A new survey finds that President Donald Trump — who was elected in 2016 by winning the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote — is in a critical situation when it comes to polls in key battleground states that could swing the election in 2020.
Trump's net approval rating is negative and by double digits in the crucial states of Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to a new Morning Consult poll. Specifically, the president has a 42 percent approval rating and a 54 percent disapproval rating in Iowa, for a net approval rating of minus 12 percent; he posts the same figures in Michigan.
Trump also has a 39 percent approval rating and a 58 percent disapproval rating in New Hampshire, for a net approval rating of minus 19 percent; and he has a 42 percent approval rating and a 55 percent disapproval rating in Wisconsin, for a net approval rating of minus 13 percent.
These are not the only crucial states where Trump's approval rating is below water. In Arizona, he has a 45 percent approval rating and a 51 percent disapproval rating, for a net approval rating of minus 6 percent; in North Carolina he has a 46 percent approval rating and a 50 percent disapproval rating, for a net approval rating of minus 4 percent; he has a 46 percent approval rating and a 50 percent disapproval rating in Ohio, for a net approval rating of minus 4 percent; and he has a 45 percent approval rating and a 52 percent disapproval rating in Pennsylvania, for a net approval rating of minus 7 percent.
Another Morning Consult poll, which was released earlier this week, took a look at the Democrats who could replace Trump in the White House if they prevail in the 2020 election. Former Vice President Joe Biden had a substantial lead with 38 percent of registered voters nationwide, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont with 19 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 10 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 7 percent and Sen. Kamala Harris of California with 7 percent.
A Fox News poll from mid-May suggested that any one of these candidates could present a threat to Trump in a general election. In a face-off with Biden, Trump trails by 11 points (49 percent to 38 percent); and running against Sanders, Trump loses by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent). However, Trump falls within the margin for error in face-offs against Warren (she leads by 43 percent to 41 percent), Harris (both candidates are tied at 41 percent) and Buttigieg (Trump leads by 41 percent to 40 percent).
One state which has received considerable attention is Texas, where Trump's approval rating is floundering, even though he won the red state in the 2016 presidential election by nine percentage points. As Philip Bump of the Washington Post wrote:
Then there’s this new poll of Texans by Quinnipiac University. It has Trump struggling against a number of the Democrats running for the party’s 2020 nomination. He’s up only four points on Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) — and that’s the race in which he’s doing the best. Despite his relative success last year, O’Rourke loses to Trump by three points. Against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Trump’s only up one.
Against former vice president Joe Biden? Trump is losing by four points.