One poll says Roy Moore may actually win his Senate race

Fewer Republicans believe the accusations against Moore than did so 10 days ago

By Matthew Rozsa

Staff Writer

Published November 28, 2017 10:51AM (EST)

Roy Moore (Getty/Scott Olson)
Roy Moore (Getty/Scott Olson)

Alabama Republicans may be ready to give Roy Moore a pass for the numerous accusations against him — that is, if they believe the allegations to begin with.

The polling group Change Research found that Moore has reopened an earlier 5-point lead over Democratic candidate Doug Jones. Overall, 49 percent of Alabama voters asked said they plan on voting for Moore while only 44 percent said they would vote for Jones; by contrast, Jones had a 3-point lead over Moore in mid-November, when the accusations against Moore began to make the news.

Moore's comeback has been driven by two main factors, according to the poll. Eighty-eight percent of voters who turned out to support Donald Trump in 2016 have said that they will "definitely" vote for Moore, an increase of six percentage points from mid-November. Similarly, only 9 percent of Trump voters believe the accusations against Moore now, compared to 16 percent who did so in mid-November.

Republican disbelief of the women accusing Moore has had a measurable impact on the overall ratio as well. While the split was 46-30 in favor of the women in mid-November, it is now only 42-38.

Despite Jones' waning numbers, the Democratic candidate has currently outspent Moore on commercials in the state, beating him by 10-to-1 in TV spots, according to NBC News. Moore's campaign recently released an ad of their own, one which depicted the accusations against him as part of a conspiracy by not only Democrats but establishment Republicans like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

So far five women have come forward with various accusations of inappropriate sexual behavior by Moore.

By Matthew Rozsa

Matthew Rozsa is a staff writer at Salon. He received a Master's Degree in History from Rutgers-Newark in 2012 and was awarded a science journalism fellowship from the Metcalf Institute in 2022.

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Alabama Senate Election 2017 Doug Jones Roy Moore