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Obama faces Armageddon

The trouble in Greece may be Mitt Romney's best shot at winning the White House

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Obama faces ArmageddonPresident Obama, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande

September 2008: The collapse of Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers provokes a worldwide economic meltdown.

May 2012: Barack Obama is warned before the Camp David G-8 summit that the financial maelstrom seizing Europe could turn out even worse. If much of Europe slides back into double-dip recession, as Britain has done, millions of Americans will be smacked hard, from Toyota workers in Kentucky to lettuce pickers in sunny California. And almost certainly, Mr. Obama will have turned over the keys to the White House come next January to the “vulture capitalist” Mitt Romney.

Here is the dreadful scenario that growing numbers of analysts fear: Long lines of Greeks, Spaniards and Portuguese pound on bank doors demanding to pull their money out before it is replaced by devalued drachmas, pesetas, escudos. Long-suffering Greek voters fail on June 17 to elect political parties that can form a governing coalition, and Greece takes a messy exit from the Euro. Europe’s already faltering financial system then collapses, sending the entire world into a long-lasting global depression for the new President Romney to tackle.

As one European insider put, the damage could be somewhere “between catastrophic and Armageddon,” while Mexico’s former central banker, Guillermo Ortiz, who was a leading candidate to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that a Greek exit from the Euro could have “an even bigger impact” globally than the Lehman bankruptcy. “If Greece leaves the eurozone, it could detonate a global financial crisis even worse than the 2008 credit crunch, dry up global trade financing and spur another U.S. recession.”

Seeing all this before the Camp David summit, President Obama joined with France’s mildly socialist president François Hollande in calling for new measures to stimulate European growth, against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s insistence on austerity über alles. Obama went even further after the NATO summit in Chicago and urged European leaders to recapitalize their notoriously weak banks — and quickly. But his foresight will mean little if they do not come up with a hard-hitting and fast-moving plan of action, which their Wednesday night summit in Brussels failed to do.

Except for minor concessions toward growth, Merkel is standing firm on growth-destroying budget cuts. The “growth agenda” that Hollande and his Italian and Spanish allies put on the table looks like far too little and much too late to stop a global train wreck. And the bleary-eyed announcement early Thursday morning that European Council president Herman von Rompuy would draft a new plan for greater economic unification to back up the Euro looks like a belated step in the right direction that Europe should have taken years ago, preferably before creating the single currency, as American economists warned at the time.

In the meantime, the Euro is falling, investors are dumping Euro assets, and all eyes are on the June 17 do-over of Greek legislative elections, in which European leaders are playing a double game that will come back to haunt them. Publicly, they reaffirm their commitment to “do everything” to keep Greece from leaving the eurozone while framing the elections as “a referendum” for the Greeks to decide whether or not they wish to remain on the Euro. The major media echo the referendum line, and the once-great Le Monde even ran a front-page editorial by its director boldly proclaiming: “The Euro or the Drachma? It’s up to the Greeks to choose.”

In fact, all this poses a premeditated and not at all disguised threat to Greek voters: Back the conservative New Democracy and the Greek Socialist Party (PASOK), who conspired with Northern European banks and exporters to create the Greek mess and then agreed to the no-hope bailout deal forced on them by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Back the corrupt old guard who will do our bidding, the European leaders threaten, or we’ll push you even harder. And stay away from the left-wing SYRIZA coalition and its surprisingly effective leader Alexis Tsipras, a 37-year-old former student protest leader and Euro-communist.

Why threaten the Greeks? In their first election on May 6, SYRIZA came in second, and the latest polls now show them winning, but still without sufficient votes to form a government. They would, however, have the votes to make it impossible once again for the old guard to form a governing coalition. The party’s growing strength terrifies investors and poses a problem for European leaders, especially those from nominally socialist or social democratic parties that face similar challenges from a more radical Left.

Contrary to the pretense that Tsipras and SYRIZA want to leave the Euro, they have said again and again that they want to keep the Euro. They know that as many as 75 to 80 percent of the Greeks favor both the common currency and the European Union, and they might well refuse to leave even if the rest of Europe wants them out. Nothing in existing treaties permits expelling any country from the eurozone, and this gives Tsipras and SYRIZA a powerful threat of their own in rejecting the bailout deal, which has destroyed the Greek economy and squeezed ordinary Greeks beyond all endurance.

“We want to force European leaders to face reality,” Tsipras said Monday in Paris in the company of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France’s Left Front, which is challenging Hollande’s party in legislative elections on June 10 and 17. “We want to raise awareness that we cannot drive any people in Europe into voluntary suicide.” If not stopped in Greece, Tsipras warned, the same treatment “will be exported to other European countries.”

In refusing even to renegotiate the “hellish” bailout deal, Tsipras is demanding that Europe and the IMF back down, an alternative that European leaders and their friends in the media portray as completely beyond reason. “It is not acceptable for a small country, by its refusal to play by the rules of the game, to continue to put the whole continent in danger,” concluded the front-page editorial in the pro-Hollande Le Monde. “It’s up to the Greeks to choose.” But if they make the wrong choice, the consequences will follow. And “without any qualms.”

That, in all its imperial splendor, is the threat Greek voters now appear to be ignoring. As Tsipras insists, Europe and the IMF will back down, and elements of their retreat are already visible. Hollande, who refuses even to meet with Tsipras, has suggested a willingness to give the Greeks additional time to cut their public spending, while a senior adviser to the German finance ministry suggests that Merkel will blink and make concessions to both Hollande and the Greeks after the elections. But nothing we’ve seen is anywhere near enough to put the Greeks – or the rest of Europe – back on the path to growth and away from leaving the Euro. That would take more than anything now on the table, and the smart money is betting Greece will leave the Euro by New Years Day 2013, with all the damage that will bring.

Former BBC investigative journalist Steve Weissman is at work on a book, "Big Money: How Global Banks, Corporations, and Speculators Rule and How to Break Their Hold."

Frank Browning reported for nearly 30 years for NPR on sex, science and farming. He is the author of, among other books, "A Queer Geography" and "Apples."

Euro crisis’ vultures

For some, the continent's financial crisis is just another opportunity to make lots and lots of money

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Euro crisis' vultures (Credit: Stu Porter via Shutterstock)
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.

BOSTON — It’s an axiom of modern capitalism, almost as certain as death and taxes: No matter how bad an economic crisis gets, someone is bound to get rich from it.

Very rich.

Global PostDuring the 2008-2009 financial meltdown, Goldman Sachs and hedge fund tycoon John Paulson hauled in billions betting against mortgage-backed securities. Likewise, the financial nerds profiled in Michael Lewis’ “The Big Short” cashed in, big time.

And this is nothing new.

Before the UK’s 1994 Black Monday crash, financier-philanthropist George Soros, sensing central bankers with their heads in the sand, made billions shorting the pound sterling — essentially borrowing the currency, selling it, and later paying back his creditors when he could buy it cheaper. He successfully repeated this trick as Southeast Asia went into crisis in 1997.

Now, the euro zone increasingly appears to be in a terminal mess. Growth has stagnated. Debt is out of control. In vulnerable countries like Spain, interest rates are veering toward usury. Governments are bailing out banks. And Greece has imploded, both politically and economically; this week, citizens have been emptying their bank accounts, always a grim sign that economic Armageddon looms.

It’s time for the average person to worry yet again about his job or her disintegrating retirement account. But for the crafty and courageous, opportunity beckons.

So, what investments are they salivating over?

One obvious option would be to shop for cheap stocks on European exchanges. This “value” approach is a time-honored strategy. It’s used by moguls such as Warren Buffet, who advised in the bleakest days of the 2008 mortgage meltdown: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

Anyone who took Buffet’s advice and bought US stocks at the nadir of the financial crisis could have nearly doubled their money by now. Bargain hunting is particularly tempting for individual investors, who could shift 401K allocations into mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) with, say, exposure to Spain or Portugal, whose markets are trading at lows not reached in years.

But it’s not yet time to pursue this strategy, insists David Twibell, president of Denver-based Custom Portfolio Group. “Europe is a slow-motion train wreck … stuck with an unsustainable fiscal mess,” he says. “There’s often a fine line between courage and stupidity, and I would say investing in Europe right now comes dangerously close to the latter.” One critical risk factor: If the euro zone does indeed break apart, you may end up holding investments in national currencies that could plummet in relation to the dollar, wiping out any gains from stock appreciation.

Still, Twibell sees opportunity on the horizon. “There will be a time to bottom fish in Europe,” he says. “The advantage Europe will have in the next few years is that many of its problems will have been resolved at about the same time Japan and the US are starting to feel the repercussions of their excessive borrowing. When that time rolls around, European stocks and bonds will both look very attractive.”

If it’s unwise to cast your lot with Europe at the moment, what about betting against it? That’s an idea that appears to be gaining popularity among “sophisticated” traders, who have begun banking on the currency’s decline.

This is a growing trend. On balance, the “smart money” wagered that the euro would fall in late 2011, but had pulled back from that approach in 2012, says Michael Arold, a model manager for Covestor, an online asset management company.

In recent days, with Greece and Spain floundering and voters across Europe rejecting Germany’s austerity prescription, “Large traders have increased their net short positions again,” says Arold. “Downside momentum is strong,” he adds; “If someone wants to short the euro, he should do so when the smart money starts to get short, not at the end of this process.” It may, in fact, already be too late.

Of course, speculating against the world’s second biggest economy is risky. Economists point out that Europe still has options for addressing the crisis, which could interfere with crisis-oriented strategies. And leaders have compelling reasons to put out the fiscal conflagration. The economy of paymaster Germany, for example, has greatly profited from the bloc. Meanwhile for Greece, a return to the drachma could reap mass bankruptcies, decimate the financial system and plunge the economy into even greater straits, at least in the near term. Moreover, as some experts point out, the dark historical events that eventually led to Europe’s unity still haunt the continent, giving it strong reasons to take action.

Fordham University economist Laura Gonzalez cautions investors to be “wary of speculators that are betting too heavily against the euro anticipating the end of the currency because the EU is not breaking apart any time soon.”

By Gonzalez’s estimate, Europe needs a Marshall Plan to promote growth, along with a two year grace period allowing governments to get their deficits under control. Additionally, a devaluation of the euro so that it’s at par with the dollar would help boost exports and “give the Euro zone a little more oxygen to recover.” The currency bloc, she says, will most likely “come out of this troubling period stronger, more realistic, diverse and dynamic.”

On the other hand, whether Europe can manage its colossal challenges depends on its policymakers — a group that has often failed to demonstrate the kind of vision, decisiveness and creativity demanded of effective leadership.

In other words, whatever the outcome, for the moment the only certainty in Europe will be uncertainty. Markets will swing wildly. The euro and sovereign interest rates will rise and fall.

In this caprice lies yet another opportunity to cash in, says Andrew Karolyi, a finance professor at Cornell University’s Johnson Graduate School of Management.

Karolyi explains that hedge funds (and others) are exploiting market swings using a strategy called a “leveraged volatility play.” The idea is simple: In advance of an event that is likely to have a dramatic impact — such as the Greek elections, an EU economic summit, or perhaps Ireland’s late May referendum on Europe’s new austerity pact — an investor places bets that profit from significant swings, regardless of whether the movements are positive or negative.

Investors generally accomplish this using options: contracts that allow you to buy or sell an asset (like euros) in the future, at an agreed upon price.

For example, if the euro were trading around $1.30 (where it was before the May 6 Greek elections), you would purchase options granting you the right, say, to sell euros if the exchange rate falls below $1.29 or buy them if the rate rises above $1.31 — wagering that the political outcome would drive either substantial gains or losses. The contracts can be bought for relatively modest premiums, and can be leveraged by borrowing on margin.

If the euro swings outside the window defined by the options, the investor pockets the difference between the strike price of the option and the value of the asset.

Incidentally, currency options are readily available to individual investors, through brokers. For anyone so convinced of euro-chaos as to pursue this strategy: One benefit of the leveraged volatility play is that the risk of loss, in the event that asset prices don’t swing as much as expected, is limited to the premiums paid for the options.

Since the euro has slid to nearly $1.25 since the elections, investors deploying this strategy have profited handsomely.

Of course, we should point out that past performance is no guarantee of future results. And even if it were, that would not be reason to gamble the family nest egg without exercising extreme caution. After all, while eye-popping profits make for good headlines, high-flying financiers also often suffer breathtaking losses: Soros, for one, lost $2 billion in the 1998 Russian debt crisis, $700 million in the tech bubble, and $300 million in the 1987 US equities crash.

But he can afford it. Can you?

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David Case is a senior writer and editor at GlobalPost. Follow him @DavidCaseReport.

Merkel’s new vulnerability

After a disastrous showing in a regional election, the German leader's party is at risk -- and so is Euro stability

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Merkel's new vulnerability German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Credit: AP Photo)
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.

BERLIN, Germany – It is a paradox of German politics that Chancellor Angela Merkel remains overwhelming popular, while the parties that make up her governing coalition lurch from one defeat to the next in a string of regional votes.

Global PostThat was made evident yet again on Sunday when her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) suffered their worst ever result in Germany’s most populous state of North-Rhine Westphalia. The party only managed to get just over 26 percent of the vote in the snap election, shedding almost 9 points since securing 35 percent in the last vote there in 2010.

Her junior coalition partners the Free Democrats did manage an impressive comeback, securing a surprise 8 percent and managing to return to the state parliament thanks to its dynamic leader in the state, Christian Lindner. However, the disastrous performance by the CDU will allow the Social Democrats and Greens to form a stable coalition, after operating as a minority government for the past two years.

The SPD won 39 percent of the vote in what had been its traditional heartland, largely thanks to the huge popularity of its leading candidate, state governor Hannelore Kraft. The Greens only fell back slightly, down from 12 to 11 percent, a relief given the strong showing of the Pirates who stormed into their fourth regional parliament after securing almost 8 percent. The post-communist Left Party only attracted just over 2 percent, compared to over 5 percent in 2010, and thus failing to enter parliament.

North Rhine-Westphalia is often a strong indicator of the national mood. When former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder suffered a defeat there in a state vote in 2005 he called an immediate snap general election, which paved the way for Merkel’s rise to power.

Now, seven years later, could the bruising defeat in that state again be a harbinger of change at the federal level?

Even though the CDU had been braced for defeat on Sunday, the extent of the drubbing left the party reeling. “We have been bludgeoned,” said Peter Altmaier, the CDU’s chief whip in the Bundestag, on Sunday.

Their campaign had been a disaster, with their leading candidate Norbert Roettgen infuriating voters by failing to commit to giving up his current job as federal environment minister to lead the state opposition if the CDU were defeated. As such yet another possible internal rival to Merkel has been eliminated. Yet this also signals a defeat for a man who represented the moderate center of the party, and particularly for a possible coalition with the Greens.

While the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia are left to lick their wounds, Merkel and the party strategists in Berlin will have to assess the vote’s significance for the party’s chances of holding onto power after next year’s federal election.

The party had been working on the assumption that the FDP would continue to implode and that the CDU would need to form a new alliance either with the SPD or with the Greens, who it was assumed would fail to muster enough support for a coalition of their own.

Now the victory in a state that is home to one in four Germans points to a possible resurgence of the SPD and Green alliance. However, it might be unwise to assume that the parties could achieve a similar result on a national level and revive their coalition of 1998-2005.

After all much of the victory on Sunday is being attributed to the successful duo of the SPD’s Kraft and the Green party leader and deputy governor Sylvia Loehrmann. The two women worked extremely well together, managing to form alliances with the other parties on a range of issues, and seemed to present a less harsh, more socially oriented governing style. “We put people at the heart of this election campaign,” Kraft said on Sunday.

The SPD at a national level is far less popular, and it has still not decided who will challenge Merkel at the next federal election. The current troika of leaders, Peer Steinbrueck, Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Sigmar Gabriel lack the common touch and warmth displayed by Kraft. They are also more associated with the severe welfare cuts and labor market reforms of the previous SPD-led government, which alienated much of the party’s traditional base.

While Kraft is increasingly being touted as a possible rival to Merkel in 2013 based on her triumph on Sunday, she has so far insisted that she has no desire to switch to federal politics.

Nevertheless the North Rhine-Westphalia election has given both the SPD and Greens a much needed boost. The SPD suffered its worst ever election defeat in the federal election of 2009, attracting only 23 percent of the vote and it has struggled to make headway against the ever popular Merkel.

Their strong performances both in North Rhine-Westphalia and in Schleswig-Holstein the previous week could encourage the opposition to be more forthright in demanding more concessions from Merkel when it comes to her austerity policy in Europe.

Merkel needs a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag in order to ratify the so-called “fiscal compact” which would see EU states commit to strict budget discipline.

The SPD and Greens, already emboldened by the victory of Socialist Francois Hollande, are demanding that the vote be delayed until the French and German leaders agree to some form of growth package to complement the fiscal rectitude ordained by the pact. While the SPD and Greens have largely backed Merkel’s euro policies, they are increasingly complaining that concentrating on austerity alone is not only failing to cure the euro zone’s ills but proving to be counter-productive.

While Merkel has insisted that no more debt can be taken on as part of any growth package, Hollande’s victory and the defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia may prompt her to show more flexibility on going beyond strict austerity in Europe. However, she has insisted that any growth strategy cannot be achieved by taking on more debt and she will not see the pact itself renegotiated, considering that it has already been ratified by a number of countries as is up for a public vote in the Irish referendum on May 31.

What remains to be seen is whether Merkel’s clout in Europe will be affected by her party’s election debacle back home.

After all, the austerity versus growth debate was very much a part of the North Rhine-Westphalia campaign, with the CDU campaigning on the merits of belt-tightening and budget consolidation, while the SPD and Greens advocated a looser approach to state finances.

Kraft’s government had fallen over its budget, which envisaged taking on more debt in order to help out cash-strapped cities dealing with the long-term effects of post-industrialization in a state which has a long tradition of steel production and mining. Roettgen had sought to portray the SPD and Greens as profligate spenders, not unlike the much maligned southern Europeans. In North Rhine-Westphalia at least, it seems German voters were happy to see the purse strings eased.

Nevertheless, polls still show that over 60 percent of Germans do not want growth policies in Europe to involve taking on more debt. And around the same number approves of Merkel’s firm handling of the euro crisis.

Yet, that popularity it seems is not translating into support for her party, despite a relatively strong economy and the lowest unemployment levels in 20 years. And if the euro crisis starts to really impact the German economy, then Merkel’s own popularity, never mind that of her party, could rapidly evaporate.

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German unions to the rescue?

The nation's mass manufacturing strike could benefit workers across the EU

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German unions to the rescue?A masked left-wing protester holds a poster as he walks with other demonstrators at a rally to mark May Day in Berlin's district Kreuzberg, Tuesday, May 1, 2012. (Credit: AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.

BERLIN — Germany’s engineering sector has been hit by an industrial action this week. That’s a sign of just what an island of prosperity Germany has become within the ocean of troubles that is the euro zone.

Global PostWhile workers in many other countries fear for their jobs as their economies tumble into recession, here newly confident labor unions are demanding massive pay rises — and going on strike to get them.

On Wednesday around 30,000 workers in Germany’s vital manufacturing sector downed tools in a coordinated action that affected over 100 companies, including Daimler and Bosch. The strikes continued on Thursday with an estimated 115,000 workers staging a walk out in around 400 companies, including Porsche and Audi, as part of industrial action to secure a hefty 6.5 percent pay rise forGermany’s 3.6 million metalworkers.

Yet, while some workers in troubled countries may look with envy at their German comrades’ brazenness, in fact the action taking place from Berlin to Bavaria could end up being to the benefit of workers in Madrid, Athens or Lisbon.

After all, the stagnating wages of the past 10 years have served to tip the scales decidedly in German companies’ favor, allowing them to boost their competitiveness at a time when wages were soaring in many other euro zone countries.

That, along with actually producing high-quality goods that the rest of the world wants, has been partly to blame for some of the massive disparities within the euro zone, and to the indebtedness of countries that imported all those German goods.

“This has contributed to the imbalances in Europe, and means that Germany is also partly responsible for the current economic crisis in the euro zone,” argues Alexander Herzog-Stein, an economist with the Macroeconomic Policy Institute, a think-tank with links to Germany’s trade unions.

Now, organized labor in Germany could be riding to their fellow Europeans’ rescue, albeit largely out of self interest.

If wage hikes boost domestic consumption back home, it could go some way to correcting the imbalances that have been a hallmark of the monetary union, as German workers spend their wage increases on more products, including imports from other euro-zone states. As such, decent wages in Germany could even help generate much-needed growth elsewhere.

That could be an alternative to brutally slashing jobs and wages in troubled euro-zone countries.

What is certain is that unions here are adamant that wages have not risen fast enough, given Germany’s position as Europe’s industrial powerhouse.

Even in the engineering sector, vital to its export-led economy, wages have stagnated.

Leaders of the metalworkers union, IG Metall say the current employers’ offer of 3 percent is a “farce” and “provocation” and are hoping their action gets them their 6.5 percent. They are also demanding that employers hire apprentices at the end of their training, and that worker representatives have more say over the employment of temporary workers.

Joerg Hoffmann, regional union leader for the wealthy state of Baden-Württemberg, home to Porsche, said that a deal had to be reached by 15 May. “Otherwise we’ll show them the red card.”

The workers in the engineering sector are hoping to emulate other recent successes. Service union Ver.di secured a 6.3 percent pay increase for its 2 million members, following a series of strike actions. And just last weekend Deutsche Telekom agreed to pay its 17,000 employees an overall 6.5 percent increase over two years.

It’s a mark of the revival of confidence among the German trade unions. Now that unemployment has shrunk to its lowest rate in two decades, and with particular industries even complaining of skills shortages, this is a good time to flex their muscles.

It’s a welcome change from their relative weakness over the past decade. Their leverage had already been dented by the mass unemployment that came in the wake of reunification of East and West Germany and the subsequent collapse of East German industry. That was only compounded by the subsequent dot.com crash and the labor-market reforms that made it easier to hire temporary and part-time workers.

The upshot was that in real wage terms, German wages actually decreased over the past decade. Between 2000 and 2007, before the financial crisis even hit, nominal wages only grew by 1 percent, compared to 2.7 percent in the euro zone, and well below the rate of inflation.

At the same time productivity soared. Data released by Germany’s Federal Statistics Office on Monday showed that while average productivity in the European Union had risen by 3.4 percent between 2005 and 2010, in Germany it was 4 percent, compared to 3 percent in France and virtually zero in Italy.

And whereas overall unit labor costs had increased by 6.2 percent in that period, the rise was only 3.6 percent in Germany, and if had not been for the crisis years in 2008 and 2009 when workers were kept on even when orders were slack, those costs would have actually have decreased over the period.

During the crisis the government and companies introduced a short-work scheme that saved many jobs. However, it is also true that during that difficult period, the unions cooperated with employers to keep companies going. Many skilled workers accepted wage cuts or took unpaid leave to help companies get through the slump in demand.

Now it’s payback time. Workers know that Germany’s export sector has been booming and that many of Germany’s industrial giants are raking in the profits. Just last week Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, announced a 10 percent increase on its first quarter operating profit to 3.2 billion euros ($4.2 billion) after seeing a record operating profit of 11.3 billion euros in 2011.

“Naturally the workers also read the newspapers, and they read how well the German economy is doing and how it is being praised,” says Herzog-Stein. “And they are asking for their share.”

On Tuesday, the unions were out in force to celebrate May Day, the traditional day of organized labor, and to reiterate their position. “After years of pay cuts in real terms, after years of efforts to help the country through the crisis and helping save many companies and jobs, it’s our turn now,” Michael Sommer, head of the DGB trade union federation said in a speech.

That sentiment was echoed in the banners held up by many union members who took part in the traditional May Day marches. One in Berlin declared, “It’s time to cough up the money.”

Unions are also demanding a general minimum wage of around 8.50 euros ($11) an hour, something that the center-right coalition has so far resisted. However, as Chancellor Angela Merkel moves to the center, hoping to poach voters from the center-left SPD and Greens, she has indicated in recent weeks that she would now back such a move.

There are some economists who worry that the trend toward higher wages, coupled with the ECB’s low interest rates, could lead to Germany’s greatest fear: inflation. However, others argue that in fact a wage hike is long overdue and should not push prices up. “Wages are rising, but this follows a prolonged period of restraint,” Andreas Rees, chief economist at Unicredit in Munich, told Reuters.

And while it could help the rest of Europe if German consumption picked up even further, it could be of benefit to the German economy. For one, it might help offset any slump in demand in recession-hit Europe. After all, even though German exporters have been able to rely on continued demand outside of the continent, particularly from China, the euro zone still accounts for 40 percent of its market.

“If there is not also a boost in domestic demand then Germany will not remain untouched by the euro crisis,” Herzog-Stein argues. “That is why, out of self interest, we need a stronger and more dynamic domestic market.”

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Spain’s eroding labor rights

Workers blast new reform as dangerous and ineffective, while employers want the country to be more competitive

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Spain's eroding labor rightsA woman leaves a banner after a demonstration against education and health care spending cuts in Madrid, Sunday, April 29, 2012(Credit: AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.

MADRID, Spain — When Mariano Castellanos looks back on the 45 years he has worked in restaurants across the length and breadth of Spain, he is amazed and saddened at how the profession’s prestige has been eroded.

Global Post

“When I started out, any mother would have been happy for their daughter to marry a waiter,” he says, speaking at the back of the restaurant in central Madrid where he is maitre d’. Castellanos, 58, a stocky, jovial man, with a quickness of thought honed by decades on the job, remembers how common it was a couple of decades ago to find good waiters who combined cordiality, calmness, efficiency and the intelligence needed to read a client’s mind — all appealing traits to a potential mother-in-law.

Spain’s army of one million waiters serve 230,000 bars and restaurants, according to the country’s association of waiters, AMYCE, which Castellanos led for more than a decade. With food and drink so integral to Spain’s culture and services so important to its economy, waiters play a key role in society. But, Castellanos explains, the relative drop in the profession’s wages, its unforgiving hours and the lack of opportunities to rise up through the ranks have undermined its social cache. And in many respects, the devaluation of waiting is representative of much broader changes in the Spanish labor market.

“A lot of waiters nowadays are embarrassed to even admit they are waiters,” Castellanos sighs. “On average they barely earn about 1,100 euros ($1,450) per month.”

In February, a new chapter was added to Spain’s complex history of labor rights, when the conservative government of Mariano Rajoy unveiled a sweeping labor reform. Its intention was to make the labor market more flexible and competitive and, in the longer term, to help bring under control Spain’s soaring unemployment rate, which at over 24 percent is the highest in Europe. Its youth unemployment rate is above 50 percent.

Rajoy called the legislation “just, necessary and good for the country … the reform that five million unemployed were waiting for.”

With its emphasis on flexibility and making hiring and firing easier, the reform has been welcomed by business leaders, who have long seen the Spanish labor market as archaic and rigid. They also believe that new measures such as allowing companies to reduce salaries unilaterally after a prolonged period of losses, or to lay off staff for the same reason, are logical.

“We cannot keep the rules of the seventies, rules that were made 40 years ago when the Spanish economy was a closed economy, didn’t belong to the European Union and was not in the middle of a globalized market as we have today,” said Alberto Nadal, of the CEOE, Spain’s main employers’ association. “We have to adapt legislation to make it more flexible.”

But many Spaniards believe the legislation went too far. On March 29, unions led a general strike against the reform, which they are still pressuring the government to alter or withdraw.

In a May Day statement, International Labour Organization Director-General Juan Somavia said, “When youth unemployment rates hover around 50 percent in Spain and Greece, it is obvious that we have reached the limits of this austerity-induced recession. We need a socially-responsible approach to fiscal consolidation. In a democracy, it is more important to retain the long-term trust of people — especially the most vulnerable groups — than to gain the short-term confidence of financial markets.”

Castellanos says this reform follows a trend of declining workers’ rights in Spain, particularly since the 1990s. As Spain modernized, its economy thrived toward the end of the decade. With a real estate bubble driving the boom, Castellanos watched many young waiters drift away from his sector.

“Wages — in catering and many other sectors — couldn’t keep up with the rate of economic growth,” he said. “People could earn about the same working as a waiter as they could working in construction, but they’d choose construction, because they had weekends off.”

Hotels and restaurants made the most of the influx of immigrants, mainly from South America at first, but later from Eastern Europe. Castellanos says many business owners even went abroad to recruit waiters.

“This phenomenon meant wages were kept down and these new arrivals from abroad didn’t demand as much time off,” he says. “Many of them were arriving in Spain alone and so didn’t particularly want to have the whole weekend free, so they’d be happy to work every day.”

Labor expert Joaquin Aparicio says these developments were accompanied by legal changes. Since the democratic transition, he says, labor legislation has been revised around 50 times, always with a view to making the market more flexible and giving employers increased powers as the pressures of the global market grew.

Initially, the glut of jobs across the Spanish economy meant there was relatively little discontent. As president of the AMYCE waiters’ organization between 1997 and 2011, Castellanos did have concerns at how his sector was changing. But he believes the association’s fractious relationship with Comisiones Obreras, one of the country’s powerful main unions, made it difficult for AMYCE to make those worries heard.

In 2003, Comisiones Obreras unsuccessfully tried to pressure the apolitical AMYCE to condemn Spain’s involvement in the invasion of Iraq. The union later shunned AMYCE’s attempts to participate in collective bargaining negotiations with employers’ groups and the government. Castellanos now rues what he sees as AMYCE’s further loss of influence since the economic crisis began to bite.

Miriam Martinez, 20, is studying at Madrid’s school of catering to become a professional waiter. Food is in her family: her father and brother are both waiters and her mother is a chef. Miriam learned the basics of the trade at the family’s Galician-themed restaurant in the mountains outside Madrid.

Dressed in a waiter’s uniform comprising a black pant-suit, a bow tie and epaulettes as she emerges from her classes, Miriam already looks the part. But the new reform worries her.

“It makes things difficult,” she says. “Because they can fire you just like that. It means you have no stability and won’t ever have any.”

And despite her ambitions, she accepts that the opportunities in the sector are limited, as is job stability.

“It’s more difficult to find a job these days and employers are paying less,” she says. “I’d rather not stay in the family business, I want to start my own place — a hotel, or a place like that. But if things don’t work out, I know I might have to fall back on my family for a job.”

A major reason for Martinez’s pessimism is the chasm that has opened up over the years between workers on permanent contracts and those on temporary ones. Permanent contracts are usually well paid, including extra bonuses and up to six weeks’ vacation and the cost for an employer to fire a worker on one has traditionally been prohibitive. Workers on temporary contracts are much cheaper to fire and have few of the rights “permanent” workers enjoy. (The recent labor reform sought to close that gap, by cutting the maximum cost of firing for those on permanent contracts from 45 days’ pay per year to 33 days.)

The loosening of regulations from the mid-1980s encouraged companies to hire workers on cheap, temporary contracts, even when they were doing permanent jobs. Meanwhile, those on lucrative permanent contracts enjoyed the stability.

“There are people in our labor market with huge privileges and they are always the last to be fired,” says Pedro Schwartz, an economist at Madrid’s San Pablo University.

Schwartz contrasts these with the unprotected young workers on Spain’s many kinds of temporary contract.

“The Spanish labor market is a jungle,” Schwartz says. “There are all these different types of contract, and they make the market fragmented and non-competitive.”

Spain’s contract system means that those on temporary contracts — often young people — are liable to get fired when a firm makes cuts, even when they are dynamic, well-educated workers.

Brain Drain

As a 27-year-old labor leader, Saul Perez knows many young Spaniards who are victims of this two-tier labor system. Despite his easy smile and status as head of a Catholic youth association for workers, the Juventud Obrera Cristiana (JOC), his face darkens as he considers the prospects for his generation.

“Most young people are very well educated, we’re the best educated generation in Spain’s history but even so we still can’t find jobs,” he says, speaking at the JOC’s small offices in downtown Madrid. The numbers show he isn’t exaggerating, with unemployment among under-25s at over 50 percent.

The kind of young people Perez refers to would, a decade or more ago, have easily found work in areas such as engineering, scientific research, the civil service, or the arts. But now, many end up doing part-time jobs removed from their expertise as they desperately look for a more suitable job. The prevalence of such young people waiting tables, for example, bothers the veteran Castellanos, who believes they allow restaurant and bar owners to push wages down and lower standards of service.

Perez believes companies and governments in Spain and across Europe have used the euro zone crisis as an excuse to cut back wages and rights and increase profit margins:

“All the economic measures being taken: the cuts, making the labor market more flexible — none of this responds to the needs of those who are working, it responds to the needs of companies, which in order to avoid suffering losses, pressure the government.”

The JOC organizes educational and training programs for young people, as well as group meetings where participants discuss and analyze their life experiences, personal, professional or otherwise. Lately, many of those reunions have a negative tone, Perez says, with participants’ difficulties finding a job or making ends meet often dominating discussions.

The walls of the JOC office are covered in posters informing of religious and work-related events. For Perez, who took part in the recent general strike against the labor reform, the two are inseparable.

“The Church’s social doctrine talks about the human value of work, the dignity of a person above all else,” he says. “And what is going on right now — the fact that we can’t even plan a life or plan to have a family — clearly goes against that Christian doctrine.”

Soaring youth unemployment has sparked the beginnings of a brain drain as young Spaniards seek work in northern and central Europe, a throwback to the country’s wave of emigration in the 1960s. In the first half of 2011, the number of Spaniards relocating to Germany jumped nearly 50 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, according to recent statistics.

This is one of the most tragic consequences of Spain’s labor history. It’s a history that has left a legacy of division: on the one hand, workers who protest and strike against reform, in the belief that unacceptable conditions are being imposed on them which jeopardize a tradition of balanced labor relations; and on the other, employers who believe these same workers are resisting Spain’s transformation into a truly competitive global economy.

Mariano Castellanos, who as a respected maitre d’ is in a unique position to understand the needs and concerns of both worker and employer, sums up the dilemma Spain is facing:

“If we want to be like other industrialized countries, we probably need many of these changes we are seeing. But when you have certain rights which have cost you so much to obtain, losing those rights is very painful.”

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Europe’s new “Marshall Plan”?

With Hollande poised to win the French election, the EU is finally moving away from destructive austerity measures

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Europe's new Socialist Party candidate for the presidential election Francois Hollande(Credit: AP Photo/David Vincent)
This article originally appeared on GlobalPost.

BRUSSELS, Belgium — The ground is shifting in Europe’s debt crisis. The edifice of economic austerity built under the guidance of German Chancellor Angela Merkel is starting to wobble.

Global PostThere’s a new buzz in Brussels about pumping hundreds of billions into a Marshall Plan-inspired fund to get Europeans back to work, devaluing the euro to boost exports or sharing out the euro-zone debt burden.

“This generalized austerity is prolonging the crisis. I can’t accept that. We need growth in Europe,” says Francois Hollande, the Socialist leader tipped to win Sunday’s French presidential election.

“With every day that goes by, I have the feeling that my initiative is more and more understood in Europe,” Hollande said in comments posted on his website Monday.

Hollande is enjoying an eight-point lead over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s vote. His expected victory is the main catalyst behind the emerging pro-growth emphasis in Europe, but there are other factors.

Continuing grim economic news — Spain announced Monday that it had sunk into a second recession in just over two years — is fueling doubts that Europe’s three-year dedication to spending cuts and tax hikes may not be the best way to cure the continent’s economic malaise.

“Europe has misdiagnosed its problems in important respects and set the wrong strategic course,” former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote in a column this weekend. “Only if growth is restored can the euro endure and European financial problems be resolved.”

The Spanish newspaper El Pais reported Sunday that the EU was preparing a 200 billion euro “sort of Marshall Plan” to fund infrastructure projects, green energy and advanced technology.

EU spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen said Monday that such figures were “highly speculative.” However, the EU is putting together a plan to boost growth for approval at what is expected to be a highly significant summit of European leaders on June 28-29.

Wary that the new focus risks further spooking markets, Ahrenkilde Hansen told reporters that going for growth did not mean a return to slack finances. “We are not talking about an alternative to fiscal consolidation,” she said. “The issue is not either fiscal correction, or growth. We need both.”

The late June EU summit is likely to be Hollande’s first if he succeeds in unseating Sarkozy.

Much has been made of the Socialist leader’s expected clash with Merkel due to his criticism of the fiscal discipline treaty that is the centerpiece of her response to the treaty.

Both Merkel and Hollande in recent days endorsed two of the key pro-growth ideas expected to be on the summit agenda: fast-tracking the use of remaining money from the EU’s budget for developing its poorest regions, which ran at 360 billion euros from 2007-2013, and boosting the firepower of the EU’s lending arm, the European Investment Bank.

EU Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn has suggested that lifting its capital by just 10 billion euros could enable the EIB to leverage lending of 180 billion euros.

Although they have continued to spar in media comments, Hollande and Merkel have been preparing the ground for non-confrontational relationship. There are signs of a softening of the Frenchman’s demand for a renegotiation of the fiscal discipline treaty.

Defeat for Sarkozy would however be a blow for Merkel, who offered unprecedented support for the incumbent in the early stages of the French campaign.

She also risks losing allies elsewhere.

The Dutch government, one of the strongest supporters of Merkel’s insistence on austerity for southern Europe, fell last week over its own budget-cutting plans and will face a stern challenge from the center left and far right in September elections.

Parties on both political extremes are seen profiting from a wave of discontent in Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Greece to find a successor to the technocratic government which has gone along with the tough conditions set by the EU in return for bailout packages.

Adding to the pressure over the past few days, several key players have joined the chorus calling for a growth initiative, including European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi; top EU financial services official Michel Barnier; and the UN’s International Labor Organization.

“Austerity has, in fact, resulted in weaker economic growth, increased volatility and a worsening of bank’s balance sheets,” said an ILO report released Monday. “It is high time for a move toward a growth- and job-orientated strategy.

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