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“We don’t get to carry on forever”: Bob Odenkirk’s next chapter post-collapse and “Better Call Saul”

Bob Odenkirk is amply aware of his good fortune.

During his Tuesday appearance in Pasadena, California as part of a Television Critics Association press conference for his new AMC series “Lucky Hank,” Odenkirk marveled at feeling like “this weird little baby bird at the age of 59, like, ‘Hey everybody!  What are we doing today?'”

The actor could have been referring to a workday on the set of his new AMC comedy but, no. He was describing the euphoria that engulfed him after he recovered from the heart attack he suffered while filming the sixth and final season of “Better Call Saul.”

The actor collapsed in July 2021 while filming “Point and Shoot,” the episode that resolved a midseason cliffhanger in which a major character left the show horizontally. But at his first in-person TCA appearance since that drama ended, Odenkirk described the way his life has changed after that health scare as an ongoing process.  

“I’m still in the middle of it,” he told the reporters assembled in Pasadena, describing the weeks of production after his return from work on Saul as having a “strange kind of blank slate quality.

“I’ll just acknowledge it, it happened pretty fast,” said Odenkirk about “Lucky Hank.”

“Literally, I couldn’t remember any of it and even had a hard time making memories for a couple of weeks afterward,” he continued. “Some people say it was like a mechanism, like a self-protective thing that your body does, but I don’t know.  Everyone has different experiences with those kinds of things.

“For me, I think it’s still resonating in my life, but . . . that’s a very serious subject to me right now, is trying to balance work-life balance. Because I don’t think I’ve figured it out yet, and I didn’t figure it out at the time. And I have to do a better job because we don’t get to carry on forever. We just don’t.”

Lucky HankBob Odenkirk as Hank and Mireille Enos as Lily in “Lucky Hank” (Sergei Bachlakov/AMC)Odenkirk was speaking to reporters to promote his new comedy “Lucky Hank,” which AMC picked up straight to series in April 2022 – right in the midst of the curtain-closing run of “Better Call Saul.”

While it’s not unusual for in-demand actors to leap directly from one long-running show to a new one, the fact that Odenkirk is doing that right after spending most of the last decade and a half playing Saul Goodman on “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul” probably surprises some of the fans who were shocked by the news of his collapse during production.

Odenkirk says that he returned to the “Better Call Saul” set after five weeks of recovery, which he says was enough. “And then they were very careful about giving me not too much work to do. But it was hard. It was really hard,” he admitted. “After about eight hours of shooting, I’d get tired. And then the season ended, and then all the promotion for that season, and I did this wonderful trip with my family that I had been waiting for for years.”

Still, he said, the distance between the possibility of starring in “Lucky Hank” and having the show become a reality was shockingly short. He says his wife and manager Naomi brought the script to him while he was still working on “Saul,” whose critical acclaim and multiple award nominations over the years have ensured him a permanent place in AMC’s golden ledger.  

Despite this, Odenkirk assured reporters he doesn’t take that for granted. “You know, it’s a gift if the network that’s making your show wants it, really wants it badly. That’s wonderful. It’s a rare occurrence,” the actor said. “But it was pretty quick . . . I’ll just acknowledge it, it happened pretty fast. I mean, all that meant was that when I showed up on set, we had to find our way.”

“I could’ve been a zombie,” Odenkirk joked.

“Lucky Hank” is a more straightforward comedy than “Better Call Saul” ever was, which probably aided in his decision to jump into it so soon.

Adapted from Richard Russo’s 1997 novel “Straight Man,” the show’s original title, it’s styled as a workplace comedy ruled by intellectual snobbery. Odenkirk’s character William Henry Devereaux, Jr. is worlds apart – psychologically speaking – from Jimmy McGill, Saul Goodman, or however people prefer to identify his Gilliverse con man turned criminal lawyer.

Lucky HankBob Odenkirk as Hank in “Lucky Hank” (Sergei Bachlakov/AMC)Henry is the chairman of his college’s English department, which would sound like a prestigious title in a random cocktail hour conversation. But he holds that position at a second-rate university located in Pennsylvania’s rust belt, where he strains to overcome the blessed curse of tenure.  


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After Saul Goodman, Odenkirk seems to view Henry as a respite. “I like this guy.  As crabby as he is, he loves his wife,” Odenkirk said. “Saul was really alone. I mean, he wanted Kim to love him, but she wasn’t somehow going to. 

“I mean, they were never going to really be fully embracing each other. It was a tough guy to play,” he added. “He was so alone. And so I like that this guy loved his wife and she loved him. I liked that he loved his daughter and even though they fight, she loves him. I like the humor of him. He’s funny, and he knows he’s being funny.”  

That may be, but Hank is also similar enough to other figures one can envision Odenkirk embodying – certainly more than other post-“Better Call Saul” roles he could have been offered at AMC.

“I could’ve been a zombie,” Odenkirk joked. “I could be any kind of zombie you want me to be.”

“Lucky Hank” premieres on Sunday, March 19 on AMC and AMC+. 

 

Legal experts react after Merrick Garland picks ex-Trump U.S. attorney as Biden docs special counsel

Attorney General Merrick Garland addressed the documents found in President Joe Biden’s Penn Biden Center after leaving the vice presidency. Garland said that the FBI went to Joe Biden’s house and secured the documents. Robert Hur was named as the special counsel to probe the incident.

The initial work done by the U.S. Attorney John Lausch would be handed over to Hur as Lausch told Garland that he was leaving the Justice Department in the first part of 2023 for the private sector. It was previously reported that Lausch was the only U.S. Attorney left from the Trump administration. So, his departure leaves no one in the Justice Department that isn’t part of the Biden DOJ, thus the announcement of a special prosecutor.

Hur was the former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Maryland during the Donald Trump administration.

Former federal prosecutor Barb McQuade indicated online that a special counsel would likely only be appointed if there was evidence that a crime was committed. The fact that Lausch was leaving likely makes the appointment of Hur necessary, she told MSNBC after the press conference. Politically it looks bad to low-information voters, but legally it isn’t an escalation, she said.

“Based on what we know, it sounds like an innocent, albeit careless mistake,” said McQuade.

“For those playing along at home, Merrick Garland knew Trump stole classified documents as early as January 2021 and… took almost 2 years to appoint a special counsel,” The Nation’s Elie Mystal complained on Twitter. “With Biden, it took Garland 2 months. I keep trying to tell you guys that Merrick is a pathetically weak man.”

Republican lawyer George Conway compared Garland’s move with the way that former Attorney General Bill Barr behaved when it came to the revelations that Donald Trump attempted to bribe the president of Ukraine.

“Contrast Garland’s alacrity in appointing a special counsel for Biden today with Barr’s outright refusal to appoint one to look into Trump’s criminal attempt to extort Ukraine,” said Conway.

National security lawyer Bradley Moss said that he doesn’t have an issue with a special counsel in this case, but doesn’t see a reason for it.

“I think it’s pointless (Hur will still report to Garland in the end) but the politics of the moment require it. It changes nothing in terms of my legal analysis of liability,” he explained.

MSNBC host Chris Hayes pointed out lawyer Chase Madar’s comments that the story still is not that big of a deal and that the documents weren’t going to cause mayhem. Madar said it’s all “meta-commentary” and “optics.” Hayes said that Trump would never have had a problem if he’d just handed over the documents from Mar-a-Lago at the beginning.

Civil Rights lawyer Andrew Laufer agreed that the special counsel was a “wise move” given “what’s coming down the pike for Trump.”

Coal baron Joe Manchin’s defense of gas stoves flames out against “50 years of health studies”

Centrist lawmaker Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is not pleased with the announcement of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission’s latest decision to move forward with an initiative to regulate the use of gas stoves.

According to Bloomberg, the move comes amid the results of research findings linking gas stoves to asthma in children. In wake of the decision, Manchin took to Twitter with a critical opinion of the commission’s assessment.

“This is a recipe for disaster,” Manchin tweeted. “The federal government has no business telling American families how to cook their dinner. I can tell you the last thing that would ever leave my house is the gas stove that we cook on.”

Social media quickly erupted over Manchin’s defense of gas cooking appliances, given his reputation as a coal baron.

Nonetheless, despite Manchin’s argument, Bloomberg noted that reports from multiple groups including the Institute for Policy Integrity and the American Chemical Society have shed light on the dangers gas stoves pose.

“Natural gas stoves, which are used in about 40% of homes in the US, emit air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter at levels the EPA and World Health Organization have said are unsafe and linked to respiratory illness, cardiovascular problems, cancer, and other health conditions,” the news outlet reported.

A number of experts have also echoed the concerns. During a recent interview, agency commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. weighed in with his concerns.

“This is a hidden hazard,” Trumka said. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”

“There is about 50 years of health studies showing that gas stoves are bad for our health, and the strongest evidence is on children and children’s asthma,” said Brady Seals, a manager at the clean energy organization, RMI. “By having a gas connection, we are polluting the insides of our homes.”

However, the commission is standing by its decision to move forward.

“The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and EPA do not present gas ranges as a significant contributor to adverse air quality or health hazard in their technical or public information literature, guidance, or requirements,” said Karen Harbert, the group’s president. “The most practical, realistic way to achieve a sustainable future where energy is clean, as well as safe, reliable and affordable, is to ensure it includes natural gas and the infrastructure that transports it.”

McCarthy backs Santos as new reports raise alarm about campaign funds and link to “Ponzi scheme”

Newly seated Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., worked for finance company Harbor City Capital which — before it shut down amid scandal — the Securities Exchange Commission described as a “classic Ponzi scheme.” And, according to court-appointed lawyers now investigating the former company’s assets, Santos received income from that company in April 2021 — at least a month longer than he claimed in his campaign filings and disclosures

Meanwhile, large-sum donors to a Santos-linked fundraising group are raising alarms over missing records. But House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., still backs the embattled congressman amid mounting formal inquiries and calls for Santos’ resignation

The latest information about the timing of Santos’ reported income offers investigators a closer look as they follow an increasingly suspicious paper trail. As reported by the Washington Post, Santos’ final Harbor Capital income in April 2021 came about a month before Santos and former Harbor City CFO DeVaughn Dames registered Santos’ mysteriously and suddenly profitable company, Devolder, in May 2021. Santos received a $750,000 salary plus $1 million in dividends from Devolder through 2021, and claimed to have lent his campaign $705,000 — including more than 800 suspiciously receiptless expenses under $200, the Federal Election Commission’s disclosure-requirement threshold. 

Per The New York Times, Devolder’s May registration came about seven months before Devolder and Jayson Benoit — another former Harbor City colleague of Santos’ — were listed as managing officers in the November 2021 registration of nonprofit fundraising outfit RedStone Strategies. RedStone’s donors included the state PAC, Rise NY, run by the congressman’s sister, Tiffany Santos. Now, former large-sum RedStone donors want to know where their Santos campaign donations went.

When CNN’s Kristin Wilson approached Santos, the congressman said he would resign “if 142 people ask me to resign.” 

The number went unexplained. It would require two-thirds of the House’s 435 members to vote to remove a sitting member — 290 when the House is fully seated.


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But by noon EST, the congressman clarified to reporters that he has no plans to resign. 

McCarthy told CNN that, for now, Santos “will continue to serve.”

“There is a concern. He has to go through the ethics (complaint process). We’ll let him move through that but — right now — the voters have a voice in the decision,” McCarthy said.

In a Thursday morning press conference, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., called Santos “a complete and total fraud.” Per reporting from Politico’s Nicholas Wu, Jeffries said it was up to the GOP “to do something about it.”

“The spectacle that is George Santos speaks for itself,” Jeffries said. “This is an issue that Republicans need to handle. Clean up your house.”

Santos is also still wanted in Brazil for, as he admitted, stealing another man’s checkbook from his own mother — then using the stolen checks to buy himself a new wardrobe in 2008.

MSNBC host: RNC chief may have directly implicated Trump in a “crime” by outing his “cover story”

MSNBC’s Ari Melber on Wednesday outlined how the House Select Committee’s final report on the January 6th Capitol riots showed how Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel implicated former President Donald Trump in a crime.

During a review of the committee’s report, Melber highlighted McDaniel’s description of how Trump roped her into a scheme concocted by attorney John Eastman, the author of the notorious so-called “coup memo” that argued Vice President Mike Pence had the power to singlehandedly reject certified election results.

“What you are about to see clearly, factually, bolsters the legal and criminal case against Trump for the Department of Justice,” he said. “As I said, it’s not from some critic or outside the room, but a person in the room, on the calls, direct evidence. No hearsay. A MAGA loyalist… Ronna McDaniel, who is chair of the Republican National Committee.”

He then played testimony of McDaniel explaining how Trump put her on the phone with Eastman, who encouraged her to use the RNC to help him shore up his “alternate electors” plot that would involve replacing the electors in states won by President Joe Biden with electors beholden to Trump.

“Her description of it under oath refers to Donald Trump’s cover story, or what most prosecutors view as a crime, submitting false information, in this case elector material to the government,” he said. “It’s a type of fraud. It’s a crime, illegal. Trump was both orchestrating the call using his power as president to get the RNC chair on the line and making her talk to his lawyer, who he thought he could help keep his secret because of attorney/client privilege and other abuses.”

Watch the video below or at this link.

“Millions” of kids may fall into poverty because Congress won’t extend child tax credit, expert says

Nearly one year into the pandemic — after COVID-19’s school closures, lay-offs and childcare crisis pushed American parents over the edge financially and emotionally — Congress expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC) as part of the 2021 American Rescue Plan. The credit brought some relief to an otherwise dark moment for both parents and children.

Previously, the CTC gave most middle-income parents $2,000 per child, but with the American Rescue Plan, the expansion increased the amount to $3,600 per child. The eligibility criteria also broadened to reach more economically disadvantaged children, offering the credit to families who paid no federal income tax.

Despite helping an estimated 61 million children in 36 million households across the country, Congress has yet again failed to pass the expansion.

Expert analyses agree that the effects were significant. In fact, in 2021, the United States saw a historic decline in child poverty — nearly 46 percent, according U.S. Census Bureau data — which advocates say was a result of the increased child tax credit and its accessibility. While the expansion was meant to be a one-off, parents and advocates hope that if it proved to be socially successful, which it did, Congress would make it a permanent staple for American parents. Parents shared cheery anecdotes with news outlets explaining how the extra income went to subsidizing childcare costs, paid for rent, gas, and even helped rebuild savings for their children. It was life changing.

Despite helping an estimated 61 million children in 36 million households across the country, Congress has yet again failed to pass the expansion. Indeed, in January 2022, Republicans and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.V.) refused to extend it. More recently, an effort to revive it failed again.

Roy Chrobocinski, manager director of domestic federal policy at the humanitarian organization Save the Children, told Salon that this failure means many American families will again struggle to pay for necessities.

“Inflation is taking its toll on families, groceries are more expensive, childcare is more expensive, the cost of gas, the cost of travel, everything is more expensive right now — and this lifeline to families in the form of child tax credit really helped to provide the basic necessities to families that were struggling in the midst of the pandemic,” Chrobocinski said. “I think we can all agree that life hasn’t gotten any easier or cheaper since.”

Chrobocinski suggested the reason Congress has failed to pass the expansion yet again is because it struggles to justify the cost.


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“You’ll hear from other members about how the credit actually decreases people’s interest in working so that they can get this ‘free’ money from the federal government, it puts less pressure on them to work… there are a number of members of Congress who believe that getting people back into the workforce is going to provide more return on investment than it would giving out a tax credit,” Chrobocinski said. “We disagree — we think that there is clearly a value in giving families who are in need of assistance a little bit extra assistance — but unfortunately, that argument doesn’t always win.”

“I think we’re gonna see more than 4 million more kids living in poverty, or something around there.”

According to researchers at Columbia University, single-parent households, Black and Latino families, and households in rural areas were some of those who benefitted the most from the program.

Bruce Lesley, president of First Focus, told Salon the refusal to extend the program once again speaks to a more troubling trend in America — how children are often “invisibilized.” 

“Here’s a policy, the Child Tax Credit, and yet the conversation for some people isn’t even about children, it’s about adults,” Lesley said. “And we see this with the child tax credit but with other policies as well, which is that kids are constantly an afterthought, they’re invisibilized in the way we think about things or how we address them.”

Lesley said he predicts child poverty will rise as a result of families not receiving an expansion of the child tax credit.

“I think we’re definitely going to see more than 3 million, maybe 4 million increase, in the number of kids living in poverty between 2021 and let’s say 2023,” Lesley said. “2022 is a weird year because [of] the way tax works — some people got the refunds in 2022, but if you compare 2021 to 2023, I think we’re gonna see more than 4 million more kids living in poverty, or something around there.”

“Ridiculous”: Democrats fume after Missouri House GOP tries to impose dress code on women lawmakers

Legislators in the Missouri House of Representatives sparred on Wednesday over a Republican amendment to regulate what types of clothing women lawmakers should be permitted to wear while at work.

House Resolution 11 was cleared by the GOP-dominated Consent and House Procedure Committee. And while it has not yet been submitted to the Missouri State Senate, passionate arguments have burbled from assemblymembers on both sides of the political aisle.

State Representative Raychel Proudie (D-53rd District), for example, lambasted the proposal as inherently absurd, overtly sexist, and unworthy of consideration:

I want you all to pay particular attention, because there’s going to be times on this floor where there are things that should not require debate and comment. I contend that these are one of these things. There are times to have your name said, to be recognized, to be called upon. This is not one of those things. There are some very serious things that are in this rule package that I think we should be debating, but instead, we are fighting again for women’s right to choose something. And this time is how she covers herself and the interpretation of someone who has no background in fashion, because – again, this isn’t a shot – it’s inappropriate to wear sequins before five o’clock telling me that I can’t wear a crispy, good St. John sweater if it has too many buttons. I spend $1200 on a suit, and I can’t wear it in the people’s House because someone who doesn’t have the range tells me that it’s inappropriate.

That’s not why any of us were elected, Mr. Speaker. None of us. I urge us to vote no on this because it’s ridiculous. And also, congratulations. I’ll keep that to myself. To any of us who may be with child, you surely don’t have enough or have the money off the salary that we make to go buy a bunch of new clothes or tailored clothes. And I hope that you’re able to continue to wear your cardigan and vote on behalf of the people who sent you here.

Next, State Representative Ashley Aune (D-14th District) came to blows with one of HR 11’s co-sponsors, State Representative Ann Kelley (R-127th District), over why Republicans are pushing unnecessary – and creepy – restrictions on female attire.

Aune’s frustration was palpable:

You know what it feels like to have a bunch of men in this room looking at your top trying to decide whether it’s appropriate or not? Are we going to have [Chief Clerk and House Administrator] Dana [Rademan Miller] be checking our tags for whether it’s a knit blend or a polyester blend or the silk count? I mean, this is, this is ridiculous.

Kelley:

Lady. You’re right. It is ridiculous. It is absolutely absurd that we even have to talk about it on the House floor, in the House chamber?

Aune:

I agree! So why are you doing it? Why did you bring it up?

Kelley:

Why should we talk about something like this? It is absolutely ridiculous.

Aune, exasperated by Kelley’s seemingly self-defeating defense:

You brought this to the floor, lady, you tell me.

Kelley’s response was to blame women:

You would think, you would think, that all you would have to do is, say, dress professionally, and women could handle it. You would think elected officials could handle that.

Aune, refusing to take the bait:

You would think, you would think. But we’re walking around here in sequins and velveteens for the lady’s point. So, what is appropriate, and why do you get to decide?

Kelley, unable to provide substantive answers:

We need to get over the sequins. That’s ridiculous.

Watch below or at this link.

“Extraordinarily cringeworthy”: Proud Boys lawyer gets into “shouting match” with judge at hearing

A pretrial hearing for members of the Proud Boys accused of engaging in seditious conspiracy for their role in the January 6 Capitol riots went off the rails Wednesday during a heated argument between U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly and attorney Dan Hull, who is representing accused Proud Boy Joe Biggs.

As recounted by Politico senior legal affairs reporter Josh Gerstein, the drama began when Biggs’ other attorney, Norm Pattis, cited “irreconcilable differences” with Hull as a reason that he wanted to withdraw from the case.

Shortly after this, Hull stood up and demanded to be able to respond to something Pattis said about him that he described as a “complete falsehood.”

According to fellow Politico senior legal affairs reporter Kyle Cheney, this resulted in Judge Kelly getting into a “shouting match” with Hull over Pattis’ statement in which Kelly “had to repeatedly shout him down.”

Cheney also said that the entire pretrial hearing had been “extraordinarily cringeworthy to watch.”

The Proud Boys trial on seditious conspiracy charges comes mere months after the government successfully prosecuted members of the Oath Keepers militia, including founder Stewart Rhodes, on the same charges for their organized attempt to violently block the certification of the 2020 presidential election.

Two years after Jan. 6, it still divides our politics — and the press isn’t helping

Last Friday in the East Room, President Biden honored “the heroes of Jan. 6” at an emotional White House ceremony.

He gave the Presidential Citizens Medal — the country’s second-highest civilian honor — to 14 people, including police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol against attack and election workers who refused Donald Trump’s pressure to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Three of the medals were awarded posthumously to the families of police officers who died in the days after the attack.

“History will remember your names, remember your courage and remember your bravery,” Biden said.

The ceremony wasn’t without its humorous moments. As Biden spoke, the cell phone of one honoree started playing the president’s announcements on a live delay. “I never thought … (long pause) … I’d hear my own voice,” he said to laughter before getting serious again. When he mispronounced a recipient’s name and was corrected, he got another laugh by telling the recipient — Aquilino Gonell, a sergeant with the Capitol Police who was injured in the insurrection — that he could mispronounce the president’s name. 

Right about then, a young reporter turned to me as we stood watching the ceremony and said, “Wow, the president is really losing it. His Alzheimer’s is showing,” and then went on to mispronounce Gonell’s name. That made me laugh.

Then there was the moment when Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, a towering former college football lineman, walked up to receive his medal. He said something that couldn’t be heard by the audience, but he and Biden laughed together. 

The same young reporter turned to me and said, “They were probably making fun of the insurrectionists.” Later I found out that Dunn had joked about his height advantage over Biden (who is himself taller than average). The laugh they shared had nothing to do with the insurrection at all.

In both cases, the reporter was full of it. That’s just the tip of the iceberg as far as the press goes these days. It’s a minor if annoying example, but it speaks to the cynical and corrosive atmosphere of Washington.

Steve Scalise actually said, “Our committee chairs represent the very best of our conference.” If those 11 seditionists are the best, who are the worst? No one wants to know.

Speaking of Congress, after a historic and tragicomic leadership battle in the House among members of the Republican Party, Kevin McCarthy emerged with a questionable victory as the new speaker of the House. He had to give away most of his power to bask in the glory of having a title which means less than ever before, but then McCarthy is no Rhodes Scholar. As a member of his own party told me, “I’m not saying he’s stupid. I’m just saying he might have trouble spelling his own name.” Then there’s Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, who publicly mocked McCarthy while making continued demands that delayed McCarthy’s mediocre ascension to semi-power. Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama confronted Gaetz after the 14th round of voting fell just short of producing a speaker. Vegas odds had Gaetz felled by a single punch before several other members held back Rogers.  

So while Biden honored those who fought to maintain peace and order, the House dissolved into chaos due to those who backed the insurrectionists on Jan. 6. You’d expect nothing less of a party that has no moral compass and no self-respect, and whose brain trust consists of McCarthy, Gaetz, Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise. So it’s no surprise that we began this week with McCarthy rewarding some of the most deranged members of his conference. 

McCarthy tapped 11 Republicans as committee chairs who voted to reject the results of the 2020 presidential election. They did so by repeating the same lie about widespread voter fraud that only hours earlier had fueled the deadly insurrection at the Capitol which led to death threats against the vice president and sent those 11 lawmakers (and all the others) into hiding, afraid for their lives.

The 11 seditionists showed no shame and no care for those Republicans who refused to join them in the attempted coup, and even less for Democrats (whom they labeled “the enemy”) or the overwhelming majority of Americans who detested and denounced the insurrection.

“Our committee chairs represent the very best of our conference,” Majority Leader Scalise said, without a hint of irony. If this is the best of the GOP, then what is the worst? No one really wants to know.

But McCarthy told us in blunt terms in accepting the speakership what we should expect. In working together, he said, “there’s nothing” we can accomplish. Sure, maybe that was a slip of the tongue, but he’s probably right. McCarthy is an empty suit, a man without taste or style. He’s vanilla ice cream melted on a cardboard box. He has no imagination, and no sense of history or irony. His party may  claim to be the party of Lincoln, but it also embraces states’ rights. Here’s a hint: That was the Confederacy (and the pro-slavery Democrats of that era). He also said more than once that he watched Abraham Lincoln cure the problems of this country, which makes one wonder whether McCarthy is in possession of a time-traveling DeLorean, is a never-aging vampire, is the modern-day Rip Van Winkle or, more than likely, is just a mediocre mind  incapable of crafting or delivering a speech worth listening to.


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This does not portend well for the House of Representatives and all of Congress for the next two years. Even if Republicans vote as a block on any proposed legislation — should they be able to craft anything legible — it will fail in the Senate, where the Democrats hold a majority.

What we are likely to see, of course, is a lot more spectacle — sound and fury signifying nothing and led by Jim Jordan, who now chairs the House Judiciary Committee and conversed with Donald Trump during the insurrection. He guarantees us two years of subpoenas and hearings dedicated to Hunter Biden’s laptop, as well as investigating the Jan. 6 committee and its findings. He will also take up the “politicization of the DOJ,” according to McCarthy, but probably won’t call Michael Cohen as a witness. Cohen could offer first-hand testimony on how the Trump administration politicized the DOJ. No, like everything else the GOP has to offer at this point, this is all empty, angry bullying.

All we’re likely to get from this Congress is hearings on Hunter Biden’s laptop, led by Jim Jordan — sound and fury signifying nothing. Like everything else the GOP has to offer, it’s just empty, angry bullying.

The House will have trouble passing appropriation bills and omnibus bills, will threaten or perhaps cause government shutdowns and could easily lead the government to default on its debt. It isn’t just that the Republicans don’t understand how Congress works — particularly its members in the House — but also that they simply do not care. Blinded by their own zeal and sense of self-worth, those who know the least are in position to cause irreparable harm to those who will feel the effects of their stupidity the most — in other words, the rest of us.  

The insurrection only failed on Jan. 6 because of the efforts of the 14 people recognized by Joe Biden on Friday — and dozens if not hundreds of others who did so without being noticed and without caring to be noticed. They were patriots — in fact, many were real Republicans, rather than traitors. They no longer have a place in a party with no shame, no moral center, no honor and no common sense.

I met Rusty Bowers, the former Republican speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives, on Pebble Beach outside the White House on Friday. He is one of the heroes who was recognized by Biden. He is as soft-spoken and humble as anyone you’d hope to meet. He told me that he worries about the future of the country, and was thankful for being recognized for doing his part to save it. He was only doing his duty, he said. 

There is plenty of cause for concern and a still greater need for relentless scrutiny. But I’m afraid it won’t come from my brethren in the press.

On Friday afternoon, Biden left the White House for a quick stop at home in Delaware, before flying on to Mexico City for a meeting with the Mexican president and Canadian prime minister. He was late, of course, as most presidents are when they leave the White House. He walked out of the residence after dark and shook hands with several well-wishers behind a rope line before jogging to Marine One, the presidential helicopter. The very same reporter who told me earlier in the day that the president was befuddled and infirm turned to me again and said, “He’s running away from us.”

I didn’t bother responding. I did shout out, “Hey Mr. President, baby, we’re over here — come talk to us.” Biden slowed his roll and walked resolutely the last 10 or so paces, but he didn’t come over to us or even acknowledge us. I did get a laugh from the Secret Service and a couple of White House staffers for my question — so, you know, there’s that.

Once again, some of us in the press don’t get it. Understandably enough, Biden has little or no desire to interact with those who don’t understand the issues, cannot accurately report them and lack the experience or knowledge that would enable them to do so — in other words, most of the White House press corps.

The greatest challenge we have in the press is making sure that our people covering government understand the issues, will hold all politicians accountable and care more about their country than whether or not they can catch a ride on Air Force One. That brings us to the latest story, the classified documents found in Biden’s office. We won’t get that right either. 

Unfortunately, at this point it seems that while the politicians may be bad, we are worse. The GOP has stated its goals plainly enough: They want to burn it all down, and will spend the next two years doing so while blaming the Democrats and conning the country in hopes of somehow finagling continued control over the levers of power.

If the press is the last bulwark against that con game, then we’re all screwed.

“It’s always about the obstruction”: New TrumpWorld subpoenas target effort to “influence” witnesses

A “wide-ranging” subpoena sent to Trump campaign officials last month shows that special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 investigation is increasingly focused on new areas of interest, including fundraising efforts and potential efforts to influence witness testimony, according to The Washington Post.

The DOJ issued the four-page subpoena to multiple Trump campaign officials in early December, seeking more than “two dozen categories of information,” according to the report. One part of the subpoena asks Trump campaign officials if anyone paid for their legal representation and paperwork related to any such agreement.

The subpoena also seeks “all documents and communications” related to Trump’s fundraising activities for a litany of groups outside of his Save America PAC, which has already come under scrutiny. The new subpoenas seek documents related to the Make America Great Again PAC, the Save America Joint Fundraising Committee and the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, including documents related to the “formation, funding and/or use of money” of the groups.

The subpoena also seeks documents related to the creation of an “Election Defense Fund,” which Trump officials ostensibly formed created to raise money from grassroots donors after Trump’s election loss. Officials later testified to the House Jan. 6 committee that the fund technically did not exist but was a way to raise money from people who bought into Trump’s Big Lie.

Prosecutors’ interest in the payments comes after former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson testified to the Jan. 6 committee that she was initially represented by a Trump-linked lawyer who would not tell her who was paying his fees and said she did not need a formal written retention agreement.

“I was like, ‘I probably should sign an engagement letter.’ And he said, ‘No, no, no. We’re not doing that. Don’t worry. We have you taken care of,'” she told the panel, according to a transcript of the interview.

After her initial interview with the committee, the lawyer told Hutchinson that the people paying his fees would not want her to agree to additional interviews unless she is required to do so by a new subpoena, according to her testimony.

“‘Trump world will not continue paying your legal bills if you don’t have that second subpoena,'” Hutchinson recalled him saying, after hiring a new lawyer.

“At the heart of these subpoenas, in addition to previously reported investigation into fundraising fraud, there appears to be an inquiry into whether witness testimony was being improperly influenced. It’s always about the obstruction,” tweeted former U.S. Attorney Joyce White Vance.

“The efforts to influence and/or even intimidate witnesses has always stuck out for me too,” agreed MSNBC legal analyst Lisa Rubin.


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Along with information on the payments and fundraising, the subpoena also seeks campaign communications about Dominion and Smartmatic, two voting technology companies that faced a torrent of false allegations accusing them of election fraud.

It also asks for information related to the Trump campaign’s fake elector scheme, which included more than 100 individuals in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico and Michigan.

The subpoena also asks for information related to any internal analysis of the former president’s fraud claims and documents related to the Jan. 6 rally on the Ellipse. The Jan. 6 committee found that numerous Trump officials found that there was no basis for his election fraud claims but he continued to push the lies on social media and at the rally preceding the deadly Capitol riot.

The report comes as the “grand jury has accelerated its activities in recent weeks, bringing in a rapid-fire series of witnesses, both high and low level,” according to the Post.

Some of the witnesses in recent weeks returned for their second appearance before the grand jury. One source familiar with one of the grand jury appearances told ABC News it was “far more intense than round one.”

US emissions rose in 2022. Here’s why that’s not as bad as it sounds

A new report from the Rhodium Group, a research firm that models greenhouse gas emissions, brings good news and bad news. First, the bad: U.S. emissions increased by just over 1 percent last year, making 2022 the second consecutive year of carbon emissions growth since the American economy began recovering from the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The good news is that there are signs that the U.S. economy is already starting to kick its addiction to planet-warming emissions, even before the implementation of the landmark clean energy law passed by Congress last year. Although carbon emissions grew in 2022, the 1.3 percent year-over-year growth was far smaller than the 6.2 percent surge in 2021. More significantly, emissions didn’t rise as fast as overall economic output, indicating that the U.S. economy became less carbon-intensive even as it roared back to life after the 2020 lockdowns. 

The main reason for this increasing divergence between economic growth and emissions growth is the decline of coal power, which is by far the most carbon-intensive form of electricity generation. As coal plants across the U.S. have shuttered over the past decade, natural gas plants have largely opened up to replace them. While natural gas is a fossil fuel, burning it produces around half the emissions that burning coal does.

Even more notably, the past two years have seen a dramatic surge in renewable energy. Carbon-free power generation grew 12 percent in 2022, according to Rhodium, driven by the breakneck adoption of solar and wind. This growth came in spite of the fact that new solar deployments actually slowed down in 2022 as the industry grappled with snarls in the supply chain for polysilicon and other critical materials used to make solar panels. An ongoing squabble over tariffs on Chinese solar materials may further hamper the industry.

Even so, the continued rollout of solar and wind facilities helped renewables overtake coal power in 2022, marking a major milestone in the energy transition. Solar, wind, and hydropower combined now account for around 22 percent of U.S. power generation, more than coal at 20 percent or nuclear at 19 percent, according to Rhodium. That hasn’t been the case in more than 60 years, ever since coal first surpassed hydropower.

The new data from Rhodium suggests that, despite the shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the U.S. is on a long-term path toward a cleaner grid. The drop in power-sector emissions last year doesn’t reflect the potential effect of the Inflation Reduction Act, the major climate law signed by President Biden last August, which provides extensive new tax credits for renewable energy as well as for electric vehicles and home energy efficiency. The first projects that benefit from the legislation aren’t expected to arrive until late 2023, but the subsidies will only further juice the current trend toward clean energy over the coming decade.

Last year, as the United States emerged from the first wave of the pandemic, emissions grew faster than the economy did, thanks to a temporary resurgence in cheap coal and a huge jump in the number of automobile trips taken nationwide. Carbon pollution from the transportation and building sectors continued to rise this year, according to Rhodium’s data, reflecting the continued dominance of internal-combustion vehicles and gas heat. It was only in the power sector that emissions fell year-over-year.

That’s in keeping with a long-term trend. U.S. emissions have fallen by 15.5 percent since their peak in 2005, largely thanks to the slow death of coal power. It was a market-driven shift toward gas and renewables, rather than any climate-focused public policy, that spurred this reduction, but now the Inflation Reduction Act should help extend these gains to other segments of the economy, pushing the U.S. closer to meeting the goals of the 2016 Paris climate accords, in which the world’s countries collectively pledged to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

The report from Rhodium notes that federal policy, “together with additional policies from leading states as well as action from private actors, can put the [Paris] target within reach—but all parties must act quickly.” The report also says that the U.S. may see emissions fall as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act as soon as this year — “if the government can fast-track implementation.”

The past 8 years were the hottest in recorded history

Last year was the fifth-warmest ever recorded in planetary history, scientists announced on Tuesday. The data reflects a wider warming trend driven by emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, with the past eight years being the warmest on record, and 2016 the hottest yet.

The record heat is hitting some parts of the globe harder than others. This past summer was the hottest ever recorded in Europe, where a series of punishing heat waves claimed more than 20,000 lives. Prolonged heat waves also swept through parts of Pakistan, northern India, and central and eastern China. 

“2022 was yet another year of climate extremes across Europe and globally,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which announced the findings. “These events highlight that we are already experiencing the devastating consequences of our warming world.”

The consequences range from extreme floods that submerged a third of Pakistan last August to the seemingly unending drought that has paralyzed swaths of east Africa, killing more than 7 million livestock and subjecting more than 8.5 million people to dire water shortages since the drought began in October 2020. A study from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute last year found that parts of the Arctic are warming up to seven times faster than the global average, causing sea ice to melt more rapidly than anticipated. Because this ice acts as an “air conditioning unit” for the planet, its depletion could accelerate current rates of warming. 

Meanwhile, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on the rise, increasing by approximately 2.1 parts per million last year, a rate similar to those of recent years. Atmospheric methane concentrations increased by 12 parts per billion, which is higher than average. Current concentrations of the two gasses are estimated to be the highest on record for the past 2 million years and 800,000 years, respectively, according to the report.

The warmer temperatures highlight the need for efforts to cut carbon emissions. In the United States, the Biden administration passed the country’s first major climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, in August. And yet the country’s carbon pollution keeps climbing: A report by the Rhodium Group on Tuesday found that U.S. emissions increased by just over one percent last year.

The observed warming trends persisted in 2022 despite three consecutive years of La Niña, a climate pattern marked by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean, which tends to suppress warming across the world. La Niña is expected to stick around through the first part of this year, before giving way to El Niño, the weather pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific, which cause hotter and drier conditions globally.

While it is difficult to predict the outcome of an El Niño in a given year, the absence of a La Niña cooling effect suggests that this year could be even hotter than the last.

It’s not just Trump: A sobering new report chronicles the extensive GOP war on democracy

In the days after the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021, there was widespread hope across Beltway media that the violence of that day would cool the Donald Trump-fueled Republican hostility towards democracy. Not only had the insurrection itself failed but so had all the other efforts Trump had made to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump and his allies had made over 200 overtures to state officials to throw out the results of the election, according to the final report of the House-appointed January 6 committee. Trump filed 62 lawsuits in an effort to have the results evacuated, only to see the effort totally fail. A strong majority of Americans are repulsed by Trump’s attacks on democracy. Four out of five Americans believe Trump acted “unethically or illegally” in trying to steal the 2020 election and nearly 70% say January 6 was a crisis point for the U.S. Under the circumstances, it was reasonable to expect the GOP to back down from these unpopular anti-democratic activities. 

However, the opposite happened in 2022. A new report from Democracy Docket chronicling the election litigation in 2022 shows the trend moving forward, with Republicans continuing to file large numbers of lawsuits geared toward making it harder for Americans to vote or for those votes to be counted. In 2022, there were 93 anti-voting lawsuits filed across the country — fairly steady from 2020, when there were 95 lawsuits aimed at making it harder to vote or attempting to throw out votes. And in one aspect, things are getting worse: In 2022, the flood of lawsuits spread throughout state and federal races, instead of being driven by Trump’s single-minded obsession with suing his way to victory in the 2020 presidential race. 


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As elections lawyer and Democracy Docket founder Marc Elias pointed out in his blog post on the report, there was nothing inevitable about this surge of Republican lawsuits attempting to disenfranchise voters. Trump wasn’t on the ticket or actively orchestrating another coup effort. Nor were there temporary changes to voting laws that were the pretext for so many lawsuits during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

There’s only one explanation, he argues, for this deluge: “Republicans found themselves unable to persuade a majority of the electorate to support their candidates. This sparked a conviction among many on the right that their best hope to win elections rested on restricting who can vote and shaping the electorate.”

Political scientist Scott Lemieux concurs. At his blog Lawyers, Guns & Money, Lemieux titled a recent post, “Republicans Trend Towards Authoritarianism Because What They Want To Do Is Massively Unpopular.” In it, he notes “the core goal shared by all factions of the Republican conference is to gut Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security” — all ideas that are notorious losers at the ballot box. Unable to persuade voters to back their policy preferences, he argues, Republicans are increasingly looking for ways to enact their agenda outside of democratic means. 

“Democracy is a methodology of government that has failed as miserably as socialism,” declared Republican John Fuller, a Montana state representative, in an op-ed for the Flathead Beacon in February last year. He goes on to compare American democracy to the “tyranny of King George” and argues that “democracy is two wolves and a sheep discussing what’s for dinner.”

Fuller is especially outspoken, but his views sit comfortably with the rest of the GOP. This week, Abe Streep at the New York Times Magazine takes a deep dive into how Montana politics have been captured, through Republican leadership, by Christian nationalists who wish to impose their views by fiat. The Republican governor, Greg Gianforte, belongs “to a church in Bozeman adhering to a literal interpretation of the Bible that rejects evolution and considers homosexuality a sin,” which hosts a men’s group that features readings about the alleged evils of anti-racism. 


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Montana is one state with a small population, but, Streep argues, it’s an important data point. Montana, he writes, “has long been one of the most politically independent states in the union,” with a Republican party that tended to exhibit a more libertarian bent. But in recent years, “the dominant voice is that of the far right.”

This has also been on display in the U.S. Congress, where the slim Republican majority in the House has embraced a slate of demands from the far right, many of which are geared toward stopping investigations that might reveal any conspiracies that helped lead to the events of January 6. House Republicans gutted the Office of Congressional Ethics, which had the power to look into accusations that Republican members of Congress were involved in Trump’s attempted coup. They’ve also started a subcommittee called “Weaponization of the Federal Government,” which Republicans say is necessary to stop federal law enforcement overreach. Critics, however, point out that the main targets appear to be any federal officials who are investigating the January 6 attacks and other right wing efforts to intimidate elected officials or government employees. 

Last week, supporters of defeated far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro rioted in Brazil, for the apparent purpose of overthrowing the current leftist president in favor of the hard-right Bolsonaro. While much of the media speaks only of how this attack “echoes” that of January 6, more in-depth reporting has exposed the many links between Trump and Bolsonaro. Trump’s former advisor Steve Bannon, for instance, was involved in both the “command center” efforts of the attempted Trump coup in 2020 and has reportedly been advising the Bolsonaro family for months. He and other Trump allies have been openly cheering on the Brazilian insurrection and spreading lies about a “stolen” election to justify it. 

In December, Trump posted a statement calling for the “termination” of the Constitution so he could be restored to the White House. Since then, most Republican leaders have been silent about Trump’s views while continuing to celebrate him. After winning the Speakership over the weekend, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., declared, “I do want to especially thank President Trump.” January 6 failed to get Trump the illegal hold on power he demanded, but he continues to dominate the Republican party. 

Brazil delivers an urgent message: Global democracy crisis isn’t going away

Despite the setback suffered by Republicans in the 2022 midterms, the global democracy crisis shows no signs of disappearing anytime soon. Although Donald Trump has been its most visible symbol, it is bigger than any one person, movement or nation.

Fake populist leaders, neofascists and authoritarians are adept at using the public’s grievances and pain — both real and imagined — as fuel for their political project of obtaining and keeping unlimited power. Such leaders created political personality cults built on manipulating the loneliness, anxiety, anger and collective emotional pathology below the surface of a nation or community.   

Ultimately, the people who are attracted to right-wing populism and other anti-democracy movements are seeking simple answers to complex problems in a world beset by forces of inequality, unfairness and injustice. Demagogic leaders promise to tame or wield those forces in a poorly-defined crusade for “justice” or “freedom” or simply for revenge. They can do no such thing, of course: As Trump so vividly illustrates, such leaders typically care only about themselves and perhaps their inner circle, and tend to view their followers with contempt.

People attracted to right-wing populism are seeking simple answers to complex problems in a world beset by inequality, unfairness and injustice. Demagogic leaders promise to tame those forces, or turn them toward revenge.

Fascist and authoritarian leaders thrive on telling ever-bigger lies, and attack the very nature of empirical reality through conspiracism, disinformation, and a vast echo chamber sustained by mass media and online social media. The global right also deploys religion to gain legitimacy, in many cases convincing their followers that a political cult leader is fulfilling prophecy and doing the work of God.

Much of the political class in the U.S. and other Western-style democracies continue to believe the rise of the far right can successfully be addressed through “responsible” public policy and “real” politics focused on material concerns or “kitchen-table issues,” especially through improving the lives of working-class people who may feel alienated and disenfranchised. This is an error in both assumptions and reasoning: Authoritarianism and fascism are revanchist projects based on emotions, myths and fantasies of recapturing an imaginary Golden Age when “tradition” ruled and “those people” — generally some type of Other in a given society — stayed in their place.

Appeals to reason, expertise or the actual lessons of history possess little value in this context. In fact, those things are viewed as effete nonsense by authoritarian leaders and their supporters, who perceive themselves (consciously or otherwise) as heirs to a supposedly uncorrupted libidinal masculine energy, focused on action and the body, rather than the intellect, empathy and mutually respectful discourse demanded by caring, contemplation and consensus politics.

In an interview with Salon last May, Andrew Viteritti, a senior member of the global forecasting team at the Economist Intelligence Unit, explained that the “average global score” of democracy had hit an all-time low in 2021, and that many nations previously designated by his team as “full democracies” had fallen into the category of “flawed democracies.” The number of authoritarian regimes around the world had increased, and every region of the globe had suffered a decline in its average democracy score — except for Eastern Europe, interestingly enough.

If Donald Trump is widely perceived as the leading figurehead of the global right, he is certainly not alone. If Trump’s political power and influence appear somewhat diminished two years after the Capitol attack of Jan. 6, 2021, it is also evident that Trumpism, as a movement, is bigger than he is.

We saw evidence of this on Jan. 8 of this year, when Brazil witnessed its own version of a right-wing populist coup, as thousands of supporters of recently-ousted President Jair Bolsonaro — sometimes called “the Trump of the Tropics” — invaded the capital city of Brasília and stormed the presidential palace, the Congress and the Supreme Court.

As New York Times columnist Vanessa Barbara writes, the resemblance between this ugly episode and the Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington was more than superficial: 

Hopefully, that was the last act for the bolsonaristas, extremist supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was once called the Trump of the Tropics. Yet, as with the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of former President Donald Trump, it is unclear if this is the end of a political movement or just the beginning of more division and chaos.

The new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, already faced a difficult challenge to unite his divided country, even without a bombastic former president just offstage and many of his supporters now prone to violence. Bringing those responsible for the attack to justice is a vital place to start.

Like Trump, Bolsonaro didn’t even pretend to observe the rituals of democracy, and did not attend Lula’s inauguration on Jan. 1. In fact he flew to the U.S. and spent the final days of his presidency in Florida. 

“Yet in the days since his defeat many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have camped outside military bases around the country,” writes Barbara, “figuring that the former president would pull together a last-minute plan. ‘We don’t know the date, we don’t know what will happen, we don’t know where, we only trust our president,'” one protester told her.


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Like Trump, Bolsonaro has made claims about a stolen election, and suggested that he and his followers were victims of some amorphous conspiracy. Many of Bolsonaro’s supporters have openly called for a military coup (as occurred in Brazil in the 1960s), an idea that Trump and some of his advisers at least briefly entertained. Some of Trump’s agents and allies, most notably Steve Bannon, Jason Miller and Tucker Carlson, eagerly supported and amplified (and perhaps incited) the coup attempt in Brazil.

At Foreign Policy, Catherine Osborne observes that the “parallels with events in the United States go beyond coincidence”:

Bolsonaro and his top advisors have met repeatedly with Trump and his cohort over the years, even after the former U.S. president left office. The Brazilian far-right leader has emphasized his links to evangelical churches, pro-gun movements, and the U.S.-founded Conservative Political Action Conference. The Washington Post reported in November 2022 that one such meeting between the Trump and Bolsonaro camps followed last October’s Brazilian election. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, a congressman, reportedly met with Trump and his aide Jason Miller in Florida and spoke with Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon by phone to “discuss next steps.” Eduardo was in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.

As a result, it had long been forecasted that Bolsonaro’s supporters might seek to execute some version of Jan. 6 in Brasília. What had been less clear was when and how such an event would play out—and what impact it might have on Lula’s transition.”

Images of the Brazilian insurrection of Jan. 8 shocked the world, and will no doubt serve as ammunition for online “meme warfare” and right-wing recruitment campaigns. But there is one important difference between the Brasília attack and the one two years ago on Capitol Hill: More than 1,500 of Bolsonaro’s supporters were rounded up and arrested by law enforcement. They were not simply allowed to go home after their rampage, as was nearly all of the Trump mob on Jan. 6.

It appears likely that ringleaders, financiers and other organizers of the attempted coup in Brazil will face prosecution. to this point, Trump and his co-conspirators have been shielded from any real consequences for their crimes against democracy and the rule of law. Indeed, the insurrectionists and their allies, including newly-elected House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, now control the House of Representatives.

In Brazil and most other “mature democracies”, the Republican fascist coup plotters and other insurrectionists would certainly (at the very least) not be allowed to remain in public office and more likely would be in prison or worse.

At the Atlantic, Yascha Mounk, a leading expert on populism and the global right, offers this warning:

[I]f one thing is consistent in the history of populism — not just in Brazil and the U.S., but also in such varied countries as Italy, Thailand, and Argentina — it is that populists can hold on to a significant presence in the political system even after they lose an election. In their lowest moments, they still usually retain the fervent support of a significant base of super fans. The moment their elected successors fail to deliver on their promises, experience an economic crisis, or are embroiled in a serious scandal, the populists are poised to surge back to power.

In that sense, the insurrection in Brazil — even though it was carried out by no more than a few thousand people and has been quickly suppressed — is a worrying omen for what may come via the ballot box. The country remains deeply divided. If Lula’s government stumbles, as well it could, Bolsonaro may return from his Floridian exile in triumph. And even if his hold over his supporters fades, some other demagogue could seize upon the latent mistrust in the political system that he stoked.

In another Atlantic article, Pulitzer-winning historian and journalist Anne Applebaum observes a pattern, beginning with Bolsonaro’s Trump-like refusal to attend the inauguration of his successor: 

He and his followers have been pursuing fictional claims in lawsuits in the Brazilian courts. They then chose January 8, almost exactly two years after the assault on the American capital, to stage their attack — a strange date in some ways, because the sitting president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has already been inaugurated, and the chaotic assault on Congress will not block him from exercising power. …

But the power of example works in other ways too. If Americans want to help Brazil defend its democracy and avoid sinking into chaos, and if we want to avoid #StoptheSteal movements proliferating in other democracies, then the path forward is clear. We need to prove conclusively both that these movements will fail — after all, the American version already did — and that their instigators, from the very top to the very bottom, pay a high price for that failure. The January 6 committee has just made a clear recommendation to the Justice Department, asking for a criminal case to be brought against Trump. The events in Brasília … should remind us that the department’s response to this demand will shape politics not only in the United States, but around the world.

We should also get ready to help the Brazilian government in its quest for justice. We should help it pursue financial ties, political relationships, or other connections between American and Brazilian insurrectionists, including links between Trump and Bolsonaro, if they are significant. We should do so not just for Brazil’s sake but for ours. Democratic revolutions have long been contagious. Now we know that antidemocratic revolutions can be too.

Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat, one of the world’s foremost experts on fascism and authoritarianism, notes in her Substack newsletter that both Bolsonaro and Trump had “invested in years-long relentless disinformation campaigns designed to discredit their country’s electoral systems in the public mind”:

Personality cults create images of the leader as infallible, and preparing followers to see any setback to their hero as the result of nefarious external forces rigging the system against him is part of preserving his competency in their eyes. Having someone or something to blame — President Joe Biden or Lula as it may be — also keeps the personality cult alive by letting followers avoid acknowledging that their hero is a loser.

Whether they blindly believe the lies fed to them or they know the truth and just want to keep their man in office, hard-core followers of an authoritarian simply won’t accept the new leader and the democratic political order he represents. The Texas GOP’s June 2022 resolution that Biden is not a legitimate president, but only an “acting” leader, is in this vein and a big red flag for American democracy. The trashing of the interiors of Brazilian Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Presidential Palace and lawmakers’ offices at the U.S. Capitol express a common desire to annihilate a political reality that does not include the cult leader at its helm.

Contrary to what many or perhaps most Americans would like to believe, the global fascist tide is more than one big hurricane that will sweep over the landscape and then disappear, after which we can rebuild, repair and prepare for the future. In fact, the forces of illiberalism will continue to cause mayhem well into the future. Vigilant and proactive defense of democracy, anywhere and everywhere, and freedom will be the only way to defeat the global right — and that outcome remains far in the future and will require much sacrifice and struggle.

What happens to your body after you quit drinking, according to experts

As often happens in the first month of the new year, vast numbers of Americans are attempting a “Dry January” or even “Damp January — ” a trendy challenge to abstain or moderate alcohol use. You can be sure that those who succeed will see an improvement in their health, as alcohol is not exactly known for its health benefits. But how profound will these changes be, and will they even be that significant? Indeed, while heavy drinkers might see quick shifts in mood and energy, moderate or light drinkers might be apt to wonder if much will be different in their lives at all.

Salon spoke to experts about the short-term health benefits of moderating one’s alcohol consumption for a month.  As it turns out, time actually does play a big role in determining health benefits.

The most noticeable effect ethanol has is on GABA receptors, which play a role in calming the nervous system. More GABA means a more sedating, relaxed effect.

“The long-term effects of Dry January depends on if the habit of not drinking or reduced alcohol consumption is maintained,” Dr. Rami Hashish, an injury expert and founder of the National Biomechanics Institute, told Salon. “If somebody drinks relatively a lot, and then stops for a month, and then goes right back to that same habit, then you may not necessarily see so many great benefits. It sounds nice, but science doesn’t really bear that out, that they’re going to see these huge benefits long-term, if they just stop some sort of action for a given month.”

In other words: alcohol abstinence is not unlike diet or exercise, in that finding a new routine for only a month probably won’t trigger life-altering changes.

That said, the effects of quitting alcohol can become noticeable quite quickly. A recent study in the journal Alcohol and Alcoholism found that for two-thirds of patients, cognitive abilities returned 18 days after detoxing from alcohol. This was a small study with just 32 subjects and it examined severe alcohol use disorder. Patients were also given thiamine, which may have helped improvement. More moderate drinkers may not experience the same extreme changes, but it’s still a window into how profound even a short stint without alcohol can be.

Ethanol, the technical term for the drug in booze, is a promiscuous molecule. That means it likes to interact with a lot of different receptors in the body; it sometimes likened to a shotgun blast that doesn’t discriminate where it hits. Almost every organ system in the body is affected by alcohol, from digestion to immunity, but nothing is as influenced as the brain. And this has a cascading effect from the top down. “If something affects the brain, it affects every other part of the body,” Hashish says.

When alcohol enters the brain, it can gum up the way neurons and other cells communicate. Braincells send messages using chemicals called neurotransmitters. Ethanol can trigger the release of neurotransmitters like serotonin and dopamine, which are associated with feelings of mood and reward. But the most noticeable effect ethanol has is on GABA receptors, which play a role in calming the nervous system. More GABA means a more sedating, relaxed effect.

“When one is drunk, the brain struggles to produce long-term memories, which account for blackouts,” Dr. Sanam Hafeez, a neuropsychologist, founder and director of Comprehensive Consultation Psychological Services, told Salon in an email. “Alcohol also affects the temporal cortex, which is the area of the brain that makes new memories.” In contrast, quitting drinking can improve memory.

The moment you take a sip of beer, wine or whatever, your body recognizes ethanol as a toxin and tries to flush it out. It’s first absorbed through the stomach and small intestine, working its way through the bloodstream. An enzyme in the liver called ADH4, or alcohol dehydrogenase 4, breaks ethanol down, which eventually becomes carbon dioxide and water.

But there’s an intermittent stage between ethanol and its harmless byproducts, when the liver produces acetaldehyde, a known carcinogen that can have many toxic effects on the body. The more you drink, the more this byproduct builds up. The liver can only break it down further so fast, at a rate of about one drink per hour. Acetaldehyde is often implicated as the cause of hangovers.


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The more someone drinks, the more work their liver will have. This can lead to liver inflammation, also called hepatitis, which can result in scarring and a lower-functioning organ that can trigger more serious problems with the liver.

“The liver filters toxins in the body. Heavy drinking is toxic to your cells and can lead to cirrhosis, fatty liver disease and other issues,” Hafeez says. “When you abstain from alcohol, the liver can repair itself, and in some cases, regenerate.”

Of course, all of this depends on the frequency and volume of alcohol someone is consuming. Many people can responsibly manage the temporary side effects of alcohol and feel like the social and stress-relieving aspects outweigh the negative health effects. While a popular 2018 Lancet study concluded that there is “no safe level of alcohol consumption,” a sentiment recently echoed by the World Health Organization, many have expressed criticism of such strict abstinence.

“People generally see a pretty immediate reduction within a month,” Hashish says, “such as increased hydration, weight loss, reductions in blood pressure, better sleep… people may have better sex.”

A 2019 article in JAMA Internal Medicine claimed the Lancet research miscalculated the harms associated with alcohol, using biased overestimates that overlooked underreported drinking. Problematic drinking gets far more medical attention, at least ideally, so the majority of people who drink and aren’t experiencing harms may go uncounted.

Nonetheless, when you quit drinking for a while, it can have an immediate impact on your health — again, depending on how much alcohol is typically imbibed.

“Although a regular glass of red wine might be heart healthy, overindulging is bad for your heart and blood pressure,” Hafeez says. “Quitting or cutting back may lower triglycerides, which reduces the chances of heart failure.”

However, in severe alcohol use disorders, quitting cold turkey can be deadly, putting people at risk for fatal seizures. This is why Hafeez, Hashish and other experts recommend talking to a doctor about drinking habits and quitting. But if you do quit, it can change someone’s health relatively quickly.

“People generally see a pretty immediate reduction within a month,” Hashish says, “such as increased hydration, weight loss, reductions in blood pressure, better sleep… people may have better sex, they have greater immunity, so they may be able to heal better from injury or illness. So there’s a lot of benefits.”

Abstaining can also translate into increased energy, better concentration and memory and improved mood. It’s worth emphasizing that there’s nothing wrong with drinking alcohol. Humans do all kinds of activities that can be unhealthy, from eating sugar to sitting at a computer too long. The question here is one of moderation, assessing one’s health and being informed about what is happening when ingesting certain drugs like alcohol.

Trump Jr. lashes out at “The View” for calling his dad a “big liar”

In a video posted to his Rumble account, Donald Trump Jr. declared that the “whataboutism has begun” in the wake of the discovery of classified documents in a private office belonging to Joe Biden from when he was vice president.

Trump Jr. says the left is “going crazy” trying to explain how the revelations are different from the case involving classified documents found at his father’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

“We now apparently have read that the files pertain to Iran — kind of a big deal — and more importantly, Ukraine, where we’re literally funding a proxy war against nuclear Russia right now,” Trump Jr. said, adding that his father had the ability to declassify documents as president, whereas Biden lacked that ability as vice president — a debate over classification powers that some reports say are unclear.

Trump Jr. went on to slam “the geniuses on The View.”

“They said, ‘We all know Trump’s a big liar and thief … so it’s not a big jump to say that he obstructed and lied. We don’t think that Joe Biden is a liar and thief so we give him the benefit of the doubt.’ Really? All I know is, there’s been a lot of investigations of Trump and so far, they’ve found squat. When Trump had this, the FBI hostage rescue team raided him. Now, nothing happens to Joe Biden.”

 

Biden aides find another batch of classified documents

President Joe Biden is about to face more questions about his handling of classified government documents.

NBC News’ Ken Dilanian reports that Biden aides have discovered “at least one additional batch of classified documents in a location separate from the Washington, D.C., office he used after leaving the Obama administration.”

This comes after CBS News reported earlier this week that Biden’s attorneys had found documents with classified markings on them at his office at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement that they subsequently sent to the National Archives.

Attorney General Merrick Garland subsequently assigned the U.S. attorney in Chicago to examine the documents Biden had in his office, and the FBI is also reportedly taking part in the investigation.

The revelations about Biden potentially mishandling classified material come as former President Donald Trump is also under investigation for not only bringing classified documents to his Mar-a-Lago resort, but also refusing to return them after he was served a lawful subpoena by the government.

Garland last year assigned Jack Smith as a special counsel to investigate both Trump’s potential mishandling of classified documents and his efforts to illegally remain in power despite having lost the 2020 presidential election.

A Massachusetts law protects the right to repair your own car. Automakers are suing

In 2013, long before there was a national campaign pressuring Big Tech to make it easier for people to fix their smartphones, Massachusetts passed a law explicitly giving consumers the right to repair their cars. Now, that right is under threat. A pending federal lawsuit could decide its fate — and in so doing, transform the auto repair landscape at a time when cars increasingly resemble giant computers.

The lawsuit in question, Alliance for Automotive Innovation v. Maura Healey, concerns a ballot measure Bay State voters overwhelmingly approved in 2020. That so-called Data Access Law requires that automakers grant car owners and independent repair shops access to vehicle “telematics,” data that cars transmit wirelessly to the manufacturer. Proponents of the law say giving owners control over this data will help level the playing field for auto repair as the computerization and electrification of cars create new challenges for independent shops. Not doing so could give manufacturers a competitive advantage over repair, one that consumer advocates fear will lead to fewer options, higher prices, and ultimately, cars getting junked faster. 

That’s a problem not just for drivers’ pocketbooks, but for the climate. Manufacturing cars generates considerable emissions — and will generate even more as automakers continue to scale up electric vehicle manufacturing, which is particularly carbon intensive due the energy required to make the battery. In order to reap the full climate benefits of these vehicles, consumers need to drive them as long as possible. To do so, they need access to convenient, affordable repair options.

While the law was hailed a major victory for the right-to-repair movement when it passed at the ballot box, automakers — represented by an industry group called the Alliance for Automotive Innovation — immediately sued the state to block its implementation. The two sides have been duking it out in federal court ever since, with the judge overseeing the case delaying his ruling for more than a year. Nobody knows when a final determination will be made or which side will prevail. But for automakers and the auto repair business alike, the stakes are high.

“We’re at a juncture in the road,” Paul Roberts, founder of securepairs.org and editor of the Fight to Repair newsletter, told Grist. “We’re in the position of seeing independent auto repair go the way of TV and camera repair. Which is, they don’t exist anymore.”

Today’s independent auto repair industry owes its existence in large part to the auto right-to-repair law that Massachusetts passed in 2013. That law granted independent mechanics access to the same diagnostic and repair information manufacturers provide to their franchised dealerships through a standard in-car port also used for vehicle emissions testing. But it explicitly excluded telematic data.

That’s becoming a problem as cars become more computerized. Today, many auto parts contain chips that monitor their state of health and communicate with the rest of the vehicle; without the ability to wirelessly send commands to those parts, independent auto shops are finding themselves unable to diagnose problems and perform repairs. At the same time, newer cars will often beam data on their state of health directly back to the manufacturer. That manufacturer can then send the vehicle owner updates when it’s time for routine maintenance — along with a suggestion that they go to their nearest franchised dealership to get the job done.

“If my battery’s low, if I need an oil change, if my headlights or taillights are out … this is all diagnostic information that’s being transmitted back to manufacturers,” said Tom Tucker, the senior director for state affairs at the Auto Care Association, which represents the nationwide independent auto repair industry. “They’re then transmitting that information to franchised dealerships, which are then contacting the consumer. That’s great for industry, but it puts independents at a competitive disadvantage.”

The 2020 Data Access Law sought to remove manufacturers’ advantage by requiring that automakers make any mechanical data emanating from a car directly accessible to the owner and independent repair shops through a standard, open-access platform. 

Tucker’s organization, which helped craft the ballot initiative, hoped that automakers and the repair industry would eventually come to a national agreement over telematic data sharing, which is what happened after Massachusetts passed its first auto right-to-repair law in 2013. 

Instead, automakers took the state’s attorney general to court to challenge the validity of the ballot initiative, claiming that making this data more accessible would degrade vehicle cybersecurity. By giving car owners and independent repair shops access to telematics, carmakers claim, the Data Access Law runs afoul of federal safety regulations and the federal Motor Vehicle Safety Act. Carmakers also claim the law conflicts with the Clean Air Act, because it could make it easier for a car owner to disable emissions control systems on an engine. 

Former Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey (who took over as governor of the state in January) believes this is a load of malarkey. For the Data Access Law to conflict with federal laws, automakers must prove that there is no possible way both sets of laws can be met — which they haven’t done, Healey argues. In fact, an October 2021 investigation by her office found that one member of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, Subaru, was already using a stopgap measure to comply with the 2020 law — disabling all telematics systems in model year 2022 cars sold in Massachusetts, thereby ensuring that franchised dealerships and the manufacturer don’t have access to any information that independent shops lack. Subaru did so without violating any motor vehicle safety standards or the Clean Air Act. Further investigation revealed that carmaker Kia implemented a similar policy.

The Alliance’s argument that increasing access to telematic data makes hacking more likely rests on the notion that secrecy is the best way to keep systems secure. But many cybersecurity experts believe this premise — known as “security by obscurity” — is fundamentally flawed, says Kit Walsh, a senior staff attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a digital rights advocacy organization. When data systems data are kept secret from the public, Walsh says, “you don’t get the benefit of people smarter than you looking at them and finding vulnerabilities that you don’t find yourself.” Roberts of securepairs.org agrees, describing security by obscurity as a “false premise.”

“We’re seeing connected vehicle hacks left right and center,” Roberts said, citing a recently discovered bug in Sirius XM telematics systems that allowed hackers to remotely hijack cars from several major brands. “What does that say about [automakers’] process for vetting the security systems? It doesn’t say good things.”

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation and the state of Massachusetts presented their arguments at a trial in July 2021. While U.S. District Judge Douglas Woodlock was initially expected to issue a decision on the case shortly thereafter, he has repeatedly delayed his ruling for reasons ranging from new evidence to scheduling complications to potentially relevant Supreme Court rulings. Walsh suspects Woodlock is proceeding cautiously in order to “insulate himself for the inevitable appeal” from whichever side loses. Roberts agrees.

“I think he’s very mindful of the fact that this decision is not gonna be the end of the road,” Roberts said.

As the legal battle over car data rages on in Massachusetts, other states are weighing similar measures to safeguard independent auto repair. In Maine, a nearly identical vehicle telematics ballot measure is currently taking shape and tentatively slated to be put before voters later this year. And carmakers are already gearing up to fight it.

In response to a request for comment, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation shared a memo with Grist calling the Maine ballot initiative a “monetizable data grab from national aftermarket parts manufacturers” that creates a “clear cybersecurity risk.” The memo goes on to assert that neither the increased connectivity of cars nor the transition to electric vehicles will undermine the availability of repair data for independents.

But some mechanics who work on EVs feel differently. That emissions testing port that repair professionals are supposed to be able to use to access diagnostic and repair data? Most Teslas lack it, says Rich Benoit, who co-founded the Tesla-focused repair business Electrified Garage. Even when Teslas do have the port, Benoit says, “there is no useful information whatsoever” an independent mechanic can retrieve from it. “Which is why 99 percent of Teslas go back to Tesla for repair,” Benoit said.

The result, Benoit says, is Tesla owners are often quoted steep prices to replace batteries that might be fixable for much cheaper. Replacing those batteries early significantly reduces the environmental benefits of EVs, since mining the metals inside them generates pollution and carbon emissions. Tesla dismantled its public relations department in 2019 and no longer responds to journalists’ requests for comment.

Benoit sees Tesla’s success in controlling vehicle data and its repair ecosystem as a bellwether of what’s coming for car owners more broadly if the Data Access Law is struck down in court.

“If that’s the case, at this point, all new cars are gonna have to go back to the dealership,” Benoit told Grist. “With dealerships there’s no competition, they set prices, and they can kind of do whatever they want.”

Why does Austin Butler still talk like Elvis Presley?

Austin Butler took home a Golden Globe Tuesday night in the Best Actor in a Drama Motion Picture for his starring performance of Elvis Presley in Baz Lurhmann’s musical-drama biopic “Elvis.” But while some viewers celebrated Butler’s recent achievement, many were distracted during his acceptance speech.

It wasn’t so much what he said, but how he said it. Butler is still speaking in a distinct accent – namely the accent he had used in the movie to play the Mississippi-born Presley.

“My boy, my boy. Oh, man, all my words are leaving me. I am just so grateful right now,” Butler addressed the crowd, speaking in Elvis’ iconic southern drawl. “I’m in this room full of my heroes. Brad [Pitt], I love you. Quentin [Tarantino], I printed out the ‘Pulp Fiction’ script when I was 12. I cannot believe I’m here right now.”

Listen to the full acceptance speech:

Butler’s accent first made headlines three years ago, when the 31-year-old actor was preparing for and shooting the biopic. His day-to-day voice soon melded with Elvis’ and frequently came up in interviews, even a recent “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig.

“I don’t think I sound like him still, but I guess I must because I hear it a lot,” Butler told People backstage after his speech. “I often liken it to when somebody lives in another country for a long time, and I had three years where that was my only focus in life, so I’m sure there’s just pieces of my DNA that will always be linked in that way.”

In a 2022 interview with GQ, the actor revealed that his intense commitment to his role ultimately left him feeling out of touch with his own identity: “You can lose touch with who you actually are. And I definitely had that when I finished Elvis – not knowing who I was.”

He reiterated his sentiments while speaking to ELLE Australia in June, saying he’s not surprised that fans are talking about his change in accent, considering that he “didn’t do anything else for two years [apart from working on ‘Elvis’]” which is “such a large chunk of life.”  

Butler continued, “Because I’m a shy person, and when I know that there’s bits of Elvis that I’d have to click into in order to go out on stage and be in front of a ton of people, being surrounded by his name everywhere, there’s triggers. You spend so much time obsessing about one thing, and it really is like muscular habits, your mouth can change. It’s pretty amazing. I know that I’m constantly changing. Check in with me in 20 years when I’ve played a lot of roles. Who knows what I’ll sound like!”

Picking up accents

Adopting accents is not a new phenomenon, but it’s certainly surprising when it’s so marked, as with a public figure like Butler, whose accent as a child was distinctly not Elvis-like at all. Per Bustle, mimicking people’s accents is actually more common than we think. One misconception is, “It stems from a kind of poorly founded personal identity; if you’re an innate people-pleaser or intent on blending in, the thinking goes, you’re more likely to want to fit in with a crowd as much as possible, and that extends to accents.” But actually, mimicking accents is “a pretty strong part of human interaction — but it may only show up if you spend a prolonged period with people with radically different accents.”

There’s also “the chameleon effect,” which states that “by imitating another person’s gestures, body position, head tilt, voice modulation and, yep, accent, you’re trying to make yourself look more like them, and hopefully seem less threatening and more likeable.”


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In Butler’s case, his Elvis accent seems to be a consequence of intense years of method acting. During an interview on the red carpet at the Golden Globes, Butler told Laverne Cox that it’s hard for him to talk about his change in voice:

“It’s sort of like you’re a kid and you’re growing; that’s why you have to draw lines on the wall,” he said. “I can’t really reflect on it too much. It’s just this process that I don’t know the difference.”

Global economy 2023: Why there will still be plenty of pressure on food prices in the year ahead

Welcome to this special report on the food industry, the fourth instalment in our series on where the global economy is heading in 2023. It follows recent articles on inflation, energy and the cost of living.


Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the closely watched food price index of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reached its highest recorded level, stoking consumer prices across the world. In the U.K., for example, the prices of many everyday items increased way ahead of inflation, with bread and eggs both up 18% in the year to December and milk up 30%.

Such rises threatened food security, particularly in low and middle-income countries that rely heavily on Ukraine and Russia for grains and plant oils. That included many countries in Africa and Asia, which took 95% of Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2021 (roughly a tenth of the world supply).

Global food price inflation

Graph showing annual global food price inflation
Source: FAO.

This prompted much talk in the media about the potential for famine. Yet nearly a year after the invasion, the FAO food price index has returned to pre-invasion levels.

So why has pressure on prices reduced, and what are the prospects for the year ahead?

What happened in practice

You can’t look at food in isolation from COVID. Many people in the energy and food industries were either too ill to work or prevented from doing so because of pandemic restrictions, which squeezed supplies. When the world opened up and demand began to rise, food and energy prices went up, too.

This made people particularly vulnerable to events in Ukraine. Once the war began, food-price inflation peaked because the markets were uncertain about whether production and exports would be hit and how global supply chains would adapt.

Ukraine’s grain exports resumed after a U.N. deal was brokered in July to create a humanitarian corridor through the Black Sea. It also helped that the wheat harvest was larger than expected, even if large areas around the front line remain unharvested. Much of Ukraine’s corn has not been harvested either, for the additional reason that the drying process is energy intensive and farmers struggled to afford the raised prices. Overall, Ukraine’s grain exports were down in 2022 by about 30% year on year.

Russia is normally an even bigger exporter of wheat than Ukraine, supplying about 15% of world demand. It’s harder to see what has happened to these supplies because the Russians stopped providing data, but certainly Moscow’s policy of only dealing with “friendly” countries will have affected availability for many countries, too.

Countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian/Russian grains have been forced to shop elsewhere. For example, Yemen and Egypt have imported more grain from India and the EU, paying higher prices than usual.

Several additional pressures on farmers have further squeezed the global food supply. Fertilizer prices have rocketed in the past two years. Russia, an important global supplier, has been stockpiling for domestic use. Elsewhere, heightened energy prices have squeezed output. In the U.K., the largest nitrogen-fertilizer facility suspended production in 2022. Average fertilizer prices for U.K. farmers are now 18% higher than the winter before the Ukraine invasion and 66% higher than two years ago.

Extreme weather in summer 2022 was another problem, including heatwaves and drought in northern Europe, America and China, flooding in Pakistan and drought in Argentina. Irrigation has become more difficult in areas that depend on it, while in Europe drought conditions have reduced the supply of crops for animal feed and harvest of grass for silage. Meat and vegetable prices have both gone up as a result.

According to the U.N.’s World Food Programme, the overall effect of inflation, war and extreme weather has been that many people around the world have had their access to food restricted. The number of people facing severe food insecurity is up 20% since the war began.  

The outlook

Wholesale gas and oil prices have at least declined from their 2022 highs, which will benefit the entire food supply chain. This is one reason why inflation eased slightly in the autumn in many countries.

Oil and gas prices

Chart showing oil and gas prices
Brent crude = blue, UK natural gas = orange. Trading View

This will have taken some of the heat out of the global food price index. Cereals, meats and particularly vegetable oil prices all fell towards the end of the year, though sugar and dairy prices went in the opposite direction. Overall food price inflation remains historically high.

For the year ahead, the area of crops planted in Ukraine is estimated to be 17% down on 2022. Farmers in other countries are planting more wheat and maize to compensate, though the overall supply will still be pressured by higher farming costs and potentially more extreme weather.

Fertilizer prices will probably stay high as supplies remain restricted. Farmers in wealthier countries may keep applying normal quantities to their crops, like on previous periods of raised prices. But in poorer countries they may cut back, threatening yields and quality and exposing smallholder communities to greater food insecurity.

In sum, many staples will likely remain in tight supply in 2023, meaning price pressures continue. Retailers will be forced to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers. Governments will have to consider how to both support struggling consumers but also farmers to maximize what they produce.

At the international level, there needs to be an urgent fertilizer supply agreement to minimize disruptions, prioritizing access for vulnerable communities in developing countries. Longer term, farming needs to reduce its dependency on fertilizers by developing agricultural practices that optimize the cycling of nutrients.

This includes more efficient use of manures and extracting nutrients from sewage and using more legume crops in rotations to take advantage of the fact that they enhance nutrients in the soil. There also needs to be more precision farming techniques to target resources within fields to where they will be used most efficiently.

These practices are well adopted in western countries, but other parts of the world lag behind — particularly developing countries. Fertilizers will always be part of the farming system, but we’ll make food production more sustainable if we can get these things right.


This article is part of Global Economy 2023, our series about the challenges facing the world in the year ahead. You might also like our Global Economy Newsletter, which you can subscribe to here.

John Hammond, Professor of Crop Science, University of Reading and Yiorgos Gadanakis, Associate Professor of Agricultural Business Management, University of Reading

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Fossil fuel-backed lawmakers are freaking out over possible ban on gas stoves to protect children

Climate and public health advocates on Tuesday welcomed comments by a federal official teasing a potential ban on new gas stoves amid a growing body of peer-reviewed research warning that the appliances threaten the warming planet and human health.

In response to Bloomberg’s reporting Monday on a possible ban from U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), author and End Climate Silence founding director Genevieve Guenther tweeted that “this would be a wonderful development.”

“We have the technology for safer options, like electric stoves—it’s time to use them!”

Jose-Luis Jimenez, a University of Colorado Boulder chemistry professor, said in a series of tweets Tuesday that gas stoves “are terrible for indoor pollution” and a ban on the sale of new ones “would be a great win” for indoor air quality.

“Electric induction cooks as well as gas and is much more energy efficient,” he noted, suggesting that the latter appliances are still around because of “the pervasive influence” of the fossil fuel industry—which has aggressively campaigned against efforts to outlaw gas stoves at the state and local level.

“People are misinformed and easily manipulated by the powerful fossil fuel industry. And they are exposing their kids (which don’t have a choice) to toxic pollutants,” Jimenez said. “Gas stoves should be BANNED, just as asbestos or lead paint.”

The advocacy group Food & Water Watch said Tuesday that “we have the technology for safer options, like electric stoves—it’s time to use them!”

In a pair of tweets highlighting the dangers posed by the gas appliances, Greenpeace declared, “Turn the burners off.”

Bloomberg reported that the CPSC “plans to take action to address the pollution” from gas stoves and a ban is “on the table” given recent findings—including a study published last month in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health tying the appliances to 12.7% of childhood asthma across the United States.

“We knew gas stoves were bad. But how bad? For childhood asthma, exposure to gas stove pollution is similar to being exposed to secondhand smoke,” explained study co-author Brady Seals of the nonprofit RMI. “Nationally, over 12% of childhood asthma can be attributable to gas stove pollution. The good news? The risk is preventable and can be mitigated with electric stoves.”

The study points out that “the proportion of childhood asthma that could be theoretically prevented if gas stove use was not present… varied by state (Illinois = 21.1%; California = 20.1%; New York = 18.8%; Massachusetts = 15.4%; Pennsylvania = 13.5%).”

The CPSC is under pressure to act from not only researchers and campaigners but also some federal lawmakers, who—led by Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va.,—wrote to the commission chair last month that over a third of American households cook with gas stoves, which “emit high levels of pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).”

“These emissions can create a cumulative burden to households that are already more likely to face higher exposure to both indoor and outdoor air pollution,” they continued. “Statistics show that Black, Latino, and low-income households are more likely to experience disproportionate air pollution, either from being more likely to be located near a waste incinerator or coal ash site, or living in smaller homes with poor ventilation, malfunctioning appliances, mold, dust mites, secondhand smoke, lead dust, pests, and other maintenance deficiencies.”

The lawmakers stopped short of advocating for a ban, instead proposing the commission require that gas stoves be sold with range hoods and labels about exposure risks; issue mandatory performance standards; and launch a public education campaign.

However, in an interview with Bloomberg, Richard Trumka Jr., a CPSC commissioner, suggested a ban may be coming.

“This is a hidden hazard,” Trumka said. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”

According to the news outlet:

The Bethesda, Maryland-based Consumer Product Safety Commission, which has a staff of roughly 500, plans to open public comment on hazards posed by gas stoves later this winter. Besides barring the manufacture or import of gas stoves, options include setting standards on emissions from the appliances, Trumka said.

[…]

Trumka, who before joining the commission worked for a House committee in a role that included work on toxic heavy metals in baby food and the health hazards of e-cigarettes, said the commission could issue its proposal as soon as this year, though he conceded that would be “on the quick side.”

“There is this misconception that if you want to do fine-dining kind of cooking it has to be done on gas,” Trumka said. “It’s a carefully manicured myth.”

Trumka’s interview outraged some Republican lawmakers and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.,—a coal baron who suggested Tuesday that Congress may “need to reevaluate” the CPSC.

Noting Manchin’s response, the youth-led Sunrise Movement said that “it’d be cool if elected officials cared as much about our generation and families as they did about… their kitchen appliances.”

Faced with GOP outcry over his comments, Trumka stressed on Twitter that the commission “isn’t coming for anyone’s gas stoves” and “regulations apply to new products.”

Trumka’s Bloomberg interview echoed his remarks during a December webinar hosted by the U.S. PIRG Education Fund—when he said that the commission was expected to begin taking public comment on the issue in March, a related regulation could come as early as this year, and a gas stove ban is “a powerful tool in our tool belt and it’s a real possibility here.”

The CPSC said Tuesday in a statement to CNN that it has not proposed any regulatory action on gas stoves and future action would “involve a lengthy process.”

“Agency staff plans to start gathering data and perspectives from the public on potential hazards associated with gas stoves, and proposed solutions to those hazards later this year,” the CPSC said. “Commission staff also continues to work with voluntary standards organizations to examine gas stove emissions and address potential hazards.”

Despite opposition from the fossil fuel industry, appliance manufacturers, and GOP lawmakers—plus Manchin—there are some bans already in place or in the works across the country, as Inside Climate News detailed Tuesday:

Already, nearly 100 cities and counties across four states—California, Colorado, New York, and Washington—have adopted policies that restrict the use of gas appliances in buildings in some way. In 2021, New York City banned gas hookups in newly constructed buildings starting in 2027, following similar bans by other major cities such as San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose. Maryland’s largest county voted last month to ban gas appliances in most new buildings, also beginning in 2027. And in September, California regulators voted to phase out the sale of gas-fired furnaces and water heaters in the state by 2030.

Advocates also hope to make New York the first state in the nation to adopt a similar ban—a possibility that could gain more traction this year as federal dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act begin flowing to electrification projects around the country.

As Common Dreams reported earlier Tuesday, a climate action coalition applauded Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul for endorsing the All-Electric Building Act, saying that “each new building hooked to gas locks more families into overpaying to heat their homes, while padding the fossil fuel industry’s profit, torching our state, and endangering New Yorkers.”

This post has been updated with comment from the Sunrise Movement.

“Corsage” star Vicky Krieps says Austria’s Empress Elisabeth had a “darkness that attracted me”

Vicky Krieps is getting Oscar buzz for her sensational performance in “Corsage,” as Empress Elisabeth of Austria, aka “Sissy.” This gorgeous, historical drama written and directed by Marie Kreutzer, reimagines a year in the Empress’ life as she grapples with criticism and gossip that largely concerns her flirtations with her riding instructor, Bay Middleton (Colin Morgan), as well as her husband’s mistress. 

“I read her biography, and I could feel from what I was reading, there was something else between the lines. . . . She might have been sad or depressed.”

Krieps reveals layers about Elisabeth as she puts on a blank public face but is a very different person in private. Her efforts to navigate her relationship with her husband and children certainly test her patience. In contrast, her visit to a local mental hospital shows her compassion for a woman in restraints as well as a wounded soldier with whom she shares a cigarette in his bed. Whatever the situation, the Empress’ behavior runs very contrary to what is expected of her, which is what makes “Corsage,” and Kriep’s performance so appealing. 

Kreutzer’s film features fabulous period costumes and décor, but some scenes have a very contemporary and anachronistic spin, as when Kris Kristofferson’s “Help Me Make It Through the Night,” is played in one scene. 

The actress spoke with Salon about her portrayal of Empress Elisabeth of Austria and making “Corsage.”

What decision did you make about Elisabeth’s character and playing her? She is obviously flouting convention and expectation. How did you decide to portray her as she “indulges every whim without considering her position,” as one character remarks?

Emotionally, I knew what I was going for with the character for a long time. I proposed the idea to Marie [Kreutzer] to make a film about Sissy because when I was 15, I read her biography, and I could feel from what I was reading, there was something else between the lines. I would think, why was she doing this? She might have been sad or depressed. I was too young to understand, but I think intuitively, I always felt a certain darkness that attracted me. Emotionally, I felt close, and I didn’t feel the need to really construct the character.  

Elisabeth certainly felt despair in her life. There are concerns she can’t care for herself. You mentioned depression or sadness. Do you think there was an element of mental illness or madness? “Corsage” reminded me a bit of “Spencer” in that it was “trapped royalty.” Thoughts?

I think I let her come close to me. I let it become real, having myself speak through her as well. When I act, I think it’s important to make it relevant for the audience and to connect it to a real moment. As a woman, I can feel the same frustration, of course, and as an actress, I oftentimes feel frustrated because people want a certain image of me or they try to define me as a woman or, who I am. So, I feel trapped too sometimes in my role. The role of the actor, the role of the mother, the role of the wife, the role of the lover. Oftentimes, I feel I can’t let go and just let myself come out. I think that what you feel in these rebellious parts is Vicky rebelling against her role as the actor having to play the role of the Empress. 

What observations do you have about her vanity and the importance of look or image and the “duty to represent”? How did you create the regality of the character?

The vanity — you pointed out her madness or sickness. What interested me in telling her story, to talk about today, is the social vanity that we are all tapping into now with Instagram and having this over-awareness of our image. She had that at 15. She was said to be the most beautiful woman in Europe, and they handed out hand-painted portraits. She was very aware of her image. I think being so aware of your image can drive you mad. A certain madness can come if you are always being looked at, seen and commented on. That speaks to the audiences today. 

CorsageVicky Krieps in “Corsage” (IFC Films)

The costumes, the fencing, and the horseback riding are different ways of performing in various different situations. To me this is very much a film about “performance.”

“The vanity — you pointed out her madness or sickness.”

That’s very me and very personal. On one hand, I am a perfectionist. I love to learn something. I am very serious when work. I did tremendous preparation. I did my homework very well. I learned Hungarian, I did the horseback riding. I learned the fencing and ice swimming, which isn’t in the movie anymore, but every morning at 8:00 a.m., I went into the cold Danube with a trainer. I couldn’t believe what I was doing! I read all her books, all her poems, all her diaries as well as the diaries of her daughter and her ladies-in-waiting to really get as close as I can to anything like the reality. But knowing that there is no such thing as reality — we ourselves, don’t know who we are, so how can we ever know who someone else was.  This is the construction. At the same time, I was taking the piss out of my own construction, to make it about “play.” Otherwise, my performance becomes showing you how well I did my homework. I look like Sissy, don’t I? I find this not very interesting. I want something else to happen, so the audience feels something.

This is why I don’t like Meryl Streep. She’s all about mimicking, but that’s all her performance is. There’s no depth to it. I want to see, what you call “beyond the homework.”

I want the risk of failing. I was consciously letting go of some of the perfection to take the risk of having something new happen which the audience might not like — like when I don’t talk and am silent. I don’t explain her — now I’m angry because . . . or now I was sad because . . . Oftentimes, I was sad, but I wasn’t crying or showing the sadness. Or giving the finger or sticking out her tongue. It could have not worked. People could think why is she so cold or mean?

I love the scenes where she visits the hospital. She’s showing her compassion . . .

That is exactly the tricky part. We go to the mental hospital and show her interest in these women, which was real, but at the same time, she is looking at them like they are creatures in a zoo. She is giving them candies, which is not going to help them anyway. She’s caring and compassionate, and real, but, at the same time, she is superficial and cold. That’s who she was. We humans are so complex all the time. I wanted to take the risk of showing a woman who is complex before anything else. 

This is how I was rebelling as an actress. When we were shooting, I should be focused on the camera and how I look, but I was concentrating on a spider on my hand. And suddenly it went up the sleeve of my dress and into my corset. I started giggling. Colin [Morgan, her costar] was asking me what was happening. I said, “There’s a spider in my corset!”

Elisabeth has a very interesting relationship with her husband. Who do you think has the power and control in that relationship, and how does she wield it? 

If it was about winning and losing, neither of them were really winning, but unfortunately, he’s perceived as winning. I remember playing it, thinking, I never felt like I’m winning. I could surprise him, I could feel the moment I make love to him, and through my love, which is genuine and unexpected, I am much stronger than him. But I never felt I was winning. I only felt I’m escaping, maybe, if anything. 

What about her relationship with her children. How did you see her role as a mother? That was also really fraught.

I am a mother myself. It’s a personal experience of mine. I am a child; I never grew up and I play all the time. I do get looks from my daughter sometimes, where she’s the mother and I’m the child. It was something really heartfelt to me, and sometimes painful because I was reminded of my own life. But in my own life, luckily, I do have the dialogue with my child. Someone like Elisabeth was never allowed to have that with her child. My relationship is ever-changing and shifting and growing. It is a beautiful relationship. But it was painful to know that Elisabeth was never granted the dialogue with her children that she wanted. She was trying to break the rules of how you are supposed to live with children. You are supposed to see them not at all, unless on special occasions. They are raised by other people. She didn’t want that. She had her first child at 16. She wanted to raise them and play with them, and they took them from her. That’s really when her heart broke. One child died. So, where does madness or coldness come from? It comes from that, but the movie never explains that she’s cold because she lost her child. 

Yes, I like the ambiguity. It’s not just one trauma. It’s a combination of things. She was a woman of power who still had little power.

The tone of the film is sincere and yet cheeky. I love the use of contemporary music and anachronism and the ending. Why do you think this was an appropriate approach for telling this story? 

I think our movie is a good example of teamwork. Everything happened as we were working. That’s how creatives should work. Be open to what comes your way. I adapted my performance to what was happening. I could feel the frustration. It wasn’t [saying,] “We’re going to make this crazy cheeky movie.” The director was not planning a modern take. But it happened as we were going along. Everything felt heavy, and she wanted something lighter. With the furniture, people told her, “You cannot use this chair, it’s made 10 years later.” And she said, “Why can’t I make the movie I want to make? Why can’t I show the chair I want to show?” More elements come in. The whole team was taking pleasure in it. People found amazing chairs. Everyone joined in. They got the tone of breaking out of a corset of how to make a movie or tell a story that is period.


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Elisabeth has a great line about gossip in the film, “The lion doesn’t lose sleep over the opinions of the sheep.” What are your thoughts about how “celebrity”— be it an actress or a politician – is treated in the media, especially in this age of social media?

Exactly! To me, that’s what I care about — the message that we should be aware of what happens if we listen to the sheep. We should be aware of what happens if you have an oversized image of yourself. Because we then become slaves to opinions of sheep and to our own image. How many likes we get on Instagram. If someone tells me that I’m beautiful or not beautiful. Then we become unfree, and we lose everything that makes humans interesting and alive — our own sense of identity. The whole world is interesting because each one of us has different experiences and is a different person. That’s what makes it interesting. We will lose it if we try to please and be liked by everyone.

“Corsage” is currently in theaters.

Republicans in George Santos’ home district call on him to resign — and expose another lie

The Nassau County Republican Party on Wednesday called for the resignation of Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., for lying about his personal life and questions surrounding his finances. 

After a New York Times report uncovered that Santos fabricated parts of his educational and professional background, other watchdog groups like the Campaign Legal Center began to look into his personal expenses and the true sources of his campaign money. Santos also repeatedly lied about his religion and ethnicity and his parent’s relationship to the Holocaust. 

Nassau County GOP Chairman Joseph G. Cairo at a Long Island news conference said that Santos’ campaign was made up “of deceit, lies and fabrication,” and accused him of deceiving voters.  

“Today, on behalf of the Nassau County Republican Committee, I’m calling for his immediate resignation,” Cairo said. “His lies were not mere fibs. He disgraced the House of Representatives, and we do not consider him one of our congress people. He’s not welcome here at Republican headquarters.”

Cairo revealed that Santos lied to him in a private meeting.

“[He] told me, I remember specifically, that he was into sports a little bit—that he was a star on the Baruch volleyball team and they had won the league championship,” Cairo said. “What can I tell ya?” 

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., also joined remotely from Washington D.C. to call for Santos to step down, as he violated the trust of “not only the voters, but people across America.”

D’Esposito added that he “will not associate with [Santos] in Congress and I will encourage other representatives in the House of Representatives to join me in rejecting him.”

Other Republican leaders said Santos is “not a normal person” and that he is an “out and out liar” who “needs help.”


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As soon as the news broke, Santos, who was in Washington, refused to step down.

“I will not,” he told reporters on Capitol Hill. He then stepped into an elevator and refused to answer any other questions.

In a tweet on Wednesday, Santos reaffirmed that he plans to stay in office. 

“I was elected to serve the people of #NY03 not the party & politicians, I remain committed to doing that and regret to hear that local officials refuse to work with my office to deliver results to keep our community safe and lower the cost of living,” he wrote. “I will NOT resign!”

The request amongst Republicans for Santos to step down is just another problem the GOP freshman has had to face in recent weeks. He is currently the subject of various inquiries from local and federal prosecutors about his financial dealings which could possibly lead to criminal charges. 

Santos also found himself at the center of two formal ethics complaints this week after two Democratic lawmakers filed a formal complaint before the House’s bipartisan Committee on Ethics to look into whether Santos broke the law when he filed his required financial disclosures late. The Federal Election Commission was also asked to investigate his campaign funding to see if he misrepresented his spending and hid the true source of his money. 

Law enforcement officials in Brazil have also announced that they are reviving fraud charges against Santos linked to a stolen checkbook in 2008. 

Top Republican leaders were hesitant to hold Santos accountable before, claiming they would handle questions about him “internally,” despite reports from CNBC and the Washington Times that someone from his campaign impersonated House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s chief of staff to get more money from donors. 

How to speak Na’vi: An interview with the creator of the alien tongue in “Avatar”

Though Americans have a reputation for being averse to foreign-language movies and television, that appears to be changing: consider South Korea's recent successes with "Parasite," which won the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2020, and "Squid Game," the megahit Netflix series.

Now, Americans are headed out in droves to see a movie that has numerous scenes filmed in a foreign tongue — albeit one that has no native speakers.

The film I refer to, of course, is "Avatar: The Way of Water"; the foreign language in question is Na'vi, the native tongue of the fictional aliens on the planet of Pandora. Dr. Paul Frommer, a linguistics consultant and communications professor from the University of Southern California, was hired to create the alien language spoken in the film series, and that puts him in the unique position of being able to critique actors' performances of the novel tongue.

"Zoë [Saldaña] brings tremendous passion and conviction to her Na'vi," Frommer opined. Frommer was particularly impressed with the star's hit rendition of the song "The Songcord," co-written and produced by composer Simon Franglen, in which her character sings the Na'vi language at emotional moments in the movie. "She makes you feel it's really her native language."

Millions of people have seen one or both of the "Avatar" movies, which include 2009's "Avatar" and the newly-released "Avatar: The Way of Water." The latter is still on top of the global box office a month after its premiere, with both movies ranking among the 10 highest grossing films ever made. While numerous young children and aspiring philologists alike have engaged in the hobby of inventing languages, Frommer is in the unique position of having his heard by millions of people around the world.

"Since the Na'vi only have four digits on each hand rather than five, it occurred to me that they would probably have an octal rather than a decimal counting system. So I mentioned that to [director and writer] James Cameron and he said, 'Yeah, absolutely!'"

Using the term "gatekeeper" when describing his role choosing which proposed words are deemed official in the Na'vi lexicon, Frommer is clearly proud of his conlang ("constructed language"), and he has very good reason. Despite existing for a fictional world, Na'vi sounds real because it is real — so much so that it has bustling fan communities devoted to speaking it. There are even Na'vi dialects, with Frommer singling out actor Robert Okumu (who plays the chief of the Ta'unui sea clan in "Avatar: The Way of Water") for having "nailed his dialog in Reef Na'vi with great accuracy."

Regardless of one's opinion on the film's other elements, the presence of an authentic Na'vi language throughout "Avatar: The Way of Water" makes the movie vivid and memorable in at least one way that is not true for most blockbusters. It gives the film an additional layer through which it can be processed and enjoyed. For this tifkifpamrelsiyu (my attempt to create a Na'vi neologism for "science writer"; etymology is explained in the interview transcript), trying to parse through the Na'vi dialects in the movie was a fun project to undertake while diving into "Avatar: The Way of Water." The Na'vi language is actually something any human can learn, and many have — some Na'vi language hobbyists even write to Frommer in the invented tongue. "They're an intelligent, warm, and supportive group of people from all walks of life, and some of them have become my close personal friends," Frommer declared.

I asked Frommer what he thought of a comment from the late film critic Roger Ebert, who loved the 2009 "Avatar" movie but in his review scoffed at the notion that any human could speak Na'vi:

"As for Na'vi not being able to be spoken by humans, well, the last time I checked, the people who have embraced the language and use it for genuine communication — not only for day-to-day oral and written conversation but also for composing wonderful stories and poetry — are distinctly human."


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Salon spoke to Frommer about how to create a convincing constructed language, the fan community of Na'vi speakers, and how he came up with idioms and metaphors for a fictional culture. Our interview has been edited for clarity and content.

What are your thoughts on the attitudes conveyed in "Avatar: The Way of Water" toward a common human problem — namely, struggling to learn a language?

Probably the best example from "The Way of Water" comes at the very beginning, when the film makes the transition from Na'vi to English. Jake says something like — I can't quote exactly, but along the lines of that he had heard and used the Na'vi language so much that it became as natural to him as English. At that point, you hear the Na'vi switch to English: The presumption is that they're actually speaking Na'vi, but we hear it as English. Of course, this avoids having the entire movie in subtitles, yet I think this is also a subtle reminder that the best way to learn the language is to be in the environment and to be exposed to the language. When you actually use the language for genuine communication, that's when it seems to sink in.

"There are a lot of supportive people out there who will mentor beginners who want to learn the language."

There are different language learning styles. There are some people who you could characterize as analytical. They like to study charts and diagrams and learn grammar rules and so on. There are other people who don't enjoy that kind of stuff. That doesn't mean that they can't learn the language. I've become interested in the work of a linguist, who actually is a close friend of mine, Dr. Stephen Krashen [emeritus professor of education at the University of Southern California]. He argues that the best way to learn the language is to be in the environment, to be exposed to the language and actually use the language for genuine communication. That is when it seems to sink in. He also distinguishes between "language learning" and "language acquisition." Learning is what people typically do in a classroom. You're presented with grammatical rules, you have listed a vocabulary, and so on and so forth. "Translate these sentences."

Acquisition refers to the natural process that every normal human being goes through when they're growing up in some linguistic environment, and they seemingly absorb the language by osmosis. No one sits down with a three-year-old kid and says, "Okay, now we're going to go over the past tense and notice that in English the regular past tense has three different pronunciations." By being in the environment, hearing the language and most important, understanding the language, somehow or other something kicks in in the brain called the LAD — the language acquisition device. Traditionally it has been hypothesized that this device somehow or other turns off around the age of puberty. So prior to the age of puberty, there is a neurological device for picking up languages. If as a child you grew up in Beijing, then you will speak Mandarin that is totally indistinguishable from someone who was born there. Stephen Krashen's hypothesis is that acquisition can take place long after puberty. In fact, adults can acquire a language at any age. So he makes a distinction between "learning" and "acquisition."

Based on my research into the "Avatar" fan community, it seems there is a lot of acquisition-style learning in action. It seems like this language, because of the popularity of the films and the language itself, has developed a life of its own through that process.

A wonderful thing about the Na'vi language community, which has brought me personally tremendous satisfaction, is that there are a lot of supportive people out there who will mentor beginners who want to learn the language. A lot of them! In fact I made a presentation a couple years ago about this very subject — acquisition versus learning — and a lot of them are trying to incorporate those ideas into their language teaching, which of course is totally voluntary and totally uncompensated for. They do it just for the love of it. They're coming up with little stories, simple stories in simple language that beginners can understand. They're coming up with little dialogues, which are simple and which relate to real communication situations. And so that's been very useful as opposed to the kind of learning where you say, "Okay, let's look at this verb paradigm right now." Which is not to say that you shouldn't do that as a supplement, but the primary methodology that people are beginning to look at now is [linguist Stephen] Krashen's key idea of comprehensible input. You have to be in a situation where you're hearing messages and understanding them. It's then, the contention is, that language acquisition can take place.

As I re-watched "Avatar" and watched "Avatar: The Way of Water" for this article, I kept thinking of how analogies, idioms and metaphors creep into language, and pose a translation problem. For instance, if I said "like the serpent tempted Adam and Eve" to an alien, they wouldn't know that I was referring to a story from the Book of Genesis even after I translated the phrase for them. Does any of that factor into how you developed the Na'vi language?

"One of the things that I've enjoyed the most about developing the language is coming up with idioms and proverbs and similes and metaphors, which would naturally develop based on their environment, based on their social structure. "

You know, if you were communicating with an indigenous tribe in the Amazon rainforest and you said, "like the serpent tempted Adam and Eve," they would have no idea what you're talking about in the exact same way, right? I agree that these cultural references are extremely important. What is interesting about the Na'vi is that they are really very humanlike, right? If you compare them as extraterrestrials to, for example, the aliens from [the 2016 science fiction movie] "Arrival," you have a very, very different situation there. You have some truly alien beings, and we don't know what their thought processes are. We don't know what their environment is like. We don't know what's important for them. But it's not the case for the Na'vi because they are very human-like. They have presumably the same emotions that we do: Love, hate, fear, jealousy, that's all there. Their environment is different, but in certain ways similar. Their social structure is not all that different. Their families are very important to them. So what I'm saying is that, although the cultures are obviously different, they're not crucially different.

That being said, there are certainly things in their culture and in their environment which influence the language. One of the things that I've enjoyed the most about developing the language is coming up with idioms and proverbs and similes and metaphors, which would naturally develop based on their environment, based on their social structure. For example, there is one idiom, Po keynven sìn ketse, which means "He steps on tails." Now what does "He steps on tails" mean? It means that this is a person who is socially awkward. There was a scene in the first movie where Jake is being introduced to the clan members and he's very awkwardly moving around. And in fact I think he steps on some tails. There is also an analogy, Na kenten mì kumpay, which literally means "like a fan lizard in gel." Now, if you remember from the first movie, there are these extraordinary animals that are called fan lizards. They're these lizard-like creatures who, if they're disturbed, will spread this beautiful magenta fan, which spans about a meter and just swirls around like a helicopter so it floats up into the air and escapes. So a fan lizard in gel would not be able to do what's natural to it, right? It wouldn't be able to spread its wings like the helicopter and twirl off. That refers to being in a situation where you're prevented from doing your best, from acting naturally.

I'm trying to imagine creating a language as analogous to cooking a dish. What ingredients do you need and is there a specific order in which you have to put things together?

I've kind of used that analogy myself. There are other ways of doing this, but I think most conlangers will begin with the phonetics and phonology, which is to say, let's determine what sounds are going to be in the language — and just as importantly, what sounds are not going to be in the language. It's a little bit like going to your spice rack and saying, "Okay, for this particular dish, what's a general palette that I want? What spices am I going to use? What spices am I not going to use?" If you take everything in your spice cabinet and throw it into the pot, you're going to have a mess. So the first thing I did was determine what sounds are in the language, what sounds are not in the language. 

"Once you have the word-building rules, then you want to think about, 'Okay, how do I put words together into phrases and sentences?'"

The assumption was that the Na'vi vocal mechanism is very similar to humans, and so the sounds that humans could produce are essentially the same sounds that the Na'vi produce. So I came up with a sound chart, so to speak, what the consonants are, what the vowels are. But you're still not finished with that module, so to speak, the phonetics-phonology module, because then you have to think about, "Okay, where do these sounds occur in a word? Can all these sounds occur at the end of the word, and when not?" The answer is no, only certain sounds, say only certain consonants, can occur at the end of the word. What sort of consonant clusters are allowable? Are there situations where one sound can change or must change into another? 

The answer is yes. So you have to go through all of those rules. That's the phonetics and phonology part. Then you typically move up to the next module, which is what linguists called morphology, which is word building. How do you put little meaningful bits and pieces together with root words to get your verbs? Are the verbs going to be inflected for tense, for number, for affect, all that stuff? You have to figure that out. What is the mechanism for, say, changing one part of speech into another? How do you change your verbs into nouns, for example?

Once you have the word-building rules, then you want to think about, "Okay, how do I put words together into phrases and sentences?" That can be pretty complex and very interesting. Then at that point, you can actually begin building your vocabulary and coming up with what is called the lexicon, which is the actual words in the language. Once you have that mechanism in place, then you think about the cultural aspect — you know, how does a language relate to the environment and the culture in which it's spoken. One example I've used very often is the fact that since the Na'vi only have four digits on each hand rather than five, it occurred to me that they would probably have an octal rather than a decimal counting system. So I mentioned that to [director and writer] James Cameron and he said, "Yeah, absolutely!"

Which means that for the Na'vi, the equivalent of a century would be 64 years.

You got it. And the word for that is zam, which means 64. But it's sort of parallel to the way we use 100.

I'm down to my last question, so I will throw in this frivolous personal one: What would the Na'vi word be for someone with my job, a "science journalist"?

Oh boy! We do have a word for "science"—tìftia kifkeyä, which literally means, "the study of the physical world." We also have a word for "writer"—pamrelsiyu. See, given the fact that in Na'vi culture I don't think there's anything like a journalist, we'd have to come up with something which would involve sort of reporting and writing.

How about one who records events and spreads information about them across far distances?

That would be a possibility. Then those are the sort of base elements we have. But then, of course, you want to come up with something a little more concise than that. And so it's very possible that you might take those elements and put them together and maybe lop off an ending here and lop off a beginning there and get something that doesn't have, you know, 17 syllables. That is something we're doing all the time. We're constantly expanding the vocabulary.