We thought that Kerry's odds were pretty good when the Nickelodeon Kids Poll decisively picked him as the winner (the kids have correctly forecast 4 out of the last 4 elections). And we were elated when the Washington Redskins went down 28-14 on Sunday (ever since 1936, the fate of the incumbent has been correlated with the Redskins' last game before the election).
But when the closing bell rang today at the New York Stock Exchange, a Kerry victory became pretty much a certain thing.
Financial analysts have long noted that a president's odds of reelection appear to be closely correlated with the state of the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- specifically, in years when it loses more than .5 percent in the October before the election, the incumbent should invariably start packing his bags.
Well, it was a close race, but it looks like Bush is on the way out. At the end of trading today, the Index was at 10054.38. That's a loss of .52 percent since October 1st.
Despite Bush's certain defeat, however, War Room thinks it's still a pretty good idea for you to go out and vote.
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