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Trump thinks he gets to be president of just the Republican states: But they’re a total mess

Donald Trump appears to be seceding from the Union, which is bizarre given his status as the president of it. Make no mistake: Trump appears to be deliberately marginalizing himself by repeatedly insisting that he’s not responsible for certain states and cities, despite technically being the president of the entire United States.

We’ve all heard him say it. On topics ranging from poverty to crime to COVID-19, Trump never hesitates to defer all the blame for whatever onto state and local Democrats rather than acknowledging that he’s supposed to be the president of those cities and states, too.

Earlier this year, for example, Trump tweeted, “The homeless situation in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and many other Democrat Party run cities throughout the Nation is a state and local problem, not a federal problem.” Trump, of course, is the president of those cities, and has been for nearly four years. Has he proposed any national solutions to the homelessness problem? Nope. He’s simply seceding himself from those cities.

On Sept. 3, Trump tweeted, “Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York has the worst record on death and China Virus. 11,000 people alone died in Nursing Homes because of his incompetence!” Trump apparently doesn’t realize he’s the president of New York as well. Bob Woodward, by the way, confirmed that Trump’s much-hyped travel restriction against China prompted tens of thousands of travelers simply to return from China to the U.S., by way of Europe, through New York’s JFK airport, sparking the massive New York infection rate early in the pandemic. Turns out, that was the president’s doing. We’ll circle back to the pandemic presently.

Meanwhile, on Monday morning, Trump tweeted the following whiny lament: “Our people have all left Drudge. He is a confused MESS, has no clue what happened.” Note the use of the phrase “our people.” Trump’s people are, technically, all Americans, but once again he appears to only give a rip about the people who support him.

Over the weekend, Trump visited Las Vegas, where he told reporters, “And by the way, every city that’s in trouble, every state. You look, Democrats, liberal Democrats — they’ve run them into the ground, every city.” Here’s our refrain again: He’s the president of all those cities and states. 

Again, Trump clearly blurted that “every state” in trouble is run by “liberal Democrats.” So let’s take a look at which states are, in real life, doing the worst. But first, to be abundantly clear about all this: Issues like education, crime and poverty are always considerably more complicated than the party affiliations of the various mayors, city councils, governors and legislatures that control those places can possibly explain. But since we’re playing Trump’s leadership-cherrypicking game, we’ll play by his rules for the sake of argument. 

  • States with the highest poverty rates: 1) Mississippi, 2) New Mexico, 3) Louisiana, 4) West Virginia and 5) Alabama. What do all those states have in common? All except New Mexico are solidly Republican and delivered their electoral votes to Trump. Three of the five are controlled by Republican governors.
  • The least educated states: 1) Mississippi, 2) West Virginia, 3) Louisiana, 4) Arkansas and 5) Alabama. All Trump states, and all but one controlled by Republican governors.
  • States with the most violent crime per 100,000 residents: 1) Alaska, 2) New Mexico, 3) Tennessee, 4) Arkansas and 5) Nevada. Three of the five are Trump states governed by Republicans.
  • States most dependent on federal handouts (the “taker” states): 1) New Mexico, 2) Kentucky, 3) Mississippi, 4) West Virginia and 5) Montana. Are you catching the pattern here? Trump carried four out of five in 2016, and three have Republican governors.

So these are mostly Trump-Republican states, and if he wants all this on his record, I’m OK with that. After all, he’s rejecting wealthier, better-educated states as “Democrat-run.” It’s also germane to note that among large cities, the two “most dangerous” cities in America per 100,000 residents are Springfield, Missouri and Spokane, Washington — each run by a Republican mayor. 

One thing is certain: whether we like it or not, Donald Trump is the president of the United States. That means all of it. Therefore he’s responsible for all of it. There’s nothing in the Constitution that says the president can disown the states and cities that hurt his feelings or make him look bad.

Perhaps Trump’s most egregious abdication of personal and presidential responsibility has been his response to the pandemic. One thing has become shockingly obvious in the last couple of days: Trump was privately aware of the deadly seriousness of COVID-19, calling it deadlier than the most “strenuous flus,” but chose instead to publicly lie about it, telling the nation that COVID was, in fact, just like the flu and that it would go away “like a miracle” when the weather got warmer. 

Seven months later, we’re nearing 200,000 American deaths and 6.2 million cases, with no end in sight.

Trump could have borrowed and rebranded, as his own, the paint-by-numbers pandemic instructions left to him by the previous administration. He could have framed the national effort with the same kind of hyper-patriotism we experienced after 9/11. But he refused to take the reins himself. Instead, he walked away, delegating the response to governors and mayors. And now he wants to blame all the bad news on the states and cities, while washing his stubby hands of all responsibility.

Trump and his disciples don’t understand, nor do they care to grasp, that a national crisis requires a national effort in response. For example, the local governments of New York City and Arlington, Virginia, both attacked by al-Qaida on 9/11, didn’t fight the war on terrorism alone. We fought, as we always do, as a nation. When imperial Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, we didn’t send Hawaii to storm the beaches of Iwo Jima. Americans from the entire nation engaged in that war. 

By the same token, when a pandemic strikes the entire nation, the entire nation has to respond in unison, otherwise there’s about as much chance of containing the virus piecemeal as there is containing piss in a hot tub. Trump and his loyalists will never understand this basic leadership dynamic.

And he’s not only blaming the states and cities, he’s actively sabotaging them, too, probably so he can blame them for everything that happens as a consequence of the sabotage. Along those lines, on April 13, Trump told Woodward that the virus was “so easily transmissible, you wouldn’t believe it.” Trump elaborated with a story about a meeting in the Oval Office in which someone sneezed, sending everyone, including Trump himself, running for the exits. Again, that was on April 13. Four days later, he tweeted, “LIBERATE MICHIGAN,” deliberately undermining Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s pandemic response by exploiting the bully pulpit to insist upon reopening the economy, while knowing how transmissible the virus was.

From there, Trump’s loyalists followed his lead, leaving responsible behavior to the rest of us while they gratuitously engaged in pool parties and biker rallies, insisting that caring for others and acting in the national interest was a trespass against their liberty. 

The childish, self-indulgent, Q-amplified irresponsibility of 30-40 percent of American voters — including their messiah in the Oval Office — is precisely why we’re still enduring a thousand deaths a day, eight months into this madness, while Canada and other allies have reduced their respective death tolls close to zero.

Why is Trump so afraid to take responsibility himself? The answer is obvious: Because he’s a coward and a shirker, vastly out of his depth, painfully outmatched and fatally incapable of handling a crisis of any magnitude, much less this one. When the going got tough, Brave Sir Donald ran away, stealing credit for the upside while blaming everyone else for the downside. The impact of his ineptitude is worsened, by the way, through his grisly fascination with stirring up chaos all around him, not unlike a malicious tween boy who shakes up an ant farm just to watch the ants freak out. Anyone who buys his “I don’t want to create a panic” nonsense is dumber than he is.

In the end, if Trump only wants to be president of the places that aren’t mean to him, if he doesn’t want to be president of the entire nation, it’s time for him to step aside and allow grownups who aren’t afraid of being responsible leaders — who aren’t afraid of being presidential — to take the wheel. The entire country, including the people who voted for him, will be better off for it.

“Trump is a mass killer”: Michael Moore slams Trump’s disastrous COVID-19 response

The COVID-19 coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, has killed more than 924,000 people worldwide — and at least 194,000 of those deaths are in the United States. The fact that the U.S. has become the COVID-19 hotspot of the world isn’t lost on liberal/progressive filmmaker and activist Michael Moore, who slammed President Donald Trump as a “mass killer” on his September 11 podcast for handling the crisis so badly.

Moore posted the podcast on the 19th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which killed almost 3000 people in the U.S. The COVID-19 pandemic, Moore stressed, has been much deadlier for Americans.

“My friends, this is murder in the extreme,” Moore told listeners. “No American other than Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his general, Robert E. Lee, has killed more Americans than Donald J. Trump.”

In defense of his coronavirus response, Trump has said that no one could have known how deadly COVID-19 would be in the U.S. But veteran journalist/author Bob Woodward — famous for his reporting on Watergate with Carl Bernstein at the Washington Post during the 1970s — reports, in his new book, “Rage,” that Trump was well-aware of the dangers that U.S. was facing when he publicly downplayed its severity. During a February 7 conversation, Trump told Woodward that COVID-19 was “more deadly” than “even your strenuous flus.”

More than 600,000 Americans were killed in the Civil War during the 1860s. Moore, discussing how much deadlier the coronavirus pandemic could become in the U.S., noted, “We’ve been told by the White House Task Force itself, this could get to 400,000 (dead) by Christmas.”

On September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda members hijacked four airplanes — crashing two of them into the World Trade Center in New York City and one into the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. A fourth plane went down in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Making a Trump/Osama bin Laden comparison, Moore noted that Trump “didn’t actually kill” any victims of COVID-19 “with his own hands” but added, “I can tell you for a fact that Osama Bin Laden did not fly a single one of those goddamn airplanes. So, he’s innocent? No. Trump is a mass killer.”

The U.S. prison system: outrageously unjust

Even a cursory review of the US prison system reveals the outrageous inhumanity to which hundreds of thousands of prisoners — especially young adults — are subjected to.

Many of them are imprisoned for non-violent crimes — sometimes for life. Some of the cases I came across are simply heart wrenching, bringing tears to my eyes. 

The over-policing of the United States, which results in the disproportionate incarceration of people of color, and the numerous flaws in the judicial system, most particularly highlighted in sentencing disparities by race and class, and habitual offender (aka three-strikes) laws, have contributed greatly to the travesty of the U.S. prison system. 

It is time for the whole country to demand extensive prison reforms and remove the stigma of the current prison system that dishonors the United States and puts it to shame.

Indeed, the state of our prison system is bewildering and most alarming. The U.S. population of over 330 million is 4.25% of the total world population, but its prison population of nearly 2.3 million people is approximately 20% of the global prison population. 

A sad world record

Indeed, the U.S. prisoner rate is 698 per 100,000 people — the highest rate in the world. If each U.S. state were its own country, no other country would rank in the top 10 countries for rates of incarceration, nor in the top 20 or 30 — the next highest is El Salvador, 33rd on the list compared to individual U.S. states.

In 2016, the Brennan Center for Justice reported that as high as 40% of prisoners should not be in prison. They are “behind bars with no compelling public safety reason.” 

There are thousands of young prisoners who are serving life sentences in the US for non-violent offenses — and without the possibility of parole. 

It is unfathomable that U.S. society is spending billions of dollars every year to sustain such pointless cruelty, to inflict needless pain on individuals, fathers and mothers, who pose no threat at all to the public.

The case of Rayvell Finch

One such excruciatingly painful case was reported on by the ACLU in 2013. Rayvell Finch was arrested in Louisiana at age 22 for trespassing. A search of his person uncovered heroin, for which its possession he was convicted of in 1997.

He was never accused of distribution, yet was sentenced to mandatory life in prison without parole under Louisiana’s habitual offender statute, as he had two prior “strikes” against him (possession of stolen property in 1993, and possession with intent to distribute crack cocaine in 1994). 

He was only 23 years old when he received a life sentence — the same amount of time he has now spent in prison for his non-violent crime.

Appellate Judge William H. Byrnes stated that the sentence was “clearly excessive, and designed to cause needless suffering.” Finch has said that being separated from his family “feel[s] like my soul has been pierced and assaulted.”

The case of Timothy Jackson

Another case that exemplifies the travesty of U.S. prisons is that of Timothy Jackson. What was the crime for which he received a mandatory sentence of life without parole? Shoplifting a $159 jacket from a department store in New Orleans — an offense which now carries a six-month sentence (down from the two-year sentence when Jackson was arrested in 1996). 

He was 36 years old at the time. Like Rayvell Finch, he was sentenced as a habitual offender. His previous three “strikes” were simple robbery when he was 17, and two simple car-burglary convictions. 

None of the crimes for which he was convicted of were violent, as noted by the Louisiana Fourth Circuit Court of Appeal, which called it “inappropriate” and “a prime example of an unjust result.”

While that same appeals court lessened his sentence initially, the Louisiana Supreme Court reinstated the full sentence, ruling that except under rare circumstances, judges could not depart from life sentences mandated by the habitual offender law.

Victims of an unjust system

I strongly feel that the system is completely and utterly unjust, and this is just one example. Both Finch and Jackson had made efforts to reform themselves in prison. 

Finch had completed substance abuse and anger management treatment, as well as literary and Christian ministry programs. 

Jackson earned his GED while imprisoned and learned woodworking, becoming skilled to a point where his creations are sold at the Angola Prison Rodeo’s Arts and Crafts Festival. 

However, due to their sentences which removed the possibility of parole, their rehabilitation will never matter — they will never be released, no matter how much they have changed and improved themselves. 

This is but one reason why the prison population remains so high. Sentencing laws are completely blind, and the judges are forced to follow them like sheep.

Black Americans suffer disproportionately

Of the total prison population, 40% of those incarcerated are Black, despite Black Americans only comprising 13% of the country’s total population. 

Drug charges are a clear example of racial disparities. According to the NAACP, “African Americans and whites use drugs at similar rates, but the imprisonment rate of African Americans for drug charges is almost 6 times that of whites.” 

The incarceration rate for Black men is five times higher than those of white men. One in three Black boys born today will likely be imprisoned at some point in their lives.

These statistics can only begin to convey the enormity of the injustice that is being compounded day after day. The time is overdue to reform the prison system that stigmatizes the United States and defies its moral standing and values.

Joe Biden’s task

Since we cannot count on the Trump administration to lift a finger, the burden will fall on the next president, who will hopefully come in the form of Joe Biden later this year. 

Once in office, he must make criminal justice reform one of his top priorities. He must undo the legacy he helped create with the 1994 crime bill, which helped fuel the increase in the prison population. 

One step would be to commit to freeing all prisoners who are incarcerated for petty crimes — especially for possession of marijuana and other small quantities of drugs that pose no danger to public safety. 

This will not only save a substantial amount of money on the costs of incarceration and courts, but it will help stem the spread of COVID 19 among the prison population.

This is the reality of mass incarceration and one of this country’s greatest shames — for if Americans really value freedom and respect human rights, they must correct this palpable and outrageous injustice.

This article is republished from The Globalist: On a daily basis, we rethink globalization and how the world really hangs together.  Thought-provoking cross-country comparisons and insights from contributors from all continents. Exploring what unites and what divides us in politics and culture. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.  And sign up for our highlights email here.

Trump accused of “negligent homicide” for gathering maskless supporters at indoor campaign rally

A public health expert at George Washington University rebuked President Donald Trump’s campaign after it argued that Trump had a right to host an estimated 25,000 people at an indoor campaign rally Sunday evening in Nevada because hundreds of thousands of Americans have taken part in racial justice protests in recent months.

After receiving harsh criticism for holding its first indoor rally since June in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, the campaign responded by saying, “If you can join tens of thousands of people protesting in the streets…or burn down small businesses in riots, you can gather peacefully under the 1st Amendment to hear from the president of the United States.”

The campaign was essentially arguing in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic that “it’s only fair that the president be allowed to kill some of his supporters by exposing them to superspreader events,” tweeted Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor at GWU and aCNN analyst.

According to public health experts, the outdoor racial justice protests that have taken place across the country have not been linked to spikes in coronavirus transmission, likely because of high levels of compliance with mask-wearing guidelines. At the March on Washington anniversary rally in August, marchers were not permitted to attend without a face mask. 

Reiner appeared on CNN Monday morning to accuse the president of “negligent homicide” at Sunday’s rally, where a majority of attendees appeared to not wear face masks.

“That’s what you’d call the actions of somebody who through their negligence causes the death of other people,” Reiner said. “We’re in a pandemic and Clark County, Nevada has a lot of virus. So with thousands of people, there’s complete certainty that there are people in that crowd, probably asymptomatic carriers of the virus, who will spread the virus.”

Clark County has one of Nevada’s highest seven-day averages for coronavirus infections, with 62 out of every 100,000 people infected. 

“If you were trying to somehow increase the amount of virus in the community, what you would do is gather thousands of people shoulder to shoulder without masks and have them scream and yell and laugh for a few hours,” Reiner said of Trump’s Nevada rally.

 

Trump’s last indoor campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, was linked to a significant surge in Covid-19 cases, according to Tulsa City-County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart.

Campaign staff at the Sunday rally in Nevada checked attendees’ temperatures and provided access to hand sanitizer, but mask-wearing was not required—in defiance of Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak’s orders. 

Sisolak has mandated that people cannot gather in groups larger than 50 and must observe public health officials’ mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines. 

The governor accused the president of being “reckless” and “selfish” by holding the event. 

“Early on in this crisis, when it came time to exhibit real leadership and make difficult decisions to protect the American people, he failed to develop a unified national response strategy,” Sisolak tweeted. “To put it bluntly: he didn’t have the guts to make tough choices—he left that to governors and the states. Now he’s decided he doesn’t have to respect our state’s laws. As usual, he doesn’t believe the rules apply to him.”

Last week, one epidemiologist raised similar alarm over the president’s rally in Freeland, Michigan, where many attendees in a crowd of 5,000 were seen without face coverings.

“This is the crap that makes grown epidemiologists cry,” said Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, a fellow at the Federation of American Scientists.

 

Defending the 2020 election against hacking: 5 questions answered

Editor’s note: Journalist Bob Woodward reports in his new book, “Rage,” that the NSA and CIA have classified evidence that the Russian intelligence services placed malware in the election registration systems of at least two Florida counties in 2016, and that the malware was sophisticated and could erase voters. This appears to confirm earlier reports. Meanwhile, Russian intelligence agents and other foreign players are already at work interfering in the 2020 presidential election. Douglas W. Jones, Associate Professor of Computer Science at the University of Iowa and coauthor of the book “Broken Ballots: Will Your Vote Count?,” describes the vulnerabilities of the U.S. election system in light of this news.

1. Though Woodward reports there was no evidence the election registration system malware had been activated, this sounds scary. Should people be worried?

Yes, we should be worried. Four years ago, Russia managed to penetrate systems in several states but there’s no evidence that they “pulled the trigger” to take advantage of their penetration. One possibility is that they simply saw no need, having successfully “hacked the electorate” by damaging Hillary Clinton’s candidacy through selective dumps of hacked documents on Wikileaks.

We know that VR Systems, a contractor that worked for several Florida counties, was hacked, and we know that there were serious problems in Durham County, North Carolina, during the 2016 election, including software glitches that caused poll workers to turn away voters during parts of Election Day. Durham county was also a VR Systems customer.

I know of no post-election investigation of the problems in Durham County that was conducted with sufficient depth to assure me that Russia was not involved. It remains possible that they did pull the trigger on that county, but it is also possible that the problems there were entirely the result of “normal incompetence.”

2. How does this change what we knew previously about Russian efforts to hack U.S. election systems?

The specific counties compromised in Florida were never officially revealed. Previous leaks indicated that Washington County was one of them. Now we know that St. Lucie was the other.

Furthermore, previous reports mostly said that the systems had been penetrated. Woodward is saying that malware was installed on these machines. I am not sure whether I should interpret his use of terms in their narrow technical sense, but there is a significant difference between penetration, as in “they got the password to your system, broke in and looked around,” and installing malware, as in “they got in and made technical changes to the operation of your system.”

The latter is far more serious because voters could have been removed from registration rolls and therefore prevented from casting ballots, and that’s what I gather Woodward is describing.

3. How have attempts to hack U.S. election systems changed since 2016?

I do not have inside knowledge of what’s going on now, but my impression is that the Russians are getting more subtle. The basic Russian tactics of four years ago were only moderately subtle. Dumping all the stolen Democratic National Committee files on Wikileaks wasn’t subtle, but some of the narrowcasting of targeted misinformation on social media was brilliant, if utterly evil. For example, using Facebook, Russian propagandists were able to target prospective voters in swing states with disinformation tailored for them.

My impression is that they’re getting better at disinformation campaigns. I think it’s safe to assume that they’re also getting better at digging into the actual machinery of elections.

4. Have efforts to defend U.S. election systems against hackers improved?

On the social media front, there has certainly been improvement. The obvious “sock puppet farms,” large numbers of fake accounts controlled by a single entity, that Russia was running on U.S. social media are far more difficult to run these days because of the way the social media companies are cracking down. What I fear is that the country is defending against the attacks of four years ago while not really knowing about the attacks of today.

In the world of actual election machinery, the U.S. has made a little progress, but COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench in the system, forcing a massive shift to postal ballots in states that permit this. That means that attacks on polling-place machinery will be generally less effective than in the past, while attacks on county election offices remain a real threat.

5. What keeps you awake at night going into the 2020 presidential election?

Oh dear. The list is long. Everything from crazies on the loony fringe of American politics shooting at each other in response to election results they don’t like, to people living in such closed media bubbles that we are effectively two different cultures living next door to each other while believing entirely different things about the world we live in.

Between those extremes, consider the possibility of results appearing to be reversed after polls have closed. If there is a demographic split between the vote-in-person crowd and the vote-by-mail crowd, election night results could go one way, while in states like Iowa, where postal ballots received six days after the election get counted if there is proof they were mailed on time, the final results could go another way.

Then, add in the possibility of hacked central tabulating software in key counties, and there’s plenty to lose sleep over.

Douglas W. Jones, Associate Professor of Computer Science, University of Iowa

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Trump can’t do the job

Is it time to vote?

Donald Trump, on tape and repeatedly, says he understood what his intelligence team was telling him about the utter widespread terror of a global pandemic and decided “to downplay” the danger.

There are 190,000 dead Americans and six million ill because he didn’t want to deal with it properly. And our economy is devastated.

What more do Americans need to know?

Ignoring the deadliness of the coronavirus is a dereliction of the basic job of being president. Trump is incompetent.

Disclosure of the Trump attitude toward hearing bad news is at the core of the new book Rage by Bob Woodward, the longtime Washington Post reporter and editor, who also released a portion of the tapes of the 18 conversations he had with Trump over four months.

There are no anonymous sources in the heart of this book, no disgruntled former employees, no enemies. It is Trump talking about being Trump.

The Trump on these tapes refuses to recognize his racism, thinks he and Kim Jong Un are blessings to the world and believes he can unleash the military in American streets without a second thought.

But it is his remarks about skipping over the public dangers of coronavirus that practically leap off the page. In January, Trump understood there was a serious problem; by March 19, when he talked to Woodward, Trump admitted he had deliberately minimized any danger. “I wanted to always play it down,” he said.

In other words, as Trump told us this virus was marginally worse than seasonal flu and refused to coordinate a full national response, he lied – and put Americans in danger of serious illness and death.

What does Trump think this job is about?

Trump knew

Woodward had written an earlier book about Trump et al and it did not offer a positive picture. Trump had to know what he was dealing with in cooperating with another effort. There is no “gotcha” here.

Additionally,  the book shows Trump calls generals pussies who care more about alliances than Trump’s trade policies; people who work for him think Trump is an idiot; Dr. Anthony Fauci, the virus guru, says Trump can’t pay attention to incoming information.

Trump cannot do the job. Trump can rail, insult, signal unquestioning followers, but he can’t do the basics of his job.

Basically, the source of this conclusion is Trump himself in these conversations. Trump called the book “just another political hit job” and said his remarks reflected that “You cannot show a sense of panic.” Fox News labeled it a “distraction.”

No one can say that a disclosure like this will affect the outcome of the November election, but in combination with reports of labeling wounded and dead soldiers “losers” and “suckers” and Trump attitudes about the hundreds of thousands of peaceful protesters for social justice, there has to be a residual effect. Many of us have a relative or friend who has been sickened or succumbed to COVID-19, and we certainly have lost jobs and had our lives turned upside down because Trump “didn’t want to cause a panic.”

Fear and panic?

We’ve spent the last seven months tearing ourselves up about wearing masks, about creating physical distance, losing jobs and school and normal lives. At the same time, Trump was disowning all of those effects?

Who does Trump think he is? He works for us, not the other way around.

It is his job to bring us into the needed information about the virus and to get this nation moving in a singular direction to fighting that contagion.

Trump seems to have absolutely no problem trying to get us to focus solely on the perceived violence of Portland and Kenosha. All of a sudden, violence that happens in the middle of the night on a single block or two of a city can be blown up by this administration to reflect complete panic in the suburbs. What is the difference?

Trump has no problem building up fear.

He only has a problem with losing the spotlight on himself, and on the visceral need for re-election.

Trump can’t do the job.

Is it time to vote?

Rick Perry’s Ukrainian dream

Rick Perry came to Washington looking for a deal, and less than two months into his tenure as energy secretary, he found a hot prospect. It was April 19, 2017, and Perry, the former Texas governor, failed presidential candidate and contestant on “Dancing With the Stars,” was sitting in his office on Independence Avenue with two influential Ukrainians. “He said, ‘Look, I’m a new guy, I’m a deal-maker, I’m a Texan,'” recalls one of them, Yuriy Vitrenko, then Ukraine’s chief energy negotiator. “We’re ready to do deals,” he remembers Perry saying.

The deals they discussed that day became central to Ukraine’s complex relationship with the Trump administration, a relationship that culminated in December with the House vote to impeach President Donald Trump. Perry was a leading figure in the impeachment inquiry last fall. He was among the officials, known as the “three amigos,” who ran a shadow foreign policy in Ukraine on Trump’s behalf. Their aim, according to the findings of the impeachment inquiry in the House, was to embarrass Trump’s main political rival, Joe Biden.

Alongside this political mission, Perry and his staff at the Energy Department worked to advance energy deals that were potentially worth billions of dollars to Perry’s friends and political donors, a six-month investigation by reporters from Time, WNYC and ProPublica shows. Two of these deals seemed set to benefit Energy Transfer, the Texas company on whose board Perry served immediately before and after his stint in Washington. The biggest was worth an estimated $20 billion, according to U.S. and Ukrainian energy executives involved in negotiating them.

If this long-discussed deal succeeds, Perry himself could stand to benefit: In March, three months after leaving government, he owned Energy Transfer shares currently worth around $800,000, according to his most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Perry appears to have stayed on the right side of the law in pursuing the Ukraine ventures. Federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, or SDNY, questioned at least four people about the deals over the past year, according to five people who are familiar with the conversations and discussed them with our reporting team on the condition of anonymity. “As far back as last year, they were already interested in events that had taken place in Ukraine around Rick Perry,” including ­allegations that Perry “was trying to get deals for his buddies,” says one of the people who spoke to the Manhattan prosecutors. Perry is not a target of their investigation, according to two sources familiar with the probes.

But two ethics experts say Perry’s efforts were violations of federal regulations. Administration officials are not allowed to participate in matters directly relating to companies on whose board they have recently served. Other experts say Perry and his aides may have broken a federal rule that prohibits officials from advocating for companies that have not been vetted by the Commerce Department. “Even if it skirts the criminal statute, it’s still unethical,” says Richard Painter, the top ethics lawyer in the White House of President George W. Bush, with whom we shared our findings.

Through a spokesman, Perry said he “never connected or ­facilitated discussions” between Energy Transfer and Ukraine’s state energy firm in one of the deals we uncovered. The spokesman declined to comment on the other ventures Perry advanced while in government, including the $20 ­billion deal, or on the federal probe. In response to written questions for this article, Energy Transfer said, “We are not aware of any contact between Secretary Perry and Ukrainian officials on Energy Transfer’s behalf.”

Our investigation shows how the hunt for energy profits in Ukraine mixed money and politics at the highest levels of the Trump administration. Perry, in and out of office, advanced the business interests of his friends and political allies. The Ukrainians, in turn, sought to exploit Perry’s agenda to advance their national interests. Now the success of Perry’s deals may depend on the outcome of the November elections, according to Ukrainian officials involved in the negotiations. That means the presidential race will not only set the conduct of American foreign policy. It could also reshape billions of dollars’ worth of business deals whose fate is closely tied to who is in power.

This account is based on interviews with more than two dozen current and former government officials and energy ­executives in the U.S. and Ukraine. Our reporting team has pursued leads and sources in Miami, Houston, New York, Kyiv and Washington, D.C., and reviewed hundreds of pages of legal documents, lobbying records, corporate emails and internal government communications. Many of the details the team uncovered have not previously been reported, and together they reveal another side of the events that set the stage for the impeachment of the U.S. president.

The Ukrainians were never naive in their overtures to the Trump team. They realized that Trump was a businessman. “We studied his psychological profile,” says Konstantin ­Eliseev, who advised Ukraine’s president on foreign policy when Trump took office in 2017. Their strategy, says Vitrenko, was “to lure or to seduce” the Trump administration by offering deals to its officials. “It was typical for Ukrainian politicians,” says the energy negotiator. “They thought that if they could, to some extent, corrupt the U.S. government, or get them interested commercially or personally, it would help.”

* * *

The Ukrainians desperately needed that help. Since 2014, they have been at war with Russia, and their country relies on U.S. support for its very survival. The first offer they dangled in that April 2017 meeting with Perry was indeed seductive: They were looking for a Western partner to take a 49% stake in the country’s gas ­pipeline network. “It’s a classic cash cow,” says Oleksandr Kharchenko, one of the Ukrainian energy experts involved in trying to sell a stake in the company. Its annual profits, he says, are close to $2 billion.

The Ukrainians apparently got Perry’s attention. From the outset, Perry’s focus on Ukraine had puzzled his colleagues in government, who say that he took a personal interest in the country’s affairs. Those affairs would normally fall under the purview of the State Department, not the Energy Department. But at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, officials felt that Perry’s office had taken the lead on Ukraine policy. “Secretary Perry’s staff was very aggressive in terms of promoting an agenda and excluding embassy personnel from meetings without giving explanations,” David Holmes, a senior embassy official, said in a deposition to Congress during the impeachment inquiry last year.

Some of the voices driving that agenda were not members of the Energy Department but private businessmen, usually from Texas. The most visible was Michael Bleyzer, an old friend and political donor of Perry’s. Known for his long mane of silver hair and a passion for scuba diving, Bleyzer was born in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and had immigrated to the U.S. in 1978. As Bleyzer explained in a series of emails and phone interviews, he shares an interest in photography with Perry, and they have taken trips together to shoot pictures in Colorado and Israel. “He considers me to be Mr. Ukraine,” says Bleyzer. “Whenever he had questions about Ukraine, he would turn to me.”

So did the Energy Department. In July 2017, three months after Perry’s first Ukraine meeting, his staff invited Bleyzer to discuss Ukraine policy at their office in Washington, according to their internal emails. (The emails were released in February in response to a Freedom of Information Act request from American Oversight, a good-­governance watchdog.) Over the following year, Bleyzer became a steady presence at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, often requesting meetings with U.S. Ambassador Marie “Masha” Yovanovitch. “Bleyzer came to the embassy once a month,” says a person familiar with the meetings. The embassy staff were deeply concerned about the dual role Bleyzer appeared to be playing, both as a private businessman in search of oil and gas deals in Ukraine, and as an informal adviser to Perry. “We always tried to convince Masha not to take the meeting,” says a person familiar with these visits. “But she said: ‘I can’t. He’s Perry’s buddy.'” (Yovanovitch declined to comment for this article.)

Bleyzer also had contacts at Energy Transfer, the company where Perry used to be a director. Its CEO, Kelcy Warren, gave $6 million to super PACs behind Perry’s 2016 presidential race. In mid-June 2018, Bleyzer organized a trip to Kyiv for one of the company’s executives. “I brought Energy Transfer to Ukraine,” Bleyzer says of that trip. Their interest, he says, had to do with Ukraine’s gas ­pipeline network, which the country had opened to foreign investment. It was the same deal the Ukrainians had pitched in Perry’s office a year earlier, in April 2017. “Bleyzer told me, when he came to visit me, that this [company] was blessed by Perry,” says one of the Ukrainian executives he met with. “The company was called Energy Transfer.” (Bleyzer denies saying this and says he “never discussed Energy Transfer with Perry.”)

 

The two sides did not make an obvious match. Energy Transfer has never done a major deal outside of North America. But the investment in Ukraine was enticing. The country’s pipeline system is a reliable moneymaker, says Sergey Makogon, the head of the company that operates it. Russia pays more than a billion dollars a year to send its gas through Ukraine’s pipelines to Europe. If Energy Transfer invested in that pipeline system, it could get a share of those profits. Vitrenko, who later led the negotiations with Energy Transfer, says they discussed an American investment of as much as $3 billion.

During his time in the Trump administration, Perry had no formal ties to Energy Transfer. He had sold his shares in the company after Trump nominated him to his Cabinet and stepped down from its board. At his confirmation hearing before the Senate in January 2017, Perry said under oath that he had no conflicts of interest in leading the U.S. Energy Department. But during his tenure, the Energy Department worked to advance a deal between Ukraine and Energy Transfer, according to three of the Ukrainian negotiators involved. “They support this deal 100%,” says Kharchenko, one of the Ukrainian negotiators. The Energy Department says it did not encourage or advance these talks. The company says it never got enough information from the Ukrainians to determine the value of a potential investment.

But the pipeline system was hardly the biggest project Ukraine had to offer the Americans. Far more valuable was the prospect of selling American gas in Europe. At the end of 2015, while Perry was serving on the company’s board, Energy Transfer received a federal permit to build a gas-­export terminal in Lake Charles, in southern Louisiana. A few months later, the company signed a deal with Shell, the Dutch energy giant, to jointly develop the terminal at an estimated cost of about $11 billion.

This new export venture had left one big question unanswered­: Where would Energy Transfer ship its gas? The global market for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, has plenty of suppliers, with shipments pouring out of Qatar, Australia and other major exporters. To make this project succeed, Energy Transfer needed a major buyer for its gas, ideally a buyer that would commit to a long-term supply deal. By 2019, an opportunity like that had emerged in Ukraine.

Perry wasn’t coy about his agenda in Ukraine. When he first visited Kyiv in November 2018, he told a gathering of businessmen about a complex way to get American gas to Europe. It would involve shipping the gas to Poland on giant tankers, then stashing it underground in Ukraine before selling it back, westward, into the European Union. “The potential for Ukraine is stunning,” Perry told the business roundtable. Soon after, officials at the Energy Department began to coin new terms for American LNG, calling it “freedom gas” and “molecules of freedom” as they sought to market it around the world.

While the Obama administration also sought to undercut Russian energy influence by exporting American LNG to Europe, some of Perry’s colleagues in the Trump administration were surprised, and often frustrated, by the secretary’s focus on selling gas. “He was a fierce advocate for LNG exports around the globe,” said Tom Pyle, who headed the Trump transition team at the Department of Energy. “But he failed to restart the nuclear-­waste program or initiate the much needed reforms at the agency, which are major disappointments,” Pyle told the energy-focused publication E&E News.

Perry ultimately went straight to the top in Ukraine with his energy ­evangelism — and his favored disciples. In May 2019, Trump sent him to Kyiv to attend the inauguration of Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky. During a meeting that day, Perry did something his handlers at the U.S. Embassy did not expect, despite their extensive planning for the talks. Perry handed a piece of paper to ­Zelensky and urged him to have a look. As he did so, Perry explained that the note contained a list of names of “people he trusts,” according to Holmes, the U.S. diplomat, who was the official note taker at the event.

Among the names on the list was Bleyzer, Perry’s old friend from Houston. The following month, June 2019, Bleyzer finally got the deal he wanted in Ukraine. In an auction of licenses to drill for oil and gas, the choicest license went to Bleyzer’s company, which got the rights to develop some of Ukraine’s biggest oil and gas fields over the next 50 years. The deal was first reported by The Associated Press in November. It is potentially worth billions of dollars.

There was another name on Perry’s list, and it surprised the Ukrainians: Robert Bensh. A little-known oil and gas executive from Texas, Bensh had known Perry for only a few months by that point. Starting in the early 2000s, Bensh spent over a decade as one of the few American investors in Ukraine’s oil and gas sector. His contacts in Kyiv included close associates of Ukraine’s corrupt former President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted in a revolution in 2014. After that revolution, Bensh’s business in Ukraine dried up, and he had returned to Houston. “I wanted nothing to do with Ukraine,” Bensh told our reporting team in a series of interviews.

The Ukrainians soon understood at least one of the reasons for his return: Bensh was tied to Perry’s dream of exporting American gas to Ukraine. Along with a group of investors from Louisiana, Bensh was promoting a company called Louisiana Natural Gas Exports Inc., better known among its founders as LNGE. Established in June 2018, the company had no deals or assets to its name. The man listed as its co-founder and director, Marsden Miller, is related to Bensh by marriage. In 1987, a jury in Louisiana found Miller guilty of corruption; his sentence was later overturned, and the government dropped the case against him after the U.S. Supreme Court narrowed the relevant statute in an unrelated case. LNGE owns no gas fields, no pipelines, no tankers and no export terminal. But its executives had connections in Ukraine and at the Energy Department. On July 10, 2019, those connections began to bear fruit.

That date marked a turning point in Ukraine’s relations with the Trump administration. It was that afternoon in the White House that two officials from Kyiv were pressured to open investigations into Trump’s political rivals. National ­Security Adviser John Bolton memorably called the day’s events a “drug deal.”

But the Ukrainians had another date with the Trump administration that evening. After the unsettling interaction at the White House, the two had a dinner meeting in a restaurant near the White House with two top Perry aides. Also there: Robert Bensh. As he sat down at the table, Oleksandr Danyliuk, then the national security adviser to Ukraine’s president, remembers wondering why Bensh would be invited to a private dinner with senior government officials. “Smells like trouble,” Danyliuk remembers thinking.

The deal Bensh and his partners had in mind was very similar to the one Perry had raised during his first trip to Kyiv eight months earlier. To them, at least, it seemed like a win all around. Shipping U.S. gas via Poland to Ukraine and then reselling it in the European Union would “make money for LNGE,” Bensh explains. It could also make a lot of money for an American company like Energy Transfer that was looking for long-term buyers of gas from its export terminal. “To be able to build their terminals, they have to get orders,” says Bensh. And of course the deal would also fit with Perry’s agenda of selling American “freedom gas” to the world.

But from Ukraine’s point of view, the plan had some critical flaws. One was the cost of transport: shipping American gas to Europe is expensive. And if Ukrainians agreed to buy that gas, they might get stuck paying a premium for many years to come. While prior governments in Kyiv had espoused the idea, the new administration there was skeptical. “It looks like it would be a big disaster,” says Danyliuk, the national security adviser. In any case, during that dinner near the White House, he was too preoccupied with the day’s “drug deal” to talk about any gas deals. Bensh could see it was the wrong time to push.

But Perry continued to promote his vision for American natural gas exports. That same month, July 2019, he was among the U.S. officials urging Trump to hold a phone call with Ukraine’s new president. “The only reason I made the call was because Rick asked me to,” the president later told a group of Republican lawmakers, according to a report in Axios that cited three of them. “Something about an LNG plant,” Trump reportedly added. When the call took place on July 25, 2019, Trump urged the Ukrainian president to open investigations against the Biden family, famously asking Zelensky to “do us a favor.” A rough transcript of the call would become Exhibit A of the impeachment inquiry.

The rough transcript makes no mention of Perry’s gas agenda, but in the wake of the presidential shakedown, Perry pressed ahead. For much of that summer, his staff had been preparing to sign an international energy agreement during a summit in Warsaw. The aim of the summit, which began at the end of August 2019, was to pave the way for U.S. companies to ship gas to Ukraine via Poland. LNGE was angling to become one of those U.S. companies, and Perry’s team had invited the company’s chief executive to attend. The company had even written up a preliminary offer to Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state energy firm.

Perry and his staff were urging Ukraine to sign it, according to three energy executives close to the ongoing negotiations. “They basically said: ‘If you want us as friends, you’ve got to do this,'” one of them recalled. But the Ukrainians had bigger worries at the time. A few days before the summit, Politico had broken the news that the Trump administration had frozen a package of military aid to Ukraine later revealed to be worth $400 million. The Kyiv delegation was desperate to get the freeze lifted. “The biggest priority for me was the military aid,” says Danyliuk.

So he left it to Naftogaz, the state energy company, to consider the offer of a deal with LNGE. “We looked them up,” says Andrew Favorov, the Naftogaz executive who vetted the potential partner. A Google search led them to the past legal woes of Miller, LNGE’s co-founder and director. That was a red flag for the Ukrainians. Moreover, says Favorov, “The company has no real assets.” So Naftogaz advised its government not to pursue a gas deal with the Louisiana company.

Soon the deal faced another problem. Three weeks after the Warsaw summit, news broke that a whistle-blower had raised the alarm over Trump’s pressure campaign in Ukraine, and the White House released the rough transcript of Trump’s phone call with Zelensky. Amid all the public attention, the discussions of a U.S.-Ukraine gas deal went quiet, according to energy executives involved on both sides. With the impeachment investigation gaining steam, and his name emerging as a central player in the Ukraine saga, Perry announced in October that he would resign from the Energy Department at the end of the year.

The deal that Perry and his allies pursued for three years while he was in Washington didn’t die when he stepped down and returned to Texas. After Trump’s acquittal in the Senate on Feb. 5, Perry’s allies inside and outside of government ­revived the massive U.S. gas-export deal he had been ­advancing, and pushed forward. In early March, representatives of LNGE met with Perry’s successor as energy secretary, Dan Brouillette, a veteran of Louisiana politics. “He told us they were still 100% behind the deal,” says one of the LNGE representatives who was at that meeting. The Energy Department denies it supported the deal. The meeting with LNGE “was purely introductory and informational,” says Shaylyn Hynes, a spokesperson for the department.

After that meeting, things in Ukraine began to move fast. On March 11, the Zelensky government issued a decree appointing Bensh to the board of Naftogaz. Two days later, Ukraine’s deputy energy minister announced that Ukraine had agreed to a major LNG deal with the Americans. The U.S. partner on the deal: Louisiana Natural Gas Exports.

The details were not disclosed, but the way the deal came about raised eyebrows on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., critics pointed out that the Energy Department’s apparent support for the deal appears to have violated federal rules that bar U.S. officials from advocating for U.S. companies that have not been vetted by the Commerce Department. LNGE never went through that vetting process, according to its executives. “The vetting process is there to identify conflicts of interest, previous improper dealings, anything that might reflect poorly on the U.S. government as a whole,” says Theo LeCompte, who was a deputy chief of staff at the Commerce Department during Barack Obama’s second term. ­Brouillette’s office confirmed that LNGE had not been vetted and denied that the department had advocated for the company.

On the Ukrainian side, things were even more curious: Ukraine had not invited any competition for the deal. But even with the U.S. Energy Department’s apparent blessing, the deal still wasn’t a lock. Naftogaz executives were still refusing to partner with the Louisiana company. As an alternative partner on the Ukrainian side, Kyiv’s Energy Ministry proposed an obscure state entity called MGU, which holds the shares of Ukraine’s gas pipeline system.

But executives at that company also began to raise alarms, most notably the chairman of its supervisory board, ­Walter Boltz, a stately Austrian who had been brought in to help clean up the notoriously troubled Ukrainian gas industry. “Nobody wanted to tell the Americans, ‘OK, this is a silly idea, stop it,'” says Boltz of the Louisiana deal. “You need to keep your friends happy.” And the Ukrainians, he added, “might even be willing to pay a little bit more, I guess, to make Trump happy and keep the military aid flowing.”

By the end of May, the Energy Ministry had fired the skeptic Boltz and announced another preliminary agreement with the Louisiana company. In a 20-page document, known as a memorandum of intent, the two sides spelled out the rough terms of the deal. Ukraine would agree to take shipments of gas from Louisiana for the next 20 years, according to a copy obtained by our reporting team. The volumes involved were substantial­, amounting to 5.5 billion cubic meters per year, more than the annual gas consumption of Slovakia, an EU member that ­borders Ukraine. Executives at the Louisiana company say they projected the total sales from the deal to be around $20 billion, or roughly a billion dollars per year over two decades.

Still, the agreement left one crucial question unanswered: Where was the Louisiana company going to get all that gas? In June, LNGE turned to Energy Transfer. By that point, Perry had reclaimed his seat on the board of Energy Transfer and acquired its stock. Once the Louisiana executives had their preliminary deal with Ukraine, they went to Energy Transfer in search of a gas terminal, says Miller, the co-founder of LNGE. In a statement, Energy Transfer played down these discussions, saying they amounted to “one introductory conference call” that did not go any further, and Miller insists they did not talk about a partnership in Ukraine at the time. Other executives at LNGE say it was just one step toward completing the $20 billion deal. “First we had to finalize the deal in Ukraine,” one of them says. “Then we get the gas.”

It was at this final stage in the negotiations that the deal ran into major trouble. The Ukrainians began to stall. According to one official involved in Ukraine’s deliberations about the deal, the reason for the delay was in large part political. By then, the COVID-19 pandemic was raging, and Trump’s approval ratings had gone into sharp decline amid his chaotic handling of the outbreak. His chances of winning reelection began to look less and less likely.

For the Ukrainians, that changed the political equation behind the deal. “If Biden is elected, I’d say Biden’s [team] would be pretty curious, to say the least,” about how the deal with LNGE came together, says the official involved in Ukraine’s deliberations. “In terms of relationships, that would be very damaging,” adds the official. “Given the latest [poll] numbers, that’s simply a stupid thing to do,” he says.

Perry’s allies found themselves getting the cold shoulder. Six months after the Zelensky government named Bensh to the board of Naftogaz, he has yet to officially take up that post. Bleyzer, Perry’s friend from Texas, hasn’t fared much better. Soon after he won the licenses to develop oil and gas fields in Ukraine in June 2019, Naftogaz challenged the awarding of those licenses in court. Ukraine’s government, which owns 100% of Naftogaz, has declined to interfere in the litigation, which has prevented Bleyzer’s oil and gas projects from getting off the ground.

As for Energy Transfer, during the heat of the impeachment investigation in October 2019, the Ukrainian Parliament decided that selling the country’s gas pipelines wasn’t such a great idea, and it voted to ban foreign ownership of those pipelines. The global collapse in gas prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, meanwhile, hit Energy Transfer hard. Its plans to build an LNG-export terminal in Louisiana took a blow at the end of March 2020, when Shell, its 50-50 partner in the project, decided to pull out, citing adverse market conditions.

Some of the executives in Louisiana are furious over the foot-dragging in Kyiv, and they put the blame on Naftogaz. In emails obtained by our reporting team, Miller, the director and co-founder of the Louisiana company, lashed out at Naftogaz for telling the government in Kyiv about Miller’s overturned conviction on corruption charges. “This is the guy who went to the U.S. Attorney for the SDNY?” Miller wrote indignantly to his colleagues, referring to Andriy ­Kobolyev, the Naftogaz CEO. Indeed, the U.S. attorney’s office for New York’s Southern District had contacted Kobolyev in the fall of 2019, and he says he agreed to speak to its investigators. Those investigators have since questioned at least three other people about Perry’s efforts to secure gas deals in Ukraine, according to the people familiar with what they told the investigators.

 

But earlier this year, prosecutors dropped that line of questioning, according to two people familiar with the questions they have posed since April. Noah Bookbinder, a former anti­-corruption prosecutor with whom we shared our findings, says U.S. laws make prosecuting conflicts of interest difficult. “Criminal conflicts of interest are not charged all that frequently, because they can be hard to prove,” he says. “It’s got a relatively modest sentence. So often prosecutors will look at that and say, ‘It’s a lot of hard work to prove that, and it’s not the biggest offense. So we’re not going to take the time to go down that path.'”

Two years ago, some Democrats called for tighter restrictions on potential conflicts of interest, and they have pointed to Perry’s relationship with Energy Transfer to justify new legislation. Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a bill in 2018, known as the Anti-Corruption and Public Integrity Act, that would ban corporations from hiring or paying former heads of agencies they have lobbied. In a letter to Perry and Energy Transfer last January, Warren urged Perry to resign from Energy Transfer’s board. “This is exactly the kind of unethical, revolving-­door corruption that has made Americans cynical and distrustful of the federal government,” Warren wrote. In a curt reply, the company told Warren it was “fully aware of our legal and ethical standards related to Secretary Perry rejoining our board.”

So is the $20 billion deal dead? Not necessarily. The Ukrainians appear to be waiting to see which way the political winds turn in November. Should Trump win another term, some Ukrainians assume Perry’s deal might come back to life. “Wait three months, and then see what happens,” says the official involved in the deliberations in Kyiv. “This is obvious political stuff. You don’t have to be a genius to understand this logic.”

But for all the Ukrainian efforts to seduce the Americans, some at least are disappointed with the entire process. They had hoped, on some level, that the U.S. agenda was still driven by a shared set of goals and values, like strengthening alliances and pushing back against the influence of Russia. But over time, says Vitrenko, the energy negotiator, it became clear that the overarching aims were simpler and, to the Ukrainians, more familiar. “It was about making deals,” he says. And making money.

This story is co-published with Time and WNYC.

Stay up to date with email updates about WNYC and ProPublica’s investigations into the president’s business practices.

CNN’s Jim Sciutto: Vladimir Putin has seduced Trump — now the world sees America as weak

The president of the United States takes the following oath at his or her inauguration: “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Donald Trump has repeatedly betrayed this promise, and should long since have been removed from office for doing so.

The Constitution deems that the president is commander in chief of the military. As revealed by the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, Donald Trump believes that members of the U.S. military who have been wounded or killed in battle are “suckers” and “losers” for not being as selfish and cowardly as he is. Trump also believes that disabled veterans should not be seen in public because they somehow shame or embarrass the country.

Trump also has no respect for the United States military’s role as defender of the country’s democracy from threats both foreign and domestic. To that end, he attempted to order military commanders to attack Americans who were (and are) exercising their constitutionally-guaranteed civil rights by protesting against his regime in response to the police killing of George Floyd, as well as in support of social justice more generally.

Fortunately, military commanders put the institutional legitimacy of the armed forces ahead of the president’s whims by deflecting his orders. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has also apologized for appearing alongside Trump on the streets of Washington. 

Trump has repeatedly suggested that he is likely ignore the results of the 2020 election, and may seek to use the military to quell protests or other acts of resistance, perhaps by invoking the Insurrection Act.

Trump has also pardoned accused or convicted war criminals because he idolizes cruelty and lawlessness. Trump and his regime, in fact, views war criminals as useful tools in his authoritarian campaign against American democracy.

Many of the United States’ most senior retired military personnel, members of the intelligence community and diplomats, as well as other elites in the national defense community, have publicly condemned Donald Trump as an extreme threat to the country’s safety, security and democracy.

Overall, Donald Trump has made the United States less safe, less respected, less powerful, less influential, and less respected as a world power. In the Age of Trump and the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. has become a pariah nation, shamed before the world.

Is there any strategic logic to Trump’s decision-making about the United States and its role in the world? How do Trump’s ignorance, selfishness and authoritarian beliefs, combined with his conviction that his own personal interests are identical to the nation’s, imperil our safety and security? Does the Trump regime’s contempt for the truth and empirical reality endanger the long-term future of our nation?

In an effort to answer these questions, I recently spoke with Jim Sciutto, CNN’s chief national security correspondent and co-anchor of “CNN Newsroom.” Sciutto previously served as ABC News’ senior foreign correspondent and during his extensive career has reported from more than 50 countries, including Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. His new book is “The Madman Theory: Trump Takes on the World.”

At the end of this conversation Sciutto warns that the consensus among many of the country’s senior defense and intelligence professionals is that Donald Trump idolizes Vladimir Putin, and is somehow personally bound to him. If this is true, Trump’s fealty to a foreign leader has fatally compromised his ability to make decisions in the best interests of the United States and the American people.

You can also listen to my conversation with Jim Sciutto on my podcast “The Truth Report” or through the player embedded below.

This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

How are you feeling, given all that is happening and has happened with Donald Trump and his administration?

I’m feeling stress for my country. That is not a political sentiment. I love my country. I’ve spent a lot of time outside of it for professional reasons. As a foreign correspondent, you end up loving America more because you live in places where they do not have our freedoms or institutions, many of which we take for granted. When I see those institutions being undermined here in the United States and people losing confidence in their own country, I am very concerned. I am still an optimist, but there is much to be concerned about here in the United States because of Donald Trump and all that has happened.

How does America look from abroad?

There is not a lot of respect right now for the United States. I do not want to overstate that because, frankly, there are many countries in the world with much bigger problems than this country right now.

For example, the COVID outbreak. The U.S. has certainly been one of the worst in terms of responding to it. That is not a political statement. It is based on the data. Europe is doing much better for example than the United States with the pandemic and its deadly consequences and other problems.

The state of the country’s political discourse is also not good. Is the United States able to solve problems in the way it did not too long ago? Pew polling shows that the world’s opinion of the United States has greatly diminished. The world is viewed much worse than it was during another low point, which was during George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq.

How are career diplomats and other public servants reacting to the Trump regime and its assaults on norms and values? These are government professionals who have served in multiple administrations. How are they making sense of this tumult?

Here is what is different. There have always been disagreements about policy and how best to accomplish those goals. What is different now is that there is an assault on the truth. There is not an agreed-upon set of facts. At first, I thought that maybe having to confront a pandemic would do that. Another example would be Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. There was a bipartisan judgment that Russia interfered, and that the Russians did so to help Trump win.

It came out of committees, as well as the intelligence agencies. Trump attacked those findings and took them personally. That was a consensus not just of a bipartisan committee but the country’s intelligence community as well. Intelligence findings can be attacked more easily because it is still a matter of interpretation.

But in the middle of a pandemic, there are hard facts. People are dying. You can count the number of people dying. You can count and document the positive infection rates.

You can count the number of infections. One can easily disprove Donald Trump’s claims that cases are only rising because there is more testing, because the percentage of people testing positive is also going up. But not in this environment where even the facts are disputed. Conspiracy theories existed well before Donald Trump, but he has super-turbocharged them to the point where they are leaking more and more into mainstream conversation. Democracy cannot operate without an agreed-upon set of facts and the country is miles down that rabbit hole right now.

Does Donald Trump have an ideology? Is his administration guided by some overriding principle that orients its approach to the world?

He has an approach and a view of the world. It is an open question as to whether he has a strategy — and that is a question raised by people who worked for him. For my new book, I spoke only to people who worked for Trump and were appointed by him at the highest levels.

When I asked those officials to describe Trump’s view of the world it was described as transactional: “What can you do for me? I scratch your back. You scratch mine.” Trump has done that equally with adversaries and allies. Trump has no worldview beyond that. There is no understanding of the ancillary benefit of friendships and alliances.

[Former national security adviser] H.R. McMaster told me how much trouble he had convincing Trump that there was more to alliances than just some sort of quid pro quo bottom line. These include shared history, shared values, a shared interest in the rule of law, sharing of intelligence to fight terrorism and other understandings. Trump does not see the world and alliances in that way.  As such, Donald Trump will just as easily upend a friendship as he will antagonize a competitor. The United States is on a path of confrontation with China. But the United States also has highly antagonistic relationships now with our closest allies in Europe. With South Korea, the president is demanding they quintuple their contribution to the deployment of U.S. forces there and is threatening to take those forces away in the midst of the worsening standoff with North Korea.

Or even consider Canada, arguably one of our closest allies. Trump has used national security powers to impose economic sanctions on them including tariffs. In essence, Donald Trump has labeled Canada a national security threat.

Donald Trump does not read. He is proudly ignorant. He is a malignant narcissist. How is it even possible to have a coherent foreign policy with such a president?

Trump’s national security advisers knew and realized that he was not reading any of the briefing notes. So early on, McMaster’s team came up with the idea of boiling the briefings down to note cards with just three bullet points, thinking that would get through to Trump.

They tried it, and discovered pretty quickly that Trump was only reading the first two of the three bullet points. That is as much as Trump would read.

Then the national security advisers started concentrating the most important information in the first two bullet points and the third became a throwaway line.

Then they figured out Trump was not even reading the note cards. Trump does not process the material. He does not take the time to read it. Even worse, Trump will just reject it. He’ll contradict it and say, “I know better,” in effect. Trump does that not just with opinions but with facts and analysis.

And not just opinions, analysis, but even facts. Sue Gordon briefed Trump a number of times when she was on track to be the country’s highest-ranking intelligence official, until he forced her out. Gordon communicated how the most alarming times were when Trump rejected things that the intelligence community knew to be true, which they could show definitively. Trump would reject those facts because they did not fit his worldview or were somehow inconvenient for him.

Trump’s advisers told me that his personal interests were often indistinguishable from the nation’s interests in his mind. He mixed the two together. In Trump’s mind, his re-election is a goal in itself that is as important as the country’s national interests. That is what happened with Trump and Ukraine. Trump denied an ally military aid during a war to get political dirt on Joe Biden. Right now, Donald Trump is refusing to hold Russia accountable for interfering in the presidential election again, to help him.

How do you explain Donald Trump’s public deference to Vladimir Putin and Russia?

I asked everyone I interviewed for the book to explain it. The best explanation they could come up with, and this was a consistent belief held by more than one person, was that Donald Trump has an inexplicable admiration for Vladimir Putin.

Another former senior adviser said that Vladimir Putin is Donald Trump’s honey trap. A honey trap is the beautiful woman the other side sends to try to influence you, to bring you over to the enemy or rival.

There were concerns within the intelligence community that what Russia was doing, and is still doing, with Trump is running an influence operation on him. The Russians are trying to influence Trump’s view of the world to make it more in line with their national interests. There are examples of this, such as the way Trump is parroting Vladimir Putin’s view of Europe and countries such as Germany. Trump has also parroted Putin’s comments about Russia’s role in World War II and how it was supposedly always America’s friend. To hear such things about Trump and Putin’s relationship from people who worked with Trump at the highest levels is very alarming.

Given Trump’s behavior and escalating authoritarian policies and personal threats, it appears that he is actually being mentored or somehow guided by Putin and other authoritarians.

Some of Trump’s comments can be readily dismissed. But Trump’s admiration for Putin’s power is real. That is something that his advisers spoke about openly to me, and many of them did so on the record.

We also see that admiration in Trump’s public statements and his tactics. Repeatedly declaring the press to be “the enemy of the people” is intentional. Trump has made these threats so often during his time in office that it has created open hostility toward the news media, to the point where there has been violence, such as those exploding letters that were sent to CNN. We had to have security at Trump’s rallies because he would point to the press and say, “Enemy of the people.” Trump’s behavior is right out of the authoritarian’s playbook.

Why don’t we see mass resignations by the professional public servants? Why do they stay, given what Trump is doing?

There are still a lot of people in government who believe in what they do. They love their country and they believe that they are doing good work. They also believe that they have a role to play. We still see that. Members of the Postal Service raised the alarm about what was happening there, with slowing down the processing and delivery of the mail during election season. Many of these people who still believe in what they are doing and are fighting to do their best in public service have paid a hefty price for that decision.

I’m in touch with Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, the whistleblower who exposed what Trump was doing with Ukraine, who made a decision to leave the military because he was told that his career was basically over. Many good public servants stay as long as they can, even with Trump. There are still true believers in this country’s government and public service.

What happened to the story about Russian bounties on U.S. troops? That would have ended another presidency. Why wasn’t there been daily coverage of it by the mainstream news media?

Two years prior, Donald Trump also rejected the fact that the Russians were supplying arms to the Taliban. The lives of U.S. troops were threatened and Trump did not treat it as a big deal. It is hard for the news media and others to stay focused on the Russian bounty scandal because there is something new every day from the Trump administration. We need to do our best to keep asking questions about the Russian bounties and other such issues, even though they quickly fade out of the spotlight. I try to connect the dots on these issues. But it is hard because there is a portion of the country right now that will just ignore whatever wrongs are done by the Trump administration.

Your book is called “The Madman Theory.” How do you make sense of Trump’s strategic approach to foreign policy?

Donald Trump has put his own spin on it. If we go back to the origins of the “madman theory,” it was Richard Nixon who came up with that. Nixon deliberately had his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, communicate to North Vietnam that he was just mad enough to launch a nuclear strike. The intention there was to gain leverage in negotiations with North Vietnam on ending the war. It did not work.

Fifty years later, there is a president in the form of Donald Trump who for years in his business dealings bragged about keeping the other side off balance, surprising them at the last minute, making big demands and then making a concession or the other way around, etc. But in practice, Trump’s madman theory is one where the victories that do occur are because of accident and not intentional strategy. Trump uses his madman approach both with allies and enemies. Trump also does that to his own staff. I was repeatedly told by Trump’s staffers of many examples where they would be surprised by the president and then have to explain to America’s allies what had just happened.

If you’re unleashing the madman on everyone, including the people on your side, that’s just chaos. It is not a viable plan. On issues from North Korea to Iran and China, Trump has left those situations worse than before he became president. By and large, his madman approach has failed.

I discuss the North Korea situation a great deal in the new book. I walk readers through the “fire and fury” period of Trump’s approach to North Korea, and then Trump’s love-affair approach to Kim Jong-un.

The bottom line on North Korea is that both approaches failed. Four years later, North Korea has more, not fewer, nukes. They’ve got a more advanced ballistic missile program, not a less advanced ballistic program.

Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon, not further, with Trump having withdrawn the United States from the nuclear deal. One can argue about whether Iran has been cowed or deterred by the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani. If seeking a less aggressive Iran was Trump’s goal, such an approach failed because Iran is now more aggressive, not less.  

How do you explain to the public how perilous the situation with North Korea was in 2017?

The crisis with North Korea was so close to war that Donald Trump’s own military advisers hesitated to give him military options. During the worst, most tense period in late 2017, his own military advisers were concerned that Trump was going to put the two countries on a path to war. The advisers were so concerned that they communicated to their North Korean counterparts that they did not know what President Trump was going to do next. They described him as “unpredictable” because they were concerned the two sides would get on an unstoppable path toward war if Trump had his way.

In total, North Korea was an example where Trump’s own advisers were so concerned about the madman that they held back. It’s a remarkable judgment on his decision-making.

What happens when there is an imminent threat to the United States and Trump’s national security advisers tell him, “Mr. President, we must act now!” and Trump just says “Who cares?”

We’ve seen it happen. It’s not even a hypothetical. Trump was briefed on Russia paying bounties to kill U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and he just said, “I don’t want to believe it.” Yes, it was not a high-confidence assessment, but the president went so far as to say it was another Russia hoax.

That was not the first time that Trump had done such a thing. In 2018, we knew that the Russians sold weapons to the Taliban. So we’ve already seen the president deny the best advice and ignore clear U.S. national security interests. What is more important than protecting U.S. soldiers abroad? Donald Trump will not do it.

What is a more important institution for American democracy than a free and fair election? Four years after Russia interfered in 2016 to benefit Donald Trump, the Russians are doing it again. Again, Donald Trump will not accept that intelligence assessment. He won’t warn Vladimir Putin and Russia to stop interfering in America’s presidential elections.  

We are seeing your dire scenario play out in real life, right before our eyes.

What do America’s enemies and rivals see in Donald Trump?

Donald Trump projects a false image of strength. Vladimir Putin sees weakness in the NATO alliance and a leader, Donald Trump, that he can exploit and influence.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, saw a leader in Trump whom he could, on private phone calls, convince to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria because that was in Turkey’s interest.

This false idea that Trump is somehow kicking ass and taking names is not the way that Putin and other leaders view him. With Trump the United States is a paper tiger. It’s not the real deal. A senior intelligence official told me that adversaries, our enemies, know that the United States with Trump as president does not know the next play.

They know we don’t know it. They know that Trump is unpredictable. They know that he keeps his own staff and policymaking institutions off balance. America’s enemies and adversaries know that the United States does not know what is coming next and they seek to take advantage of that.

It is a weakness. America’s enemies perceive weakness in Donald Trump. They do not see that as some great strength or the “art of the deal.” They see a country, arguably the most powerful country in the world, lurching around with no idea of what is coming next. The country is just being led by the whims of the moment from the commander in chief. That’s a pretty damning assessment.

Foreign policy is complicated. Most Americans are very ignorant about it. How would you explain why Donald Trump’s approach to international relations should matter to them?

Because their country’s national security is at stake. The threats facing the United States have gotten bigger during his term. North Korea’s nuclear program, Iran’s nuclear program, Russia’s threat to Europe and the West have all gotten bigger, not smaller, during Trump’s term. In our lifetimes we benefited from a peaceful world where the United States has been largely secure from those kinds of threats. With Trump, the United States is less safe. 

Beyond that, what is your view of your own country? Do you see the United States as not just standing for something different as compared to many other countries, but also operating differently, where people here can rely on their democratic institutions? The rule of law? Fair elections? All those things are being undermined by Donald Trump and his administration. People have to know exactly what is happening with Trump and America before they vote on Election Day.

Donald Trump called voting by mail “refreshingly democratic” in 2000 New York Times op-ed

President Donald Trump, in a 2000 New York Times op-ed, cited the benefits of voting by mail and email as the principal reason why he had briefly run for president as a Reform Party candidate.

“The Reform Party was my chosen vehicle because its nomination process does not involve a long string of early primaries, but instead culminates in one national primary conducted by mail and e-mail in August,” Trump wrote.

Trump, who votes by mail, has repeatedly claimed without evidence that the practice invites fraud.

“With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history,” Trump tweeted July 30.

When Fox News anchor Chris Wallace pushed him on whether he would be a gracious loser, should the election come to that, Trump pointed to mail ballots as a reason he would not.

“You don’t know until you see, it depends. I think mail-in voting is gonna rig the election, I really do,” he said.

On Saturday the president tweeted that “unsolicited” mail-in ballots were “a major threat to our Democracy,” and that “almost all recent elections” — even small ones — that used the system have been “a disaster.”

But when Trump briefly launched a presidential campaign 20 years ago, he called that very same process “refreshingly democratic.” It would, he wrote, “lend itself to a candidate with national name recognition and the financial resources to flood the process with new people” — a candidate like himself.

Primary votes for the Reform candidate that year, as Salon noted at the time, could be cast in person or remotely by mail, phone or by the Internet.

Ballots would be sent automatically to anyone who registered as a member of the party, anyone of any party affiliation who had signed a Reform candidate’s petition in a state that had not yet recognized the party, and in fact anyone else who asked to participate.

The op-ed, published Feb. 19, 2000, and titled “What I Saw at the Revolution,” was Trump’s autopsy of his own failed candidacy and justification for abandoning the Reform Party, an experience he called a “great civics lesson.”

While Trump offers only one reason for choosing the Reform Party — the ability to vote by mail or email — he puts forward a number of arguments for leaving, one of them being the “fringe” elements in the party, which became a haven for right-wing extremists such as David Duke and Pat Buchanan.

“I saw the underside of the Reform Party. The fringe element that wanted to repeal the federal income tax, believed that the country was being run by the Trilateral Commission and suspected that my potential candidacy was a stalking horse for (take your pick) Gov. George W. Bush, Senator John McCain or Vice President Al Gore,” Trump wrote.

(Jeffrey Epstein, Trump’s friend at the time, was a member of the Trilateral Commission, a shadowy multinational organization and subject of “new world order” conspiracy theories.)

Trump also laid blame on his nemesis John McCain, who ran on a reform message that year as a Republican candidate and, according to Trump, “made the opportunity for this contrast difficult, and depending on the outcome of the South Carolina primary, perhaps impossible.”

He also rejected the far-right (and far-left) candidates vying for the nomination that year.

“Although I am totally comfortable with the people in the New York Independence Party, I leave the Reform Party to David Duke, Pat Buchanan and Lenora Fulani,” Trump said. “That is not company I wish to keep.”

Notably, in 2000 Trump was eager to disavow Duke, the former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. But when asked in 2016 to repudiate Duke’s endorsement, Trump famously replied, “I don’t know anything about him.”

The op-ed is written in an arch, florid voice that sounds nothing like Trump. Longtime Trump ally and strategist Roger Stone, who played a key role in his Reform Party bid, initially denied to Salon that it had been ghostwritten. 

“Nobody ghostwrites for DJT,” Stone told Salon in a text message.

However, Dave Shiflett, the co-author of Trump’s 2000 campaign book “The America We Deserve” and a member of a Washington-area ghostwriting group, told Salon that while he had not written the New York Times piece, he wrote a Los Angeles Times op-ed on Trump’s behalf that same year.

When informed of this, Stone refined his previous answer: “I may have helped synthesize his conclusions after our exploratory effort.”

“Trump didn’t write it himself,” said Allen Salkin, an aide to Trump’s 2000 campaign who co-wrote a book about the experience, called “Method to the Madness.”

“He and Roger would put out the broad themes. Trump just sort of talks and a writer records it and turns it into a story,” he explained.

When asked what drew Trump to the Reform Party, Salkin said that the party-agnostic primary mechanisms, including voting arrangements, appealed to Trump’s torpid nature.

“He didn’t want to do the hard work of getting on the ballot in every state, which was what would be required,” Salkin said.

The Reform strategy in 2000 was that, by compelling candidates to petition their way onto the ballot through collecting signatures, the party could grow itself at the same time. The incentive for the candidates was that each qualified signatory could then vote in the Reform primary, regardless of party affiliation, allowing them to draw from a broad pool of voters.

But signature gathering is expensive, a job candidates often delegate to subcontractors. Stone said that big names on the ballot, like Trump’s, could inflate the price, which is typically around $2 per signature, up to as much as $5 per signature.

Trump, then, as an ostensible billionaire, could buy his way onto the ticket by outspending the competition on signatures, then getting those people — even registered Democrats and Republicans — a mail-in ballot to cast on his behalf.

“Getting on the ballot in those 29 states could cost $6 to $8 million,” Stone told the Wall Street Journal at the time. “I don’t think Pat’s got the table stakes,” he added, a reference to Buchanan.

In a text conversation with Salon, Stone credited Trump’s then-girlfriend Melania Knauss, now the first lady, as the one who foresaw Trump’s success and urged him to run in 2000. Trump, however, briefly ended his relationship with her during the campaign, causing a tabloid furor.

According to the New York Daily News, the breakup was an olive branch to socially conservative Reform Party leaders.

“An associate of the mogul suggested Trump decided to distance himself from Knauss after she posed nude in his plane,” the outlet said, adding that Stone denied there was a political calculus. 

After the breakup, the New York Times asked Trump, outside a party for his Miss USA pageant, if he thought it would be difficult to campaign without a significant other.

”Melania is an amazing woman, a terrific woman, a great woman” Trump said, looking as sincere as one could imagine Mr. Trump could look, ”and she will be missed.” Then he headed for a V.I.P. lounge where Ms. Pressler and several of her potential successors (and perhaps Ms. Knauss’s) were waiting.

Trump ended his Times op-ed, published the month after the breakup, by reflecting on the campaign as “one of my great life experiences.”

“I had enormous fun thinking about a presidential candidacy and count it as one of my great life experiences,” Trump said. “Although I must admit that it still doesn’t compare with completing one of the great skyscrapers of Manhattan, I cannot rule out another bid for the presidency in 2004,” he said.

The White House did not reply to Salon’s request for comment.

Cloud-based life? Scientists believe there may be alien microbes floating in Venus’ atmosphere

When looking around our solar system for bodies that could potentially harbor life, astrobiologists have generally focused on a few usual suspects: Mars, with its vast canyons, water deposits and mysterious methane emissions. Or Jupiter’s moon Europa, thought to be teeming with water. But for obvious reasons, Venus — an Earth-sized world with sulphuric acid clouds and hellacious surface temperatures — hasn’t been first of mind in terms of prospects for extraterrestrial life. 

Until today.

A new discovery made by an international group of scientists using powerful telescopes suggests that it is not otherworldly to believe that microbial life exists right now on the second planet from the Sun. In a paper published in Nature Astronomy, astronomers explain how they’ve detected the chemical phosphine (PH3), a molecule composed of phosphorus and hydrogen, in the upper atmosphere of Venus – and how that appears to be a “promising” sign of life.

“If no known chemical process can explain PH3 within the upper atmosphere of Venus, then it must be produced by a process not previously considered plausible for Venusian conditions,” the authors of the paper state. “This could be unknown photochemistry or geochemistry, or possibly life.” 

It’s that last word that really got people talking. Indeed, in an excited press conference today, scientists involved in the study explained how they struggled to find an alternative explanation besides microbial life, that would explain the presence of phosphine gas in the upper atmosphere of Venus. On Earth, phosphine is produced as a waste byproduct of anaerobic bacteria.

Scientists used the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) in Hawaii and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) telescope in Chile, both of which detect light in the wavelengths that can reveal the indelible spectral pattern of phosphine gas molecules. Both telescopes found evidence of phosphine gas only in the upper atmosphere of Venus, where conditions are decidedly cooler and less acidic than on the surface, and air pressures are similar to that of Earth’s atmosphere. 

At such high altitudes, Venusian winds circulate air in circular swaths as they move from the equator north towards the poles; such air circulation patterns are known as Hadley Cells, and exist on Earth, too, where they are responsible for the trade winds. As scientists explained in the press conference, it would be possible for small organisms, likely microbial, to circulate through these cells without succumbing to Venus’s inhospitable conditions lower (or higher) in the atmosphere. 

The idea that life might exist up in the hospitable clouds of Venus may be unexpected, though it is not unprecedented. On Earth, there are extremophiles — meaning forms of life adapted to harsh conditions — that live at similarly high altitudes under similar conditions.

Indeed, given what scientists know about Venus’ geochemistry, there does not yet appear to be another explanation for this foul gas aside from the possibility of microbial life floating high above the clouds.

William Bains, a co-author of the paper, explained in a blog post on his personal website that the team has tried to figure out over the last two years how a non-living process could produce phosphine in Venus’ atmosphere.

“We calculated the rate at which it [phosphine] might be produced by reaction of atmospheric gases with each other, with sulfur haze, with cloud droplets, with surface rocks,” Bains wrote. “There is no way that Venus can make phosphine, unless our understanding of Venus is seriously wrong.”

In a statement, Clara Sousa-Silva, a research scientist in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and co-author of the paper, wrote that the group of scientists “welcome” other astronomers to find ways to justify phosphine’s presence.

“Please do, because we are at the end of our possibilities to show abiotic [non-living] processes that can make phosphine,” Sousa-Silva said.

In the paper, scientists were optimistic but cautious about blatantly stating that there is life on Venus.

“Even if confirmed, we emphasize that the detection of PH3 is not robust evidence for life, only for anomalous and unexplained chemistry,” the authors write. “There are substantial conceptual problems for the idea of life in Venus’s clouds—the environment is extremely dehydrating as well as hyperacidic.”

But what else could it be? Certainly phosphine is difficult to produce chemically without life, but not impossible. Jonathan Lunine, who was not involved in the Nature study but is a professor of physical sciences and chair of the astronomy department at Cornell University, told Salon in an emailed statement that many chemical compounds occur as a result of non-biological processes. 

“Phosphine isn’t always a biosignature on other planets,” Lunine said. “It is found in the dense hydrogen-rich atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn, where it is understood to be an abiotic product of simple chemistry.”

Lunine said it’s important to consider the environment of the planet where one is using phosphine as a biosignature. But since Venus lacks hydrogen, it is possible.

“Venus—with an atmosphere in which hydrogen is extremely scarce—is a place where phosphine is a plausible biosignature,” Lunine said.

In an interview with Salon, Seth Shostak, a senior astronomer at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), told Salon the study is an “impressive piece of work,” noting how the scientists spent a lot of time with the spectral signatures which led to the discovery of phosphine. Shostak emphasized that it is not the discovery of phosphine that is “controversial,” but the interpretation of its source.

“Is it coming from floating bacteria or not?” Shostak asked. “And if it is, that’s a really, really, really important thing, because if there’s life on Venus despite the fact that Venus is a planetary toaster, then there’s gotta be life all over the place — because Venus isn’t the easiest environment” to survive in.

Shostak said that if life does exist on Venus, it likely didn’t originate in the clouds, but rather in the oceans that, scientists believe, likely existed on Venus a very long time ago.

“There are always some opportunistic critters, mostly microscopic, that can live in tough conditions, I mean you can find bacteria in the gas tanks of jet aircrafts, in new nuclear reactors,” he said. “So, once you get life going it can adapt to almost any kind of environment.”

Indeed, the philosophical implications of this finding could be greater than the science of it all, Shostak said.

“If you find life on the next planet over, you might say, ‘well, maybe we’re not all that special,'” Shostak added.

“This is Paris” is a quixotic redemption story about what it means to be a human and a brand at once

Paris Hilton is no dumb celebutante. Among the many misconceptions the Hilton heiress, ur-social media influencer and businesswoman is hoping will be cleared by the new biographical documentary “This Is Paris,” that may be the foremost.

Don’t let the infantile voice, the tuned-up smile, the vacuous catchphrases (“that’s hot”; “loves it”) overshadow the fact that she’s constructed a multi-million dollar brand attached to more than 19 products generating billions in worldwide sales.

Or that she commands a reported $1 million for each of her DJ gigs. Before the pandemic hit, she was spending nearly 70 percent of her time on the road promoting her makeup, her accessories, or headlining gigs. That’s not the work of a fool. On the contrary, Hilton refers to her “brand” countless times throughout the film, because the brand is who she is. The brand is quite literally her life.

And the documentary shows her coming to terms with the twinned notions of what it means to be a character and a brand, the quandary within knowing that they are one in the same, that they are who she is – and that may not easily square with who she wants to be anymore.

“On such a deeper level, I want to be known as an inspiration as not only a businesswoman, but someone who spreads love and light,” she told Salon in a one-on-one interview that took place earlier this year. “I have a voice and I want to use it in the right way and not in the way I had before.”

She adds, “I just feel that right now, especially with women, to be smart and intelligent and to show that off and to have a message is way more important than, you know, wearing pink and trying to be cute and playing dumb. Like, I don’t know. Sometimes I look back at some things and I’m just like, ‘Ugh. Paris, is this who you are?'”

This could interpreted as “Paris Hilton finally grows up.” This could also read as the simple wisdom of a simple rich girl. How you interpret depends on the voice you imagine Hilton using to speak those words and how you feel about Paris Hilton.

“This Is Paris” was supposed to hit YouTube in early spring after premiering at the Tribeca Film Festival in April, which is the reason why I was able to sit down for a conversation with Hilton in Pasadena in January, where she appeared as part of an industry event for the Television Critics Association. Prior to our one-on-one, though, I happened to run into Hilton in another part of the hotel, granting me a look at each of her faces. She smiled, assuming I recognized her, leaned in for an air kiss and said “hi there, sweetie” in her signature coo.

A few hours later, when we got down to business, Hilton sounded like a 39-year old woman with her head screwed firmly onto her shoulders. “This film, it’s actually who I really am,” she said. “It’s all real, it’s all very raw. It’s all very deep. And it was almost like a therapeutic experience because in the beginning of the film, I didn’t even really know who I was at that point. … Because I’ve just always been so used to, you know, speaking in the baby voice and saying, ‘that’s hot,’ and like doing this whole thing.”

Hilton went on to say, “Towards the end of the film was when I really started to realize who I am. I had a lot of epiphanies and realizations. I just realized that going through some very traumatic experiences in my life as a teenager shaped who I was and why I made up that character. And it was almost kind of like this mask to hide who I really was.”

The very existence of “This Is Paris” is a turn-off for a large swath of people, especially to anyone who lived through her tabloid heyday and decided a long time ago they’d seen more than enough of her. At one point in recent history she was one of the most popular women in America — famous for being famous and overexposed in all the wrong ways.

When she rose to the top the public’s consciousness as the co-star of “The Simple Life,” she was only 21 years old, and by then there was already a sex tape circulating that was released by an ex-boyfriend.

And while her peers and erstwhile best friends successfully pivoted to enjoy long careers on TV, Hilton’s star burned brightly and appeared to fade quickly. Her “Simple Life” co-star Nicole Richie went on to serve as a judge and host several non-scripted reality series, founded her own lifestyle brand and published two novels.

Kim Kardashian, seen in “This Is Paris” on Hilton’s arm before she soared into her own fame, credits Hilton for showing her the path to “breaking the Internet” by being a pioneering influencer, by originating the modern concept of the “selfie” by many reports, and by being the first person to truly turn her very existence into a marketing tool.

Few need to be reminded that Kardashian and her family parlayed their fame into a multifaceted empire worth billions; the announcement that “Keeping Up with the Kardashians” would finally come to an end after 20 seasons is proof that she’s succeeded. When Kardashian dove into prison reform advocacy, people took her seriously enough for Oxygen to air a special in April, “Kim Kardashian West: The Justice Project.”

Meanwhile, when Hilton attempted to launch her own series on Oxygen in 2011, “The World According to Paris,” its ratings were so poor that the cable channel quickly nixed it.

More recently in 2017, she caught flak for suggesting in a Marie Claire interview that the women accusing Donald Trump of sexual misconduct were “just trying to get attention and get fame.” (“Obviously I have a way different opinion now that I know everything I know,” she said to me when asked about that quote, “and I wish that they didn’t print something that was spoken before any of these accusations were even out. ‘Cause I wasn’t even aware of any of that.”)

But that doesn’t mean nobody is interested in buying what Hilton is selling; quite the opposite. That factor is what intrigued Dean about Hilton; the director of “Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story” has an enduring interest in women whose image either camouflages their rightful claim as innovators or buries it entirely. Lamarr, a star of Hollywood’s Golden Age, was also a gifted inventor, although most people remember her face more than her intellect.

Her work ethic and business acumen notwithstanding, “This Is Paris” isn’t apt to change the minds of any Paris Hilton detractors. But as a whole, it stands as a fascinating study of what happens when a human being’s personality is entirely subsumed by the construct she creates. The film itself reflects that: it takes 30 minutes of its 105-minute runtime to dig past the glamorous façade, in which Hilton reminds us of all that goes into carefully crafting her image — including the astonishing fact that she’s never been photographed in the same outfit twice.

Then, at the end of one night at an event in support of her skincare line, she collapses — and the crack appears. She has recurring nightmares and insomnia. She gets about three hours of sleep before she’s on to the next gig.

Later, in another of her filmed conversations, Hilton speaks in a normal tone, a very intimate sotto voce… but also vacillates between that and her baby voice without thinking about it. And it becomes apparent that Hilton can’t entirely control the character of Paris Hilton. Her baby voice doubles as a verbal tic, as in a sequence when she talks about losing her family’s trust after breaking curfew and parading through the New York nightclub scene in the late ’90s.

“There was no convincing them, no matter what I said,” Hilton explains in her normal voice, her face registering a profound discomfort and sadness as she tells most of her story. But as she continues, shades of that “character” she’s shown the world kick in. “It made me not trust anyone,” she said, her voice retreating into the little girl figure as she finishes, “not even my own family.”

The hook buried deep within “This Is Paris” is the traumatic episode in her past which she believes shaped the person she is today: an 11-month stay at Provo Canyon School, a psychiatric residential treatment center in Utah where her parents Kathy and Rick Hilton sent Paris in an effort to quell her teenage rebelliousness.

As Hilton recalls in the movie, this was the last of many “emotional growth schools” to which her parents sent Paris in an effort to shape her into a more respectable representative of the family.

“Fear, to me, is the most powerful feeling there is – fear,” Kathy says in the film, explaining her frustration with Paris’ unofficial debut as a New York Club kid. Inadvertently, fear was the bitter medicine her daughter says she received as these schools. Hilton recalls running away from one and being beaten in front of other kids as a warning to show what happens to kids who try to escape.

At Provo Canyon School, she says she verbally and physically abused and fed an assortment of pills. When she refused to take them she was locked in solitary confinement without clothing for up to 20 hours at a time. Dean captures the moment that Kathy is made aware of what actually happened at the place she sent Paris, which she believed to be a boarding school for troubled teens. Kathy Hilton appears to be genuinely shocked. That story, Hilton explains in the documentary, was never intended to be a part of the brand.

Hilton has shared her allegations about Provo Canyon widely in recent weeks as part of the promotional runway leading up to the launch of “This Is Paris,” which is an interesting tactic given the secrecy she insisted upon during her junket appearance – she refused to comment on it directly, saving it for the film’s release. This, too, speaks to her hyper-awareness of her brand, while also calling attention to how that obsession plays into the perceived genuineness of “This Is Paris.”

For while Hilton’s insistence that Dean’s portrayal of her is real, unfiltered, and that she had zero editorial control, what comes through beyond all doubt in the film is that Hilton’s entirely life is one long span of editing. There are times early on in the film when Dean instructs Hilton stop attempting to perfect her walks down a hallway, to simply move like herself. But what happens when your entire day, from the moment you wake up, is spent assuming that somewhere there is a lens capturing every move?

Rare are the moments when we see Hilton in a state that the average person would think of as “natural” and “unpracticed.” However, there’s no indication — in every shift and pose when she’s not onstage — that she isn’t being her version of honest and normal. It’s unsettling and also more than a little sad.

This, too, may be a new addition to the brand.

“When I look around my life, like… it’s like a cartoon,” she huffs frustratedly near the ending of the film, during one of those epiphanies she speaks of, lines delivered while standing in the center of her enormous walk-in closet. “I don’t… it’s like, I’ve created this fantasy world cartoon. The thing is, I don’t really give a f—k about any of these things… I love just chilling in, like, my sweat suit, my socks, being at home. And then all of this other stuff is part of the character.”

This cuts to a few moments later when we see her bouncing down her stairs and greeting a few guests waiting for her below, cheerily cooing in that signature baby voice: “Heeey.”

“This Is Paris” is now streaming on YouTube.

Massive numbers of birds are dying in New Mexico and no one knows why

A new report reveals that large and “unprecedented” numbers of migratory birds are mysteriously dying in New Mexico, with ominous implications for the environment as a whole.

This was the conclusion reached by biologists from New Mexico State University and White Sands Missile Range after they studied the corpses of almost 300 migratory birds on Saturday, according to the Las Cruces Sun News. The impacted species include blackbirds, flycatchers, sparrows, swallows, warblers and the western wood pewee. The first group of dead birds were spotted at White Sands Missile Range and at the White Sands National Monument in August. This was followed by further reports of unexplained mass bird deaths in Doña Ana County, Jemez Pueblo, Roswell, Socorro and elsewhere in New Mexico.

Professor Martha Desmond of the college’s Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Ecology expressed deep concern about what the sudden deaths of these birds portends for the environment.

“It is terribly frightening,” Desmond told the Sun News. “We’ve never seen anything like this. … We’re losing probably hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of migratory birds.”

She added that “a number of these species are already in trouble. They are already experiencing huge population declines and then to have a traumatic event like this is – it’s devastating.”

Desmond speculated that the deaths may have been caused by the wildfires that have devastated California and Oregon over the past few weeks. She suggested that the birds “may have been pushed out before they were ready to migrate,” pointing out that birds have to store fat in order to survive each leg of their migration journey and could have died because they were not able to do so.

Trish Cutler, a wildlife biologist at the White Sands Missile Range, joined Desmond on Saturday in announcing the news and reported that staff at her facility had noticed odd behavior from the birds.

“People have been reporting that the birds look sleepy … they’re just really lethargic,” Cutler said. “One thing we’re not seeing is our resident birds mixed in with these dead birds. We have resident birds that live here, some of them migrate and some of them don’t, but we’re not getting birds like roadrunners or quail or doves.”

Individuals who find deceased birds in the New Mexico area are encouraged to note their findings in this iNaturalist database.

Jeff Opperman, Global Freshwater Lead Scientist at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), spoke to Salon about the loss of species last week after the WWF released a report revealing that population sizes of “mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish” have fallen by 68 percent since 1970. The WWF’s report preceded the release of the findings about New Mexico’s birds, but Opperman spoke more broadly about the larger declines in animal populations that have occurred over the past few decades.

“Our planet is sending alarm signals between recent wildfires, the COVID-19 pandemic, and other extreme weather events,” Opperman told Salon. “We’re seeing our broken relationship with nature play out in our own backyards. The steep global decline of wildlife populations is a key indicator that ecosystems are in peril. Healthy ecosystems provide a range of benefits to humans like clean water, clean air, a stable climate, flood protection, and pollination of food crops. When populations decline and ecosystems begin to unravel so does nature’s ability to support human health and livelihoods.”

Russian state hackers are accused of trying to infiltrate Biden’s campaign firm

A campaign advisory firm that was hired to help elect Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden was targeted by suspected Russian state-backed hackers, according to a recent report.

Microsoft Corp. recently alerted the Washington-based firm SKDKnickerbocker that its staff had been targeted by individuals believed to have been affiliated with Russian hacking networks, according to Reuters. A person familiar with the hacking attempts told the wire agency that “they are well-defended, so there has been no breach.” Microsoft also warned that both the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns are being targeted by hackers backed by China, Iran and Russia.

SKDKnickerbocker is a prominent Washington campaign firm whose partner, Anita Dunn, is a senior strategist for Biden’s campaign. It is responsible for efforts like “Vote Safe California,” a $35 million campaign to increase voter turnout in the upcoming presidential election.

A spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the accusations as “nonsense.”

“Over the past number of years, there’s been significant evidence documented in the Senate Intelligence Committee’s bipartisan report and numerous other places, including the 17 intelligence agencies, that Russia infiltrated our elections in the 2016 race and was continuing to do that throughout not only the 2018 elections, but also into the 2020 election,” Aaron Scherb, the director of legislative affairs at the government watchdog group Common Cause, told Salon. “And so it’s no surprise at all that this new evidence was revealed recently about their involvement in trying to hack the Biden campaign.”

There is evidence that Russian state-sponsored hackers previously infiltrated prominent Democratic Party officials’ emails amid the 2016 election. While a special counsel report did not charge President Trump himself with actively colluding with the Russian government, the investigation became politicized as a “witch hunt” by Republican Party officials and by the president himself. 

Lindsay Gorman, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, feared that this hacking attempt would become similarly politicized. “Politicization in this arena directly undermines our democracy,” Gorman told Salon. 

“Given the tactics we saw in 2016, it should come as no surprise that Russia would be interested in targeting a firm tied to a political campaign,” Gorman added. “It’s important to note though that for the foreign actors we worry about in the context of cyber-espionage and organizations relevant to US policymaking, a range of motives may be at play…. For example, we don’t know yet whether these cyber attempts on campaign-related infrastructure are part of a larger election interference plot or simply a means to gather intelligence on prospective future US policy should a particular candidate be elected in November.”

While Russia’s attempts to meddle in US elections in the past four years have caused widespread political outrage and led to investigations such as Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation, the United States also has a long history of meddling in other countries’ elections. There were 62 occasions between 1946 and 1989, the height of the Cold War, when America intervened through direct or covert methods (or both) in other countries’ elections. In 1948, for instance, America’s foreign policy apparatus intervened in Italy’s parliamentary elections to help Rome’s pro-Western government defeat the Popular Front, a leftist alliance of parties. American intelligence officials have freely admitted to influencing or even controlling media outlets, funding candidates and engaging in other electioneering activity in order to thwart politicians who were perceived as pro-Communist or simply not as friendly to perceived American interests.

“If you ask an intelligence officer, did the Russians break the rules [in 2016] or do something bizarre, the answer is no, not at all,” Steven L. Hall, a retired CIA intelligence operative, previously told the New York Times in a 2018 interview. Hall said that he “hope[d]” that the United States would “keep doing it,” by which he meant carry out out “election influence operations.”

Oracle to partner with TikTok after Trump forces social media app to sell off US operations

Oracle, the California-based computer technology corporation, announced Monday that it will serve as a business partner, or “trusted technology provider,” for the Chinese social media app TikTok. The ownership of TikTok has become politicized lately over unproven beliefs that the company shuttles private user information to the Chinese Communist Party, an assertion that President Trump appears to buy into and which administrative officials say motivated him to sign an executive order that would force TikTok to divest its assets in the United States and relinquish data it had gathered in the US.

The news about Oracle partnering with TikTok broke shortly after Microsoft announced that it had been unable to close a deal to purchase the app’s US operations. In a statement released on Sunday night, Microsoft explained that ByteDance, the company which owns TikTok, had informed them that they did not wish to follow through on a widely-discussed acquisition, though Microsoft insist that “we are confident our proposal would have been good for TikTok’s users, while protecting national security interests.”

Neither Oracle nor TikTok elaborated on the nature of their arrangement, including whether or not it involves Oracle outright purchasing the company or striking some kind of partnership with them. Oracle itself has strong financial and legislative ties with two congressional Republicans close to the Trump administration, Sen. Steve Daines and Rep. Greg Gianforte, both from Montana.

TikTok has faced fire from the Trump administration since July, when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hinted that Trump was thinking of taking action against TikTok and declared that Americans should only use the short-form video app “if you want your private information in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.” Pompeo made these remarks shortly after TikTok users embarrassed the president by leading a successful campaign to reserve hundreds of thousands of tickets for a Trump rally in Tulsa, which caused the president’s campaign to significantly overestimate their anticipated attendance and left most of the stadium empty.

Although experts agree that there is a risk that China’s government is collecting information about Americans through TikTok, Trump did not begin acting against TikTok until the Tulsa rally incident. That move came in August, when Trump announced that he was banning TikTok. Shortly after this was announced, Microsoft announced that it wished to purchase the US operations arm of the company, which would allow it to continue to be used in the United States. Trump agreed to this but said that Microsoft had until Sept. 15 to make this happen, later adding that he thought the government should get a cut of whatever deal would be struck between the two companies.

“It’s a little bit like the landlord/tenant; without a lease the tenant has nothing, so they pay what’s called ‘key money,’ or they pay something,” Trump said in August. “But the United States should be reimbursed or should be paid a substantial amount of money, because without the United States they don’t have anything.”

Leonard M. Niehoff, a professor at the University of Michigan Law School who specializes in the First Amendment, told Salon in August that he was concerned Trump’s decision to ban TikTok violated free speech rights.

“One of the primary concerns is that this is part of a pattern of retaliation against social media platforms that the president does not like, either because of how the platform has treated his speech or because of how users have deployed the platform against him.”

He added, “a central tenet of the First Amendment is that the government cannot retaliate against speech or speakers based on content or viewpoint. That was, in my view, quite clearly the motive behind the executive order that came out after Trump’s dispute with Twitter. The question is whether the targeting of TikTok is in the same category.”

Niehoff referred to Twitter because, after the social media platform included a fact-check label on two of the president’s tweets, he retaliated by signing an executive order that could increase Twitter’s potential future liability based on content posted by its users.

“The threat by Donald Trump to shut down social media platforms that he finds objectionable is a dangerous overreaction by a thin-skinned president. Any such move would be blatantly unconstitutional under the First Amendment,” Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe told Salon by email at the time. “That doesn’t make the threat harmless, however, because the president has many ways in which he can hurt individual companies, and his threat to do so as a way of silencing dissent is likely to chill freedom of expression and will undermine constitutional democracy in the long run.”

Michel Franco’s dystopian drama “New Order” is an electrifying cattle prod to the nether regions

Director Michel Franco’s film, “New Order,” a stinging indictment on economic inequality, is electrifying — like a cattle prod to the nether regions. That vivid image is actually seen in one of the many disturbing sequences in this mesmerizing drama that received its North American premiere at the Toronto Film Festival this past week. 

The film’s opening minutes are full of arresting images including a tracking shot of nude and bloodied bodies. An early, chaotic sequence has patients being removed from their beds in a hospital. Cut to an elegant home where the blonde, 25-year-old Marianne (Naian González Norvind) is about to marry Alan (Dario Yazbek Bernal), a handsome young architect. Her mother Rebeca (Lisa Owen) circulates among the crowd and grows concerned when the bathroom tap has green water flowing from the spigot. A guest soon arrives splattered by green paint. Everyone is politely trying to act like everything is fine, but protesters are creating traffic jams and streets are being blocked off. The situation in the outside world is making the judge late.

As the minidramas unfold, the house staff, which include Cristian (Fernando Cuautle) and his mother Marta (Mónica Del Carmen), try to maintain a sense of order. But “New Order” is about shaking things up. Franco peppers his film with jolts that will keep viewers both glued to the screen and completely unsettled. 

The drama really begins when Rolando (Eligio Meléndez), a former employee of the family’s, arrives at the home and asks Rebeca for 200,000 pesos. His wife Elisa needs an emergency heart valve operation and he does not even have a credit card to pay for it. Rebeca rounds up 35,000 pesos and asks Rolando to leave. When Marianne learns of the situation, she asks Cristian to go with her to help Rolando. 

Franco uses this pivotal episode as a comment on the elite. Some folks wonder if Rolando is shaking down his former employer; that Elisa is neither sick nor dying. But Marianne shows how the youth of the upper class can be bleeding-heart liberals who feel ennobled that they are doing the right thing. 

Shortly after Marianne leaves — and Rebeca and others wonder where she is — the wedding party is taken over by invaders. The maids pause from looting their employers to cross themselves as guns are discharged and bodies pile up. The house is ransacked, and spray painted with the words “putos rico” (use Google to translate). Chaos reigns, and rioting is rampant. The transformation from elegant party to police state with a curfew is swift and definitive. Franco films “New Order” in such a concise, urgent, impactful way that one can only marvel at how he pulled it off. TV screens show the anarchic atmosphere while the outside world has changed, possibly forever. 

Anyone who thought Marianne was foolish to leave her wedding, however, should not also think she was lucky to escape. While Cristian seeks to protect her, their journey is fraught with danger. “New Order” includes a telling moment when Marianne enters Cristian’s house briefly, and looks around, expressing her quiet surprise at how he lives. The bubble she inhabits, the film insists without a word, is far removed from the real world. And then things get worse; the next morning, Marianne is offered an escort home by soldiers, who take her instead to a detention center where the cries of people being tortured provide the soundscape. 

Franco shrewdly does not shy away from depicting some of the more unpleasant and humiliating things Marianne encounters while held hostage. Her despair throughout is palpable in her expressions and body language. She can barely contain herself to make a ransom video. The soldiers call her “blondie,” a symbol of their disdain for her class. Viewers may be aghast as these upsetting scenes unfold. But this unflinching film is full of shocking, jarring moments. Whenever a character seeks help or tries to be helpful, rescues someone or is rescued, it puts them in peril and may end their life. Franco takes no sides, which is the brilliance of his film. He is asking audiences where their sympathies lie: with the abused underclass who are now behaving despicably and murderously towards the privileged, or the wealthy “white” victims who enslave others?

“New Order” chronicles how the rich and the poor both try to survive in this new, dystopian world where there is a point system, work permits, and other forms of social control. Marianne’s brother Daniel (Diego Boneta) makes a determined effort to find her. Cristian and Marta are unwittingly involved in helping the abductors secure Marianne’s ransom from her family. Alan and his mother, Pilar (Patricia Bernal), try to maintain a semblance of how things used to be. What happens with Rolando and Elisa is also revealed. 

Franco is relentless in his approach and offers no easy answers to a very timely situation. He coaxes superb performances out of his ensemble cast; many of the actors are at times simply expressionless as the horrors unfold around them. And visually, his compositions are bold, if brutal. One indelible scene features the victims of a firing squad being set on fire. 

“New Order” is not for the squeamish. But this provocative, discomfiting film, is not to be missed.

“A deer doesn’t look like a human”: Republican attorney general involved in fatal South Dakota crash

When South Dakota Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg reported that he “hit a deer,” what he actually hit was 55-year-old Joe Boever and his family members are demanding answers.

According to the Rapid City Journal, details are thin after Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) briefed the public on the hit-and-run incident where the attorney general struck a person on his way back from a Republican Party event around 10:30 p.m. Saturday.

A release from the Department of Public Safety doesn’t say if Ravnsborg stopped his car to confirm that he hit a deer and look at the damage to his car.

Bloomberg News reported that Ravnsborg swears that he wasn’t drinking at the event and he called 911 immediately after hitting the man.

“Ravnsborg has received six traffic tickets for speeding in South Dakota over the last six years. He also received tickets for a seat belt violation and for driving a vehicle without a proper exhaust and muffler system,” the report also said.

But the victim’s family is demanding justice.

“A deer doesn’t look like a human,” said Boever’s cousin, former state Rep. Nick Nemec (D-SD), according to the Dickinson Press. “My cousin got run over by the Attorney General.”

Nemec said that he went with his brother to identify Boever’s body on Sunday evening, about 20 hours after the incident occurred.

“We’ve got questions why it took so long to contact us,” Nemec said. “Was our cousin laying dead on the highway for nearly a day while they were investigating? I don’t know.”

Nemec heard Ravnsborg’s apology and said that it “irritated the hell” out of him.

“He offered his condolences to the family of the victim before they even knew who the victim was,” he said. “I saw that statement sometime Sunday afternoon, at kind of the same time we were coming to the realization that the victim was our cousin, and he already offered a statement of condolences to the family, and he didn’t even know who the family was, because we hadn’t identified the body yet.”

Nemec recalled that on Saturday, Boever said he hit a hay bale with his white Ford pickup on Highway 14, damaging it. He thinks that his cousin was “probably walking back to the pickup from his home in Highmore when he was struck by Ravnsborg.”

“All I can think of, was Joe decided to walk back out to his pickup and straighten the bumper himself,” he said.

Read the full interview at The Dickinson Press.

The “sad desk lunch” is now even more depressing as employees return to the pandemic-era office

The Tumblr “Sad Desk Lunch” hasn’t been updated since 2015, but the images featured still feel familiar enough: a wheat English muffin covered in a single slice microwave-singed white American cheese, week-old salmon eaten cold from an aluminum foil packet, a single turkey burger served in a coffee filter because the office kitchen ran out of paper plates. 

Going out to lunch had already been something of a dying tradition. As the Wall Street Journal reported in 2017, Americans made 433 million fewer trips to restaurants at lunchtime compared to the prior year, the lowest level of lunch traffic in at least four decades. There are several reasons for this — post-recession frugality, a widening gap between the cost of eating out versus supermarket items, more employees working from home, the ever-shrinking line that divides work/life balance and increasing pressure to always be on the clock. 

Regardless of the reasons, the “sad desk lunch” is an obvious byproduct — enough so that food publications like Bon Appetit have compiled multiple guides to eating a better “lunch al desko” — and it’s only becoming more depressing as employees begin to work out the safest ways to eat in a pandemic-era office, and as restaurants in business districts struggle to survive

Danny Groner works in public relations for SquareFoot, a New York City-based commercial real estate company that helps companies find office space that fits their needs. In July, he returned to his office. Typically there are 59 employees working from assigned desks, but due to social distancing requirements, they are down to 27. 

Groner said there have been other changes around the office, like the closure of their communal kitchen. 

“We usually have two refrigerators here — one that is stocked with free LaCroix and other beverages, and one that is a communal fridge for people, like me, to put their lunches in,” Groner said. “Those refrigerators are off-limits right now. So, when I’m packing my lunch for that day, I have to put things in bags that don’t need refrigeration. That actually really narrows the scope of what you can bring — it’s a lot of peanut butter and jelly.” 

Nick Holmes, a Louisville-based employee who works in design and construction, went back to work in May. He used to spend his lunch hour with his office-mates, but now he spends it alone in his car. 

“Every day I eat lunch in the parking lot, in my car, in my own air. It’s not a bad view, there are some fields and forests to look at and NPR to listen to,” Holmes said. “I pack a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, some chips, a granola bar, and an apple every day. It’s a lunch more practical than pleasurable, reminiscent of an elementary school field trip, but it is comforting and predictable.” 

The sad lunch isn’t just about missing an element of one’s work routine — though that’s a valid feeling as many of us are grieving for the loss of normalcy and predictability in our day-to-day lives. Underpinning the observations around how work lunches are changing is a bigger-picture analysis of the ways in which office morale will be impacted as more employees return to work. 

“I think the absence of shared lunches with coworkers has made the biggest difference post-COVID,” Holmes said. “It feels like we are a little less cohesive as a group, and maybe it’s partly the economic strain on our business, but I think the absence of shared food makes us feel less secure in our positions.” 

Holmes described his lunch hour with colleagues as a place where they could let loose a little and share their “real-life personalities” and give insight into who they were outside of the office. 

“I believe that without this bonding we are less confident in our roles within the office,” he said. 

In contrast, the pandemic is also causing office designers and businesses to consider the practicality of communal eating spaces. According to Groner, it’s still too early to know what the next iteration of offices being built post-pandemic will look like, but the SquareFoot office currently has tape over the kitchen entrance asking employees to refrain from entering. 

He recalls speaking with a client in April 2019 about a build-out she envisioned for her office.

“I remember this client talking specifically about wanting to put an island in, in addition to the little kitchenette area, because she recognized in their previous office, that this was one of the little sparks of joy for the team, to be able to have a place that they can pull up away from their desk to be able to sit together,” Groner said. 

“So, I definitely think that these build-outs with a focus on kitchens are going to go away,” he continued. 

Groner said he obviously doesn’t see offices taking on extreme measures like banning communal refrigerators and coffee stations. 

“But I do think, to your point, people are starting to rethink, ‘Hey, we don’t have to dedicate 500 square feet to this area — what can we do with that additional 500 square feet?'” he said. “And I think what that’s going to go towards is additional social distancing, where everybody can spread out a little bit more.” 

Both Groner and Holmes describe missing going out for the occasional lunch. “I have always been told that buying lunch for a potential client is the best investment you can make,” Groner said. 

But restaurants in business districts have been hit especially hard by the pandemic, as most non-essential workers transitioned out of their offices to working from home. Allison Casale, the co-owner of Another Place Sandwich Shop in Louisville, Ky., described that as an immediate slash to her business’ bottom line. 

“From last year from June 1 to August 31 — so the entirety of summer from 2019 compared to 2020 — we’re down 70% in number of transactions,” Casale said. 

There are days that she only sells five sandwiches. 

She says that there are several contributing factors. Tourism is down because of the pandemic, and her restaurant is just a few blocks away from Jefferson Square Park, where protesters have been holding daily gatherings in response to the death of Breonna Taylor. The protests have been largely nonviolent, but unfounded rumors of riots have caused surrounding businesses to board up their windows and doors. 

But office closures have had the biggest impact on her business; Downtown Louisville is largely commercial, so there isn’t much foot traffic these days, and many large companies located there — including Humana Inc. — haven’t determined an exact date for when they will be operating with a full staff in-office. 

“Our regulars, as they do come back in to work at the nearby museums or law firms, we ask them all the time, ‘What’s the building at?'” Casale said. “‘What is the population back at?’ And for the most part, it’s only about 30%.” 

When asked how long Another Place Sandwich Shop could stay open at this current level of business, Casale’s response was frank: “Not very long.” 

She was able to get a small business grant to cover some of the expenses of the shop, as well as her other business, a jazz club called Jimmy Can’t Dance. That should last for about six months and during that time, she plans on saving as much money as she can to hopefully make it until the spring. 

“Hopefully, there’s tourism that starts back in the spring or in the summer,” she said. “And if there isn’t, then we would be completely reliant on our government  — whether that’s city, state, federal — to support. And if there was no tourism to return at all next summer, well, we would close for sure.” 

 

Federal official who interfered with CDC reports on COVID-19 has deep ties to Russia: report

On September 11, Politico reported that Michael Caputo, assistant secretary for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, interfered in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s reports on COVID-19 in order to make them conform to President Donald Trump’s claims about the pandemic. And Caputo, journalist Mary Papenfuss reports in HuffPost, is drawing scrutiny for another reason as well: his ties to the Kremlin.

Caputo, Papenfuss notes, lived in Russia for six years and served as an adviser to former Russian President Boris Yeltsin from 1995-1999 before Vladimir Putin became Russia’s president. The HHS assistant secretary was an adviser to a subsidiary of Gazprom, an energy company owned by the Russian government — and Papenfuss points out that Caputo “reportedly helped shore up Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reputation.”

“Caputo’s Kremlin ties were so concerning that he became a target of former special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election,” Papenfuss explains. “He was questioned but was not charged with any offenses. He also testified before the House Intelligence Committee that he had no contact with Russians while serving on the Trump campaign.”

Caputo, a long-time ally of veteran GOP operative Roger Stone, has promoted the debunked conspiracy theory that it was the Ukrainian government, not the Kremlin, that interfered in the 2016 presidential election — and that the interference was in support of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, not Trump. Papenfuss notes that Caputo “has spread baseless accusations concerning activities in Ukraine by Joe and Hunter Biden. A key source of that Ukrainian smear, Andrii Derkach, turned out to be a Russian spy attempting to interfere in the current U.S. election, the Treasury Department revealed last week.”

During Trump’s impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate, Trump denounced the impeachment as “phony” — and he was also highly critical of the Russia investigation.

The Mueller report says of Caputo, “In the spring of 2016, Trump campaign advisor Michael Caputo learned through a Florida-based Russian business partner that another Florida-based Russian, Henry Oknyansky — who also went by the name Henry Greenberg — claimed to have information pertaining to Hilary Clinton. Caputo notified Roger Stone and brokered communication between Stone and Oknyansky. Oknyansky and Stone set up a May 2016 in-person meeting.”

Mike Pompeo’s wife asked senior State Department aides to help send personal holiday cards: emails

When Secretary of State Mike Pompeo‘s wife used a private email account to ask senior State Department officials to help the couple finish sending out their personal holiday cards, she made it clear that the request should not be shared beyond a small, private group.

“I see that you are out of the office all next week,” Susan Pompeo wrote State Department senior adviser Toni Porter from her personal email address on Dec. 19, 2019. “Do you know, is Joe also out? I’m wondering if we are sending the last of our personal cards out, who will be there to help me. Mike will not want to go outside you and Joe for this assistance.”

Porter, who has served as an aide to Pompeo since he represented Kansas as a House Republican, forwarded the email to Lisa Kenna, a career employee serving as State Department executive secretary. Though Kenna offered to help, she told Porter that she would “worry about asking others for personal things.”

The emails, obtained by McClatchy, show the Pompeo family knowingly directing State Department employees to help it personal tasks on government time. Such actions were the subject of a probe by the department inspector general’s office.

In May, Pompeo asked Trump to fire Inspector General Steve Linick, reportedly because he began looking into allegations that the secretary and his wife had assigned State Department employees with executing personal tasks. An acting inspector general who replaced Linick resigned in August.

Initial reports following Linick’s sacking revealed that his office had been investigating the possible misuse of government resources, such as allegations that Pompeo had compelled an aide to walk his dog at taxpayer expense and handle dinner reservations for his family. 

NBC News later revealed that the Pompeos had hosted lavish, taxpayer-funded “Madison Dinners” at department headquarters, featuring CEOs, Fox News personalities and Republican megadonors alongside foreign dignitaries.

While it is unclear whether Linick was investigating the dinners, which Pompeo suspended in March amid the coronavirus pandemic, they became the subject of a congressional probe.

Before his ouster, Linick was also preparing to interview Pompeo in connection with an investigation into an $8 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia. In congressional testimony, Linick confirmed the existence of three additional, previously-unreported investigations — one possibly involving workplace violence — adding that each involved “the Office of the Secretary in some way.”

Both aides included in the holiday card emails were asked last month about the possible abuse of taxpayer-backed resources in a closed-door hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

In a transcript of that hearing, published Friday, Porter testified that the personal requests had made her uncomfortable. She also acknowledged that Pompeo’s wife sends requests of her from a private email account.

(Porter named “Joe” as Joe Semrad, assistant to the secretary, who handled personal requests when she could not.)

Kenna, a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, said she had done personal work for Mrs. Pompeo’s overseas travel.

“It is not a revelation that Mrs. Pompeo, like all the spouses of our dedicated diplomats, is a tremendous force multiplier for our diplomatic mission,” the State Department said in a statement provided to McClatchy. “We are beyond proud and honored to have Mrs. Pompeo, and all diplomatic spouses, give so much time, voluntarily, to ensure we here at State are One Team with One Mission. All her service is not only legal, but admirable.”

Fox News host confronts Trump surrogate over failed attack on Biden’s health: “It’s not working”

Trump campaign communications director Erin Perrine insisted on Monday that attacks on Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s mental health are working despite a Fox News polls that found voters have a lower opinion of President Donald Trump’s mental capacity.

Fox News host Sandra Smith spoke to Perrine about the tactic after Trump railed against Biden’s mental fitness at a Sunday rally.

“Seeing how this is not working in President Trump’s favor in the polls, why stick with this message?” the Fox News host wondered.

“I would argue that it is working in the polls,” Perrine replied. “President Trump, in that Fox poll, is at his strongest standing since going against Joe Biden and has cut Joe Biden’s lead by 7 points in that poll.”

In response, Smith noted that the same Fox News polls found that voters are more concerned about unemployment, the COVID-19 pandemic and crime.

“These are huge issues for voters,” Smith continued. “So why make Joe Biden’s alleged cognitive decline a centerpiece of Trump’s reelection campaign?”

“It certainly a question the American people need to ask,” Perrine insisted. “Listen, if there’s a crisis in the world, it’s 3 in the morning, who do you want answering the phone at the White House? President Trump, who has an incredibly strong foreign policy record delivering for the American people, protecting people or Joe Biden, whose own campaign couldn’t even make a declarative statement on whether or not he uses a teleprompter for interviews. That’s a serious question for the American people and we’re going to ask it!”

Smith went on to point out that Trump has recently escalated his attack by accusing Biden of using performance enhancing drugs.

“I mentioned it’s not working for him in the polls,” Smith said. “But when do you decide that that’s not working and pivot back to the election, pivot back to Americans’ safety, pivot back to getting people back to work — and millions of people are still without jobs.”

“We are talking about everything,” Perrine responded. “The president is asking questions and Joe Biden should answer them.”

Watch the video below from Fox News:

Michael Moore calls Trump “mass killer” after COVID-19 response kills more Americans than bin Laden

The COVID-19 coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, has killed more than 924,000 people worldwide — and at least 194,000 of those deaths are in the United States. The fact that the U.S. has become the COVID-19 hotspot of the world isn’t lost on liberal/progressive filmmaker and activist Michael Moore, who slammed President Donald Trump as a “mass killer” on his Sept. 11 podcast for handling the crisis so badly.

Moore posted the podcast on the 19th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which killed almost 3,000 people in the U.S. The COVID-19 pandemic, Moore stressed, has been much deadlier for Americans.

“My friends, this is murder in the extreme,” Moore told listeners. “No American other than Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his general, Robert E. Lee, has killed more Americans than Donald J. Trump.”

In defense of his coronavirus response, Trump has said that no one could have known how deadly COVID-19 would be in the U.S. But veteran journalist/author Bob Woodward — famous for his reporting on Watergate with Carl Bernstein at the Washington Post during the 1970s — reports, in his new book, “Rage,” that Trump was well-aware of the dangers that U.S. was facing when he publicly downplayed its severity. During a February 7 conversation, Trump told Woodward that COVID-19 was “more deadly” than “even your strenuous flus.”

More than 600,000 Americans were killed in the Civil War during the 1860s. Moore, discussing how much deadlier the coronavirus pandemic could become in the U.S., noted, “We’ve been told by the White House Task Force itself, this could get to 400,000 (dead) by Christmas.”

On September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda members hijacked four airplanes — crashing two of them into the World Trade Center in New York City and one into the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. A fourth plane went down in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Making a Trump/Osama bin Laden comparison, Moore noted that Trump “didn’t actually kill” any victims of COVID-19 “with his own hands” but added, “I can tell you for a fact that Osama Bin Laden did not fly a single one of those goddamn airplanes. So, he’s innocent? No. Trump is a mass killer.”

Trump escalates the signals to his followers: Use lethal violence to help me hold power

Well, that escalated quickly. Only a couple of weeks ago, Donald Trump and his allies were using the term “self-defense” to condone the behavior of armed right-wingers who showed up at Black Lives Matter protests to intimidate demonstrators — and also to justify the alleged murder of two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin, by 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse.

Now Trump has expanded the universe of excuses for such lethal violence, suggesting that it’s acceptable in the name of “retribution.”

In this case, the lethal violence was inflicted on Michael Reinoehl, a self-identified supporter of antifa, which isn’t an organized movement so much as a loose association of left-wing activists who use confrontational tactics to fight perceived fascists. Most people who identify as antifa aren’t violent, but some have become enamored of seeking violent confrontations with far-right or white supremacist groups. Reinoehl appears to have been such a person: He seemingly confessed on camera to killing a right-wing activist named Aaron Danielson during an Aug. 29 skirmish in Portland, Oregon.

U.S. marshals shot and killed Reinoehl near Olympia, Washington, on Sept. 3, and justified the shooting by claiming he had pulled a gun, which at least one witness says is not true. But when Trump discussed the killing, he didn’t even bother with the usual talk about how it was necessary to protect the officers from harm. Instead, he claimed it was justified as “retribution.” And because Trump loves to play-act being a tough guy while avoiding all difficult decisions, he tried to take personal credit for ordering Reinoehl’s death. 

“Two and a half days went by and I put out, when are you going to go get him?” Trump bragged to Fox News host Jeanine Pirro. “That’s the way it has to be. There has to be retribution when you have crime like this.”

Retribution: That’s how Trump sees this killing. Not, as law enforcement claims, a necessary self-defense action in the course of trying to apprehend a criminal suspect. Trump seems to understand this this as one faction getting revenge on a rival faction for the murder of one of their own.

That’s even more alarming when you consider that Aaron Danielson, the man killed in Portland, had no connection to law enforcement. He was a member of Patriot Prayer, a militia-style group whose main purpose is to descend on progressive communities, mostly Portland and Seattle, to troll local residents and try to provoke street fights with antifa and other left-wing activists. With this talk of “retribution”, Trump is explicitly linking law enforcement paid for by taxpayers with extralegal militias. Effectively, the president views them as part of the same faction and in opposition to antifa, a group Trump regularly — and falsely — conflates with progressives and Democrats generally. 

At first blush, it would seem unwise for Trump and his far-right allies to justify killing Reinoehl by invoking the logic of gangland murders. Trump and his supporters have sought to celebrate Danielson as a martyr, and his death is being leveraged for maximum propaganda value, as “proof” of the supposed outbreak of leftist violence that, in turn, justifies violent assaults from the right. One would think that capturing Reinoehl alive so he could be tried in court would have aided this propaganda campaign, creating a show trial that would enable the telling and retelling of the fable of Danielson’s martyrdom.  

But there is another, deeper purpose to this “retribution” talk. For one thing, it encourages police and right-wing militias to see themselves on the same “team,” hastening a process that was already well underway, as evidenced by the cordial treatment Rittenhouse and other militia types got from police on the night he shot three people in Kenosha.

For another, Trump is signaling to his followers that they don’t even need to wait for a semi-plausible “self-defense” situation to justify using violent force to silence leftists. Instead, he’s trying to redefine what constitute “legitimate” reasons for his followers to use violence. 

He kept up the excuse-making on Sunday night, at a rally in Henderson, Nevada, bragging that Reinoehl was “taken care of in 15 minutes.”

The implication isn’t subtle, especially as Trump has ranted for years about how law enforcement is supposedly hobbled by all these silly rules about respecting people’s constitutional rights. Now he’s encouraging his followers to see due process and laws against vigilante violence as unjust burdens, and suggesting they should just define for themselves when lethal force is justified against people they see as “un-American.”

Trump has long flirted with the idea of turning the sea of armed and angry white men who worship him into a militia he can use to seize power he can’t win through democratic means. During the 2016 campaign, Trump told his supporters that “Second Amendment people” should consider taking action against Hillary Clinton, if she won the election. 

Trump’s current Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, has a healthy lead in the polls, and Trump likely understands that he can’t win a fair election. The blueprint for stealing this one — helpfully laid out last week by convicted felon and long-time Trump ally Roger Stone, in an interview with Infowars — will rely on an alliance between law enforcement and armed right-wing civilians to prevent people from voting, prevent election officials from counting the votes, and the suppressing the inevitable street protests by Trump’s opponents demanding that votes be counted. 

So Trump is preparing his people — both the armed civilians and his right-wing allies in law enforcement — to take violent action by teeing up the rationales now. Using false claims of “voter fraud,” he’s encouraging his followers to be “poll watchers,” an obvious euphemism for trying to intimidate anyone whose race, appearance or demeanor makes them look like a probable Democrat. Now he’s pushing the boundaries of what constitutes a legitimate use of violence.  

The beauty of “retribution” as an excuse for violence is how flexible it is. Implicit in Trump’s unhinged comments is a belief that laws against murder are too strict, and that his followers should feel free to transgress them if they conclude that the target of their ire has it coming. In lionizing people like Rittenhouse or the marshals who shot Reinoehl out of “retribution,” Trump is sending a clear signal to his followers: Forget what the law says, and do whatever you think is necessary to “make America great again.”

 

“I wouldn’t be shocked”: Why Joe Biden has an actual shot at winning deep-red Texas

Some states are very easy to predict in 2020’s presidential election, but Texas isn’t one of them. While California, New York, Massachusetts and Oregon are almost certain to go to former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is almost certain to carry deep red states like Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, Texas is proving to be quite nuanced — with Trump slightly ahead in some polls and Biden slightly ahead in others. Texas is still a red state, but like Georgia, it’s light red rather than deep red — and pundit Galen Druke, in a video for pollster Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website, lays out some reasons why the Lone Star State is in play for Biden.

Although Texas can be very Democratic at the local level — major urban centers like Houston, Austin, Dallas and El Paso lean Democrat — the Democratic Party struggles in statewide races in Texas. Druke, in the FiveThirtyEight video, notes that a Democrat hasn’t won Texas in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. But he goes on to explain that Texas “could be turning blue” because of its “demographics.”

“It’s a majority minority state,” Druke explains. “So, the state is about 41% white, 40% Hispanic, 13% black and 5% Asian. You would think, looking at those numbers, that the state is already Democrat. But here’s the deal: the electorate in Texas is majority white — about 55% of the electorate, in fact.”

There are some nuances in the demographic figures that Druke cites. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the “41% white” is non-Hispanic whites, and the “40% Hispanic” includes some white Latinos — for example, Sen. Ted Cruz. His father was from Cuba, and the 49-year-old senator was born Rafael Edward Cruz on December 22, 1970. Texas has its share of white Latinos, but at this point, non-Hispanic, non-Latino whites comprise only about 41% of Texas’ population.

A big problem for Democrats in Texas, as Druke points out, is the fact that many of the state’s Latinos don’t vote.

According to Druke, “The Texas electorate is majority white in large part because Latinos only make up about a quarter of voters even though they’re about 40% of the population . . . Turnout among Latinos, in general, is lower in Texas. Then, among those who do turn out, about a third reliably vote for Republicans. So, Texas is a very diverse state.”

Druke goes on to cite some figures that illustrate the progress Democrats have been making slowly in Texas. The FiveThirtyEight pundit notes that in 2012’s presidential race, Republican Mitt Romney won Texas by 16% — whereas Trump won Texas by only 9% in 2016. And when Cruz was reelected in the 2018 midterms, Druke adds, he defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by only 2%.

“College-educated white voters,” according to Druke, are making Texas more Democrat-friendly — and only 30% of that demographic voted for Trump in Texas in 2016. Then, in 2018, Cruz won only 10% of college-educated whites.

Bearing those things in mind, Druke stresses, Texas is definitely in play for Biden — and he notes that according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, he has roughly a 31% chance of winning Texas.

“I wouldn’t be shocked, on Election Day — or in the days after Election Day after all the votes are counted — if Biden ends up winning (Texas),” Druke says. “It’s clear where the preferences of Texans and the demographics in general are headed there.”

Trump may end up at Rikers Island by the end of 2023 if he loses re-election: legal experts

If President Donald Trump loses re-election, he could find himself the first ex-president to be charged with a crime.

More than a dozen investigations are already under way against Trump and his associates, so his potential legal exposure is “breathtaking,” according to New York Magazine columnist Jeff Wise.

“You might think, given all the crimes Trump has bragged about committing during his time in office, that the primary path to prosecuting him would involve the U.S. Justice Department,” Wise wrote. “If Joe Biden is sworn in as president in January, his attorney general will inherit a mountain of criminal evidence against Trump accumulated by Robert Mueller and a host of inspectors general and congressional oversight committees. After the DOJ’s incoming leadership is briefed on any sensitive matters contained in the evidence, federal prosecutors will move forward with their investigations of Trump.”

Trump could try to pardon himself on his way out of the White House, which would certainly complicate matters, but Wise believes that Manhattan district attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. would likely charge the president with falsifying business records and tax fraud.

“To build a fraud case against Trump, Vance subpoenaed his financial records,” Wise wrote. “But those records alone won’t be enough: To secure a conviction, Vance will need to convince a jury not only that Trump cheated on his taxes but that he intended to do so.”

Unfortunately for the president, his former attorney Michael Cohen and longtime accountant Allen Weisselberg have already signaled they’re willing to cooperate with prosecutors and both would have strong evidence to prove Trump’s intent.

“Once indicted, Trump would be arraigned at New York Criminal Court, a towering Art Deco building at 100 Centre Street,” Wise wrote. “Since a former president with a Secret Service detail can hardly slip away unnoticed, he would likely not be required to post bail or forfeit his passport while awaiting trial. His legal team, of course, would do everything it could to draw out the proceedings.”

Accounting for those legal delays, experts told Wise that Trump would likely go on trial by 2023 and last no longer than a few months, and the president’s own supporters have already been persuaded to convict former campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

“Trump’s conviction would seal the greatest downfall in American politics since Richard Nixon,” Wise wrote. “Unlike his associates who were sentenced to prison on federal charges, Trump would not be eligible for a presidential pardon or commutation, even from himself. And while his lawyers would file every appeal they can think of, none of it would spare Trump the indignity of imprisonment.”

“Unlike the federal court system, which often allows prisoners to remain free during the appeals process, state courts tend to waste no time in carrying out punishment,” he added. “After someone is sentenced in New York City, their next stop is Rikers Island. Once there, as Trump awaited transfer to a state prison, the man who’d treated the presidency like a piggy bank would receive yet another handout at the public expense: a toothbrush and toothpaste, bedding, a towel, and a green plastic cup.”