Pennsylvania may be the "most important" swing state in this year’s election: expert

"Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote"

By Alex Henderson
Published September 16, 2020 3:25PM (EDT)
Joe Biden and Donald Trump (Getty Images/Salon)
Joe Biden and Donald Trump (Getty Images/Salon)

This article originally appeared on AlterNet.

Pennsylvania — which Democratic strategist James Carville famously described as Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in between — is among the swing states that could decide whether President Donald Trump wins a second term or former Vice President Joe Biden is inaugurated in January 2021. And pundit Nathaniel Rakich, in an article published by pollster Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website on September 15, explains why Pennsylvania is such a make-or-break state in 2020's presidential election.

"Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election," Rakich explains. "According to FiveThirtyEight's presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: it has a 31% chance of being the tipping-point state. That's what happens when you take one of the most evenly divided states in the union and give it 20 electoral votes."

Rakich adds, "In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84% chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96% chance of winning if Pennsy...

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Alex Henderson

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Alternet Donald Trump Elections Elections 2020 Joe Biden Pennsylvania Politics Republicans