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The questions “When Harry Met Sally” make us consider today

Maybe we’ve been looking for the wrong answers from “When Harry Met Sally.”  Easy enough to do, since the plot revolves around the question of whether men and women can truly be friends.

Billy Crystal’s Harry Burns is very sure he knows the right answer at the tender age of 21 when, during their 18-hour road trip to New York, he tells fellow University of Chicago graduate Sally Albright (Meg Ryan) that such relationships are impossible “because the sex part always gets in the way.”

Nora Ephron’s script doesn’t present a thesis that hadn’t played out in any number of movies before Rob Reiner made it into a standard-bearer for romantic comedies. She simply chose not to disguise her dance of witty banter in “will they/won’t they” lingerie. Even the trailer skips right over that – they absolutely do.

This being a romance, the audience is left with the best version of that interlude’s outcome since they break up, only make up and kiss again thanks to Harry’s legendary New Year’s Eve speech and the denouement.

“Happily ever after” is a foregone conclusion in rom-coms, and has been since this film became an instant classic. Wrapping their tale that way may have satisfied the audience, but it also left that headlining question unanswered. Yes, they became friends. Then they got married, so . . . ?

Nearly three and a half decades after “When Harry Met Sally” became an instant classic it’s either a settled argument, since so many people have platonic friendships with members of the opposite sex, or impossible to agree on.

It’s also understood to be an unrealistic depiction of romance. This doesn’t refer to the part about men and women being friends, but the idea of any pair of relative strangers organically getting to know each other at all.

This occurred to me during my latest rewatch, this time from the perspective of a middle-aged woman whose two best friends are single and constantly sharing their horror stories.

Dating apps and social media have gamified the promise of human connection. Even the ones that are supposedly dedicated to helping women sort relationship material from the first-generation Harry Burnses, the ones who wonder out loud how long a man is obligated to hold a woman after sex, are easily circumvented by said monsters.

On the other hand, we keep hearing stories about male loneliness – how men are less likely than ever to have friends and how difficult it is for anybody at any age to find connection with other human beings.

Much of this coverage looks at middle-aged men but other polls suggest this epidemic is hitting younger ones too. One 2024 report from the Survey Center on American Life found that only 56% of Gen Z adults and 54% of Gen Z men were involved in a romantic relationship when they were teenagers. Approximately 44% of Gen Z men report having no relationship experience at all during their teen years.

This echoes the findings of a 2018 study by the Cigna Group and market research firm Ipsos, in which Gen Z and Millennial adults reported themselves to be lonelier than older respondents.

But there’s also hard data to show that Sally’s fear of being 40 and single (“Someday!”) would make her less of an outlier today since, as of 2021 analysis of Census Bureau data by Pew Research Center, a quarter of American adults report never having been married.

Maybe the evergreen draw of “When Harry Met Sally” isn’t in the overt romance that grows between them but in the series of interactions where they get to know each other. That includes the conversations they share with their friends  – Sally with her best friend Marie (Carrie Fisher), and Harry with Jess (Bruno Kirby), his buddy who, like him, thinks he has everything figured out.

There is realism in the way Ephron’s writing and Reiner’s direction trace the contours of intimacy between two people.

We can’t count out its setting, centering a version of New York that is timeless and probably doesn’t exist anymore. The city is a connector where small apartments push residents to make public places their living rooms. Running into like-minded people is common. Therefore, Harry and Sally’s chance meeting in a bookstore more than a decade after their disastrous car trip is organic. She’s freshly broken up with her boyfriend Joe, and his wife has just left him.

(Everybody has their favorite lines from this movie; one of mine is Ephron’s sly way of acknowledging Harry’s newfound vulnerability when Marie murmurs to Sally, upon noticing Harry spying on them, “Someone is staring at you in ‘Personal Growth.’” )

From there Marie makes her exit so Harry and Sally can grab a meal, go for a walk and deftly reset their familiarity.

Harry and Sally are a pair of lonely people who got their hearts broken by people they fell in love with before they really got to know them. Audio of a depicted phone call they share while watching “Casablanca” together plays over scenes of each of them miserably enduring their solitude or trying to ignore it before deciding to be lonely together.  

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As their platonic connection develops, they call each other on their lack of consideration and learn to endure the other one’s quirks better than anyone else.

Watching old movies over the phone – a landline, no less! – could still happen. Nowadays that shared experience likely would be facilitated by a video call and screen sharing. 

Technology and landscapes change, and technology changes landscapes: in 2024 bookstores are as rare as chance meetings. Tech has also been blamed for the withering of some of the basics of our social contract, namely the ability to be honest and open with other people, which forms the basis of Harry and Sally’s relationship.

The Cigna study also found that social media use was not solely to blame; a disconnection from family and social connections was also a major predictor.

It also preceded the pandemic, which only served to make people feel even more distant than they did before. Constantly updating data from a YouGov tracker poll confirms that, with 21% of adult respondents on July 3, 2024, answering the question “Thinking about the past week, on how many days have you set aside a minimum of an hour specifically for socializing with other people?” with “None.”

Coming in second place is “Every day” at 19.6%, so there’s that.

Chance meetings between people still happen all the time. I swear, they do! But back then they looked so easy. In early June a column in The Cut titled “Is Dating a Total Nightmare for You Right Now?” went viral, connecting a string of social media posts featuring women sharing their dating horror stories. Its lead subject is Anya Haas who posted a painfully honest TikTok in mid-May detailing her frustrating experience of a night out in Austin.

“I’ve been trying to meet someone, just anybody worth my time for years,” she said. Dating apps are awful, the 33-year-old says, so she’s been trying to meet people in public. It did not go well, especially when she went to a local comedy club and sat in the front row where the comics kept calling out the fact that she was alone. “I’m tired of it. I’m over it. I’m sick of it. When I try, like, s**t like this happens.”

In the main Haas was lamenting how impossible it’s been for her to meet a guy after seven years of being single. But the part that stuck with me is that the app that instigated her evening from hell was designed to facilitate meeting people. That’s all she wanted, to at least “meet people that I can become friends with.” That’s not too much to ask, right?


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If only Ephron were around to answer that question; she died in 2012. A year after the movie came out, though, the script was released in book form with a foreword Ephron wrote to clarify her position on that question.

“The truth is that men don’t want to be friends with women. Men know they don’t understand women, and they don’t much care,” she writes. “They want women as lovers, as wives, as mothers, but they’re really not interested in them as friends. They have friends. Men are their friends. And they talk to their male friends about sports, and I have no idea what else.

“Women, on the other hand, are dying to be friends with men,” Ephron continued. “Women know they don’t understand men, and it bothers them: they think that if only they could be friends with them, they would understand them and, what’s more (and this is their gravest mistake), it would help. Women think if they could just understand men, they could do something. Women are always trying to do something.”

Are they though? Nowadays their fatigue with so much doing has led to many women — and men — trading disappointment and frustration for removing themselves from the dating merry-go-round.

Cinematic romances are so much easier to navigate and readily available thanks to streaming. We know how those end.

Still, for all of the bittersweet fantasy that “When Harry Met Sally” peddles, there is realism in the way Ephron’s writing and Reiner’s direction trace the contours of intimacy between two people, slowly built over months and time spent together.

So the question one might ask may be related to that. What have we lost over the last 35 years that makes this friendship/love story almost mythical in its ability to affect us? Answering that won’t necessarily solve the mystery driving the soundtrack composer Harry Connick Jr.’s lyric about making lovers out of friends. But it could reduce the number of strangers in our lives, which may be a start.

“It was staged”: Conspiracy theories are flying after Trump’s Pennsylvania shooting

Almost immediately after the news began to circulate on Saturday that a man — now identified as 20-year-old registered Republican Thomas Matthew Crooks — botched what appears to have been an attempted assassination of former President Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, conspiracy theories were flying.

After firing off several rounds from a semi-automatic AR-15 rifle while perched on the roof of a building just outside the rally's security perimeter, narrowly missing what could have been a fatal injury to Trump, Crooks was killed by Secret Service. It was later discovered that explosive devices were concealed in his car, parked nearby. As of Sunday morning, there has been no indication that Crooks had any help in his endeavor to kill the former president, or that the violent event was "staged" in any way, as many on social media have been suggesting. Nevertheless, the finger-pointing continues.

"That s**t was more staged than a Tyler Perry production of Madea Runs for President," says “Insecure” actor Amanda Seales in a video posted to social media. "I lived in Harlem long enough to know gunshots do not sound like making popcorn on the stove."

Sharing a video from the rally in which Trump, after being injured, pushes away from his security detail to raise his fist in the air for a now-famous photo, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene offers an alternate theory that the press and Democrats as a whole are to blame for the shooting.

"Someone just tried to ASSASSINATE President Trump. The Democrats and the media are to blame for every drop of blood spilled today," she writes. "For years and years, they’ve demonized him and his supporters. Today, someone finally tried to take out the leader of our America First and the greatest president of all time."

"I predict that media institutions that have previously been cynical about 'conspiracy theories' may suddenly utilize language like 'false flags' and 'staged event," writes celebrity hot-taker Russell Brand, adding his two cents on the matter.


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What seems to have set off a string of theories that the shooting was staged, or that Trump's own security detail was behind it in some way, was an on-site BBC interview with a man outside the rally on Saturday, who said that he flagged down security after witnessing Crooks getting into position to fire, only to have his warnings ignored.

"There's only a few buildings around here," the man says to BBC in the clip. "Why is Secret Service not on every building?"

"The reason most Black people believe the attempted assassination was staged yesterday is because we've seen historically what real assassinations look like by white vigilantes," public speaker Kenny Akers adds in a post to X.

"Rumors are circulating that the Trump assassination attempt was an inside job after the release of this angle. Pay attention to what the secret service agent does seconds before," writes Matt Wallace, along with a clip that appears to show Trump's security detail hustling up to the stage and then pausing, seconds before shots were fired.

Wild theories aside, what's been verified is that security will be amplified at the upcoming Republican National Convention, which Trump still plans to attend.

Trump rally shooter identified by FBI as a 20-year-old registered Republican

The FBI identified twenty-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks as the person responsible for shooting at former President Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania Saturday evening. 

Crooks — a registered Republican — shot off several rounds from a semi-automatic AR-15 rifle while perched on the roof of a building just outside the security perimeter, causing the presumptive GOP nominee’s upper ear to be wounded. Secret Service agents killed Crooks at the scene, according to law enforcement officials.

Trump was flown to Newark, New Jersey late Saturday night. He reported his first-person account of the event that evening on TruthSocial, writing: “I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin.” 

Crooks was identified by the FBI as a resident of Bethel Park, about 35 miles south of Butler where the rally was being held. He attended Bethel Park High School in 2022, according to a local media report and the school's commencement video, CNN reported.

A listing in Pennsylvania’s voter database that matched Crooks’ name, age, and Bethel Park address established that Crooks was registered to vote as a Republican. The 2024 presidential election would have been the first he would be old enough to vote in, CNN reported.

In addition to this, the Federal Election Commission records indicate that in January 2021, a donor by the name of Thomas Crooks with the same address contributed $15 to a Democratic-aligned political action committee called the Progressive Turnout Project 

While Trump’s overall health remains well, the “multiple shots” fired at the event left one killed and two injured, the Secret Service confirmed on X.

Sunday morning, the former president expressed gratitude for everyone’s thoughts and prayers in a post to social media, thanking “God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening.”

In an update from The Wall Street Journal, authorities found explosive devices in Crooks' car, which was parked near the Trump rally, noting that "police received multiple reports of suspicious packages around near where the shooter was, authorities said, prompting them to dispatch bomb technicians."

 

 

 

 

Shannen Doherty dies at 53, after lengthy battle with cancer

Shannen Doherty, best known for her roles as Brenda Walsh in "Beverly Hills, 90210" and Prue Halliwell in "Charmed," died at the age of 53 on Saturday, after a lengthy battle with cancer.

The latest in a string of celebrity deaths this week, including Richard Simmons, Dr. Ruth, and Shelley Duvall, the news of Doherty's death was confirmed by her publicist, Leslie Sloane. 

"It is with a heavy heart that I confirm the passing of actress Shannen Doherty. On Saturday, July 13, she lost her battle with cancer after many years of fighting the disease," Sloane writes. "The devoted daughter, sister, aunt and friend was surrounded by her loved ones as well as her dog, Bowie. The family asks for their privacy at this time so they can grieve in peace."

Doherty, who was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2015, was very open and generous with sharing her struggles with the disease, speaking optimistically, but realistically, about her chances of beating it in many episodes of her podcast, “Let’s Be Clear.”

"You know, for the first time in a couple of months, probably, I feel hopeful because there are so many more protocols now," she said during an episode of her podcast in June. "Whereas before I was hopeful, but I was still getting prepared. Now I’m like, oh, I don’t need to be prepared. I need to go on a vacation. I need to go on a boat again and explore places.”

In 2019, the "Beverly Hills, 90210" cast, and fans of the long-running show, mourned the loss of another key cast member, Luke Perry, who died at 52 after suffering a massive ischemic stroke at his home in Sherman Oaks, Los Angeles.

Donald Trump survives an assassination attempt. Can America survive what happens next?

It's unacceptably trite to say that we knew something like this would happen. But on some level, how could we not? Despite the expressions of sympathy and support from both Donald Trump's allies and his most committed political opponents, and the ritual pronouncements that political violence is unacceptable, no one in America can truly be surprised by each new outbreak of mayhem and bloodshed, whether it occurs on the streets of a large city, inside a rural church or a suburban big-box retail store, or at a presidential campaign rally in post-industrial western Pennsylvania.

It appears that Trump was not seriously injured in a probable assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday evening. He posted on Truth Social that he "was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear." Two other people have died in this incident, according to local officials. One of them was the presumed shooter, reportedly killed by the Secret Service, and the other was a person not yet identified at the time of writing, very likely a rally attendee who was shot accidentally. Two additional spectators were injured, according to the Secret Service.

In other words, what happened in Butler was bad enough, and it could have been much worse. What is about to happen will very likely be even more damaging, as we move from fragmentary news reporting into the realm of speculation, name-calling, finger-pointing, conspiracy theory and half-baked political forecasting. Any pause in the 2024 presidential campaign following this incident will be brief: The Republican National Convention begins on Monday in Milwaukee, and Trump is scheduled to accept the party's nomination in a nationally televised speech on Thursday evening. 

We live in the worst possible version of a choose-your-own-adventure video game, powerless to control events but endlessly free to invent our own hidden messages.

We may or may not learn salient facts about the alleged Pennsylvania shooter and their motivations in the days to come, but it is not overly cynical to say that the facts about such events barely matter. Consider what we know, or believe we know, about the police killing of George Floyd, the near-fatal attack on Paul Pelosi or the mass shootings burned into our collective memory in Uvalde or Parkland or Sandy Hook. Consider the national Rorschach test of Jan. 6, 2021, an event that for millions of Americans has been transformed from one kind of thing to another, from an outrageous violation to a heroic act of resistance. For that matter, consider the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy in the 1960s, which remain the source of unresolved national trauma and a wellspring for unified-field conspiracy theories of every possible variety.

None of those events, or dozens of others we could name, can adequately be explained or consigned to the past with the help of psychoanalysis or political screeds on Facebook or the tortured manifestos left behind by murderers. To a large extent, we never really know what drives people to commit acts of irrational violence — or, to put it more accurately, we are overloaded with too many reasons, and we all get to pick the ones that support our existing worldview. So it will be, unhappily for our rapidly decomposing polity, with this apparent assassination attempt against Donald Trump. We live in the worst possible version of a choose-your-own-adventure video game, powerless to control events but endlessly free to concoct our own hidden messages and secret meanings, based on whatever actual or invented evidence we like.

It wasn't surprising that as soon as reports emerged that shots had been fired at Trump, social media erupted with outlandish allegations that Joe Biden had ordered a hit on his nemesis or, conversely, that the incident was a false-flag operation meant to cast blame on Trump-hating liberals and provoke a wave of sympathy for the recently-convicted ex-president. In the days ahead, liberal or left-leaning pundits will no doubt soberly propose that the MAGA movement brought this event on itself by constantly invoking a fascist-flavored rhetoric of violent retribution. Conservatives will counter that this attack was the result of Trump derangement syndrome and the left's congenital contempt for the desires and yearnings of "real Americans."


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Blaming the outbreaks of unhinged violence that make American society virtually unique in the world on one political faction, one socioeconomic group or one cultural grouping strikes me as missing the point entirely. We — if there is still a "we," which is open to doubt — created this tragic, farcical situation, in which two elderly candidates no one particularly likes are running against each other in an election most of us dread, and someone tried to kill one of them this weekend for reasons we simultaneously do not understand and understand all too well. 

We all did that. We traveled to this bad place together, which means, in theory, that we can still decide to go somewhere else, and be different than this. We might start by not saying things that are blatantly and outrageously untrue, whenever something like this happens.

Bill Clinton posted a message on X late on Saturday that began, "Violence has no place in America." What can that possibly mean, coming from a person who spent eight years as the actual president of a nation that was born in violence and has been infused with violence throughout its existence, and which has inflicted immense violence on its own people, its perceived enemies and an unknowable number of innocent people around the world? 

Many other people said essentially the same thing, of course: It's a ritual refusal to tell the truth or look in the mirror, as counterfactual and illogical as any of the magical thinking found in organized religion. What happened in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday night — whomever we want to blame for it and whatever explanations we want to concoct — was quintessentially American, an act drawn from our national history, our national heritage, our national soul. Face that fact honestly, and maybe we can get somewhere.

White supremacy with a law degree: How do we escape “The Originalism Trap”?

In her new book, “The Originalism Trap: How Extremists Stole the Constitution and How We the People Can Take It Back,” Madiba K. Dennie critiques the legal doctrine known as "originalism," calling it a movement born out of opposition to the school desegregation mandated by the Supreme Court's Brown v. Board of Education decision. Her argument is broadly compatible with those made by Eric Segall in "Originalism as Faith" (Salon story here) and Erwin Chemerinsky in "Worse Than Nothing: The Dangerous Fallacy of Originalism" (interview here). But in characterizing originalism as a “trap” and situating it historically, Dennie's analysis cuts deeper into the harm caused by originalist doctrine, without sacrificing nuance, rigor or scope.

Beyond that, to call originalism a “trap” is to imply something about freedom, and about what the U.S. Constitution actually promises. Dennie, deputy editor at the legal commentary outlet Balls and Strikes and a former counsel at the Brennan Center, advances an alternative, "inclusive" interpretation of the Constitution, rooted in the Reconstruction amendments and the Brown decision's forward-looking approach, also found in such famous cases as Loving v. Virginia, Roe v. Wade and Obergefell v. Hodges — all of which have been opposed by so-called originalists.

But the history of those cases is not just the articulation of a more inclusive vision regarding whose rights should be protected. It’s also a product of the American people organizing to advance the vision of constitutional protection from below — another more inclusive sense of meaning-making. It’s not just the Supreme Court that interprets and gives meaning to the Constitution, Dennie argues. We all do, particularly in the form of social movements, including the civil rights movement, feminism, the LGBTQ pride movement and others. Her last chapter spells out several ways in which lawyers and non-lawyers alike can more deliberately and effectively do this. To explore her ideas, I recently spoke with Dennie by Zoom. This transcript has been edited for clarity and length.

Your book was blurbed by eminent legal scholars like Erwin Chemerinsky and Eric Segall, but you go further than they do, calling originalism not just a fallacy or a misguided faith but a trap. Why is that a more useful way to see it?

I think that calling it a trap gets at the idea that originalism is basically a setup. It was something purposefully designed by the conservative legal movement to achieve the goals of the Republican Party. I think the trap concept gets at this idea that you are not actually going to be able to use it to achieve the kind of egalitarian, democratic purposes you may be interested in, that it's actually more of a ruse to cover up conservative policy goals. 

You write that "Most stories about originalism’s rise begin with Robert Bork," but you start much earlier than that, with Brown v. Board of Education. What do we learn by starting there?

Starting with Brown is more revealing. It gives you that necessary backdrop against which originalism was formalized as an official theory of law. In Brown v. Board, the Supreme Court actually asked the parties if they could provide supplemental briefing on how the Reconstruction Congress would have understood the 14th Amendment to apply to segregated schools. And the parties came up with conflicting answers, which already undercuts the idea that originalism can provide you one objective answer. Kansas argued that it was never the intention of the writers of the 14th Amendment to prevent states from exercising their authority to have segregated schools. 

The idea of originalism was that "original understanding is the singular acceptable method of constitutional interpretation, and that requires you to maintain racial segregation and to uphold white supremacy."

When the court stepped away from that in Brown, and said that we actually can't turn back the clock to whatever the Reconstruction Congress may have thought, or even what we thought when Plessy v. Ferguson was decided, and we instead need to consider these core democratic principles and the role of education now , this was an outrage to many on the right. You had 100 members of Congress come together and put forth their Declaration of Constitutional Principles, now known more commonly as the Southern Manifesto. They argued that Brown v. Board was wrongly decided, in significant part because it deviated from the original understanding of the Constitution. They said that the court must follow what this original understanding was, and if you do that, you have to maintain segregation. 

I think this is the first real declaration of originalism. They didn’t use the word yet, but [the idea was] that original understanding is the singular acceptable method of constitutional interpretation, rather than just a factor of many you can consider — and also that doing so requires you to maintain racial segregation and to uphold white supremacy. That was always the actual goal. So everything we see after that is sort of providing legal flourishes. It's dressing up the idea in legalese, giving white supremacy a law degree and saying, "This isn't actually me being bigoted, this is what the Constitution requires."

Your book goes beyond a critique of originalism to advance an alternative you call "inclusive constitutionalism," rooted most powerfully in the Reconstruction amendments. Explain what you mean by that and how it contrasts with originalism.

I think the defining point of originalism is that the meaning of the Constitution is fixed, it's frozen at the moment of enactment. They say you have to look at a particular point in time if you want to know what the Constitution means today. I reject that idea. I instead encourage us to look at the principles — a point of principle rather than a point in time — that were the basis of the Reconstruction amendments. I say that the whole purpose of the Reconstruction amendments was to facilitate for the first time an actual functioning multiracial democracy. The Reconstruction amendments were seeking to address the status of newly freed formerly enslaved Black people and actually incorporate them into the polity and create an egalitarian society. That was the whole grand idea. 

This is a substantial shift from the Constitution that existed before before the Civil War. I think we need to take that shift into consideration and say that the Reconstruction amendments transformed the whole Constitution in order to transform the country. So when we are considering what any part of the Constitution means, we should be doing it with those goals in mind, saying that we need to look through the lens of the purposes of the Reconstruction amendments and trying to bring about an inclusive multiracial democracy. So by inclusive constitutionalism I mean that the Constitution includes everyone, and the point of it is to make an inclusive democracy real. So that's what we need to do when we interpret any of its provisions.

The concept of "substantive due process" plays a key role in your thinking. You note that originalists "want it gone," but they're not the only ones. That concept gets criticized because of its alleged origin in the Lochner decision, which struck down limits on working hours. You argue that's not the right way to understand it. So what does that term mean, and how should we really understand it?

The 14th Amendment protects a range of rights, and among them is the right to due process of law. Some conservatives, like Clarence Thomas, argue that process itself is all that is required, that it has no substantive meaning. They say that the due process clause tells you that the government has to check certain boxes before it infringes a given liberty, but it doesn't prevent them from infringing that liberty, it just says they have to get over the requisite hurdles first. I think that doesn't actually make sense. You can't understand what process protects your rights and liberties unless you also think about what rights and liberties should be protected. They necessarily go together. So this idea of substantive due process moves beyond the steps that the government has to do, to the question of what things the government can't do, where it's just a realm for yourself, free from government violation or infringement or curtailment of your liberties. 

"You can't understand what 'substantive due process' protects your rights and liberties unless you also think about what rights and liberties should be protected. They necessarily go together."

This has been controversial at times and some folks link it to Lochner, where the court struck down a law that was trying to protect bakers who were working long hours in really awful conditions. The New York state legislature had stepped in and created wage and hour restrictions and the court said, no, this is infringing on the liberty of workers and employers to form a contract. They entered into this agreement and the government is unreasonably injecting itself into their agreement. 

I think that’s a far cry from the kind of substantive due process decisions that we have seen more recently in cases like Roe v. Wade or Obergefell v. Hodges. In Lochner, the court was using this idea of substantive liberty rights to protect inequality, basically to protect the ability of employers to run roughshod over their employees, to maintain dominant power relations. But the way that substantive due process has been used in the following decades has been to protect vulnerable people, to disrupt those hierarchical systems rather than entrench them. I think that’s completely different from the from the world we see in Lochner, so it doesn't really make sense to conflate these two things. They are serving very different purposes. One is trying to maintain oppression and the other is trying to upend it. One is saying that we need to allow whoever has more power to exercise that power, whereas the other is trying to protect people who have less power and to to get rid of systems of subordination. I think these are just categorically different things. 

You note that in deciding the Griswold case — which effectively legalized contraception for married couples — "parts of the opinion read like a Mad Libs where the phrasal template is 'any amendment that isn’t the 14th.'" So they still seem to be allergic to Lochner. But then, in Loving v. Virginia, which struck down laws against interracial marriage, the ruling was clearly grounded in the 14th Amendment. What was going on with those two decisions?

I think in Griswold the court was still very nervous of the potential Lochner association. They didn't want to be seen as just freewheeling, and they had not yet articulated the actual "substantive due process" idea that I just laid out on how it's grounded in protecting marginalized people. They hadn’t gotten there yet. So they were concerned that it would look like they were just doing whatever, and were really trying to avoid any invocation of the 14th Amendment, much to Justice [John Marshall] Harlan’s chagrin. In his concurring opinion, he's like, "You guys, we can just use the 14th Amendment. It’s right there."

But by the time you get to Loving, the court feels more comfortable recognizing the expansiveness of the 14th Amendment. I think part of that shift comes from advocacy that racial justice organizations were doing. I think it really is a testament to the idea that constitutional interpretation does shift over time, In addition to being normatively undesirable, originalism is also just empirically untrue. We know that the Constitution's meaning changes, because we’ve seen it change all these times through history, and I would say that is often a good thing. Overturning Plessy v. Ferguson [which held that racially segregated schools were constitutional] is a good thing. These are positive steps. 

So how were the developments around reproductive rights that led to Roe v. Wade echoed in the evolution of rulings on LGBTQ rights and marriage equality? 

Those cases really underscore the idea that the Constitution protects bodily autonomy, that it protects privacy and intimate relationships, that you have the right to make your own decisions about these really core personal matters. Reproductive rights is one example of that, but the principle extends into multiple areas, so they realized that it also applies to gay couples who have an interest in having their actual relationships not be marginalized by law,  and they too can have equal marriage rights as everybody else. 

All these substantive due process decisions build on each other in a way that precedents often do. It forms what I call the human-rights Jenga, just putting these blocks one on top of another, building up this tower of rights, which has now led us to a really dangerous position. Because the court pulled out the Roe v. Wade block, so now the tower is destabilized and all sorts of rights are called into question.

You go through the decisions on LGBTQ rights and one important theme is the way originalists use the existence of past laws criminalizing homosexual conduct, and the absence of any protections, as a justification. Then, when they get to the Dobbs decision [which overturned Roe] they rely on this bizarre, cherry-picked history. What's your analysis of the way that decision uses "history and tradition"? 

Originalism’s use of history and tradition is remarkably hypocritical, and remarkably flexible. It bends and shifts depending on what outcome they want to reach. They present originalism as a neutral tool, saying, "If you just look at history, you know, that’s objective." But there are so many questions that obscures, such as" Whose history? History from what point in time? How are you defining the historical right that you're looking for? There are so many considerations. Suggesting you're looking to history and tradition doesn't actually tell you anything. It just allows a neutral-seeming cover for justices to do whatever cherry-picking they desire. 

"Originalism’s use of history and tradition is remarkably hypocritical, and remarkably flexible. It bends and shifts depending on what outcome they want to reach."

I think that was made extremely clear when Dobbs was decided and then Bruen was decided, on consecutive days. In Bruen, the court says that gun regulation is presumptively unconstitutional if there is no historical analogue from the founding era. If past legislatures didn't regulate guns in a particular way, that's evidence that they knew they couldn't, that it was unconstitutional for them to do so. But then, literally the next day, when presented with historical evidence of legislatures not criminalizing abortion, of a pregnant person having the right to end a pregnancy at least until they felt a fetus move, now the court says, "Well, just because they didn't do it doesn't mean they thought they couldn't." So on back-to-back days they use the absence of legislation to make directly conflicting inferences about what Congress has the power to do. So it is just blatantly hypocritical, blatantly outcome-oriented. There's nothing like a neutral application of principle, because they're doing opposite things, just based on the decision they wanted to come to. It really illustrates the farcical nature of originalism and how it applies in very convenient ways for the conservative legal movement. 

In your chapter "Stealing Our Elections," you tell the story of how Barack Obama's election gave rise to a wave of voter-suppression laws. You analogize that to how, after Brown v. Board of Education, there was a massive flight from public education. So there’s a gut-level conservative base reaction that is then backed up by the courts in a series of decisions. A really crucial one was Shelby County v. Holder, where Chief Justice Roberts advanced the idea of equal state sovereignty, which you tie back to the Dred Scott decision. How do you make sense of what happened there, and how does it fit with your larger theme?

This is a little bit of a challenging question because there are so many disastrous things going on in Shelby County. I think the single most important thing to know about Shelby County is that the Supreme Court is literally just making things up in order to further white supremacy. This idea of equal sovereignty that John Roberts presented as a justification to strike down the Voting Rights Act — he just pulled that, mostly, out of thin air. 

He cited two cases completely unrelated to the Voting Rights Act that were used in Dred Scott, of all cases. So he’s smuggling in this horrific antebellum reasoning and he's relying on this idea that was actually called the "equal footing doctrine" — he couldn’t even bother to get the name right — which said that states have to be admitted to the Union on the same terms as other states. That wasn't actually always true in practice, but that was the broad idea. And he looked at another case about navigable water rights in the states and pieces these together, with no basis, to say, well, it's really important for the federal government to treat states the same, and the states have sovereign rights. So the Voting Rights Act is infringing on states rights, and we can now hollow out the primary vehicle for enforcement of the Constitution's protections against racial discrimination in voting. 


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This is just nonsense. This is just garbage. There is no actual intellectual support for any of that. But he dressed it up in nice legalese to obscure what he was doing, and use this nonsense to justify removing protections for Black voters, and the consequences were swift and severe. Immediately, you started seeing strict anti-voter legislation get enacted. Immediately, you saw a rise in voter suppression. States that had had their laws blocked before by the Department of Justice were now like, "Ah, excellent! We can now implement the exact same law that was found discriminatory before."

One of the laws enacted immediately in the wake of Shelby was eventually struck down in the circuit court which described the law at issue — this is a direct quote — as “targeting Black voters with almost surgical precision.” So this is the level of intentional discrimination that John Roberts unleashed with this decision. That’s horrible, first of all, and second of all, it’s leading us to the dangerous place we’re in today, where we have all these restrictive voter laws, all these efforts to dilute people of color's voting power, whether through redistricting or through overturning elections and just ignoring the ballots of millions of people. I think there is a relationship between that attack on democracy then and the attacks on democracy now. It wasn't at the Capitol, it was in a courtroom — but it was still a coup, in a way.

You have another chapter called "Stealing the Census," which I don't think people recognize as being at the same level as voting rights or reproductive rights and privacy rights. What's going on there and why is it important? 

I think that the census is notoriously slept on. Folks don't know a lot about the census, it’s not something that engages people. But the census is actually the cornerstone of American democracy. In order to serve the people, we have to know who the people are. We have to know where they are and how many of them there are, so we can try to serve the people's needs accordingly, to know how best to allocate our resources. The census is a constitutionally required decennial count of the population. Then representation in the House of Representatives is based on that number. So there's a direct link between population and representation in the House, at least. In the Senate, not so much. 

"I think there is a relationship between that attack on democracy [in the Shelby County decision] and the attacks on democracy now. It wasn't at the Capitol, it was in a courtroom — but it was still a coup, in a way."

That was a really important American innovation. One of the things that I find interesting and troubling about originalism, as it applies to the census, is that originalists basically argue that the Constitution requires a flawed census. Our understanding of science and math has evolved a lot in the past 200-plus years. We have better statistical models at our disposal now, better things we can use to get a more accurate enumeration of the population. Yet there have been originalist arguments that we can't use those because the Constitution understood an actual enumeration to mean not actually counting the number of people and getting an accurate number, but going one by one, not using statistical models. I like to think of this as the "Little Bunny Foo Foo" method, because it's like you’re scooping up all the people and bopping them on the head. 

It doesn't make sense to say that the Constitution requires you to have an inaccurate census, and it’s especially outrageous when we know that these inaccuracies are not evenly distributed. We have differential undercounts among some groups, whether they’re racial groups or low-income groups or age groups — children under age 5 are especially undercounted — or unhoused people. So it means that resources are sent to the wrong areas. Typically, poor and browner communities get less than they should be getting, while richer and whiter communities get more than they should be getting. According to originalists, that's what the Constitution requires. I just find that absurd.

In the final chapter, you write about ways to build the movement for a more inclusive form of constitutionalism. What are some ways that ordinary people can help? 

There are a range of tactics and strategies available. I think the connective thread through all of them — whether you had the good sense not to go to law school or whether you're an attorney — is rejecting the idea that the Supreme Court is the sole arbiter of what's constitutional and what's not. I think people need to reclaim the idea that they too can have a say in constitutional interpretation and assert their idea of what the Constitution means. 

This is not actually novel. This is something people have historically done in all the big social movements we care about. These were the results of people saying what they think the Constitution means, and I think people can and should seize any opportunity that presents itself to act out their constitutional vision. Examples of this include the Montgomery bus boycott: They believed that segregation was unconstitutional, so they refused to ride these buses. They put their constitutional vision into practice. If you look at the gay rights movement, they believed there was a constitutional right to marriage equality, so they started at the state level, passing all these equal marriage laws and putting that into practice. More recently, even when the Supreme Court has said there is no constitutional right to abortion, we see ballot initiatives where people explicitly update their state constitutions to say, yes, there is. 

These are examples of important measures that regular people can take. They’re fighting for new laws but also acting out what they think the law requires, whether that's through a boycott or protest or any other kind of direct action. One of my favorite examples is jury duty. I think too many of us avoid jury duty. It’s not many people's idea of a good time. But it does present people with an opportunity to choose to affirm or reject the government's understanding of the Constitution. We've seen this happen before. 

"Too many of us avoid jury duty. It’s not many people's idea of a good time. But it does present people with an opportunity to affirm or reject the government's understanding of the Constitution."

I give an example in the book of a case where a bunch of protesters were arrested and asserted to the community that they didn't think what they did should be considered a crime. They understood the law differently and believed their cause was a righteous one. So even though there was no real question as to whether they did the things they were accused of doing — they admitted that they did — they thought it shouldn't be a crime, and people chose to acquit them. I think that will be really important in this era of rampant criminalization of protest, of reproductive health. Whenever there are civil rights fights going on that the government does not like, the police get involved. So I think it is useful for people to know that they always have the power to say no if they're on a jury. 

Finally, what's the most important question I didn't ask? And what’s the answer?

I guess the question would be: Why should people still have any hope today? Why should they care about any of this, given the awful state of the of the law right now? And I think that the dramatic and terrible swings in the law that we've seen should actually remind us that change is possible, that what exists now will not necessarily exist tomorrow, and that people have the power to effectuate those changes. The law is not a static instrument, it’s not something immutable that is handed down from on high. It's something that people ultimately shape and have always shaped, and we can continue to do so.

How naturally-produced opioids help plumb the depths of animal minds

Amidst the ongoing debate over whether artificial intelligence is really sentient, scientists are still trying to figure out the same thing about non-human animals. Amazingly, naturally-produced painkillers have long been considered a key indicator of possible sentience in animals. America can ban all the opioids it wants, but still won’t stop your brain from making them or seeking the relief from suffering they provide, and so they have been seen as a kind of smoking gun for sentience in non-human animals as well. But a look at the evolutionary role of endorphins really highlights the complexity of conscious experience – especially our own.

The field of animal consciousness studies has grown in leaps and bounds over the past couple of decades. The clearest evidence comes from studies in neuroscience on the neurophysiological basis of behavioral responses to animals’ subjective experiences — such as a dog seeking to relieve its thirst by drinking — definitively overturns the legacy of mid-20th Century behaviorism, in which animals were considered to have a set of automatic behaviors that nevertheless didn’t reflect a sentient mind.

“We are constantly underestimating animals,” David Mellor, a retired professor of applied physiology and bioethics, told Salon from his home in New Zealand. “Every time, we are surprised at how smart animals are. It’s because we have underestimated them, not because they’ve suddenly become smart.”

Indeed, it’s human understanding that seems to have deepened.

“It’s really only in the last fifteen years, I would say, that there’s been an attempt to integrate consciousness science with comparative psychology or comparative cognition, the study of animal minds, so that now we’re seeing the emergence of a science of animal consciousness,” Jonathan Birch, a philosopher of biological sciences at the London School of Economics, told Salon. Birch was just back in London after co-hosting a conference in April on animal consciousness in New York City that culminated in the release of a pithy but important new declaration on animal sentience by dozens of luminaries in the field.

Over those last fifteen years, the markers we look for as hints of sentience – that within their furry (or scaly, or feathery) little heads there is a quality of “what it’s like for that animal to be itself” – have grown beyond simply what we expect based on our own human or primate, or even mammal experience.

We’ve become willing to consider that other mammals and less familiar animals – crabs, say, or octopuses – really are sentient, not just seeming so.

Importantly, the definition of sentience isn’t a neutral one: it is profoundly political, linked as it is to resource use and granting of rights. Once we understand a creature to be sentient, we recognize ethical imperatives. It is not so long since it was broadly believed that human infants didn’t experience pain the way older children and adults do, with babies rarely receiving anesthetics before painful procedures, their cries considered automatic and their nervous systems considered too underdeveloped to offer them a subjective experience of pain. A 1987 study of stress responses in newborns provided the first strong evidence that this was terribly wrong.

We no longer routinely deny that what looks like a behavioral response to pleasure or pain in a baby reflects its subjective sense of positive or negative feelings. And more recently, we’ve become willing to consider that other mammals and less familiar animals – crabs, say, or octopuses – really are sentient, not just seeming so. While we can consider many aspects of sentience, perhaps the most basic aspect we look for – the one that resonates most strongly, especially when we consider how sentience applies to animal rights, remains the ability to experience enjoyment and suffering, pleasure or pain.


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To apply evolving understandings of animals’ subjective experience and its relation to structure and function to animal welfare, Mellor came up with the term “welfare-aligned sentience.”

“Basically, it is that animals that can have positive and negative experiences that matter to them are sentient in a welfare-aligned sense.” he said. “Because the welfare of an animal depends on the balance of positive and negative experiences it can have at any one time or over a period.”

Evolution produced sentience

The kingdom of animals is a broad category that includes everything from mosquitos to chimpanzees. Vertebrates are a sub-group of animals with backbones, a development that emerged some 450 million years ago. Given the prevalence of back pain in at least some of their long-suffering descendants, perhaps it’s appropriate that with the first vertebrates on Earth came the first painkillers on Earth.

Of course we’re speaking about endorphins – naturally-produced opioids pumped out by the brains and spinal cord, not only those of humans but of every vertebrate. Endorphin is a portmanteau of “endogenous opioid” and in fact drugs like morphine and fentanyl only work in our bodies because they mimic the effects of these innate peptides.

"There’s at least a realistic possibility of conscious experience in all of these animals."

Every creature with a backbone releases endorphins in response to stress. The existence of this self-made morphine has been considered a way of identifying animals – until recently, mostly just mammals – capable of experiencing pleasure and pain. In fact, RSPCA scientists argue that having such neurotransmitters constitutes one form of evidence for sentience. We understand creatures that produce their own morphine to relieve pain are creatures capable of experiencing pleasure and pain, able to suffer and for this reason – the thinking goes – entitled to not be abused or treated in such a way as to cause unnecessary pain.

Mellor further argues that in welfare-aligned sentience we might try to support animals under our care to thrive, facilitating what’s called “positive-valenced experiences” that, just like pain, also suggest that “sense of what it’s like to be oneself” — things like warmth, comfort, interest and enjoyment.

And so we can consider aspects of animal consciousness beyond the experience of suffering, such as playfulness and curiosity, the ability to make decisions, purposefulness. We’re also expanding our understanding of what sort of evidence we should be looking for.

You don’t need a backbone to be sentient

Although invertebrates do have the opioid precursor proenkephalin and some other signs of precursors to the opioids found in vertebrates like us, endorphins as we know them evolved in vertebrates. Thus opioid receptors are not found in invertebrate animals like the nematode C. elegans, the honeybee or the squid. While some research has found that morphine can have analgesic effects on crayfish, we don’t yet know what type of receptor it’s targeting, though it probably relates to these evolutionarily early starts at an opioid system.

But invertebrates like octopuses are known to be intelligent, even playful. Should their inability to produce their own opioids  preclude them from being considered sentient? Ah, but that would be applying a human bias, or rather a vertebrate bias, to our quest to understand sentience in creatures as unlike us as possible. So we need to look for other chemicals that might have evolved to fulfill analogous functions, whether the experience of suffering and its relief, or other attributes we increasingly recognize as aspects of a conscious experience.

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“In terms of vertebrates, [this means] having the equivalent of a cerebral cortex. And that doesn’t mean that cephalopods and crustaceans and so on that don’t have a nervous system the same as vertebrates are not sentient,” Mellor told Salon. "The neural bundles and so on in them clearly have a capacity to motivate behaviors that are purposeful."

“We acknowledge a huge amount of uncertainty in this area,” Birch told Salon, “but also want to emphasize that despite that uncertainty, there’s quite a lot of high quality evidence for conscious experience, not just in mammals and birds, but also in fishes, reptiles, amphibians and invertebrates like octopuses, crabs, lobsters and insects. There’s at least a realistic possibility of conscious experience in all of these animals”.

It’s reasonable to expect that different aspects of sentience evolved at different points in the evolutionary tree, with divergent groups going on to develop their own ways of being conscious and having a sense of what it’s like to be themselves.

“There’s quite a lot of behaviors where if you saw them in a mammal or bird, you will quite readily accept the behavior as evidence of pain,” Birch explained. “And so it’s largely about avoiding double standards. When we’re thinking about pain in vertebrates, and invertebrates display the same markers, we should be willing to entertain the idea of pain in those animals as well.”

Once you start looking beyond just pain, where we are able to use morphine to test for the experience of pain and its relief, other neurotransmitters than endorphins can become clues to the neurophysiological bases of subjective or sentient experience. In shore crabs, for example, Prozac may calm experimentally-induced anxious behaviors. Birch also cites an experiment in which lidocaine was used to relieve experimentally-induced pain from an injection of acetic acid in an octopus.

The New York Declaration on Animal Consciousness is meant to be a conservative minimum that everyone can agree on despite the uncertainties on exactly how sentient some of these animals are. It reads in its entirety:

“Which animals have the capacity for conscious experience? While much uncertainty remains, some points of wide agreement have emerged.

First, there is strong scientific support for attributions of conscious experience to other mammals and to birds.

Second, the empirical evidence indicates at least a realistic possibility of conscious experience in all vertebrates (including reptiles, amphibians, and fishes) and many invertebrates (including, at minimum, cephalopod mollusks, decapod crustaceans, and insects).

Third, when there is a realistic possibility of conscious experience in an animal, it is irresponsible to ignore that possibility in decisions affecting that animal. We should consider welfare risks and use the evidence to inform our responses to these risks.”

Seeking evidence where we find it

Rather than moving from a purely behaviorist approach to a purely neurochemical one, the current thinking is that we should evaluate possible consciousness with an open mind, and in fact seek out evidence for sentience, correcting for our own anthropic or perhaps vertebrate biases by combining evidence in the form of behaviors that, if we did them, we would attribute sentience to them, and in the form of neurotransmitters and neural structures analogous to those that allow us to, well, experience our own experiences.

If you give honeybees a vigorous sixty-second shaking, mimicking an attack on their hive, they can develop pessimistic cognitive biases: coming to expect the worst. As with humans, crayfish and capybaras, if you look you’ll find the biochemical markers of the poor bees’ cognitive change. In this case, a reduction of the chemical messengers dopamine, octopamine (a chemical analogous to the norepinephrine that has largely replaced its function in vertebrates), and serotonin in their hemolymph, the invertebrate equivalent of blood.

If we are willing to entertain the notion of sentience in bees, where will this end? A new pre-print atlas of neurotransmitters maps out such chemicals in C. elegans, a millimeter-long multicellular roundworm often used in biological experiments. Are we positing sentience in this little nematode? Not yet. And it doesn’t seem equipped to feel pain with opioid receptors, though like other invertebrates, it may have that very primitive opioid system.

But with familiar neurochemicals like glutamate, acetylcholine, GABA, serotonin, tyramine and octopamine zipping around its primitive nervous system, it’s worth paying close attention to its behavior, too, so we can do our best to help all our animal relations thrive.

Is a US war in the Middle East coming? No, because it’s already here

In mid-June, the Associated Press announced that the U.S. Navy had been engaged in the most intense naval combat since the end of World War II, which surely would come as a surprise to most Americans. This time, the fighting isn’t taking place in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans but in the Red Sea and the adversary is Yemen’s — yes, Yemen’s! — Shiite party-militia, the Helpers of God (Ansar Allah), often known, thanks to their leading clan, as the Houthis. They are supporting the Palestinians of Gaza against the Israeli campaign of total war on that small enclave, while, in recent months, they have faced repeated air strikes from American planes and have responded by, among other things, attacking an American aircraft carrier and other ships off their coast. Their weapons of choice are rockets, drones, small boats rigged with explosives and — a first! — anti-ship ballistic missiles with which they have targeted Red Sea shipping. The Houthis see the U.S. Navy as part of the Israeli war effort.

The "Gate of Lamentation"

In a sense, it couldn’t be more remarkable, historically speaking. Modest numbers of Yemenis have managed to launch a challenge to the prevailing world order, despite being poor, weak and brown, attributes that usually make people invisible to the American establishment. One all-too-modern asset the Houthis have is the emergence of micro-weaponry in our world — small drones and rockets that, at the moment, can’t be easily wiped out even by the sophisticated armaments of the U.S. Navy.

Another is geographical. The Houthis command the Tihamah coastal plain, the eastern littoral of the Red Sea. It stretches from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (the entry point to that sea from the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean) to the Suez Canal, which connects the shipping in those waters to the Mediterranean, and so to Europe. The Bab el-Mandeb, known for being treacherous to navigate even in the most peaceable of times, is said to mean the "Gate of Lamentation," and these days, it’s living up to its name. Keep in mind that 10% of world seaborne trade flows through the Suez Canal and, perhaps even more importantly, 12% of the world’s energy supplies.

What we might call the Battle of the Tihamah has already lasted seven months and, surprisingly enough, given the opponents, its outcome remains in doubt. The AP quotes Brian Clark, a senior fellow at the neoconservative Hudson Institute and a former Navy submariner, as expressing concerns that the Houthis are on the verge of penetrating American naval defenses with their missiles, raising the possibility that they could inflict significant damage on a U.S. destroyer or even an aircraft carrier. Repeated American and British air strikes against suspected Houthi weapons sites in and around the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, have so far failed to halt the war on shipping. Even high-tech American Reaper drones are no longer assured of dominating Middle Eastern airspace since the Houthis have shot down four of those $30 million weapons so far.

Idling the Suez Canal

Given how little Americans generally know about Yemen, some historical background is perhaps in order. The Houthi movement has its roots in Zaydi Shiism, which took hold in northern Yemen in the 890s. (Yes, the 890s, not the 1890s!). Today’s Zaydis are upset by Israeli atrocities in Gaza. Last December, large crowds of them came out in the Zaydi stronghold of Saadeh and other northern Yemeni towns to protest Israel’s intensive bombing of that 25-mile strip of land. Waving Yemeni and Palestinian flags, they pledged support against “the armies of tyranny,” shouting, “We closed Bab el-Mandeb, O Zionist, do not approach!” and “The Yemeni response is legitimate, and the Red Sea is forbidden!”

The Houthis have indeed struck commercial container ships in the Red Sea, even seizing one, the Galaxy Leader (which, believe it or not, they turned into a tourist attraction). They also sank two cargo ships, killing three crew members. Although they maintain that they are only hitting Israeli-owned vessels, most of their attacks have, in fact, targeted the vessels of unrelated third parties like Greece. Their strikes have, however, caused a major disruption in world trade.

The Houthis have struck commercial container ships in the Red Sea, even seizing one, the Galaxy Leader (which, believe it or not, they turned into a tourist attraction).

The Houthis have also fired large numbers of ballistic missiles at the Israeli Red Sea port of Eilat, idling it since November. Some 5% of Israel’s imports once arrived through Eilat. Now, such trade has been rerouted to Mediterranean ports at a distinctly higher cost, while southern Israel’s economy has taken a big hit. Gideon Golber, CEO of the Port of Eilat, demanded that the U.S. intervene. And Israel is anything but the only country to suffer from such attacks. Ports such as Massawa, Port Sudan and Berbera in the Horn of Africa have also become ghost towns, while traffic through the Suez Canal is now so light that Egypt, which collects transit tolls, is suffering significant economic damage.

In addition, those Houthi strikes, local as they may seem, have had an impact on global supply chains. Insurance costs have risen radically, with crushing war-risk premiums. Ocean container ship rates surged this spring, as companies involved in the trade between Asia and Europe have been forced to avoid the Suez Canal and instead take a far longer route around the Cape of Good Hope and up the Atlantic coast of Africa. Shanghai to Rotterdam rates skyrocketed from $1,452 for a 40-foot container in July of last year to $5,270 in late May 2024.

Revolutionary Shiite Islam

The present militia commander in Yemen, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, considers himself part of a Shiite revolutionary tradition that goes back a long, long way. So, to truly grasp the dangers of the moment for the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea, it makes sense, believe it or not, to momentarily journey deep into history.

Last year, al-Houthi observed the death in battle of the founder of his tradition, Zayd Ibn Ali, in the year 740. His “movement, renaissance, jihad and martyrdom,” he said, “made a great contribution to the continuity of the authentic Islam of Muhammad. … He faced tyranny and had an impact on instituting change.”

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A generation of Americans involved in the Middle East has come to understand that there are two major branches of Islam, the Shiites and the Sunnis. Neither is monolithic, with each branch having several denominations. The division between the two goes back to questions about the succession to the Prophet Muhammad (who died in 632). One faction of early believers invested leadership in senior disciples of the Prophet from his Quraysh clan. Over the centuries, these became the Sunnis.

Another faction, which gradually evolved into the Shiites, favored Muhammad’s son-in-law and first cousin, Ali ibn Abi Talib. Seeking a dynastic succession, they invested leadership in Ali’s descendants through the Prophet’s daughter Fatimah. Most Shiites historically acknowledge 12 Imams or leaders of the dynasty. The Zaydis, however, accepted only five early Imams.

Unlike the Shiites of Iran and Iraq, Yemen’s Zaydis never had ayatollahs. Nor did they curse Sunnis, with whom they often had good relations. The Zaydi branch of Shiism in Yemen was led by court judges or qadis, typically hailing from a caste of putative descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, the Sayyids or Sadah, who emerged as mediators in tribal feuds. Critics of today’s Helpers of God government in North Yemen allege that, despite its populist rhetoric, it is dominated by a handful of clans who consider themselves descendants of the Prophet, including the Houthis themselves.

Saudi hegemony and the rise of the Houthis

Forms of Arab nationalism and a rhetoric of anti-imperialism are anything but new in Yemen. After World War II, with European empires weakened, a desire for independence swept the Global South. Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt emerged as the nationalist leader who finally kicked the British out of his country, inspiring so many others in the region. Egyptian-backed young officers in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, staged a coup in 1962 against a hidebound theocratic leader who had long kept the country in a state of isolation. In the process, they drew it into a civil war between republican nationalists and royalists. Britain, Saudi Arabia and Israel all backed the royalists, but some 100,000 crack Egyptian troops won the day for the young officers before withdrawing in 1970.

In 1978, Col. Ali Abdallah Saleh, a politician in North Yemen, launched an internal coup within the officer corps there and appointed himself president for life. His corrupt government, putatively a secular Arab nationalist one, would receive billions of dollars from the fundamentalist royalists of Saudi Arabia.


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The Helpers of God party militia, or the Houthis, arose among the Zaydi Shiites of northern Yemen in the 1990s as a backlash against the inroads that neighboring, wealthy Wahhabi Saudi Arabia had made. That country’s Wahhabism had arisen as a puritan reform of Sunnism in the 18th century. Saleh allowed its missionaries to proselytize the Shiite Zaydis, provoking the anger of the latter.

Under the influence of the anti-Saudi Houthi family, Zaydi militiamen based in Saadeh in Yemen’s hardscrabble north turned radical, coming into frequent conflict with the Yemeni army. When the Arab Spring youth revolt overthrew Saleh in 2012, the Houthis’ political wing sought influence in the new government. But in September 2014, impatient with an interminable reform process aimed at drafting a new constitution and electing a new parliament, the Houthis marched into the capital, Sanaa, and took it over. Behind the scenes, they had allied with the deposed president, Saleh, before his death, and the army faction still loyal to him, which gave them access to billions of dollars in American-supplied weaponry. By early 2015, the Houthis had expelled Saleh’s successor, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, from the capital and made an unsuccessful bid to take over all of Yemen from Saadeh in the north to Aden in the south.

Critics of the Houthi government in North Yemen allege that, despite its populist rhetoric, it is dominated by clans who consider themselves descendants of the Prophet.

Meanwhile, their dominance of North Yemen proved unacceptable to the Saudis and the allied United Arab Emirates, whose secular potentate, Mohammed Bin Zayed, had long despised such Islamic political movements. As a result, those two countries launched an air war against the Helpers of God in the spring of 2015. The ruinous Seven Years War that followed would displace millions and endanger even more millions with food insecurity and disease. It failed, however, to dislodge the Helpers of God and, by 2022, a truce was finally agreed to. Perhaps thanks to that painful experience, the Saudis have declined to join the Americans this year in the Battle of Tihamah. And in some fashion, the Houthis’ experience of the intensive aerial bombing tactics of Saudi Arabia and the UAE years ago undoubtedly left them with particular sympathy for the Palestinians under incessant Israeli air assault in Gaza.

An alliance of resistance

Both the Saudis and the Emiratis saw the Houthis as a mere cat’s-paw for Iran. Although the Iranians did indeed offer them some support, this was a distinct misreading of the relationship between Sanaa and Tehran. At the very least, Iranian aid was dwarfed by the billions of dollars in weaponry Washington provided to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in those years.

In reality, the Houthis are homegrown Yemeni nationalists, having even attracted some Sunni tribes into their coalition. Still, their current leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, has clearly been influenced by aspects of Iran’s political radicalism and chants “death to America” and “death to Israel” just the way Iran’s clerical leader Ali Khamenei does. Like the regime in Iran, the Houthi government has no respect for domestic human rights or dissent. Although there is no command line from Tehran to Sanaa, the Houthis do loosely form part of Iran’s “alliance of resistance” against Israel and the U.S. However, it’s not clear that Iran, closely allied with Russia and China and covertly exporting its U.S.-sanctioned petroleum to China, ever wanted international shipping costs to double, thanks to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, something which hurts all three of those countries.

Both the Saudis and the Emiratis saw the Houthis as a mere cat’s-paw for Iran. This was a distinct misreading of the relationship between Sanaa and Tehran.

Despite the Houthi appeal to religious identity, it’s also mainly a movement of Arab nationalists, which helps to explain its deep sympathy for the Sunni Palestinians as fellow Arabs. In an interview at the beginning of June, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi condemned Israel for its genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza and its targeting of the West Bank and Palestinian East Jerusalem. He similarly denounced Washington as an imperial partner of Israel and an enabler of its crimes, as well as a hypocrite in theoretically promoting respect for the rule of law, while dismissing or even threatening international courts and supporting crackdowns at American colleges and universities when their students protested Israeli policies. He also praised the resistance of the vaguely allied forces of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraq’s Shiite militias. In the process, he vowed that however intense American (and British) air attacks on Yemen became, he and his movement would never back down from their support of the Palestinian people.

At the moment, the situation in the Red Sea remains militarily muted, but it has the potential to become one of the most dangerous in the world, rivaling those in Ukraine and Taiwan. In the meantime, it remains a drag on the global economy, while helping to contribute to stubborn inflation and supply-chain problems.

Significant Houthi damage to a U.S. naval vessel at any point in the future could plunge Washington into warlike acts that might risk direct conflict with Iran. President Biden could, of course, lower the temperature by moving far more strongly to end Israel’s total war on Gaza, an intolerable affront to norms of international humanitarian law that only strengthens the vigilantism of the Houthis and their like. While the ongoing Israeli assault should be ended to prevent further death and looming mass starvation in Gaza, it should also be ended to forestall yet another ruinous American war in the Middle East.

Secret Service killed suspected shooter at Trump rally, according to law enforcement

As updates pour in following a violent attack against former President Donald Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday evening — in which the side of his head was grazed, leaving him bloody but "fine," per those at the scene — several outlets have indicated that the suspected shooter has been killed by U.S. Secret Service agents.

The news of the suspect's shooting comes via an update from The Washington Post, having obtained the intel from area law enforcement. The shooter was armed with an AR-style rifle, sources said.

Two people briefed on the matter used as sources by The New York Times say that at least one spectator at the rally was also killed during the event. New York Magazine is reporting that the suspect shooter responsible for both the death of the spectator, as well as the injuries caused to Trump, had been firing from a nearby rooftop.

"I’m grateful to hear that he’s safe and doing well," President Biden said in a statement, responding to the news of Trump's injuries. "I’m praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information. Jill and I are grateful to the Secret Service for getting him to safety. There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it."

 

Trump injured but “safe” after Pennsylvania shooting

Donald Trump was reportedly injured in a shooting incident and was rushed offstage by Secret Service agents during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday evening. The Secret Service has said that Trump is "safe" and the ex-president's campaign says he is receiving medical treatment. Whether Trump was actually struck by a bullet remains unclear, with some reports suggesting he may have been struck by glass fragments from the teleprompter before him.

Butler County District Attorney Richard Goldinger has said two people were killed in the incident. One of them is believed to be the shooter and the other was reportedly a person in the audience.

According to CNN, pool reporters present at the rally heard "a series of loud explosions or loud bangs” before Trump ducked, or perhaps fell to the stage. According to the New York Times, the loud noises came from the bleachers to Trump's left, and visible smoke was seen from that area. Secret Service agents then "tackled" Trump, helping him up after a brief pause and then rushing him into a vehicle. News photographs taken on the scene show blood on the former president's face, suggesting that his ear was grazed or struck.

Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a social media post that the ex-president was “fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility.” The New York Times reported that a medical helicopter had taken off from the area, possibly heading toward Pittsburgh.

CNN reported that Trump "was yelling back to the crowd and raising his fist" before being led away. Law enforcement officials began to cordon off the area with crime-scene tape while rally attendees were shepherded away, the Times reported.

President Biden was reportedly briefed on the situation shortly after leaving church services near his vacation home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. Numerous politicians and elected officials of both parties, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, along with world leaders from several other nations, have posted messages of support and sympathy on social media.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated.

Celebrities mourn the loss of Richard Simmons, dead at 76

The latest in a string of celebrity deaths that have occurred this week — including Shelley Duvall and Dr. Ruth Westheimer — the sad news of the death of fitness guru Richard Simmons began to circulate on Saturday afternoon. 

With very little information available as of now, what has been confirmed is that only one day after celebrating his 76th birthday on Friday, Simmons' housekeeper made a call to 911 after discovering him unresponsive in his home. According to ABC News, he appears to have died of natural causes, and no foul play is suspected 

Seconds after the announcement of his death was made, fans and fellow celebrities began to flood social media with remembrances of the reclusive personality, whose life story was picked up for a biopic by Pauly Shore, albeit against Simmons' wishes.

"Richard Simmons preached exercise, diet and most of all kindness," writes journalist Richard Roeper in a post to X. "He positively impacted thousands and thousands of lives. I’m one of the hundreds and hundreds of TV people who basked in his energy and readily accepted those crazy hugs. Rest well."

"I am completely devastated at the loss of @theweightsaint … we’ve done so many shows together, shared so many laughs & hugs, and I considered him a dear friend who changed so many lives over the years," writes Sally Jessy Raphael

"My heart is broken with the loss of this super special human. May he RIP," writes Ricki Lake.

On Friday, Simmons himself posted a message to his official X account, writing, "Thank you…I never got so many messages about my birthday in my life! I am sitting here writing emails. Have a most beautiful rest of your Friday. 
Love, Richard."

 

Trump taps “fake elector” to present him with official nomination

At the Republican National Convention, the GOP plans to dig its heels into election fraud.

Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald, who participated in a scheme to send fake electors to Washington D.C. to subvert the will of Nevada voters, will present Donald Trump with his nomination at the convention in Milwaukee next week.

McDonald, whose home was raided by the FBI in 2022, was charged in 2023 with tampering with and submitting falsified official documents, though a judge dismissed the case and ordered prosecutors to re-file in a different venue last month.

McDonald has chaired the Nevada Republican Party since 2012, and has repeatedly called the results of the 2020 election into question. His role at the convention stunned social media users, including one Biden campaign official.

“WOW. Donald Trump is going to be presented the nomination by the architect of NV's scheme to steal the election — the same lies that inspired a mob to attack the United States Capitol to overthrow an election,” campaign spokesperson Ammar Moussa said in a post to X.

Trump, who has promised to pardon all January 6th rioters, faces indictments and investigations into federal and numerous state plots to overturn the results of the race, which he lost to President Joe Biden.

McDonald, who started an official position with the Trump campaign last week as a senior advisor, previously changed the rules of Nevada’s primary process to shield Trump from direct competition with his then-opponents, earning him goodwill with the former president. 

On the appointment, McDonald emphasized his relationship with Trump and promised to fight for the campaign.

“This is something that is personal for me,” McDonald told Nevada newspaper the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “I know the man personally. It’s not just a title, it’s a badge of honor to be able to be in this position, to be here for him and the Trump campaign.”

“I had no interest in trashing him”: James Patterson on why he needed to tell Tiger Woods’ story

"I just wanted to tell the story and let people figure out."

When the "story" in question is recapping the entire life and career of an athlete as illustrious — and scrutinized — as professional golfer Tiger Woods, the stakes are considerably high. 

If anyone's up to the task, it's James Patterson.

"He's an important figure in history."

"Tiger, Tiger," the uber-prolific best-selling author's latest book (July 15, Little Brown and Company), strays from his thriller-heavy fiction portfolio. It's a biography born out of Patterson's general enjoyment of golf — he's already penned a fiction series centered on a burgeoning pro golfer — and the shared knowledge that Woods as a major figure.

Second only to the legendary "Golden Bear" Jack Niklaus in his Masters Tournament victories (Woods has five Green Jackets to Niklaus' six), Woods from a young age was considered to be a golfing prodigy. His parents, Earl and Kultida Woods, were immensely supportive of their son's talent and ambitions, even taking out a second mortgage on their home so that a teenaged Tiger Woods was eligible to play in the then-nascent American Junior Golf Association (AJGA), where he could compete amongst top junior golfers and gain exposure to college recruiting scouts.

"Tiger, Tiger" delves deeply into Woods' family, presenting a candid portrait of their unique dynamic and diverse background. Woods' multiethnic identity — Earl was half Black, a quarter Native American and a quarter Chinese, while Kultida is half Thai, a quarter white and a quarter Chinese — has been a focal point of the athlete's career and his life more broadly, and as Patterson elucidates, sometimes a point of contention. "Tiger, Tiger" notes how though his mother, Tida, calls him the “Universal Child” who can “hold everyone together,” she also expressed frustration about how the media often construed him as explicitly Black. Woods, who coined the self-referential term "Cablinasian" to describe his mixed heritage, drew public ire in 1997 when he told Oprah that he shared in that same frustration. 

In the book, Patterson also doesn't shy away from addressing Woods' personal woes — namely, his bouts of infidelity that led to the 2010 divorce from his ex-wife Elin Nordegren and the stark shift in Woods' public perception that lingered for some time after. But to hear it in Patterson's own words, "Let's forgive people within reason."

"I had no interest in trashing him," Patterson tells me over Zoom of Woods' past controversies. "He's had some real bumps in the road and they're in the book, but I'm not going to make judgments."

Check out the full interview with Patterson, in which he explains how he told Woods' story differently, why he thinks Woods is a good dad in spite of his past scandals, and the "big problem" of book censorship. 

The following interview has been edited for length and clarity. 

I'm 26, and I've grown up around your books my whole life.

Oh, so what? Stop bragging. I don't care how old you are.

(Laughs) Your books have been in my mom and dad's curio cabinet since I was a kid. I've read several of your thrillers but I've actually never read anything of yours about sports. What in particular drew you to want to write a biography about Tiger Woods other than his fame and talent? He's been the subject of plenty of biographies already.

Other than his fame or talent? Come on, that covers too much ground. I tell stories and I think in general most of the people who write about him — they're not storytellers. They put a lot of facts down where they editorialize, and what I wanted to do was just tell story after story after story that kind of captures — not necessarily for sports fans but for everybody because I think he's an important figure in history. That's just because of his golf but also because of the trajectory of his life — from being on "The Mike Douglas Show" at five and predicting that he would beat [Jack] Nicklaus and Tom Watson before he was 21 to the fact that even though he lists himself as Asian, he's talked about as Black. And that was obviously a big deal for his father too. Earl really was interested in him making some real inroads into golf and also into white-dominated sports.

So I just think he's a major figure. I think this is a book for a lot of people who aren't necessarily golfers, who don't care about golfers but I would like to hear his story and want to hear it as a storyteller would tell it, not as a sports writer. There's a lot of editorializing these days on the front pages of newspapers which I don't really approve of. I don't think they should be editorializing on the front page. I think on the front page, just lay out the story as best you know with the facts. And same thing with sports writers. They always want to editorialize and show us what they are. I just wanted to tell the story and let people figure out. They'll do their own, you know, how do they feel about him, how do they feel about us human beings. I had no interest in trashing him. He's had some real bumps in the road, and they're in the book, but I'm not going to make judgments.

"I think Tiger's a really smart person."

In fact, I think it's interesting in terms of who he is, how those stories, how his life is a big part of what happened. Like what happened with his wife. If you think about his life, he was always shielded from kind of — he was like, "Go golf, be great at golf, and don't worry about the other stuff." And when he grew up and he was a stutterer and he was nearsighted and then when he went to Stanford, they called him Urkel. He was a nerd, you know, and he was kind of out of it. And I think that when he fell in love with this very beautiful, I think quite nice person, I don't think he was ready for it. I don't think he knew what was going on. I don't know if he even dated much. There was very little that I've ever read or heard about with him in terms of, you know, so I don't think he was at all prepared for it. That doesn't excuse him for running around and whatever, but you understand it a little better.

The level of attention to detail in the book is incredibly noteworthy. You include conversations and observations that span decades of Tiger's life. And in specific regard to his ex-wife, you even include, for example, a text message that Tiger sent to one of his alleged mistresses. And Elin sends a lure text to the woman after seeing it. How do you approach conducting research for a biography like this and how that might differ from writing?

Yeah, they're everything I can get. I have some researchers. My general thing about research is, if it's about Hawaii, I'll go and do that myself. If it's a crack house in the Bronx, I might have somebody else go do it. So this is a combination. A lot of this stuff I kind of knew. I followed him up to a point. I knew where to look for some of it. My editor, Denise Roy, was really involved as well. So she found a lot of things. And we just put it all together and then try to turn it into a story. But I think if you go through the whole story, even like the crash in California, if you look at his history of the operations and the fact that he was in pain for a long time, you understand — and I don't know for sure that that had to do with the crash, but I suspect that it did. Whatever the heck he was taking — and I don't know if he was overdoing it necessarily, but I just think it makes a more complete story. And once again, I'm not going to excuse him for either one of those things, but I like context.

I didn't want to go in this thing to trash him or turn him into a hero. I think he's a really interesting character. I think he's an important person for a lot of our lives. I think he's had some importance in American history and he is a spectacular golfer as well.

The effect of his parents was extreme with Tiger. And I think mostly good. Everybody has their own theories about how you should bring up kids. But I think it was a loving environment. I think his dad recognized that he had unbelievable talent early. And I think up to a point he left it up to Tiger, and Tiger chose to really go with the talent. Right. But I don't think his father pushed, pushed, pushed him. And interestingly, I think his mother in some ways had more of an effect on the way he golfed because her thing was, "Crush them! If you're up nine strokes going into the four, I want you to win it with 15 strokes ahead."

Tiger Woods with his parents Kultida and Earl WoodsTiger Woods with his parents Kultida and Earl Woods at the Johnnie Walker Classic at Blue Canyon Golf Club, Thailand. (David Cannon/ALLSPORT/GEtty Images)I wanted to turn really briefly to a conversation Tiger had with his mom that you include toward the end of the book. It almost threads together her relationship with him as a kid and then her relationship with him as an adult, specifically after the cheating scandal and after the accident. Right before part six, it says that when Tiger was young, Tida would warn him, "You'll never ruin my reputation as a parent because I'll beat you."

Right. And so that's kind of just a little humor there. 

But then she ends up defending him so fiercely in the face of this media frenzy that comes about after all this scandal unravels when public perception of him is not great. How do you feel about the way Tiger was portrayed after all this happened? Was it fair?

If it's fair, I don't know. I tried to be as fair as I could be. I had an interview with an English newspaper earlier today and they said they find it interesting over there because their style is if somebody gets big, they want to cut them down. And this, the reporter felt that Americans didn't really do that that much, American press. And I said, to an extent, I don't think they do. I think they give Tiger a little bit of space — I mean, they could be harsher. And they are. But, you know, look — it's the world we live in. You've got X number of people and . . . you can go online and you can anonymously throw whatever you want to have out there. And it's in the drinking water now so everybody does it. I wouldn't say I'm a super great, great, great Christian anymore, but I always have that thing about like I'm like, "Let's forgive people within reason." I think he's been a good dad in spite of all this stuff. And one of the characters that I hadn't really read almost anything about was Sam [Woods' daughter]. And the notion that when he asked her to give the speech when he went into the Hall of Fame, she said, "I inducted you in the Dad Hall of Fame a long time ago." And that's nice. And I think he's close to Charlie [Woods' son] as well. And then she would make fun of him saying, well, "How important can you be if you go to Comic Con dressed as Batman?" You know what I mean? And that's good stuff.

There's another scene that I love in terms of Tiger and Sam. He always had trouble sleeping. I think he's always had some anxiety problems and stuff like that. And so he frequently would get up if she was crying as a baby. But what he would do — I don't know if you remember this — but he would go in and he would do leg presses with her on his legs until she would fall asleep. 

I do remember that!

And that's interesting to me. But I think the notion that he really wanted to be a good dad, even though he obviously screwed up as a husband . . . I think somehow he's maintained the dad thing to within reason because the kids both seem to be very close to him. I'm not exactly sure what the dynamic there is, and I would suspect that a lot of that comes from his own relationship with his parents who — whatever people are always judging about, well, "I wouldn't have done it that way." Look, you bring up your kids, and they're always going to find something that you did.

They go like, "Oh, you know what you did to me when I was 12?"

"No."

"Well, I'll never forget it."

And that's always a piece of the puzzle. But I think his parents did well by him. And if I brought up a kid and they went on to become the best golfer in the world and a good dad, I'd be saying, "Yeah, OK. Well, you know, he's not perfect. I'm not perfect, but I'm cool with it."  That's just where I come from. And part of the storytelling thing is a combination of trying to be truthful and then having some compassion when it's appropriate. 

Right. And I feel like you're able to convey this story about a golfer in such a way that speaks to your ability to write compelling thrillers. It's structured in a way that really lent to that style that you typically tend to engage in. 

It's a story, story, story. When I was running J. Walter Thompson, I wasn't a great public speaker. And I remember going out and I did a thing for the New York Times and there were five writers and I followed this woman and she was fricking hilarious. She was hilarious. She just told story after story after story. And I read from the book and it was awful. And I learned that lesson — just tell stories, even if you're giving a speech, tell stories. They want to be entertained. They're not there to listen to you, "Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah." Yeah, whatever. That's where it came from.

What was the most surprising thing you learned about Tiger? I wasn't sure how much you spoke to him throughout this process.

"The direction we're going in is awful, and hideous, and destructive."

I didn't speak to him at all. Never spoke to him. I've only been in a room with him once and it's kind of interesting. My wife and I played in a — my wife by the way, she's the big shot, a four-time all-American swimmer. But we played in a FedEx thing, the pro-gas kind of thing or amateur pro whatever. And afterward, there was a cocktail thing and they were celebrating his caddy who had just gotten into the Caddy Hall of Fame. It was a dark room and Sue and I were sitting near the back and I noticed coming in the back — Tiger came in late and he just stood in the back by himself. And I couldn't stop watching him, and he was laughing his ass off about his caddy. And you could just feel the closeness that he had with the caddy and just that human thing was, was very nice. To watch him when he was unguarded and not worried about — little did he know he was being observed. But it was nice. And once again, you felt a little bit like you kind of got a little peek at who he was. And that's one of the things that I try to do with the book to really give people a peek or a lot of peeks actually at kind of who he is.

I think one of those really important peeks has to do with his identity. Tiger's ethnic background has been a focal point of his career as a professional golfer, but also more broadly.

Not for him so much. At least in his own way he expresses it. Yeah. You know, the fact that he's always said that he's Asian and in terms of his father being kind of 50-50 and his mother essentially being Asian American.

How did you go about deciding what to include about Tiger's identity? What felt the most pertinent to you?

Enough so that you get a feeling for it. I mean his father obviously clearly wanted him to make more noise about — because I think his father felt what it meant to be perceived as Black in the military, perceived as Black when you go to golf. And I think it puts a chip on your shoulder — his father's shoulder. Tiger doesn't seem to have that same chip on his shoulder. And I don't know how he really feels in his heart of heart . . .  I think he probably does feel Asian and I think he probably feels this is not, hasn't been a huge thing in his life, or he's great at compartmentalizing and just kind of being like, "OK, fine. That is what it is. I'm not going to worry about it."

I have a thing in terms of driving me through life up to a point, which is I try not to worry too much about things that I can't do anything about. It's like, things happen. There was a quote today — [James] Carville. It was a thing in The Times — that editorial Carville did. It was an interesting thing about what he thinks the Democrats should do now. And at the end of it, he quotes — he doesn't know whether it's Churchill or somebody else — but something to the effect of, "Never waste a good crisis." Something like that. And I don't know. I think Tiger's a really smart person, and I think he's figured some stuff out about the way he needs to navigate his way through life. And I don't know if he's still figuring out how to deal with being with another human being, a partner — for whatever reason, who knows why that happens.

In 2014, you spoke with Salon's Chief Content Officer, Erin Keane, about encouraging younger generations to read. The two of you chatted about doing so by using professional athletes as conduits, both from a promotional perspective and as a subject matter perspective. I was wondering how you see Tiger Woods and "Tiger, Tiger" fitting into that mission.

I think it's a good story for kids. I mean, you get to a certain point and you can read anything. Yeah. And that point could be when you're 10 and it could take longer. But I think it's one of those adult books that kids can definitely read. There's nothing in there that kids aren't like — OK he had affairs or whatever he had. The kids — whatever. They know. I think you know, once again, I did not expect a lot of kids to read it, but probably the kids that will read it are kids who are very sports-oriented. Actually, what I would always try to do with kids is get them just good stories. Even this thing of like, "Well, you're a boy and you like baseball — you should read a lot of baseball books." I don't know. There are some good baseball books and a lot of bad ones. And I guess if you're obsessed with it, you don't care. And if you're learning how to be a better reader, that's OK too.

Tiger Woods; Charlie Woods; Sam WoodsTiger Woods, Charlie Woods and Sam Woods of the United States during the final round of the PNC Championship at The Ritz-Carlton Golf Club on December 17, 2023 in Orlando, Florida. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)I read in a GQ interview that you did in 2023 that your high level of productivity — because obviously calling you prolific almost feels like an understatement —

It's an insult, actually. 

You mentioned your productivity was owing to your daily routine, which typically includes playing golf. And I'm wondering what is your background in the sport and what intrigues you about it, say, more than baseball or football or some other sport.

I have no background. As a kid — I'll give you my sports reel. I'm 5'11, I could dunk in high school, and I have nine holes-in-one. Sue, my wife's, is six [holes in one.]

That's a great resume between the two of you.

And she's really irritating. At a certain point, she had four and I had three. This is a true story. And so on Feb. 6 of that year, I had another one. And she's very competitive. So she said, "I don't like it, but I can live with it." Two days later, we were out playing together. I had another hole-in-one. This is two hole-in-one in three days. We're standing on the tee. Does Sue give me a big hug? No. Does she say, "Nice shot, honey!" No. She looks at me and very appropriately says, "You've got to be s****ing me." So that's Augusta, and we both enjoy it.

When I was a kid, I was a good student — you know, pretty well-rounded. But if I had to study or if I was reading a bunch of stuff, I would always go out every once in a while and just shoot baskets in the backyard. For 15 minutes or whatever. And that would clear my brain. Still does. It just clears my brain. Everything's gone. No deadlines, no anything. And that's the way it works for the two of us. And Sue and I, mainly we'll go out for like nine holes, which would take us like an hour and 15. There's a course that we play; they literally will let us go out at six in the morning if we want to. We go bang the ball. Nobody's in front of us. Nobody's in back of us. We're done in an hour.

This is the college English major in me wanting to ask this question, but I was curious — did you draw inspiration, for the book's title from the William Blake poem, "Tyger, Tyger?"

I just stole it. I mean, God! (laughs

One of the opening scenes in the book is when Tiger wins his fifth Masters Tournament in 2019 and the crowd chants, "Ti-ger, Ti-ger!" 

"The Thomas Berryman Number," my first book. Thomas McGuane, who was one of my favorite writers back then — a little older than me. When I was writing my first novel, I sent a note out to three novelists that I admired. Larry Woiwode is one of them. You probably haven't read him. I don't know if you've read McGuane either. He publishes now a lot of short stories in the New Yorker. He's — I don't know what he is. He's old. And he wrote back from Montana and he just said, "Dear Jim, Write a good book. Your friend, Thomas."

So that's where the Thomas comes from. The Thomas Berryman of my first book and Berryman was the poet [John Berryman.] So yeah. So I've always been a little literary snob.

In 2023, Your "Maximum Ride" sci-fi YA series was removed from Florida's Martin County school district board.

Among others.

You were understandably rankled by this.

And I don't rankle easily. I'll tell you that.

Given the "crisis" you alluded to before — the fraught political state of the country — what concerns do you have regarding future literary censorship? 

I don't think it's a huge deal right now, honestly, but it's irritating right now. And it doesn't even have to do with book banning. It just has to do with in general, the direction we're going in is awful and hideous and destructive. And people love to get up there like, "Oh, you know . . ." So my book got banned. Who cares? It's not the end of the world. I mean, there are more serious ones, obviously — Toni Morrison, etc. Shouldn't do that. The thing of it is, I try to talk to the people who are on the fence. I'll try to talk their language, and one of the things I said about the book banning is, "I don't want the people, some stranger to tell the people in my family what they should and shouldn't read." And the reason I say it that way is most of these people are libertarian-oriented and you want them going, "Yeah, goddammit! Right. Why should some stranger tell us what we —" . . . and that's the really, really bad thing about this.

For example, in Martin County, one woman went in and complained about X number of books, including "Maximum Ride," which she had never read. And they pulled them . . . that's crazy. The other thing about parents is — and this is always what drives the drums or whatever — is, "I should be able to be careful with my kids read." Yes, you should do that. Absolutely. And if your seven-year-old comes home with "The Hunger Games," you should be able to say, "Honey, let's talk about this because I'm not sure if you're ready for 'The Hunger Games.' You know, it's kind of violent."

(Imitating child) "Yeah. No, but it's about hunger and . . . "

So once again, just turning it on people. Yes, you should be concerned with what your kid — more about what they're watching on their telephones and stuff. Take care of your kids. Absolutely. But don't take care of my kids. Take care of your own kids.

Does the censorship issue inform your approach to new writing?

Don't sit there writing and say, "Jim thinks there isn't a big book banning problem." There is a big problem.

Agreed. So does it affect how you approach your new projects, for example, or how you think about them? 

Trying to do stuff that'll get banned on purpose? Yes! 

I'm glad that the biography will be out in the world. I didn't know that much about Tiger, so I'm glad to have had the opportunity to speak to you about him.

I think that's the thing that's useful about the book. I think it is very readable and I think it's good for people to know. It'd be silly to go through life and not have a clue about that guy, 'cause he's just one of those people. More important than George Clooney. Even though Clooney got to do an editorial at The Times. It was a stupid editorial too. That's why it was just like, why? It was bad. It was just a bad piece. 

Elon Musk officially weighs in on race, tossing cash at Trump PAC

Elon Musk has donated to a Trump campaign-affiliated PAC, tossing cash behind a candidate for the first time in the race, per Bloomberg.

People familiar with the donation didn’t disclose the amount, but according to Bloomberg, they described it as a “sizeable sum.”

Musk, with a net worth of far over $200 billion, has dove headfirst into far-right conspiracy and fascist-adjacent ideology in recent years, pushing strains of the Great Replacement Theory and other anti-immigrant and antisemitic rhetoric on X, formerly Twitter, the platform that he purchased in 2022.

The Trump campaign, which has closed a fundraising gap versus Joe Biden’s re-election bid largely thanks to the ultra-wealthy pouring cash in, is also seeing support from a network of shadowy PACs like America PAC, which have softer rules on disclosures for donations from the wealthy.

A July 15 deadline will force America PAC to release a list of donors, though disclosure frequency and amounts are not required.

Trump, who previously blasted Musk as a "bulls**t artist," has softened his tune on the Tesla executive in recent months, hoping to court a campaign contribution.

As Trump mulls Musk for an advisory role in a future administration, the X executive and far-right commentator hopes to maintain his ties with the federal government, which provides lucrative contracts for his SpaceX company.

Musk, who made a March visit to Mar-a-Lago, then proclaiming that he didn’t expect to finance either candidate, has been a vocal critic of the Biden administration and its plans to raise taxes on billionaires. Meanwhile, Democratic ultrawealthy donors have all but staged a coup to remove Biden from the party’s ticket.

Abortion restrictions harm mental health, with low-income women hardest hit

People living in states that enacted tighter abortion restrictions in the wake of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision, which returned regulation of abortion access to state legislatures, are more likely to report elevated levels of mental distress. This is particularly true for people of lower socioeconomic means.

These are the key takeaways of our July 2024 paper published in Science Advances.

We mined two years’ worth of data from the National Household Pulse Survey and analyzed 21 survey waves, each with more than 60,000 respondents. We were able to trace how newly introduced gestational restrictions and abortion bans affected mental health outcomes such as anxiety, worry, disinterest and depression on a state-by-state basis. The increase in self-reported mental health issues amounts to an approximate 3% relative rise over the pre-Dobbs baseline of 18% to 26% – a troubling increase by any measure.

Why it matters

Two years after the Dobbs decision, the country is still coming to grips with its societal repercussions. Some states have tightened restrictions on abortion, while others have taken measures to preserve access, leading thousands of women to travel across state lines each month to obtain these services. As of July 2024, 21 states have passed abortion bans or enacted more restrictive gestational limits.

The decision to overturn a half-century of legal precedent has deeply affected women’s reproductive care and is altering the legal landscape that governs people’s decisions on whether and when to have children. These decisions are often stressful, as they involve navigating complex emotional, social and legal landscapes.

Accordingly, these sudden changes in access to abortion services may carry significant mental health consequences. Breaking down our results by demographic, we found consistent effects across birth-assigned gender, sexual orientation, age, marital status and race. However, we also found striking differences dependent on respondents’ income level and education.

Put plainly, abortion restrictions had a greater negative impact on the mental health of respondents of lesser economic means and the less educated. Those with more wealth and education, by contrast, were largely insulated.

As more states consider adopting restrictions of their own, with possible federal restrictions on abortion not off the table, it helps to have a more holistic sense of what that might mean for Americans.

In addition, our study underscores the need to think about women’s health across various subgroups of the population, especially as it pertains to sex assigned at birth and socioeconomic class.

This family lives in Florida, where abortion is banned after six weeks.

What still isn’t known

We do not know exactly why socioeconomic class played such a pivotal role in our study, but we can speculate.

One possible explanation has to do with anticipatory stress about the financial burdens associated with carrying an unwanted pregnancy to term, or traveling out of state for an abortion. Financial concerns of this sort are likely more impactful on the mental health of Americans who are least able to bear these costs.

An alternative theory is that poorer women constitute a disproportionate percentage of the patient base receiving abortion care. According to a 2014 report from the Guttmacher Institute, an advocacy group, 75% of abortion patients qualified as low-income.

What other research is being done

Our work builds on findings from The Turnaway Study, which observed a marked decline in the short-term mental health of women who were denied an abortion because their pregnancy just exceeded the gestational limit. Our unique contribution resides in assessing the effect of abortion restrictions on mental health more broadly.

It’s important to realize that this paper is part of a growing body of work that shows the issues with mental health in the post-Dobbs era. Some studies have looked exclusively at women while others have begun to compare younger men and women. Whereas those works found effects were concentrated primarily among women of childbearing age, our results imply that a broader swath of the population has been affected.The Conversation

Taxes on sugary beverages are working. Should they be placed on ultra-processed foods?

Back in January, researchers found that raising the prices of sugary sodas, coffees, teas and energy drinks and fruit drinks led to a decrease in the purchases of those drinks. Specifically, increasing the prices of said beverages by an average of 31% reduced consumer purchases by a third.     

The study, published in JAMA Health Forum, looked at per-ounce tax plans by ZIP code in Boulder, Colorado; Oakland, California; Philadelphia; Seattle; and San Francisco. Nine US jurisdictions have implemented some form of consumer tax on sugar-sweetened beverages. The drinks are taxed in various ways, including excise taxes, sales taxes and import/export taxes. Excise taxes, the most common type of tax implemented on sugary beverages, are placed on distributors, who then pass the cost of the tax — usually as a flat rate per ounce — on to consumers. Some US cities have implemented sales taxes on sugary beverages at checkout, typically at a rate of 1 to 2%. As for import/export taxes, those taxes are applied to specific ingredients in the drink, like sugar, before they are processed.

“For every 1% increase in price, we found a 1% decrease in purchases of these products,” study author Scott Kaplan, an assistant professor of economics at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, told CNN. “The decrease in consumer purchases occurred almost immediately after the taxes were put in place and stayed that way over the next three years of the study.”

Kaplan explained that the study “only looked at sugar-sweetened beverages that are sold in retail or convenience stores. Mass merchandise stores, supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores made up our sample.” Compared to the other cities included in the study, Philadelphia had the highest success rate at reducing consumer consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, according to statistics from prior studies. That’s because Philadelphia’s taxes are more “broadly encompassing, including both regular and artificially sugar-sweetened beverages,” Kaplan explained. 

The study’s findings pointed to a viable yet stricter solution that could lower the risks of several chronic diseases associated with consuming sugar-sweetened beverages, including heart disease, cancer, diabetes, obesity and stroke. Sugary and artificially sweetened beverages have also been found to increase the risk of early mortality, which is why placing taxes — especially on a larger scale, potentially a federal one — is so crucial.

Taxes on sugary beverages are also proving to be effective in the UK. A study published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health found that the amount of sugar consumed by children from soft drinks halved three years after the country applied its “sugar tax” to soft drinks in 2016. Researchers looked at responses to the annual UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey between 2008 and 2019. 7,999 of those responses were from adults, while 7,656 were from children. Researchers found that the daily sugar intake for children fell by about 4.8 grams in the year after the tax was introduced. For adults, it was 10.9 grams.

Taxes on sugary beverages have been so successful that experts say implementing taxes on other high-sugar foods and drinks is now a “no-brainer.” Eddie Crouch, the chair of the British Dental Association, told The Guardian that the sugar tax was delivering “tangible results.”

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“Extending it to the likes of cereals is a no-brainer for any government that cares about prevention,” he added. “This needn’t add to the cost of living. Where voluntary action on reformulation has failed, the levy forces the food industry to do the right thing.”

Dr. Nina Rogers, the lead author of the study and part of the University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, echoed similar sentiments, telling the outlet, “The new UK government might want to consider extending the tax to other (currently exempt) drinks which have a high sugar content, or even to some foods.”

Despite the ongoing calls for further taxation on unhealthy foods, the UK and the US have yet to tax the biggest threat to consumer health: ultra-processed foods (UPFs). Within the US, 73% of the food on grocery store shelves is ultra-processed. UPFs are commercially manufactured food products that have undergone significant processing — so much so, that they no longer resemble their raw ingredients. UPFs are typically high in refined sugars, salt, artificial colors, emulsifiers and sweeteners. Breakfast cereals, packaged snacks, soft drinks, candy and flavored yogurts are just a few common examples.


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Carlos Monteiro, the Brazilian epidemiologist who coined the term ultra-processed food, remains one of the biggest voices urging for stricter regulations on UPFs sales. Ahead of the annual International Congress on Obesity, Monteiro called for tobacco-style warnings to be placed on UPFs. In a statement to The Guardian, he added that UPFs should also be banned from schools and health facilities and taxed.

Last year, Colombia became one of the first nations in the world to tax UPFs through its new “junk food law.” The tax was set to 10% and has risen to 15% this year. It is slated to reach 20% in 2025.

If or when a UPF tax will be introduced in the US remains a mystery. Research into UPFs is still ongoing as more studies try to better understand how such foods impact human health. Companies that manufacture UPFs also claim that taxing such products will only hurt their businesses and consumers in the long run.

In the case of sugary beverages, many states have already passed bills to prevent local taxation of such products. Four states — Arizona, California, Michigan, and Washington — have enacted laws preempting local taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages. Many states have considered implementing similar legislation.

Dr. Ruth, sex therapist and ambassador to loneliness, dies at age 96

Dr. Ruth Westheimer, the world-famous sex therapist most commonly known as simply Dr. Ruth, died Friday at her home in Manhattan, according to her publicist Pierre Lehu. 

Having lived 96 extremely full years devoting herself to fixing the sexual hangups of strangers, all while smiling and laughing in a way that infused a comfortable casualness into an otherwise awkward subject, the cause of her death has yet to be revealed, but she for sure had a nice, long run.

Westheimer's work became public-facing when she was in her 50s, fielding calls on the WYNY radio show “Sexually Speaking.” From the '80s, when her popularity was at its peak, up until she died, Dr. Ruth appeared on more TV and radio shows than you can count, wrote and contributed to dozens of books, and even popped up in the occasional movie cameo, such as in the French comedy "One Woman or Two."

In 2023, Westheimer received one of her last of many huge achievements when New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed her as the state’s honorary ambassador to loneliness.

On Saturday, Hochul gave a touching tribute to Dr. Ruth on X, writing, "Dr. Ruth Westheimer led an extraordinary life. She was brave, funny, candid and brilliant. As New York’s first-ever Ambassador to Loneliness, we worked together to spotlight a mental health crisis impacting our seniors. We will miss her greatly. May her memory be a blessing."

Trump’s Facebook and Instagram safety guardrails are coming off

Donald Trump’s Facebook and Instagram accounts are no longer restricted, Meta told Axios on Friday.

Less than four years after inciting a social media-fueled attack on American democracy that left five dead, Trump will be allowed to use as normal the social media platforms that once concluded that the “risks of allowing the president to continue to use our service” were “simply too great.”

Trump faced additional safety measures on his accounts on the two platforms, including measures to restrict advertisements or suspend an account amid violations of platform rules. These measures were already a step down from those imposed directly following January 6th, with a two-year ban expiring last January.

The measures, meant to prevent Trump from inciting widespread violence or civil unrest after his posts urged rioters to continue their attempts to block the certification of the election, were removed for the sake of fairness. 

"In assessing our responsibility to allow political expression, we believe that the American people should be able to hear from the nominees for president on the same basis," Meta president of global affairs Nick Clegg said in a statement to Axios. "These penalties were a response to extreme and extraordinary circumstances, and have not had to be deployed,"

Meta ended the safety policy, arguing that a small policy violation could result in his account being suspended ahead of the election, blocking him from reaching voters. 

Trump, who has scantly used the Meta-owned platforms, and refused to return to Twitter/X after Elon Musk restored his account access, is much more active on his own social media platform, Truth Social.

YouTube and X rolled back restrictions on his accounts earlier, with the former also reversing a ban on dangerous election misinformation, including claims that the 2020 race was stolen.

“Our realities are being warped”: Travis lead singer Fran Healy on tackling big themes on new album

Fresh on the heels of their 20th anniversary reissue of "The Invisible Band," Scottish indie rock group Travis is back for more. Their new album, titled "L.A. Times," marks one of the band’s finest efforts since "The Man Who," the multiplatinum mega-success that established their international fame.

Listeners will revel in the album’s candid assessment of contemporary life’s ceaseless change, as well as the perils and promises of an encroaching middle age. As lead singer and songwriter Fran Healy points out, “'L.A. Times' is our most personal album since 'The Man Who.' There was a lot of big stuff to write about back then, the tectonic plates had shifted in my life. I was 22 when I was writing those songs. They were my therapy. Over 20 years later and the plates have shifted again. There’s a lot to talk about.” 

There’s a lot to talk about, indeed. In the album’s lead single “Gaslight,” Travis fashions a high-energy musical palette to address the inherent paranoia of our postmodern age, an era in which deception and social destabilization rule the day. Healy makes this point resoundingly clear, singing “always on my mind until you shine” as the song’s constant refrain. 

"I read a few weeks ago that gaslighting was the most web searched word in the world,” Healy observed. “We are living in a time where our realities are being warped by bosses, leaders, friends, teachers and politicians. It really is everywhere. Gaslighters want to control you. They tell you things which undermine your confidence in yourself and make you question reality, and it makes you feel like you’re going crazy.”

The band’s tight sound might well be attributed to their longevity, having sported the same lineup for more than 30 years, with Healy taking the microphone, Andy Dunlop on guitar, Dougie Payne on bass, and Neil Primrose on drums. Tony Hoffer — who previously worked the boards for such acts as Beck and Phoenix — deserves special mention for the LP’s top-flight production. 

At its heart, "L.A. Times" is a smart album that finds Travis exploring new vistas of sound at a time in their lives and careers when other bands might be understandably resting on their laurels. 

Biden’s donor dilemma: Democrats brace for the big money dump

Folks, we’ve been here before. When Ronald Reagan bombed in his first debate against Walter Mondale in 1984, it prompted members of the press, some of the GOP stalwart supporters, members of the donor class and even some of Reagan’s Hollywood friends to question whether Reagan (seeking a second term) could handle the rigors of the presidency at the advanced age of 73.

In the next debate two weeks later when Reagan was asked about his age, he responded with a quip that even prompted Mondale to smile. “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Biden’s detractors may be growing, but other than saying “Dump Biden,” they are still in the minority and there is no clear choice for who would replace him or how that would even work.

President Joe Biden, eight years older than Reagan was at the time of that 1984 debate, and just two weeks after his “stupid mistake” (his words, not mine) of a performance in his first debate with Donald Trump, faced reporters down Thursday night in a rare press conference. Afterward, a few in the punditry world declared him a genius, some declared him competent while more than half declared him non compos mentis and said he should be sipping his dinner through a straw while a nurse makes sure he shuffles back to bed. 

Almost everyone acted as if we’d never seen Biden commit a gaffe before. Many of us conveniently forgot his blunders are nowhere near as bad as what Donald Trump says before he has his daily “hamberder.” 

The news conference came at the end of a NATO conference. It was delayed by an hour and came after Biden spent most of the day entertaining and dealing with the leaders of other NATO nations as they discussed serious matters of international concern, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine, Russian and Chinese hegemony and climate problems. It looked like the President, if he had cognitive problems, was set up to fail. He wanted to talk about NATO, and began with a statement about it, but, of course, the first question was about Biden’s age and his fitness for office. While Biden did not have a quip that matched Ronald Reagan’s he did cogently defend his presidency and his candidacy against convicted felon Donald Trump. 

“I think I’m the most qualified. I beat him once and I will beat him again.”

Biden said there is still a long way to go in the campaign – which he noted usually doesn’t start in earnest until after Labor Day. “We’ve got more work to do and more to finish. Name me a world leader who wouldn’t want to trade places with us,” Biden said. Then a short time later he referred to his Vice President as “Vice President Trump” and the race was on. 

Biden’s opening gaffe was all the fuel Trump needed, all the fuel Biden detractors needed, and all the fuel the internet needed to continue burning Biden at the stake. That comment stood out as the worst gaffe of the evening from a president who has admittedly made many during his career. But so has Trump, and at least Biden never told us to inject bleach or rambled on about sharks, electrocutions, and airplanes during the Revolutionary War.

“You’re never going to make everyone happy,” Biden said during a reply to a reporter’s question about neurological tests. If you concentrated on Biden’s gaffe, you missed a textbook display of his knowledge of the nuance of foreign relations, the immigration problem and the economy. 

Biden’s passion for the “indispensable nation” in the world was on full display. He allayed fears about his Vice President – saying that Kamala Harris is ready to be president if something were to happen to him. “I wouldn’t have picked her if I didn’t think she was qualified to do the job,” he said. He notably dodged a question about whether or not Harris could beat Trump.

When he was questioned about changing his habits and perhaps going to bed earlier, he grinned and said that wasn’t what he said at all. He spoke about “pacing himself” and making better use of his time. He noted that after his “stupid mistake” in the debate, he’s doubled down on “doing the job”.  He took a shot at Trump at the same time, “My schedule is full bore,” he said, while noting that “Trump is Riding around in a golf cart filling out his score card.”

For nearly an hour, with more than 24 million people watching, according to Nielsen data, Biden fielded questions. 

He stuck to his roots, evoking the memory of his father as he often does while doubling down on being a union supporter and a spokesman for the middle class. “When the middle class does well, we all do well. The rich has to start paying their taxes,” he said.

Biden took Republicans to task for failing to pass a comprehensive bipartisan immigration bill because Trump wanted to be able to beat Biden over the head and run on the issue. He made three key points – first that inflation is down and prices have fallen; secondly, that border encounters are down over 50 percent – lower today than when Trump left office because of executive action he took; finally, he continues to work to get a ceasefire solution in Gaza. 

Toward the end of his time on stage, Biden offered a reflection on his age that may have flown under the radar to many observers and was probably as cutting as Reagan’s response to the age question, but far more poetic and subtle. “The thing that age does is give you a little bit of wisdom if you listen.”

Who was listening to that?

As Biden left, he fielded one last question from a reporter who called him out for mistakenly referring to his Vice President as “Vice President Trump” at the beginning of the press conference. It had already gone viral and Trump was cackling wildly about it. Biden turned and smiled and then said with a smirk, “Listen to him,” perhaps implying that Trump is far worse than Biden.

At the end of the day, whatever he said, the cries for Biden to leave the race will not end or even slow down. Biden maintained that he is the most qualified to win and the best qualified to govern. Even his detractors in the Democratic Party agree with the latter, but continue to worry about the former.

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“The Democratic Convention is going to be like a circus of cannibals,” one donor told me after the press conference. “I think he did well, but the train has already pulled away from the station and Biden probably won’t be on it.”

Mixed metaphors aside, Anthony Scaramucci said Thursday, prior to the debate that he will support whoever the Democrats nominate. “I know for a fact Donald Trump is a threat to democracy,” he said echoing the words Biden said later. “But what about those who’ve come out publicly against Biden? Would I like another candidate? Yes, but I think those who’ve spoken out against Biden are going to have a hard time handling their hypocrisy if they suddenly jump back in with Biden.”

Don’t expect George Clooney at the White House anytime soon, I guess is what The Mooch is saying. “I wonder if any of us have stopped to consider all of this infighting is only benefitting Donald Trump,” a Congressional staffer asked Friday. Hmmmm…you think?

At one point during the news conference, Biden was asked, “How can you guarantee no more bad nights in the future?” That is what his detractors demand, and that’s not a guarantee that anyone alive can give. In fact, it was one of the silliest questions asked of the president during the news conference.

But, it appears that with $220 million in the bank, and nearly all of the delegates needed to win, Biden remains the only viable choice the Democrats have. He is the leader of his party. He is the incumbent president. He said, “Am I getting the job done? That’s the only question you have to ask.” He then answered it himself and pointed to a list of achievements he’s racked up in his first term in office. The response? Reportedly top Democratic donors have frozen $90 million in contributions as long as Biden remains on the ticket.

So far, Biden continues to throw cold water on any attempts to unseat him – even showing a bit of hubris and arrogance when he said his pledged delegates were free to vote their conscience at the Chicago convention in July.

He said, “I’m not in this for my legacy. I’m in it to finish the job I’ve started.”

Friday night at Renaissance High School in Detroit, Michigan, Biden appeared before thousands of his faithful supporters who screamed “Don’t you quit." Biden responded with, “I am running and we're gonna win. . .I am the nominee of the Democratic Party and the only Democrat who has beaten Donald Trump ever. I know him. Donald Trump is a loser.”

He walked off the stage to the tune of Tom Petty singing “I won’t back down.”

That still doesn’t mean Biden won’t eventually leave the race – though he’s making it increasingly harder to do so. In fact, it means he may indeed leave the race only if he is convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that someone else is able to beat Trump and finish the job he started.

But who would that be?

Biden’s detractors may be growing, but other than saying “Dump Biden,” they are still in the minority and there is no clear choice for who would replace him or how that would even work. It is assumed it would be Kamala Harris, but there are no guarantees – and plenty of conflicting opinions.

And that my friends leads to the unavoidable conclusion that the Democratic convention will be a historic and chaotic event that could just as easily guarantee a Trump victory as a Trump defeat. Remember how the 1980 Democratic convention turned out? Jimmy Carter said he’d whip Ted Kennedy’s ass. it got ugly. It got nasty. Carter won – but the Democrats were so divided that Carter lost to Ronald Reagan which began the slow slide into authoritarianism we are witnessing today.

“All I can say is I don’t want any of my Democratic colleagues telling me how crazy Trump is if he gets back into office because of this,” another staffer told me who works for a member of Congress who has called for Biden to step down. “My best hope is that this criticism spurs the rest of us into getting involved and quit sitting on the sidelines. Maybe it will help Biden.”

Despite whatever Biden said, how he said it, or as well as he performed Thursday night, the criticism against Biden probably won’t abate unless those Democrats who’ve publicly called for Biden’s withdrawal from the race turn around, do a 180 and embrace him going forward. That’s as likely to happen as Donald Trump being Joe Biden’s Vice President — at least today. 

Legal scholars: SCOTUS gave Trump a “big hammer” — and he may use it to undo NY conviction

The Manhattan justice weighing the fate of Donald Trump's guilty conviction in New York could potentially throw out the verdict if he decides jurors should never have heard certain evidence about the president's conduct as president — or the judge could uphold the verdict by deciding that evidence would have made little difference, according to legal experts.  

In doing so, New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan may become one of the first judges to decide exactly how a landmark Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling could limit what evidence jurors can hear concerning a president's official conduct.

Jurors in the Manhattan criminal trial in May found Trump guilty of 34 charges of falsifying business records – including invoices, accounting ledger entries and checks – as part of a scheme to disguise $130,000 in hush money as a legal expense and keep potentially damaging stories about alleged extramarital encounters from voters. Each of the 34 count carries up to four years in prison — though legal experts said Trump would likely serve less than four years given his previous lack of a criminal record.

On Wednesday, Trump’s lawyers filed a motion arguing that jurors should never had heard testimony from former White House personnel, along with other pieces of evidence. The motion cites the Supreme Court's pivot presidential immunity ruling, and asks Merchan to vacate the jury’s verdict and dismiss Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment. 

Prosecutors have until July 24 to file a response. Merchan has delayed sentencing until September — "if," he said, "such is still necessary."

“In the Trump immunity case, the Supreme Court gave Trump a big hammer, a stick, a really powerful weapon to go smash up the cases that have been brought against him,” said College of Charleston professor Claire Wofford, who teaches constitutional law and American government. "And that's exactly what he's done in this most recent filing."

William Brennan, an attorney who represented Trump in his second U.S. Senate impeachment trial and in a Trump payroll tax case before Judge Merchan, said the judge could grant a new trial where jurors couldn’t hear certain evidence — such as testimony from witnesses about Trump’s conduct as president.

“Judge Merchan could say: ‘Look, based on this decision by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Trump case, that type of testimony should not come in, and the only fair resolution is to give the defendant another shot at a trial,” Brennan said. “So that could absolutely happen.”

Or, he said, the judge could let the verdict stand and decide that all the evidence at issue concerned Trump's unprotected private conduct — or that the evidence's inclusion was a harmless error that would have had a minimal impact on the verdict.

SCOTUS' BROAD DEFINITION OF OFFICIAL CONDUCT

The Supreme Court’s landmark 6-3 ruling said that presidents have "absolute immunity from criminal prosecution" for acts that fall within the "exercise of his core constitutional powers he took when in office." 

Presidents, according to the ruling, have "at least presumptive" immunity for other official acts, and no immunity for unofficial acts.

Five of the nine justices also agreed that presidents “cannot be indicted based on conduct for which they are immune from prosecution.”

That means prosecutors aren't allowed to use evidence that concerns a president's protected official conduct.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett disagreed with that part of the ruling — saying it would "hamstring" prosecution of bribery by excluding evidence of an official act connected to a bribe.

“To make sense of charges alleging a quid pro quo, the jury must be allowed to hear about both the quid and the quo, even if the quo, standing alone, could not be a basis for the President’s criminal liability," Barrett said in her concurrence.

But Chief Justice John Roberts — who wrote the majority opinion — said for a bribery prosecution, a prosecutor could point to public record to show the president performed the official act and admit evidence of what the president allegedly gained.

The opinion bars prosecutors from using testimony or private records of the President or his advisers "probing" official conduct.

Roberts said allowing that evidence would invite the jury to "second-guess" the president's motivations for official acts — which he argues would "'seriously cripple'" a president's exercise of official duties.

Trump's motion argues that point: "The purpose of the Presidential immunity doctrine is to ensure that Presidents can perform their extremely demanding functions without fear of a future criminal prosecution."

But Hofstra University law school professor James Sample called the majority opinion unprecedented and disastrous for prosecutors probing abuse of power.

"The majority’s prohibition on using conduct immune from prosecution as evidence, even when, as is clearly the case with Trump’s hush-money payments, the underlying conduct is unofficial, makes it nigh on impossible to mount the evidence needed to carry the prosecutorial burden even as to categorically non-immune conduct," Sample said.

Roberts tasked the lower court weighing Trump's indictment for allegedly scheming to overturn the results of the 2020 election with weighing whether his conduct was official or unofficial — while also making sure the indictment holds up with "sufficient allegations" without protected conduct.

Wofford said Judge Merchan in Manhattan now has a similar job.

“The key issue about presidential immunity is going to be what's official and what's not official,” Wofford said. “And they didn't give a very clear standard.”

The ruling offers a broad definition of official conduct, saying: "the immunity we have recognized extends to the 'outer perimeter' of the President’s official responsibilities, covering actions so long as they are 'not manifestly or palpably beyond [his] authority.'"

Wofford said that gives Trump's team a "lot of leeway."

"For the prosecution, clearly their best argument is going to be to try to argue that these are not official acts," Wofford said.

The limited guidance means that courts will be hashing out tests and rules for presidential immunity for years to come — in decisions that could wind up back at the Supreme Court, Wofford said.

"There's a lot of room here for Judge Merchan to formulate his own rule, his own legal test, his own sense of how you can balance official versus unofficial conduct," Wofford said.

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TRUMP'S FIGHT AGAINST PROSECUTION'S EVIDENCE

Trump's lawyers say prosecutors “tainted” the grand jury proceedings and the trial by including testimony from his former White House communications director Hope Hicks about her conversations with Trump and former special assistant Madeleine Westerhout’s observations about Trump’s Oval Office conduct.

“Much of the unconstitutional official-acts evidence concerned actions taken pursuant to ‘core’ Executive power for which ‘absolute’ immunity applies,” Trump’s motion reads. “These transgressions resulted in the type of deeply prejudicial error that strikes at the core of the government’s function and cannot be addressed through harmless-error analysis.”

Wofford said Trump is referring to the "harmless error standard," which refers to errors that would have "no reasonable possibility of affecting the verdict."

"It's a really high bar for him to make that argument, but it's not out of the realm of possibility," Wofford said.

The former president's lawyers are focusing on evidence concerning Trump’s calls in the White House Situation Room, his conversations about the pardon power, his official tweets, his conversations with Hicks and his use of Air Force One and Marine One.

Prosecutors used such evidence to portray Trump as a micro-manager so worried that stories of alleged extramarital sex would decimate his 2016 campaign that he drove a hush money scheme that he ultimately concealed using falsified records — some of which he signed himself.

Westerhout described Trump's hands-on role in day-to-day matters — from dictating tweets, to personally signing checks, to avoiding email, to sometimes signing documents without reviewing them first.

Hicks testified about the fallout of the "Access Hollywood" leak and frantic efforts to minimize damage. She also said it would have been "out of character" for ex-Trump fixer and prosecution witness Michael Cohen to have decided all by himself to pay off adult film star and director Stormy Daniels.

Professor Sample said Judge Merchan has found himself in an "unenviable position."

"He must evaluate, on an entirely ex post basis, whether the evidence, which was properly admitted under the laws as they have existed since the nation’s founding, is now suddenly inadmissible, in a case centered on the cover-up of pre-presidency conduct, merely because the Supreme Court has effectively created a monarchy in a nation that fought a revolution against the very notion that a king could do no wrong," Sample said.

Trump's lawyers say he has absolute immunity for Westerhout's description of Trump's conduct on Air Force One, Marine One and the Situation Room. And his lawyers said he has at least presumptive immunity for the parts of Westerhout's testimony detailing her work with Trump and her observations about how he exercised his executive authority. 

"None of these details regarding President Trump’s Administration involved actions that were 'manifestly or palpably beyond his authority,' which is the boundary of that perimeter," reads the Trump motion.

Trump's lawyers continued: "The prospect of biased local prosecutors using official acts testimony regarding a President’s personal preferences during his or her administration, and his or her communications with confidential assistants, presents an unacceptable risk of 'undue pressures or distortions' to a President’s work on behalf of the American people."

Wofford said Trump's argument about Westerhout's testimony "makes sense" under the Supreme Court's ruling.

"Clearly he has to be able to talk to his aides without fear that everything he says is going to be subject to prosecution," Wofford said.

She said: "Even if the prosecution were to argue: Well, you need to look at what they talked about — to me, Trump has a reasonable argument that how he likes to conduct, how he likes to do his job, how he likes to take phone calls, that he doesn't like to do emails, that he likes to move documents in various ways onto Air Force One — to me, that's reasonably within the sphere of an official duty."

PROSECUTION COULD FIGHT ABSOLUTE IMMUNITY CLAIMS
But Wofford said she thinks Trump’s lawyers are “stretching” by arguing that he would have absolute immunity for Hicks’ testimony or Trump’s tweets. 

“The core executive functions that [Chief Justice John Roberts] talked about the opinion are things that are really closely tied to the text of the Constitution, like the pardon power or the removal power,” Wofford said.

Trump's motion argues Hicks' testimony was "categorically inadmissible" because the Supreme Court opinion prohibits prosecutors from using testimony from advisers "probing" protected conduct.

Trump's lawyers called Hicks a "key subordinate" on whom Trump relied. 

They said Trump's discussions with Hicks in 2018 about the hush money scandal "fit comfortably" within Trump's "outer-perimeter Presidential authority."

But Wofford said it's unclear whether Hopes was indeed an adviser.

Wofford said Merchan could put all presidential communications with staff in the official conduct bucket — or he could look at the substance of the conversations.

"It doesn't necessitate that just because he was talking to her, everything he talked to her about is covered as official conduct," Wofford said. "If the question is: 'Are the President's communications with a staff member about a private matter involving sex with a porn star covered under official conduct?' — then you have a much more persuasive argument that what Hope Hicks testified to is not covered under presidential immunity."

Wofford added: "I mean, if Trump's sex life is not private, and neither is how the media is responding to a sex life, I don't know what does constitute private."

The Supreme Court ruling offers little insight into exactly how to define private conduct.

Referring to Trump’s D.C. case, the justices said Trump “'appeared to concede” that some of the alleged conduct involved “‘private actors’” who helped submit “‘fraudulent slaters of presidential electors to obstruct the certification proceeding.’”

Trump argued that asking the Republican National Committee chair "'to gather electors'” counted as his official conduct of contacting state officials about federal election integrity.

The government called that "campaign conduct."

In her concurrence, Barrett said of the alleged fake electors scheme: “In my view, the conduct is private and therefore not entitled to protection.”

Still, the other five justices didn’t explicitly label the conduct private and gave the task to lower courts, writing: “Unlike Trump’s alleged interactions with the Justice Department, this alleged conduct cannot be neatly categorized as falling within a particular Presidential function.”

The Supreme Court's opinion said that the president's duty to "'take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed'" include enforcing federal election laws. 

Trump's lawyers also claim the Supreme Court's ruling gives the former president absolute immunity for his tweets — including tweets apparently referencing Cohen and Daniels.

But the Supreme Court's opinion didn't set a hard and fast rule for weighing a president's communications with the public.

"There may, however, be contexts in which the President speaks in an unofficial capacity — perhaps as a candidate for office or party leader." reads the opinion. "To the extent that may be the case, objective analysis of 'content, form, and context' will necessarily inform the inquiry."

Wofford said that could provide an opportunity for prosecutors — though not a slam dunk.

"The court basically said most tweets from a president are official acts, but there is a little bit of wiggle room — the court didn't say all of them," Wofford said. "There's an opening there for the prosecution to argue that even though it was an official White House Twitter account and Trump had an official White House person helping him write the tweets, that the content of the tweets themselves render them unofficial."

Trump's lawyers are also arguing prosecutors shouldn't be able to defend their use of Trump's tweets by pointing to witnesses — Daniels and Cohen — who have offered "implausible opinions" about why Trump made the posts.

The Supreme Court opinion said "courts may not inquire into the President’s motives" when parsing unofficial versus official conduct.

"Nor may courts deem an action unofficial merely because it allegedly violates a generally applicable law," the opinion says. "Otherwise, Presidents would be subject to trial on 'every allegation that an action was unlawful,”'depriving immunity of its intended effect."

Trump's lawyers say allowing prosecutors to use Daniels' and Cohen's testimony on Trump's motivations behind the tweets would amount to "an impermissible 'intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch' and the 'enfeebling of the Presidency.'"

And his lawyers argue that the tweets were "objectively" directed at the American people — not Cohen or Daniels.

PRESUMPTIVE IMMUNITY AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TRUMP

Wofford said Trump’s lawyers have the advantage when it comes to arguing that Trump's non-core conduct was official and thus covered by “really high” presumptive immunity. 

“In that respect, they have a really good argument, because the Supreme Court used really sweeping language when it talked about immunity for official acts,” Wofford said.


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The ruling makes clear that it's up to the government to rebut the presumption of immunity.

But Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said the majority opinion lacks guidance on when or how the government could do so.

The opinion — referring to Trump's D.C. case — tasked the lower court with deciding "whether a prosecution involving Trump’s alleged attempts to influence the Vice President’s oversight of the certification proceeding would pose any dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch."

Wofford said that sentence created a definition of presumptive presidential immunity — weighing whether the conduct would intrude on executive authority and functions — that poses a high bar for prosecutors. 

Wofford pointed out the opinion's use of the phrase "any danger." 

"How can you argue something's not going to have any effect on that?" she said. "That's a really high bar for the court to jump over."

Trump's motion makes that point too: "Where presumptive immunity applies, prosecutors bear the burden of rebutting the presumption by showing that a criminal prosecution involving evidence of the official act would pose no dangers of intrusion on the Executive Branch."

Trump's motion argues prosecutors waived their right to rebut the presumption by rushing to trial over Trump's pre-trial objections — when he also argued he had immunity and that a state court couldn't prosecute him for the offenses.

"The harm resulting from DANY’s actions is irreparable because it will cause future Presidents to be 'unduly cautious in the discharge of his official duties' and to fear '[v]ulnerability to the burden of a trial and to the inevitable danger of its outcome,'" reads the motion.

Trump's lawyers also say the former president should have at least presumptive immunity for his mandatory federal ethics disclosure form.

"By using this document in a criminal prosecution, DANY invited the type of 'second-guessing' of President Trump’s official acts that 'would threaten the independence [and] effectiveness of the Executive,'" reads the motion.

And Trump's lawyers say the president's public statements responding to congressional and Special Counsel investigations were part of his "outer-perimeter" official conduct — meaning he should have  presumptive immunity.  

Are the polls even reliable? Experts examine election polling predictions from 1980 to 2024

During the first debate of the 2024 election cycle, President Biden infamously flubbed his words, trailed off mid-sentence, stared off into space and otherwise acted every bit like a mentally incompetent 81-year-old man. With Biden's fellow Democrats determined to save democracy from an election-denying Republican — former President Trump — who was recently empowered by the Supreme Court to be a dictator, their experts are now turning to one place for information about the future: Polls

"The fact that [Biden's] behind in all of them, albeit by a small amount, reaffirm that it isn’t a complete toss up"

Yet can they be trusted?

If the polls are to be believed, Trump had held an almost uninterrupted lead over Biden for more than nine months before the debate; in its aftermath, both of the highest quality polls (CNN/SSRS and Wall Street Journal, New York Times/Siena College) show Trump ahead by six points among likely voters and with solid leads in the states key to winning the Electoral College. Nevertheless, in the same New York Times article where he issues a glum forecast for Biden based on polls, chief political analyst Nate Cohn acknowledges the polls from the 2020 election were "terrible," producing "the worst year for the polls in a competitive presidential race since 1980." One could fairly speculate that, since those polls had been skewed in Biden's favor and the pollsters no doubt compensated by increasing their share of Republicans, it is possible the polls are now inaccurately skewed to Trump.

Then again, the polls could also be wrong for myriad other reasons: Perhaps they under sample or oversample disengaged voters, or undecided voters, or some other under-appreciated bloc. Maybe — as statistician Nate Silver incorporates into his mathematical model predicting election outcomes — analysts should focus less on day-to-day survey results and more on how that data intersects with so-called "fundamentals," or variables "such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency." (Unlike Cohn, who is quite bullish for Trump, Silver's model currently only gives Trump a 51-to-49 chance of winning.)

The bottom line is that, even though all sides rely on polls to understand political reality, there is no surefire way to know that that reality is actually showing up correctly in those polls. To understand why that is the case and how ordinary voters can best inform themselves, Salon reached out to J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. Salon asked Coleman about the accuracy of polls going back to the 1980 election, when President Jimmy Carter lost in an upset to former California governor Ronald Reagan in an event that transformed political history. Have they gotten any more reliable in the subsequent 44 years?

"Maybe not the most satisfying answer, but it is a bit of a mixed bag," Coleman said, referring Salon to an archive of Gallup polls going back to 1936. "In 1980, for instance, Carter was still quite competitive with Reagan, and was generally leading — Reagan was helped by a strong performance in the only debate of that year and sort of surged late." While the polls accurately showed Reagan with a comfortable lead for the duration of the 1984 election cycle "in 1988, George H. W. Bush was famously down 54%-37%" as of July (the same month which 36 years later shows Biden behind Trump by a much smaller margin) "but picked up steam later in the ​campaign." By the time of the 2020 election, things had not gotten much better. "According to FiveThirtyEight's aggregates, Biden had a roughly 51%-41% lead over Trump from May 2020 onwards. Biden got 51% of the vote, but Trump beat expectations, ultimately getting 47%. Another case that I often cite is 2008: it really wasn't until September (when the stock market crashed) that Obama really started to pull away from McCain—with that, Bush's disapproval numbers were going to be hard for any Republican to overcome."

If there is any consistent theme from recent political history, it is that third-party candidates like this year's Robert Kennedy Jr. always walk home disappointed. It is not simply that America has not elected a third-party candidate as president since Abraham Lincoln was elected as the first Republican president in 1860; more significantly, the people who flirt with third-party candidates in polls tend to return to one of the two major parties by Election Day.

"In 1980 and 1992, John Anderson and Ross Perot, respectively, were competitive with, or even leading, the major party nominees," Coleman said. "But in the end, neither actually carried any states."


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"Because these voters aren't actively switching over to Trump, the goal of the Biden campaign will be to bring these voters home."

David Barker, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies and a professor of government at American University, reminded Salon that in the 1992 election, Perot's third-party candidacy was performing so well that Democratic nominee Bill Clinton — then Arkansas governor but, after the election was over, America's future president — was placing third. This helps illustrate why he has a healthy skepticism of polls.

"Traditionally, the polls are irrelevant until after both conventions," Barker said. "Typically, the polls one wants to pay the most attention to are the ones that come out right after Labor Day." While this may augur well for Biden, Barker added that one reason polls have little predictive power until the national conventions is that voters are usually unfamiliar with the two nominees… which is not a factor in 2024.

"In this case, we essentially have two incumbents, both of whose name recognition is 100%, who have been in the public eye forever and everyone knows them," Barker said. "So in this case, the polls may be more like those we would traditionally see in September."

Even so, Barker views Biden as merely an underdog at this point in the election cycle, not as a doomed candidate.

"They are all well within the margin of error," Barker said. "So it could go either way. The fact that he’s behind in all of them, albeit by a small amount, reaffirm that it isn’t a complete toss up (otherwise, in some he’d be up and in some he’d be down), but it’s impossible to predict turnout or how the third party candidates will ultimately do, etc., so really anything could still happen." Biden's biggest problem is not so much that he is behind in the polls but that, because of the Electoral College, the bar for him to win is higher than for a Republican.

"One problem for Biden, though, is that he needs to win the popular vote by a fairly significant amount to win the electoral college—as we’ve seen," Barker said. "He won the popular vote by like 4 or 4.5 points last time, and still nearly lost the [Electoral College]. So if we take at face value his standing right now as being about 2-3 points behind, he really has about 6 or 7 points to make up. That’s quite a bit, and we know that he isn’t going to change the dynamic with some future dynamite debate performance or something."

Coleman also told Salon that Biden "to say the least has his work cut out for him." Although Biden is still "in the game" in the states that he absolutely must win like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he is farther behind in other states that he flipped in 2020 like Arizona and Georgia. These dismal showings in the Electoral College are reflected in Biden's weaknesses with key Democratic subgroups.

"Even before the 2024 election began in earnest, Biden was showing some weakness with core Democratic subgroups, mainly younger voters and minorities," Coleman said. "However, in some surveys, these groups have been 'parked' in the 'Undecided' or third-party categories. So because these voters aren't actively switching over to Trump, the goal of the Biden campaign will be to bring these voters home." Elaborating on this point, Coleman said that "the ground game, and general campaign operations, of either side could matter. For instance, Trump usually tells his voters that they should wait until Election Day to vote (because, you know, early voting = fraud!), while Democrats are, generally, more likely to try to run up the score in the early/absentee vote."

Barker also fingered turnout as "really the thing" that, along with economic indicators like employment and inflation, will determine who wins the election.

"Jobs need to not nosedive and inflation needs to continue to abate (a nice drop in gas prices would be really helpful to him, as would an interest rate cut by the Fed)," Barker said. "The Gaza situation really needs to get resolved too. Otherwise, Biden can’t make any more significant gaffes on TV (a tall order), Trump needs to make a couple (which he surely will)."

Read more from Matthew Rozsa on American history:

National abortion ban “hidden in plain sight” in revised RNC agenda, legal experts say

Earlier this week, the Republican Party released its 16-page “Make America Great Again” policy platform ahead of its national convention. As many news outlets pointed out, it did not explicitly call for a national abortion ban. Instead, it said that the party supports states establishing fetal personhood through the constitution’s 14th Amendment

“We believe that the 14th Amendment to the constitution of the United States guarantees that no person can be denied life or liberty without due process, and that the states are, therefore, free to pass laws protecting those rights,” the agenda read. Some media outlets reported this as if the GOP had “softened” its stance on abortion or that it “backed away” from an abortion ban.

But legal experts tell Salon this isn’t the case. Instead, the party is still advocating for a national abortion ban — they are trying to conceal it using different language. 

"The key to their true agenda here is the suggestion that the 14th Amendment of the federal constitution somehow empowers states to ban abortion."

“This is nothing more than a national abortion ban — not to mention a ban on birth control and IVF — hidden in plain sight,” Alexa Kolbi-Molinas, deputy director of the ACLU Reproductive Freedom Project, told Salon in a phone interview. “They're using language suggesting that they will lead the issue to the states because they know how unpopular banning abortion and other forms of reproductive health care is, and so they're trying to conceal and mislead the public.” 

The voters should avoid falling for it, she emphasized.

“The key to their true agenda here is the suggestion that the 14th Amendment of the federal constitution somehow empowers states to ban abortion,” Kolbi-Molinas said. “They are signaling that embryos and fetuses are persons under the 14th Amendment, which is simply not true. And if that were the case, if embryos and fetuses had constitutional rights under the due process clause, states would be required to ban abortion.” 


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The 14th Amendment grants citizenship to all persons "born or naturalized in the United States” and provides citizens with “equal protection under the laws.” If fetuses and embryos were included in this, states that have already enshrined abortion rights into their state constitutions, such as California, would still have to pass abortion bans. This is because the federal constitution, and federal law generally, take precedence over state laws, and even state constitutions.

“Under this platform, states would be forced to ban abortion, and state laws protecting abortion, including those who have been passed recently by ballot through direct democracy, would be challenged and overturned,” Kolbi-Molinas said. “And it’s not just abortion, giving constitutional rights to embryos and fetuses that override the rights of the pregnant person — which is what they would seek to do here with the 14th Amendment — that also leads to bans on birth control, on IVF and on other forms of reproductive health care.”

David S. Cohen, a professor of law at Drexel Kline's School of Law, told Salon he agreed. 

"If that were the case, if embryos and fetuses had constitutional rights under the due process clause, states would be required to ban abortion."

“It would be unconstitutional for a state to allow abortion because now you are denying that person the equal protection of the law and due process of the law,” Cohen said. “The idea that the 14th Amendment protects a fetus or embryo, or fertilized egg would be effectively a national abortion ban — and that's a constitutional abortion ban, not just the statutory one.”

A statutory abortion ban can be overruled by a majority of Congress. If it's a constitutional requirement to ban abortion, then the only thing that can reverse it is to add an amendment to the Constitution or to get a different set of justices on the Supreme Court. How would a Republican administration be able to apply the 14th Amendment to embryos and fetuses though? 

“It would come from a court; it would come from an interpretation of the constitution,” he said. “It certainly wouldn't be an originalist interpretation, because certainly the founding framers, and whether it's you know, the original constitution of the 14th Amendment, knew nothing about embryology and fertilization of eggs and sperm.”

But anti-abortion advocates are pushing this interpretation nonetheless, Cohen said. 

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“I think it's their holy grail,” he said, adding that it wouldn’t just be abortion being banned. IVF, he said, would be threatened or “probably banned.” Contraception would be “suspect” and “possibly murder.” Miscarriages and stillbirths would be investigated. Anything that might be considered to be the possibility of a fertilized egg reaching its demise could be a “crime scene.” 

“To think that a political party that has been so focused on banning abortion as broadly as possible for decades is actually changing its mission is foolish,” Cohen said. “They may be trying to mask their position given the electoral politics, but they aren't changing anything.”

“They’ve been hammering me”: Biden goes on the offensive in an effort to strengthen his campaign

President Biden, who has increasingly framed a push for his ouster as one from elites and the ultra-rich, tried to throw a death blow to charges for him to exit the race during a Friday Detroit, Michigan campaign event. 

In an impassioned speech, championing a record on labor rights and promising higher taxes on billionaires, Biden took shots at Trump’s past, and the candidate’s own gaffes.

The president jabbed at Trump’s shark fixation, before accusing the press of creating a double standard on its coverage of his age.

“You may have noticed that since the debate, the press — and they’re good guys and women up there — they’ve been hammering me,” Biden said. “I guess they don’t remember that Trump called Nancy Pelosi Nikki Haley. Donald, no more free passes.”

Having vigorously resisted a two-week-long push from top Democratic strategists, donors, and pundits to knock him off the ticket, Biden shot past addressing his critics and went on the offensive against his opponent.

“We’re gonna shine a spotlight on Donald Trump. We’re gonna do what the press, so far, hasn’t,” Biden said, citing Trump’s criminal conviction and inspiring the crowd to cheer “lock him up.”

Throughout his reelection campaign, Biden has drawn attention to Project 2025, the far-right plan to re-shape the Federal government, and has also laid out his first 100 days of a second term, promising a restoration of Roe v. Wade and expanded voting rights, alongside Social Security and Medicare improvements financed by taxes on the wealthy.

Biden left Detroit voters, a union stronghold city, with a message of support for workers, rather than the wealthy.

“I don’t work for big oil, I don’t work for big pharma, I don’t work for the National Rifle Association, I work for you, the American people,” Biden said.