Still, in the categories where the Globes have only five nominees, they have a strong predictive record. Look at the best director category: Woody Allen, George Clooney, Michel Hazanavicius (of “The Artist”), Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese. Now, Clooney’s name is a pretty big surprise on that list; I’d have expected to see David Fincher or Steven Spielberg instead. But it’s a highly plausible list. Ditto for the screenplay category, where the nominated films are “Midnight in Paris,” “The Ides of March,” “The Artist,” “The Descendants” and “Moneyball.”

There are a few things we can say with reasonable clarity, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, “The Artist” is for real. As weird as it still seems that a black-and-white silent film by a French director could be a leading Oscar contender, it clearly is. “The Ides of March” and “Moneyball,” two films that did not do well at the box office and got mixed reviews, are clearly still in the money in various categories. Ryan Gosling — who was nominated for best actor for both “Ides” and “Crazy, Stupid, Love” — was not poisoned for awards voters by his year of ridiculous media overexposure. Pretty much all the major actors we were expecting to see nominated are here: Clooney, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jean Dujardin, Michael Fassbender, Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Tilda Swinton.

On the other side of the ledger, it sure looks like Fincher’s “Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” is out of the running for major Oscars, even before regular people get to see it. Rooney Mara got an acting nomination (and she deserves one), but the film was otherwise ignored. This may be reading tea leaves too closely, but I get the feeling that neither Spielberg’s “War Horse” nor Scorsese’s “Hugo,” the two biggest old-time Oscar-bait movies of the year, exactly wowed the Globes voters. Neither got any acting nominations (I’m startled to see Ben Kingsley overlooked for “Hugo”) and Spielberg was left off the directors’ list. Overall, it remains a mixed-up and unsettled year in the awards race; I think “The Descendants” remains the front-runner, with “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris” just behind.

Matt Zoller Seitz:

The Golden Globe ceremony itself tends to be a half-jokey, half-mortifying spectacle, but I’ve got to hand it to the Hollywood Foreign Press: with a few bizarre exceptions, they tend to put out a list of worthy nominees. This year’s crop of TV nods is no exception. Looking over the list I see omissions that I personally don’t approve of, but it’s hard to argue with most of the shows and individuals they did select.

The best drama nominees are solid: HBO’s “Game of Thrones” and “Boardwalk Empire,” Starz’s “Boss,” Showtime’s “Homeland” and FX’s ascendant frightfest “American Horror Story.” I would have liked to have seen the epic modern western saga “Justified” or even “Sons of Anarchy,” which had a consistently strong fourth season, in the place of “Boardwalk Empire,” and “Treme” taking the urban malaise slot over “Boss.” It’s stylish, compelling and superbly acted (especially by star Kelsey Grammer, who got a best dramatic actor nod) but rather silly in places. But I’m not hugely surprised that my proposed alternates were snubbed, as they’re specifically, even defiantly American in their textures. (“Sons of Anarchy” has gotten some Globes love in the past, but maybe the organization is over it now?)

The comedy or musical nominees are three-for-five in my book: ABC’s “Modern Family,” Showtime’s “Episodes” and yes, yes, yes to HBO’s “Enlightened.” But the “Glee” nomination is baffling to me — it’s the only major scripted musical series right now, and it has its brilliant moments, but there are severe quality control problems on that series. And the fifth nominee, Fox’s “New Girl,” just gives me a headache (maybe this is the international cult of Zooey Deschanel — a nominee as best actress in a comedy or musical — asserting its clout?) Those last two slots should have gone to “Louie,” “Community,” “Parks and Recreation,” “Bored to Death” or any number of more deserving half-hour shows.

Best made-for-TV miniseries or movie is a mixed bag: Look for “Downton Abbey” to square off against “Mildred Pierce” in this category and related ones, and probably take the top prize. BBC’s “The Hour” was terrific but doesn’t stand a chance against “Abbey” and “Pierce,” and the nod for HBO’s “Cinema Verite” feels like a reflex; it was pretty good, but didn’t say anything about its subject, documentary filmmaking and the myth of objective detachment, that countless other films hadn’t already said as well or better. And HBO’s “Too Big to Fail,” about a behind-the-scenes conference of CEOs trying to halt the economic collapse of 2008, was a rich guy masturbation fantasy in which the guys who caused the problems were turned into heroic problem solvers; that this movie got nominated at all, in this year of all years, is pretty shameful.

I can’t say much against the acting nominations in any major category. I’d like to see Claire Danes and Damian Lewis of “Homeland” take the top prizes in the drama categories. But they might face tough competition from, respectively, Mireille Enos in “The Killing” (awful show, superb lead female performance) and Grammer in “Boss” (critics groups love to reward an actor who obliterates typecasting, which is one of the reasons why Michael Chiklis of “The Shield” and Bryan Cranston of “Breaking Bad” (who’s up again this year) won in the past. Laura Dern should win as best actress in a comedy or musical for “Enlightened” — case closed — but the eerie, mesmerizing power of eternal It Girl Zooey Deschanel should not be underestimated. I’d like Matt LeBlanc to win best comedy or musical actor for “Episodes,” on which he played a sexually voracious, dumb-brilliant-manipulative version of himself, but the character might be too slippery for this group. Besides, three-time Globe winner Alec Baldwin is up yet again, and these days he tends to accumulate awards the way magnets pick up iron filings.

In my dreams, Kate Winslet and Evan Rachel Wood win best actress and supporting actress in a miniseries or movie for their mother-daughter teamwork in “Mildred Pierce.” Jessica Lange deserves to win best supporting actress for “American Horror Story,” in which she seems to be channeling Bette Davis in “Whatever Happened to Baby Jane?” by way of Blanche DuBois in “A Streetcar Named Desire.” If Peter Dinklage doesn’t pick up yet another award as best supporting actor for “Game of Thrones,” I’ll be most surprised — but I wouldn’t object if Guy Pearce snuck in to win as Monty in “Mildred Pierce,” the kind of sneakily deep performance that tends to be undervalued.

The complete list is here. What do you think?

Also competing for best drama: Martin Scorsese’s Paris adventure “Hugo”; Clooney’s political thriller “The Ides of March”; Brad Pitt’s baseball chronicle “Moneyball”; and Steven Spielberg’s World War I epic “War Horse.”

Joining “The Artist” in the best musical or comedy category are: the cancer story “50/50″; Kristen Wiig’s wedding romp “Bridesmaids”; Woody Allen’s romantic fantasy “Midnight in Paris”; and Michelle Williams’ Marilyn Monroe tale “My Week with Marilyn.”

Clooney has three nominations. Besides best dramatic actor for “The Descendants,” he’s up for directing and screenplay for “The Ides of March.” For the acting prize, Clooney will compete against his “Ides” star Ryan Gosling, who had a second nomination for best musical or comedy actor for the romance “Crazy, Stupid, Love.”

Glenn Close also is a dual contender, as best dramatic actress for the Irish drama “Albert Nobbs” and for best song for writing the lyrics to “Lay Your Head Down,” the film’s theme tune.

Along with the Screen Actors Guild Award nominations a day earlier, the Globes field helps narrow down prospects for the Academy Awards, whose nominations come out Jan. 24.

With drinks and dinner, the Globes are a laid-back affair for Hollywood’s elite compared to the Oscars. The show turned a bit touchy last year as host Ricky Gervais repeatedly made sharp wisecracks about stars and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of about 85 entertainment reporters for overseas outlets that presents the Globes.

But Gervais helped give the show a TV ratings boost, and he’s been invited back as host for a third-straight year.

Five-time Academy Award and Globe nominee Morgan Freeman — who won the supporting-actor Oscar for “Million Dollar Baby” and a best-actor Globe for “Driving Miss Daisy” — will receive the group’s Cecil B. DeMille Award for lifetime achievement at the Jan. 15 ceremony.

Thursday’s nominations in 25 film and television categories will be announced by actors Sofia Vergara, Woody Harrelson and Gerard Butler.

Described by some as “an obvious rip-off of David Bowie,” the band broke up in 1984. Quite oddly, though, they became a runaway success with teenagers in the Philippines in 1985. Because a radio station in Manila misattributed one of their songs — so that listeners couldn’t find the record and would have to keep listening to their station — Seona Dancing never got much credit for their talent.

Gervais did. He stayed in the music business by managing a band called Suede and DJ’ing. Then a while later he created this show called “The Office,” and it was quite successful. And then he starred in a movie called “Ghost Town.” And then he hosted the Golden Globes. (I thought he did a great job, by the way.)

But here’s some more Gervais-as-glam-pop-star. He’ll never perform like this again.

More than a few brave hosts have discovered how daunting the brief affair can be. That includes David Letterman, who has yet to shed memories of his bumpy 1995 Oscar gig that included an oddball phonetics bit mocking the names of Uma Thurman and Oprah Winfrey.

“Ricky Gervais was the host of the (Globes) show — very funny guy,” Letterman said on his late-night CBS show Monday. “But there’s already talk that he’ll never be invited back, and I say, ‘Hey, welcome to the club.’”

At the 2008 Emmy Awards, there was a misguided attempt to pay homage to reality TV by letting five of the genre’s hosts, including Heidi Klum of “Project Runway” and Jeff Probst of “Survivor,” share the emcee job. Their dull joint act bombed, with presenter Jimmy Kimmel dryly complimenting them for being “sufficient.”

Gervais was anything but boring. Unlike last year, however, when he slyly mocked actors as a class by calling them “the most important people on the planet,” he turned very personal.

His targets Sunday included Bruce Willis, the stars of “Sex and the City” and Robert Downey Jr., who retorted onstage, jokingly or not, “Aside from the fact that it’s been hugely mean-spirited, with mildly sinister undertones, I’d say the vibe of the show is pretty good so far, wouldn’t you?”

One of the sharper jabs was at the Golden Globes’ own expense: Gervais joked about a lawsuit by a former publicist for the HFPA that alleges the group engages in payola schemes for nominations and awards.

Gervais initially struck a brave tone on his website, saying he “enjoyed the Globes more this year. I think I had better gags.” He also rejected as “rubbish” the rumor that he was censored as the show progressed. But on Tuesday, he admitted verging on self-doubt in the face of criticism.

“Thanks to the twitterverse, the blogosphere, all the journos and the coolest stars for coming to my rescue,” he said in a posting at rickygervais.com. “It was heartwarming to realise I wasn’t losing my mind. Some reactions nearly had me believing I’d gone too far too. Nearly.”

Among his boosters was Elizabeth Banks (“30 Rock,” “W”), who tweeted, “I thought RG was hilarious. Actors can take it. We have thick skins.”

“Have you noticed that nobody remembers the winners of the Golden Globes — but they do remember Ricky Gervais,” Regis Philbin said Tuesday on his daytime talk show (on which he also announced his retirement).

The HFPA largely stood by its man, issuing the merest squeak of official displeasure over Gervais zingers, which included, “It’s going to be a night of partying and heavy drinking. Or as Charlie Sheen calls it — breakfast.” HFPA President Philip Berk also told The Hollywood Reporter that Gervais was not warned about his performance or kept off-air during the broadcast.

“We loved the show. It was a lot of fun and obviously has a lot of people talking,” the association said in a statement, noting that Gervais is expected to deliver “in your face, sometimes outrageous material. Certainly, in this case, he pushed the envelope and occasionally went too far.”

But the group, which said “overall” it was pleased and called the show “among the best we’ve ever had,” said it hadn’t made a decision about whether Gervais would be invited back next year. Also facing the HFPA in the months ahead is a decision on who will broadcast the Globes next year. Its contract with NBC expired with this year’s show.

Meanwhile, the producers gearing up for the Jan. 25 Oscar nominations announcement and Feb. 27 Academy Awards broadcast have signaled plans for a far different ceremony.

Choosing co-hosts who are respected actors, non-comedians and include a potential nominee — Franco for “127 Hours” — makes a decorous evening likely for the film awards that remain Hollywood’s main self-congratulatory event.

“We have the reputation of the predominant American art form to protect and spread the message to the world,” said Don Mischer, who is producing the ceremony with Bruce Cohen. “This will be watched by billions of people when you put it all together, so you do feel that sense of responsibility.”

Filmmaker Judd Apatow (“Knocked Up,” “Superbad”), who will host the Producers Guild of America Awards on Jan. 22, took a friendly jab at Gervais online and started a Twitter campaign to gather better jokes for his gig.

“I thought Joan Rivers did a wonderful job hosting the Golden Globes tonight,” Apatow joked in a post-show tweet. “Ricky Gervais should do an episode of Extras where he hosts the Golden Globes and is out of tune.”

Calling “mean too lazy for RG,” Apatow invited followers to post jokes better than Gervais’ and promised the “winners” a shout-out at the non-televised awards show. The entries, he tweeted later, demonstrate that “it’s hard to be funny and not vicious. Steve Martin is king.”

Whether Gervais gets a third call to headline the Globes may be determined more by a number than his one-liners. The broadcast attracted nearly 17 million viewers, according to “fast-national” Nielsen figures released Monday, and was NBC’s most-watched prime-time entertainment telecast among advertiser-favored young adult viewers since last year’s Globes.

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AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen contributed to this report.

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Online:

http://www.goldenglobes.org

http://www.oscars.org

http://www.rickygervais.com