In the polls


Geraldine Sealey
January 15, 2004 7:20PM (UTC)

Is John Kerry ahead in Iowa? The Zogby poll says he is, although by an absolute split hair and within the margin of error. The Zogby poll actually shows a statistical four-way tie. Kerry: 21.6 percent, Dean and Gephardt 20.9 percent, Edwards 17 percent. Margin of error: 4.5 percent.

Two new New Hampshire polls showing nothing but good news for General Clark: The daily ARG tracking poll shows Clarks strongest showing yet : Dean 29 percent, Clark 24 percent, Kerry 15 percent, Undecided 15 percent. And Suffolk University shows Dean leading Clark 32 percent to 17 percent. Kerry has 12 percent, Lieberman 11 percent, and Undecided gets 17 percent. Margin of error 5 percent.

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An interesting bit of analysis from the Suffolk poll that could have Deaniacs worrying: Dean topped Clark 41 percent to 14 percent among registered Democrats, but only led Clark by a 23 percent to 20 percent margin when it came to independent voters. Currently, unenrolled voters easily outnumber registered Democrats in New Hampshire and have the option of participating in either party primary.

A poll of South Carolina voters (Feb. 3 primary) shows Dean and Clark basically tied for first (25 percent to 23 percent, respectively) with John Edwards next at 17 percent. The party may be over by the time California primary voters take to the polls on March 2, but a new poll shows that so far, Cali likes Dean: 31 percent favor him over Gen. Clark, who got 14 percent.

Polls, polls, polls Is John Kerry ahead in Iowa? The Zogby poll says he is, although by an absolute split hair and within the margin of error. The Zogby poll actually shows a statistical four-way tie. Kerry: 21.6 percent, Dean and Gephardt 20.9 percent, Edwards 17 percent. Margin of error: 4.5 percent.

Two new New Hampshire polls showing nothing but good news for General Clark: The daily ARG tracking poll shows Clark's strongest showing yet : Dean 29 percent, Clark 24 percent, Kerry 15 percent, Undecided 15 percent. And Suffolk University shows Dean leading Clark 32 percent to 17 percent. Kerry has 12 percent, Lieberman 11 percent, and Undecided gets 17 percent. Margin of error 5 percent.

An interesting bit of analysis from the Suffolk poll that could have Deaniacs worrying: "Dean topped Clark 41 percent to 14 percent among registered Democrats, but only led Clark by a 23 percent to 20 percent margin when it came to independent voters. Currently, unenrolled voters easily outnumber registered Democrats in New Hampshire and have the option of participating in either party primary."

A poll of South Carolina voters (Feb. 3 primary) shows Dean and Clark basically tied for first (25 percent to 23 percent, respectively) with John Edwards next at 17 percent. The party may be over by the time California primary voters take to the polls on March 2, but a new poll shows that so far, Cali likes Dean: 31 percent favor him over Gen. Clark, who got 14 percent.

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Geraldine Sealey

Geraldine Sealey is senior news editor at Salon.com.

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