Public opinion polls show that 47 percent of registered voters support Donald Trump in the 2024 election. This appears to be both Trump’s basement and ceiling of support. Like a cult leader, he has a near-iron grip on his MAGA supporters and the Republican Party. Trump can attempt a coup, channel Hitler, be convicted of multiple criminal felons, publicly praise tyrants, promise to become America’s first dictator for “day one” of his return to power in 2025 and threaten his “enemies” with "retribution." 

The adoration and loyalty that his MAGA supporters— and Republicans and right-leaning independents more broadly — show for Trump is a cause of great consternation and frustration for Democrats. While a new public opinion poll from CBS/YouGov shows that Kamala Harris continues to gain momentum, the race remains a statistical tie in the key battleground states that will determine the final outcome in the Electoral College. Experts continue to warn that the 2024 election, at this point, is the closest in recent history.

In an attempt to better understand this apparent political stalemate, what the actual data reveals as opposed to the mostly useless “vibes” that many are preoccupied with, and what it may all mean for the future of American democracy, I recently spoke with Robert P. Jones, president and founder of the Public Religion Research Institute. Jones is the author of the New York Times bestseller "The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy and the Path to a Shared American Future" (now available in paperback with a new afterword) as well as "White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity."

In this conversation, Jones explains the almost mythical and divine role that Trump occupies in the collective minds of white right-wing Christians. Jones also discusses his new research which shows the frightening overlaps between white right-wing Christians and support for authoritarianism and political violence as seen on Jan. 6 and its implications for the future of American democracy and society in the Age of Trump and beyond.

This interview has been edited for clarity and length. 

What story are the polls telling us about the 2024 election?

So far in the 2024 election cycle, the polling for the presidential election has told us only one thing that we can say with confidence: The contest remains a dead heat.

Because of the Electoral College, the national polls are irrelevant. At the state level, despite the breathless headlines of “Trump leading by three” or “Harris up by two,” we have yet to see either candidate pull into a lead that is firmly outside the margin of error in the polling averages in any swing state. There are also typically 5-6 percentage points of respondents who either refuse the vote question or say they remain undecided. The state polls are also of limited help with understanding subgroups because of smaller sample sizes. For example, if you wanted to understand Black voters in Michigan, even with a poll of 1,000 voters, you’d likely have at most 150 African Americans in the sample and estimates of their opinions would have a margin of error of +/- 10 percentage points. 

The most obvious, but perhaps also most surprising thing particularly given Donald Trump’s increasingly outright racist and erratic rhetoric, is how little the voting patterns have shifted since 2020 or even 2016. For example, despite everything Trump has done and even been convicted of, there’s no evidence of any erosion of support for Trump among white Christians or white frequent churchgoers. It’s a good indicator of what a death grip partisanship has on American voters.

The news media is obsessed with novelty and the “new” in the “news.” When you look at Trump and Trumpism in longer, and much more important historical and cultural terms, how are you making sense of this crisis?

As dangerous as Trump is for democracy, he is a symptom, not the disease. While we at PRRI are continually taking the pulse of contemporary public opinion, those results can only be fully understood when placed in historical context. There are clear historical throughlines. For example, the authoritarian tactics currently deployed by Trump have historical precedents both in the US and in early 20th century Europe. PRRI’s most recent study, "One Leader Under God: The Connection Between Authoritarianism and Christian Nationalism in America." tapped the sociological literature that arose to understand the rise of fascism in Europe in the early 20th century. 

In "The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy and the Path to a Shared American Future," I also connected the dots between the threat of Christian nationalism we are facing today and 500 years of Christian doctrine going back to the European colonial period. This deeper historical context helps us see that many of the perplexing features of our current conflicts are new occurrences of old unresolved questions. Today, the changing demographics of the country has thrown us back to a fundamental question: Are we a pluralistic democracy, in which everyone stands on equal footing regardless of race or religion, or are we a white Christian nation, a kind of promised land for European Christians?

What do we know about Trump’s messianic martyr appeal for his White Christian right-wing followers? 

Trump has long played into the idea that he was specially chosen by God to save the country from evil and destruction. This appeal is straight out of the authoritarian playbook. Even before the two attempts on his life, he was using language that directly compared himself to a messianic figure who was being wounded and persecuted on behalf of his righteous followers. He made this case overtly last spring in a speech to the National Religious Broadcasters, an organization created by leaders of communications outlets that operate specifically in the white evangelical world. His language was not subtle: "I'm a very proud Christian, actually. I’ve been very busy fighting and, you know, taking the the bullets, taking the arrows. I'm taking 'em for you. And I'm so honored to take 'em. You have no idea. I'm being indicted for you….And in the end, they're not after me. They're after you. I just happen to be standing in the way.” 

He’s continued to use this language that evokes the theological logic of substitutionary atonement, where he bravely offers himself to be sacrificed on behalf of his followers. But Trump the messiah promises to bring not love or righteousness, but the restoration of power to white Christians in a changing America. In the same speech, Trump made a promise to his white evangelical followers: "I get in there, you're gonna be using that power at a level that you've never used it before. It's gonna bring back the churchgoer…. We're gonna bring it back. And I really believe it's the biggest thing missing from this country. It's the biggest thing missing. We have to bring back our religion. We have to bring back Christianity in this country.” Trump’s white Christian base has largely remained with him not because they necessarily believe he is one of them but because they believe he’ll restore what they see as their rightful place of power in a white Christian America. At root, Trump’s appeal to white Christians is not his values, but his value for achieving their Christian nationalist ends.

Donald Trump is a symbol, not just a man. Trumpism and American neofascism will exist for a long time after he is gone. The hope-peddlers and happy-pill sellers in the news media and political class are doing the American people a great disservice by not emphasizing this fact.

I recently wrote about the social psychology of this phenomenon. The transformation of Trump from a person to a symbol is the key to understanding the power of the MAGA movement and the internal logic of its upside-down world. It is true that every presidential candidate becomes, to some extent, a symbol or totem. We read into their biographies and project onto their bodies a broader set of principles, values and worldviews. But typically, in healthier times than ours, the connection between a candidate’s character and actions on the one hand, and their idealized symbolic projection on the other, remains visible and therefore functional. Any significant misstep may be enough to break the magical, often fragile social spell that binds the person to the symbol.

When the leader becomes the totem, no transgression is capable of separating him from his acolytes. A totem can’t lie or be vulgar. A totem doesn’t have marriage vows that can be violated. A totem can’t sexually assault a woman. A totem can’t commit fraud. A totem can’t betray an oath to the Constitution. A totem has no innate human characteristics at all. It is a mirror, reflecting the collective fears and aspirations of the group, who both generate its image and receive it back reinforced. And this is why Trump the totem, much more than Trump the man, poses such a unique danger to democracy and the rule of law.

Your new polling and other work examine the role of the authoritarian personality in support for Donald Trump and his neofascist MAGA movement, specifically among white Christians. How do you define “authoritarianism” in this new research? What do we know about authoritarianism and “conservatives” in the Age of Trump? 

PRRI recently released a groundbreaking new study, "One Leader Under God: The Connection Between Authoritarianism and Christian Nationalism in America," based on more than 5,000 interviews with Americans this summer. Revisiting work first developed over concerns about the rise of fascism in early 20th century Germany and Italy (e.g., in Theodor Adorno et al’s 1950 classic "The Authoritarian Personality"), PRRI developed a Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale (RWAS) based on agreement with four highly correlated measures of authoritarian attitudes. PRRI finds that 43% of Americans score high or very high on the RWAS, compared with 37% who score low or very low; two in ten Americans qualify as having mixed opinions (20%).

But these attitudes are not evenly distributed across the political or religious landscape. Republicans are clear outliers. Two-thirds of Republicans score high on the RWAS (67%), compared with only 35% of independents and 28% of Democrats. Notably, Republicans who hold favorable views of Trump are nearly twice as likely as those with unfavorable views of Trump to score high on the RWAS (75% vs. 39%). In short, this study demonstrates how overwhelmingly the authoritarian impulse has taken over the Republican Party.

Donald Trump’s strongest supporters have consistently been white Christians. What does your new research reveal about authoritarian values and members of that group?

White evangelical Protestants (64%) are the religious group most likely to score high on the RWAS, followed by slim majorities of Hispanic Protestants (54%) and white Catholics (54%). As a reminder, each of these groups also strongly supported Donald Trump in the 2020 election: 84% of white evangelical Protestants; 56% of other non-white/non-Black Protestants, and 57% of white Catholics. No other religious groups have majorities scoring high on the RWAS.

The PRRI study clearly shows how these authoritarian orientations — so pronounced among Republicans and their white evangelical Protestant base—translate into concrete attitudes and support for actions that undermine our democracy.  Just two examples. First, nearly half of white evangelical Protestants (48%) and nearly four in ten Republicans (39%) agree with the theocratic vision of Christian dominionism, that “God wants Christians to take control of the ‘seven mountains’ of society, including the government, education, media and others.” Second, nearly half of Republicans (49%) — and a majority of Republicans with a favorable view of Trump (55%) — agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track in this country, we need a leader who is willing to break some rules if that's what it takes to set things right.” Four in ten white evangelicals (40%) also support rule-breaking by a strong leader.

How is support for authoritarianism correlated with support for political violence among White Christians? 

About one-quarter of Republicans (27%) — and 32% of Republicans with a favorable view of Trump — agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save the country.” Republican support for potential political violence is twice as high as Americans overall (14%) and three times higher than Democrats (8%). Nearly one in four white evangelical Protestants (23%) also express potential support for political violence.

The PRRI authoritarianism survey also provided two disturbing measures of the lengths Trump’s base supporters may be willing to go to ensure he returns to power.

• One in four Republicans (24%) — 29% of Republicans with a favorable view of Trump—and one in five white evangelical Protestants (20%) agree that “If Donald Trump is not confirmed as the winner of the 2024 election, he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume his rightful place as president.”
• One in four Republicans (24%) — and 27% of Republicans with a favorable view of Trump — agree that “if the 2024 presidential election is compromised by voter fraud, everyday Americans will need to ensure the rightful leader takes office, even if it requires taking violent actions.” One in five white evangelical Protestants (18%) also agree with this sentiment.

Is Christian nationalism, at this point, a violent ideology? Is support for violence as a means of bringing about the end of multiracial pluralistic secular democracy and society almost a prerequisite for such beliefs? 

Christian nationalists are more likely than other Americans to think about politics in apocalyptic terms and are about twice as likely as other Americans to believe political violence may be justified. Nearly four in ten Christian nationalism adherents (38%) and one-third of sympathizers (33%) agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country,” compared with only 17% of Christian Nationalism skeptics and 7% of rejecters.

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The danger of the Christian nationalist worldview is that it raises the stakes of political contests exponentially, transposing political opponents into existential enemies. Politics are no longer understood to be disagreements between fellow citizens of goodwill but to be apocalyptic battles over good and evil, fought by agents of God against agents of Satan. Political opponents should not just be defeated in fair electoral contests but should be jailed, exiled, attacked, or even killed.

How does your new research inform our understanding of Project 2025 and the larger neofascist plan that Trump and his MAGAfied Republicans will implement to end America’s multiracial pluralistic democracy?

The most disturbing thing about Project 2025 isn’t its extreme policy and political recommendations but the way it marshals Christian nationalist commitments to distort beyond all recognition fundamental American values like life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The following passage in the Foreword should send chills up the spines of all Americans who value our Constitution and the freedoms we hold dear in our democracy:

When the Founders spoke of the “pursuit of Happiness,” what they meant might be understood today as in essence “pursuit of Blessedness.” That is, an individual must be free to live as his Creator ordained — to flourish. Our Constitution grants each of us the liberty to do not what we want, but what we ought. This pursuit of the good life is found primarily in family — marriage, children, Thanksgiving dinners, and the like.

If you read this passage quickly, it’s possible to miss the rhetorical sleight of hand at play here — one that substitutes an impoverished conception of liberty that is captive to a conservative Christian nationalist determination of the good life for true individual liberty that is determined by each citizen. There is a powerful normative white Christian worldview lurking in those images (and a non-coincidental resonance with JD Vance’s problematic claims about marriage and children). If Trump succeeds in getting elected and implementing Project 2025, I’m sure he’ll still speak about life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. But the rest of us will only be free to do what they believe we ought.

What positive role, if any, can “Christians” play in the pro-democracy movement?

While the authoritarian and Christian nationalist MAGA movement has captured a supermajority of white evangelical Protestants and majorities of both white non-evangelical Protestants and white Catholics, these Trump-leaning white Christian groups are not the only face of Christianity in America. In fact, even combined, all white Christians only comprise 41% of Americans today. Approximately one in four Americans are nonwhite Christians who have a very different history, one that supports rather than opposes an inclusive democracy. And even within white Christian contexts, there are groups such as Christians Against Christian Nationalism that are facing this threat to democracy and to the Christian faith itself directly.

The good news is that while three in 10 Americans are either Christian nationalism adherents or sympathizers, two-thirds of the country rejects this anti-democratic ideology. And among Americans under the age of 50, opposition rises to nearly three-fourths. So, this is not an ascendant movement but a desperate, last-ditch effort to secure minority rule in the face of a rapidly diversifying nation.