still in very good standing with the right and would receive a warm welcome from the crowd if he showed up at CPAC.

Let’s see if any prominent speakers decide to mention the two snubbed governors – and let’s see how the crowd reacts if they do.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.

You Might Also Like

More Related Stories

Featured Slide Shows

7 motorist-friendly camping sites

close X
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 9

Sponsored Post

  • White River National Forest via Lower Crystal Lake, Colorado
    For those OK with the mainstream, White River Forest welcomes more than 10 million visitors a year, making it the most-visited recreation forest in the nation. But don’t hate it for being beautiful; it’s got substance, too. The forest boasts 8 wilderness areas, 2,500 miles of trail, 1,900 miles of winding service system roads, and 12 ski resorts (should your snow shredders fit the trunk space). If ice isn’t your thing: take the tire-friendly Flat Tops Trail Scenic Byway — 82 miles connecting the towns of Meeker and Yampa, half of which is unpaved for you road rebels.
    fs.usda.gov/whiteriveryou


    Image credit: Getty

  • Chattahoochee-Oconee National Forest via Noontootla Creek, Georgia
    Boasting 10 wildernesses, 430 miles of trail and 1,367 miles of trout-filled stream, this Georgia forest is hailed as a camper’s paradise. Try driving the Ridge and Valley Scenic Byway, which saw Civil War battles fought. If the tall peaks make your engine tremble, opt for the relatively flat Oconee National Forest, which offers smaller hills and an easy trail to the ghost town of Scull Shoals. Scaredy-cats can opt for John’s Mountain Overlook, which leads to twin waterfalls for the sensitive sightseer in you.
    fs.usda.gov/conf


    Image credit: flickr/chattoconeenf

  • Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area via Green Road, Michigan
    The only national forest in Lower Michigan, the Huron-Mainstee spans nearly 1 million acres of public land. Outside the requisite lush habitat for fish and wildlife on display, the Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area is among the biggest hooks for visitors: offering beach camping with shores pounded by big, cerulean surf. Splash in some rum and you just might think you were in the Caribbean.
    fs.usda.gov/hmnf


    Image credit: umich.edu

  • Canaan Mountain via Backcountry Canaan Loop Road, West Virginia
    A favorite hailed by outdoorsman and author Johnny Molloy as some of the best high-country car camping sites anywhere in the country, you don’t have to go far to get away. Travel 20 miles west of Dolly Sods (among the busiest in the East) to find the Canaan Backcountry (for more quiet and peace). Those willing to leave the car for a bit and foot it would be remiss to neglect day-hiking the White Rim Rocks, Table Rock Overlook, or the rim at Blackwater River Gorge.
    fs.usda.gov/mnf


    Image credit: Getty

  • Mt. Rogers NRA via Hurricane Creek Road, North Carolina
    Most know it as the highest country they’ll see from North Carolina to New Hampshire. What they may not know? Car campers can get the same grand experience for less hassle. Drop the 50-pound backpacks and take the highway to the high country by stopping anywhere on the twisting (hence the name) Hurricane Road for access to a 15-mile loop that boasts the best of the grassy balds. It’s the road less travelled, and the high one, at that.
    fs.usda.gov/gwj


    Image credit: wikipedia.org

  • Long Key State Park via the Overseas Highway, Florida
    Hiking can get old; sometimes you’d rather paddle. For a weekend getaway of the coastal variety and quieter version of the Florida Keys that’s no less luxe, stick your head in the sand (and ocean, if snorkeling’s your thing) at any of Long Key’s 60 sites. Canoes and kayaks are aplenty, as are the hot showers and electric power source amenities. Think of it as the getaway from the typical getaway.
    floridastateparks.org/longkey/default.cfm


    Image credit: floridastateparks.org

  • Grand Canyon National Park via Crazy Jug Point, Arizona
    You didn’t think we’d neglect one of the world’s most famous national parks, did you? Nor would we dare lead you astray with one of the busiest parts of the park. With the Colorado River still within view of this cliff-edge site, Crazy Jug is a carside camper’s refuge from the troops of tourists. Find easy access to the Bill Hall Trail less than a mile from camp, and descend to get a peek at the volcanic Mt. Trumbull. (Fear not: It’s about as active as your typical lazy Sunday in front of the tube, if not more peaceful.)
    fs.usda.gov/kaibab


    Image credit: flickr/Irish Typepad

  • As the go-to (weekend) getaway car for fiscally conscious field trips with friends, the 2013 MINI Convertible is your campground racer of choice, allowing you and up to three of your co-pilots to take in all the beauty of nature high and low. And with a fuel efficiency that won’t leave you in the latter, you won’t have to worry about being left stranded (or awkwardly asking to go halfsies on gas expenses).


    Image credit: miniusa.com

  • Recent Slide Shows

  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on Facebook
  • Thumbnails
  • Fullscreen
  • 1 of 9

Related Videos

Comments

 6 Comments

Comment Preview

Your name will appear as username ( settings | log out )

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href=""> <b> <em> <strong> <i> <blockquote>

Alex Pareene surveys the burgeoning and bloated world of political news and opinion and explains the day's most essential story in Opening Shot, posted by 8:30 a.m. each weekday. Bookmark this page; follow @pareene on Twitter.

follow salon

Most Read

Popular on Reddit

links from salon.com

From Around the Web

Presented by Scribol
listener_new_rect The Listener: "The Joker": Laughing at life's deepest sorrows