The Oscar underdogs that deserve to win (but probably won't)

This race was initially focused on Lily Gladstone’s strong, often silent performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” as she would make history were she to become the first Indigenous actor to be win an Oscar. But the oddsmakers are now favoring Emma Stone’s maximalist performance in “Poor Things,” which involves considerable physical and verbal dexterity.  

The underdog here is Sandra Hüller, whose does exceptional work as Sandra, a writer accused of killing her husband in “Anatomy of a Fall.” From her opening scene, where Sandra is practically flirting with a young woman who is interviewing her, to her deliberate and caring conversations with her blind son Daniel (Milo Machado-Graner), she comes off as a funny, likeable, caring person.

But then Sandra is absolutely stoic on the stand as she is cross-examined for practically every decision she has made in her life. Watching her react  —  by not reacting  —  as a recording seemingly incriminates her and accusations fly, shows how masterful Hüller’s performance truly is. And that Sandra’s utmost concern that her friend and lawyer, Vincent (Swann Arlaud) believes her to be innocent is full of drama. A scene of Sandra crying in a car is astonishing and should be her Oscar clip. Hüller was also magnificent in “The Zone of Interest,” as the privileged, selfish wife of a Nazi commandant, but her performance in “Anatomy” is staggeringly great.

The Oscar will likely go to Robert Downey, Jr. for “Oppenheimer,” which aligns with the film’s domination. Downey delivers solid work as Lewis Strauss, and the prize may be seen as an opportunity to reward his body of work over a decades-long career.

The underdog here is Mark Ruffalo, whose comic turn as the cad Duncan Wedderburn in "Poor Things." His rants are hilarious, and Ruffalo’s mugging is a comic highlight. The actor can wring laughs by revealing his incredulity at Bella’s behavior; his expressions of shock are priceless. Watching Ruffalo process what Bella has done provides a giddy pleasure, especially when he deadpans, “Oh,” or “Bella!” because he expresses so much emotion in a single word response. The actor gives what may be a career best performance here. It is a shame he is a longshot to win. But at least he was nominated — unlike his costar Willem Dafoe, who was also fantastic in “Poor Things,” but was snubbed this year.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a lock for this race for her kitchen scene in “The Holdovers.” It is next to impossible for anyone to spoil her chances of winning, as she's collected statuette after statuette during this awards season.

The underdog in this category is Jodie Foster in Netflix's “Nyad,” who delivers an ingratiating performance as Bonnie, Diana Nyad’s (nominee Annette Bening) ride-or-die bestie and coach who joins the 60-year-old Nyad on an “adventure” — swimming from Cuba to the Florida Keys. Equal parts cheerleader and drill sergeant, Bonnie understands the rush that achieving against the odds provides and watching her convince others to help her and Diana accomplish the impossible is inspiring.

While Bening is terrific in the title role, Foster steals her every scene with her tough love telling a hospitalized Diana about her experience “watching her die,” or when truly exasperated, quietly asking, “Do you have any idea how exhausting you are as a friend?” Foster’s Bonnie may be second banana, but she engenders real compassion when she asserts herself letting viewers in on her life even if Diana is blind to Bonnie’s desires. And when Bonnie practically goes hoarse coaching Diana on her historic swim, it is impossible not to share her triumph. If only Foster could triumph at the Oscars.