It's been an odd day for political videos, and on both sides of divide, no less.
On the right, there's a preview for a movie about the Tea Parties floating around. And yes, it's just as corny, melodromatic and self-important as you'd think.
Then there's a public service announcement, scheduled to air over Thanksgiving, that features NFL players tossing a football around with kids and, um, President Obama. That one, too, is just plain weird -- you don't often expect to see New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees on the White House lawn. Plus, the shot in that commercial that involves Obama slowly appearing on screen in order to catch Brees' pass is so forced that it just looks like unintentional self-parody. (Also, Obama, who's almost 50 years old, can apparently burn an All-Pro safety. Who knew?)
Both videos are below.
For the second time this week, a reliable pollster shows President Obama's approval rating falling below 50 percent. On Wednesday, it was Quinnipiac; now, it's Gallup. This new survey will likely prove the more symbolically important of the two, due to Gallup's long history and the weight it's given.
49 percent of respondents in Gallup's poll said they approve of the job Obama's doing, compared to 44 percent who disapprove. According to the pollster, Obama's fall below the 50 percent threshold is the fourth fastest of all the presidents in the post-World War II era. Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton beat him to the mark.
That said, the value of these numbers is mostly symbolic, and if history's any guide, it's likely that he'll be back up over 50 percent soon. But this kind of data has a way of scaring members of Congress who are unsure about whether or not to back the president.
What I said in my last post, about Doug Hoffman representing the conservative id, especially now, when he makes completely nonsensical claims about ACORN stealing an upstate New York Congressional election from him? I'll admit it: I had no idea how right I was.
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, got lucky with the timing of its latest survey. That's because PPP asked respondents, "Do you think that Barack Obama legitimately won the Presidential election last year, or do you think that ACORN stole it for him?"
Fully 26 percent of respondents said they believe ACORN stole the election for Obama, compared to 62 percent who said they think he won it fair and square. 12 percent weren't sure.
The numbers were even more revealing when broken down along partisan lines. A majority of Republicans -- 52 percent -- think ACORN stole the presidency, while just 27 percent said they believe Obama's office is legitimately his.
President Obama's approval rating has been dropping for some time now. For the most part, that's something that can get written off -- every president sees his numbers fall once he's in office for a little while, and in this case, the fall could largely be explained by the boost Obama got after being elected; his ratings were just returning to something like what they were last November. Plus, he was above 50 percent approval in just about every poll, with a few exceptions that could easily be explained away.
But now one reliable pollster, Quinnipiac, is out with a new survey that shows Obama's approval having fallen below that magic 50 percent number, to 48 percent. Meanwhile, in the same poll, 42 percent of respondents said they they disapprove of the job he's doing.
There is an important caveat to make here, though, one Quinnipiac itself made in its press release announcing the poll: Statistically speaking, the president's 48 percent approval rating is no different from the 50 percent rating he got when Quinnipiac last checked, back in October.
But as Peter Brown, Quinnipiac's assistant director, said in that release, "[I]n politics symbols matter, and this is not a good symbol for the White House." The poll's margin of error means the president's approval rating could be as high as 50 percent or as low as 46 percent. That won't matter as much as the one number, though, especially not when Obama's fellow Democrats see it and start worrying about how much political help he's really giving them.
This isn't the first poll to find Obama's approval below 50 percent, but the pollster who'd most notably gotten that result was Rasmussen, which has had numbers that tend to skew Republicans because of its choice to poll "likely" voters rather than all voters. Other recent surveys have had Obama at 56, 55 and 53 percent approval.
The deadline that President Obama set for closing the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay always seemed ambitious. The haphazard way his administration has gone about it made the task even more difficult, and now Obama himself has acknowledged the inevitable: The prison will not close by January, as he'd wanted it to.
Obama made the admission during an interview with Fox News' Major Garrett on Wednesday. He said he still wants the facility closed sometime next year, and that he's "not disappointed" with the blown deadline, because he "knew this was going to be hard."
"I'm not going to set an exact date because a lot of this is also going to depend on cooperation from Congress," Obama said.
Stretching this out into the middle or end of next year would likely mean another missed deadline -- it's going to be politically difficult to finish the closure when vulnerable Democrats are worrying about the midterm elections, and when they are also talking about al-Qaida suspects like Khalid Sheikh Mohammed being brought to the U.S. for trial.
On Tuesday, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said that deficit reduction was "foremost" on the minds of the president and his economic team. On Wednesday, Obama took the new theme one step further; he told Fox News that more government debt could actually cause a double-dip recession.
"It is important, though, to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession," he said.
People will lose confidence in the U.S. economy? People have no confidence in the current economy, and not because of their concerns about mounting debt. Mounting unemployment and a tsunami of home foreclosures have everyone feeling fragile, and today's disappointing housing start numbers (they fell sharply, by 10 percent compared to the previous month) only serve to reinforce a generalized sense of insecurity.
It is also just as likely that attempting to subtract from the debt right now would precipitate the double-dip recession. Obama is trying to solve a political problem -- successful GOP attacks on government spending -- with rhetoric that signals the direct opposite action of what is necessary to solve a much more fundamental problem: An economy this sick needs more government action, not less.
The usual suspects are sinking into a deeper gloom than ever. Brad DeLong puts the chances of a new Great Depression at five percent, "and it now looks very much as if if such a shock hits the U.S. government will be unable to do a d----- thing about it." Paul Krugman is offering "roughly even odds" on a "Japanese-style lost decade."
Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives are talking up a new jobs bill. Good luck getting the Senate to go along! In the game of chess, the word "zugzwang" describes a situation in which any move made by a player weakens his position. Obama is rapidly nearing that dead-end. If he pushes for more spending, he feeds his political opponents. If he pushes for debt reduction, he runs the risk of disemboweling the recovery. But if he does nothing, we all probably lose.
BOOKS
Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance
Obama's first book, a memoir focused on personal issues of race, identity, and community.
By Barack Obama
The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream
Obama's second book, in which he shares his personal views on faith and values and offers a vision of the future that involves restoring a government that has fallen out of touch with the people.
By Barack Obama
10 reasons there's a bright future for journalism
An optimistic take on what's coming, both for news outlets and news consumers.
By Mark Glaser, Salon
Obama: From Promise to Power
In this compelling book, a Chicago Tribune reporter draws on interviews with Obama, his family, friends, and rivals, as well as his own extensive coverage since Obama's days in the Illinois Senate, to offer a nuanced look at a man of idealism and ambition intent on making history.
By David Mendell
SPEECHES
July 28, 2004: Obama's first national prime-time speech
In this speech, Barack Obama urges America to remember its unity, pledging that "out of this long political darkness a brighter day will come."
August 28, 2008: Obama's acceptance of the Democratic Party's presidential nomination
In this speech, Obama lays into John McCain, describing him as "anything but independent."
November 5th, 2008: Obama's victory speech
In this speech, Obama tells his ecstatic supporters, and the entire nation, that "change has come to America."
January 20, 2009: Obama's inaugural address
The new president calls upon the nation to face its challenges head on, with determination, strength and a commitment to ensuring the delivery of freedom to future generations.
SALON STORIES
How would Barack Obama handle foreign policy?
The presidential contender on dealing with Iran, fighting AIDS in Africa and restoring America's standing in the world.
By Walter Shapiro, Salon
Chicago is Barack Obama's kind of town
The city has a unique history of launching the careers of powerful black politicians -- which is part of the reason Obama moved there.
By Edward McClelland, Salon
American revolutionary
In his acceptance speech, Barack Obama stood up for Democratic values, took the fight to McCain -- and proved that the United States is still capable of reinventing itself.
By Walter Shapiro, Salon
Barack Obama's epic win
The culmination of a brilliant campaign, Obama's unequivocal defeat of John McCain marks a political and generational transformation.
By Walter Shapiro, Salon
Barack Obama, honeymoon killer?
The Clintonites in his Cabinet, forgiveness for Lieberman, the creeping signs of centrism -- progressives aren't ready to panic, yet.
By Mike Madden, Salon
"A new era of responsibility"
Mixing straight talk about dire times with lofty rhetoric about hope and determination, Obama repudiates Bush and vows to get to work.
By Mike Madden, Salon
OTHER STORIES
The Conciliator
Where is Barack Obama coming from?
By Larissa MacFarquhar, The New Yorker
Time's "Person of the Year" coverage of Obama
A strangely fascinating database of Obama-formation, including everything from "6 Degrees of Obama" to a collection of Obama-themed art from Flickr.
Time
The presidency of Barack Obama
This New York Times megapage is the last word on Barack Obama, including everything from his personal biography to his current political stance on detainees and Africa.
The New York Times
Breast panels
Sexiest Man Living
Watching the dominoes fall in Berlin: Reflections on 11/9/09