Nate Silver

Tuesday morning update: Obama still over 90 percent in Nate Silver survey

The president dips to a 91 percent favorite -- but Democratic chances of holding the Senate soar in Silver's latest


David Daley
November 6, 2012 5:28PM (UTC)

President Obama slipped in the Tuesday morning update from Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight blog.

But relax, Obama voters: The president only dipped, in Silver's estimation, from a 92.2 percent favorite to win re-election to a 91.6 percent favorite.

Silver also dialed back his Electoral College prediction by one. His analysis now calls for Obama to win 314.6 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's to 223.4.

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Silver's popular vote prediction stayed the same for Obama, at 50.9, but edged up by one-tenth of a percent for Romney, who ticked up to 48.3.

What do the numbers mean? By making Obama a 91.6 favorite, he's suggesting that if the election were held at this moment with this set of polls, Obama would win just over 91 times out of 100, and Romney would be elected in just under nine of those scenarios. Silver has sway because he predicted the 2008 election nearly perfectly.

Silver noted that in the 12 new national polls Monday, "Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one."

Other nuggets in Silver's latest report:

* His Senate analysis continues to show 52.5 seats for the Democrats and 47.5 for the Republicans. (That 0.5 could be Angus King, the Maine independent favored to win, who has said he would vote for President Obama but has not announced which party he will caucus with.)

* But Silver did boost his odds of the likelihood of Democrats retaining control of the Senate. That stood at just over 91 percent yesterday, and soared to 95.3 percent this morning.

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* In the swing states: Florida is a tossup, but Silver has colored it light blue, suggesting a 52.5 percent chance that it will be carried by Obama. He has Obama as a 91.4 percent favorite in Ohio and an 81 percent favorite in Colorado. In the Southern battlegrounds, Silver has Obama as an 80.7 percent favorite in Ohio and Romney as a 73 percent favorite in North Carolina.

* Worried about Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, two states the Republicans have tried to put in play in recent days? Silver calls Obama a 98.8 percent favorite in Pennsylvania and a 97.1 percent favorite in Wisconsin.

* Chuck Todd should simmer down. The NBC political director has been obsessed with a 269-269 Electoral College tie, which would throw the election into the House, and likely to Romney. Silver says there is only a 0.2 percent chance of that happening.


David Daley

David Daley, a former editor of Salon, is the author of the national bestseller "Ratf**ked: Why Your Vote Doesn't Count" and the forthcoming “Unrigged: How Americans Fought Back, Slayed the Gerrymander and Reinvented Democracy.” He is a senior fellow at FairVote.

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Barack Obama Elections 2012 Nate Silver Ohio Polls Swing State Polls

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